Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I guess the cricket ones have fallen sort of in between but I guess there is still time to get a result in the 2 games that didn't get much play?

yes that's the plan. I was aware we wouldn't get 4 uninterrupted days, and think there will be enough play over 3 days to find results.

As we can see, the two that played are looking like result games, weather permitting

Perhaps the intelligent thing to do was suggest was one or two games not all four. Live and learn

I was deffo not critising you Tighty - the idea was brilliant. I just think it needed executing better, with hindsight. As you say, live & learn.

[bobby1]

I guess the cricket ones have fallen sort of in between but I guess there is still time to get a result in the 2 games that didn't get much play?

yes that's the plan. I was aware we wouldn't get 4 uninterrupted days, and think there will be enough play over 3 days to find results.

As we can see, the two that played are looking like result games, weather permitting

Perhaps the intelligent thing to do was suggest was one or two games not all four. Live and learn

I honestly think it is a good plan, the games that did start looked v tough for the batting teams, if they had got a bit of play in at the other 2 then they would  have got similar conditions for the bat.

I suppose the tricky thing to look at is was it ul that there was no play in two of the games, or was it lucky there was some play at two of the games.

There is a similar scenario in today's US golf, pre tourney the weather was due to get stormy at the very end/just after the second round. As it stands now it is likely to come much earlier and cause disruptions.

What that now means is that pre event, the players out late today might have got caught in the start of the storm but not be forced off the course, now it looks like they will get forced off the course and come back tomorrow morning. So the fact that the weather has got worse for them could actually be an advantage as they wont have to play in bad conditions as they would have if it had been windy but playable later today.

If I lay that half of the draw and they are disadvantaged then I am on the right side, If I lay them and they get to come back tomorrow morning to finish off their rounds before a different storm comes thru then I am in trouble because I will then have got all those as losers, the weather was actually worse than I thought it would be for them today, but its actually helped them.

In those circumstances I am either all right or all wrong

[redarmi]

Phil is right generally.  This would be a lot easier to deal with if we were actually betting on the draws as it is an easy nultiple but I think the best approach may still be some kind of multiple.  One approach I have used in the past is to have multiples in games that are geographically close where I think the weather will (or definitely won't) affect the game because it is related and this is a similar situation in that either this has an effect and every draw is underpriced or it isn't so it will affect every game equally.  On that basis I think the best approach is the one with the highest variance and that is 2*2*2*2 fourfolds incorporating all of the teams.  It is 64 bets though so obviously staking would need to be significantly smaller maybe 50p four folds or something in that region.  It is still not an ideal approach but I think it is probably the best one.

[TightEnd]

Middlesex 2-3 at Lords

Strauss out 2nd ball

 

[bobby1]

Middlesex 2-3 at Lords

Strauss out 2nd ball

 

lol, it might end up 'all right' if they do get enough play in, did the other game start?

[TightEnd]

Middlesex 2-3 at Lords

Strauss out 2nd ball

 

lol, it might end up 'all right' if they do get enough play in, did the other game start?

yes I Am at the Oval

33-0

Bright blue skies

The thing is Surrey score over the last 2 years at over 4 an over. So games press on quickly when they bat


We also have to think that with it being 16 pts for the win (24 max with bonus points) and 8pts for the draw (if a side scores 350= and takes 10 wickets in the first innings) that if need be declarations can be contrived and results forced

All depends on the wether over the weekend.

[smashedagain]

Middlesex 2-3 at Lords

Strauss out 2nd ball

 

lol, it might end up 'all right' if they do get enough play in, did the other game start?

yes I Am at the Oval

33-0

Bright blue skies

The thing is Surrey score over the last 2 years at over 4 an over. So games press on quickly when they bat


We also have to think that with it being 16 pts for the win (24 max with bonus points) and 8pts for the draw (if a side scores 350= and takes 10 wickets in the first innings) that if need be declarations can be contrived and results forced

All depends on the wether over the weekend.

Mbn at the oval. All necessary to re charge those batteries. I noticed Trumper was run down and poorly after the stress and effort required for the weekend

[MereNovice]

If you like the obscure ones Tony lets try this.

Aussie Rules this Saturday.

£90 Port Adelaide + 41 1/2 points v Collingwood( it is 5/6 which I wouldn't normally take but the line will be mid 30's soon) with either Stan, or Hills

As big fav's Collingwood are taking no chances with two of their best players and both will miss the game.

Thats a good shout I was coming on to suggest that. Collingwood will win but Port should beat the line.

Another one I like is Fremantle +18.5 at 5/6 against St Kilda with SkyBet. I'm fairly sure this was priced up on the assumption that Freo's best player Nat Fyfe would miss through injury but he has been named to start.

Freo are a better team than St Kilda imo but their record in Melbourne and Etihad Stadium in particular is awful however their new coach is Ross Lyon the former Saints coach who knows their game inside out.
Even when St Kilda were good a couple of years back they were never known for blowing teams out, they will probably shade this but I fancy Freo to beat the line.

First bounce is tomorrow at 10.50.

 

Thanks, we got £50 Fremantle @ 17/20 (+19.5) with BetVictor.


ON

St. Kilda v Fremantle
Fremantle +19.5
(Handicap - 2 way)
Odds:  17/20
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  92.50

If I understand these things correctly, St. Kilda are 45-39 up after 3 minutes of the 3rd quarter.
Looks like it's going to be close.

[MereNovice]

Fremantle 72-58 after 3 quarters - that's got to be good.

[MereNovice]

72-72 after 10:51 of the 4th quarter.
Ummmmmmm.

[henrik777]

72-73 just under 13 mins left.

Sandy

[henrik777]

Goalllllllllllllll Freemantle (6 points)

Sandy

[henrik777]

Goalllllllllllllll Freemantle (6 points)

Sandy

85-73

Looks over now.

7 mins left.

Sandy

[c4ught]

On the F1, where I follow closely and have a connection or two

Don't mind the Rosberg bet. The one lap pace of the Mercedes is very strong, and he's better value at the price than his major competitor Hamilton

On Schumacher I regard the price as thinn-ish. Why? Well the major uncertainty is the potential tyre degradation on the Mercedes at the 40c temperatures in Bahrain, a problem that didn't exist in Shanghai where it was cooler.

To my mind Button is a clear favourite to win the race..he seems to have a real edge in managing his tyres in tough conditions. He might only qualify 4th-5th as his weakness is the very thing that gives him a race edge..he struggles to get the tyres up quickly to do a very fast one off lap....

Will Schumacher/Mercedes be able to keep pace with the McLaren's in these temperatures? That's what a Schumacher podium bet relies on

Mercedes dont need to keep pace though! Schumacher just has to be faster than his team mate and the Red Bulls. The Red Bull isnt a slouch during the race.

[TightEnd]

Lunch day 2

Lancashire: 172-7 (87.0 overs)
Warwickshire: Yet to bat
Lunch


Middlesex: 57-4 (24.0 overs)
Durham: Yet to bat
Lunch


Nottinghamshire: 162 (56.4 overs)
Somerset: 12-0 (5.0 overs)
Lunch


Surrey: 60-4 (20.1 overs)
Worcestershire: Yet to bat


At Trent Bridge Read scored 100 with the next highest score under 10!
Trescothick went in the fetlock and can't bat, yet

At the Oval we had hail. Big hail.