Tips for Tikay

[parker]

being from north herts everyone knows someone that knows lewis.

my uncles mother in law is friends with his step mum hows THAT for name dropping haha

i totally see where youre coming from. Its a hard life being young, gifted, a popstar girlfriend and having the world at your feet.

aparently when he was signing his tag heur deal they delivered a CRATE of every watch they make.... lord knows how much thats worth...

the richer you get the less you buy... he even gets free cars for petes sake.

and then he moves to swissland so he pays no tax... despite being sponsored by a bank haha

[hector62]

You have convinced me too so I have gone for a Mercedes car to win the GP- no podium nonsense for me.

[parker]

come on the gerries!

[action man]

my wifes best friend works for Mercedes. He never tells us anything about the team ever.

I know he was very excited about the last race and this one before he set off.

gimme an address ill sort it for ya mate

[smashedagain]

my wifes best friend works for Mercedes. He never tells us anything about the team ever.

I know he was very excited about the last race and this one before he set off.

gimme an address ill sort it for ya mate

I would assume his wife lives at the same address as Guy. How do you know you will be her type?

[tikay]

Update @ 7am Friday 20th April.

April invested - £2,750

April return - £2,119

Loss - £631

Forward invested (included in the £2,750) - £1,105.

April Profit EXCLUDING forward investments - +£474.

 
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=5

[tikay]

Daily Summary, 7am Friday 20th April

Bets galore.....

Some days nothing, other days loads. Earlier this week, we had a zero day, followed by a £900+ day.

Yesterday was busy, mainly small, & spread halway round the world. It's incred how bettig has changed with the advent of the internet, & online bookies.

We backed, yesterday, Aussie Rules in Fremantle or somewhere down there, Snooker in Yorkshire, F1 in Bahrain, & horse racing (for next month) in Newmarket.

As far as I know, all we have in action today - Barnet excepted - is the Aussie Rules thing, & Tighty's cricket bet.

Of Tighty's 4 selected County Games, there was no play at all in 2 of them, which is bad for the bet. In the other two, first innings scores (so far) of 93-6 & 125-5 were recorded.

The 2 games where no play took place were both in London, which had dreadful weather yesterday, but today has dawned bright & sunny, so there should be play today.

We had no PL Darts interest this week.

And tonight, Barnet are AWAY to 5th place Southend. We need Barnet to lose this. If they do, we then need EITHER or both of Macclesfield or Hereford to win tomorrow. That would put Barnet beneath either or both, on GD.  A lot of "ifs" there.
 

[tikay]

I’ve been thinking about Tighty’s cricket bet. He has, clearly & concisely, identified & explained a technical change which WILL mean less draws. So we have gone in with laying 4 of them @ 3.

Tighty's analysis of the rule change is definitely a short term (until the markets catch up) opportunity - but I think I executed it badly, or at the wrong price.

We laid all 4 @ 3, for £25, so we THREE of the four matches to end in a clear result for either side. It might happen, but thats unsustainable over time, I think. If 2 or more end up as draws, we lose a good bit. 4 draws (unlikely) would cost us £200.

Think it needs executing better next time, or maybe just executed @ better prices.

[c4ught]

being from north herts everyone knows someone that knows lewis.

my uncles mother in law is friends with his step mum hows THAT for name dropping haha

What is her name I might know her?  

The Schumacher bet I like but I feel we need to keep our fingers crossed that the Mercedes doesnt ruin the tyres in the warmer conditions.

[Graham C]

Barnet travel to Southend tonight.  Easy enough win for Southend do you think?

[TightEnd]

I’ve been thinking about Tighty’s cricket bet. He has, clearly & concisely, identified & explained a technical change which WILL mean less draws. So we have gone in with laying 4 of them @ 3.

Tighty's analysis of the rule change is definitely a short term (until the markets catch up) opportunity - but I think I executed it badly, or at the wrong price.

We laid all 4 @ 3, for £25, so we THREE of the four matches to end in a clear result for either side. It might happen, but thats unsustainable over time, I think. If 2 or more end up as draws, we lose a good bit. 4 draws (unlikely) would cost us £200.

Think it needs executing better next time, or maybe just executed @ better prices.

These are interesting questions. The problem being that you might pick one of the two sides to be favourite before the match, then they lose the toss and get put in on a lively one, end up 89-6 and you are struggling. Hence the idea to lay the draw and want either team to win

I also wonder if there is a more sophisticated way of exploiting this strucural change

[TightEnd]

On the F1, where I follow closely and have a connection or two

Don't mind the Rosberg bet. The one lap pace of the Mercedes is very strong, and he's better value at the price than his major competitor Hamilton

On Schumacher I regard the price as thinn-ish. Why? Well the major uncertainty is the potential tyre degradation on the Mercedes at the 40c temperatures in Bahrain, a problem that didn't exist in Shanghai where it was cooler.

To my mind Button is a clear favourite to win the race..he seems to have a real edge in managing his tyres in tough conditions. He might only qualify 4th-5th as his weakness is the very thing that gives him a race edge..he struggles to get the tyres up quickly to do a very fast one off lap....

Will Schumacher/Mercedes be able to keep pace with the McLaren's in these temperatures? That's what a Schumacher podium bet relies on



 





 

[bobby1]

I’ve been thinking about Tighty’s cricket bet. He has, clearly & concisely, identified & explained a technical change which WILL mean less draws. So we have gone in with laying 4 of them @ 3.

Tighty's analysis of the rule change is definitely a short term (until the markets catch up) opportunity - but I think I executed it badly, or at the wrong price.

We laid all 4 @ 3, for £25, so we THREE of the four matches to end in a clear result for either side. It might happen, but thats unsustainable over time, I think. If 2 or more end up as draws, we lose a good bit. 4 draws (unlikely) would cost us £200.

Think it needs executing better next time, or maybe just executed @ better prices.

These are interesting questions. The problem being that you might pick one of the two sides to be favourite before the match, then they lose the toss and get put in on a lively one, end up 89-6 and you are struggling. Hence the idea to lay the draw and want either team to win

I also wonder if there is a more sophisticated way of exploiting this strucural change

The one prob with betting weather affected events is that if it goes your way you will prob bet 4 winners there, but if it goes totally against you then you prob have 4 losers. Its a little like NFL  in that respect when the weather is due to be very windy at a set of games. The totals will fall and if you bet them all and it's not as strong as forecast then you are wrong side on every bet, if it blows hard you are right side on every bet.

I guess the cricket ones have fallen sort of in between but I guess there is still time to get a result in the 2 games that didn't get much play?

[TightEnd]

I guess the cricket ones have fallen sort of in between but I guess there is still time to get a result in the 2 games that didn't get much play?

yes that's the plan. I was aware we wouldn't get 4 uninterrupted days, and think there will be enough play over 3 days to find results.

As we can see, the two that played are looking like result games, weather permitting

Perhaps the intelligent thing to do was suggest was one or two games not all four. Live and learn

[tikay]

I’ve been thinking about Tighty’s cricket bet. He has, clearly & concisely, identified & explained a technical change which WILL mean less draws. So we have gone in with laying 4 of them @ 3.

Tighty's analysis of the rule change is definitely a short term (until the markets catch up) opportunity - but I think I executed it badly, or at the wrong price.

We laid all 4 @ 3, for £25, so we THREE of the four matches to end in a clear result for either side. It might happen, but thats unsustainable over time, I think. If 2 or more end up as draws, we lose a good bit. 4 draws (unlikely) would cost us £200.

Think it needs executing better next time, or maybe just executed @ better prices.

These are interesting questions. The problem being that you might pick one of the two sides to be favourite before the match, then they lose the toss and get put in on a lively one, end up 89-6 and you are struggling. Hence the idea to lay the draw and want either team to win

I also wonder if there is a more sophisticated way of exploiting this strucural change

The one prob with betting weather affected events is that if it goes your way you will prob bet 4 winners there, but if it goes totally against you then you prob have 4 losers. Its a little like NFL  in that respect when the weather is due to be very windy at a set of games. The totals will fall and if you bet them all and it's not as strong as forecast then you are wrong side on every bet, if it blows hard you are right side on every bet.

I guess the cricket ones have fallen sort of in between but I guess there is still time to get a result in the 2 games that didn't get much play?

I believe there is time for a result in all four, Phil, but I still think I executed the bet badly, or at least, there are more optimal ways to exploit the rule change.

Asking for a 75% success rate just to make a profit seems a bit much, with hindsight. I also gather that had I waited longer, I could have got a much better price. "The early bird misses the cream" as my # 2 cricket adviser told me.