Tips for Tikay

[kinboshi]

As underminister of financial urination disposal, is a bet at 9/2 Audley "AForce" Harrison with Bet365 that is about to start (seemingly nudging past Betfair's price) tolerable?

No idea Simon, but if any boxing chaps are around, happy to take advice.

Remind me about that chess bet (or two, was it?) that you mentioned this morning, think it was for tomorrow. Won't do it tonight, am busy, but will have a look on the morrow.

DO NOT BET ON AUDLEY

^

Print that out and keep it

Was a cracking punch that he got hit with though.  That right cross was a beauty, and would have stopped a lot of heavyweights.

[Tal]

Radjabov was never going to finish mid-table, so just, as we say in these parts, "one a them, aynit"

No chess today (rest day in both of the major comps). Two prices interest me for tomorrow in St Petersburg: one I've spoken about before, being Anand at 13/1 to win with Black against a Kramnik firing on about 75% (not enough at this level). Kramnik got absolutely blasted off the board against the lowest rated player in the tournament the other day. Anand, conversely, managed to get everything pointing in the right direction and dispatched the Chinese champion, Ding Liren.

Draw seems inevitable but both players need a win to give themselves a chance in the comp and, in Kramnik's case, to salvage some rating points.


The other one is a less speculative punt. Whilst in the other tournament, in Switzerland, where Radjabov is...y'know, we can leave him be and reflect on British Number One, Michael Adams who plays the Armenian superstar Lev Aronian. 

The draw is marked up at 1.952, which is a big price and reflects that both players have drawn only 2 of their 5 games so far.

What interests me about this bet is that they've drawn the last four times they have played. Their styles seem to tessellate well and, although either could break through the other with Aronian's superior imagination and Adams's superior piece placement, the draw seems a little enticing.

Happy to take suggestions on this (short of where I can stick these bets). What I would typically do in this sort of betting situation is put, say, £10 on the draw and a fiver on the 13/1 shot. Is that a bad strategy generally or is it irrelevant as long as the bets are sound in their own right?

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess

Here was the post.

[scotty2hatty]

Only eighteen doge entered in The Scottish Greyhound Derby which is the third most prestigious event on the calendar after the English and Irish derbys.

Three heats tonight followed by a final next Saturday seems rather mundane for the first leg of the never yet achieved triple crown.

Pretty disappointed that it's only an 18 entry comp now. However, with £10k prize it has still got a good field.

If anyone wants something to back, try Paradise Martini at 16s - Ballymac Eske is 11/10 best price so we get decent each way value on others (top 3, quarter) - and Martini is 15/8 to win his heat and then we'd get 4/1 to finish in top 3 of final.

I can't believe tikay refused the enlightened spam-fodder that I offered him earlier.

The Shawfield card is live on ch.212 this evening.

Sigh, offered up two on the site I write for and the other qualifies for the final at 100/1. Martini missed the break.

[Tal]

As underminister of financial urination disposal, is a bet at 9/2 Audley "AForce" Harrison with Bet365 that is about to start (seemingly nudging past Betfair's price) tolerable?

No idea Simon, but if any boxing chaps are around, happy to take advice.

Remind me about that chess bet (or two, was it?) that you mentioned this morning, think it was for tomorrow. Won't do it tonight, am busy, but will have a look on the morrow.

DO NOT BET ON AUDLEY

^

Print that out and keep it

Was a cracking punch that he got hit with though.  That right cross was a beauty, and would have stopped a lot of heavyweights.

A few commentators in the States reckon this could be the answer to their heavyweight prayers. Harrison's stance has bigger gaps than Phil Tufnell's so it is still hard to judge him. Even Tyson Fury would be a yardstick.

[kinboshi]

As underminister of financial urination disposal, is a bet at 9/2 Audley "AForce" Harrison with Bet365 that is about to start (seemingly nudging past Betfair's price) tolerable?

No idea Simon, but if any boxing chaps are around, happy to take advice.

Remind me about that chess bet (or two, was it?) that you mentioned this morning, think it was for tomorrow. Won't do it tonight, am busy, but will have a look on the morrow.

DO NOT BET ON AUDLEY

^

Print that out and keep it

Was a cracking punch that he got hit with though.  That right cross was a beauty, and would have stopped a lot of heavyweights.

A few commentators in the States reckon this could be the answer to their heavyweight prayers. Harrison's stance has bigger gaps than Phil Tufnell's so it is still hard to judge him. Even Tyson Fury would be a yardstick.

Price summed it up well in the commentary booth.  More about Wilder's quality tonight than Audrey's lack of it. But he's still deluded.

[scotty2hatty]

Jaytee Hellcat about to go in this 3rd semi, one of our Derby dogs.

[tikay]

Radjabov was never going to finish mid-table, so just, as we say in these parts, "one a them, aynit"

No chess today (rest day in both of the major comps). Two prices interest me for tomorrow in St Petersburg: one I've spoken about before, being Anand at 13/1 to win with Black against a Kramnik firing on about 75% (not enough at this level). Kramnik got absolutely blasted off the board against the lowest rated player in the tournament the other day. Anand, conversely, managed to get everything pointing in the right direction and dispatched the Chinese champion, Ding Liren.

Draw seems inevitable but both players need a win to give themselves a chance in the comp and, in Kramnik's case, to salvage some rating points.


The other one is a less speculative punt. Whilst in the other tournament, in Switzerland, where Radjabov is...y'know, we can leave him be and reflect on British Number One, Michael Adams who plays the Armenian superstar Lev Aronian. 

The draw is marked up at 1.952, which is a big price and reflects that both players have drawn only 2 of their 5 games so far.

What interests me about this bet is that they've drawn the last four times they have played. Their styles seem to tessellate well and, although either could break through the other with Aronian's superior imagination and Adams's superior piece placement, the draw seems a little enticing.

Happy to take suggestions on this (short of where I can stick these bets). What I would typically do in this sort of betting situation is put, say, £10 on the draw and a fiver on the 13/1 shot. Is that a bad strategy generally or is it irrelevant as long as the bets are sound in their own right?

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess

Here was the post.

Lovely, ta.

[tikay]

Jaytee Hellcat about to go in this 3rd semi, one of our Derby dogs.

Ooh, ta, watching now.

[scotty2hatty]

Zero luck, but ran well enough.

[Tal]

Audley had this to say:

"I felt sharp and confident in there but obviously he caught me with a shot. I dropped to my knee but he kept punching. But I beat the count, I got up, and the ref called it off. But I was on one knee and he was still throwing punches and that wasn't fair.

"I took a knee, I had my senses about me. 100% I wanted to continue. If you're out for the count you're out, but I wasn't. I kept telling the referee I was still in the fight. I felt comfortable in there.

"He caught me, I took a knee and I was ready to carry on. The fight was not over, the fight was just starting."

Sounds like he was really unlucky.

This was the boxing equivalent of a bad beat story that starts "I Iimp under the gun with J6 suited..."

[scotty2hatty]

Here is who we are cheering on tonight at UFC 159, doesn't look like your typical MMA fighter.

[tikay]

Here is who we are cheering on tonight at UFC 159, doesn't look like your typical MMA fighter.

Chompy's twin.

[Marky147]

UFC 159: Jones vs. Sonnen tonight with an amazing card, can't wait.

Roy “Big Country” Nelson has won his last two fights, both by stoppage in the first round, and it is my opinion that he is set to do so again when he takes on Cheick Kongo. In fact, of his last 7 wins, 6 have came via first round stoppage which is a great statistic when you consider he is a strong 4/9 favourite to win outright.

Nelson does absorb a lot of punches but he has the chin to handle the big strikes, whilst the same cannot be said for Kongo who in recent fights has shown a tendency to get tagged by big strikes. Indeed his last loss lasted a little over two minutes when Mark Hunt was able to put stop him.

Nelson looks a great price to win in the first round at 23/10 with Paddy Power, it’s shorter elsewhere and might be shorter come fight time. Recommend £20.

One bet which is a touch more speculative is to back Jim Miller to win his fight in the first round at 6/1 with Paddy Power. Miller takes on the Strikeforce veteran Pat Healy who is riding a six fight winning streak but faces a big step-up in competition here at UFC 159.

This bet does not have the solid statistical backing of the previous bet, although Miller does have three UFC first round wins (of 11), and it is more based on Miller’s performance last time out where he displayed clean striking when blasting Joe Lauzon early and would have finished but for Lauzon’s big heart. Recommend £10.

What do you think about going KO/TKO in the Miller fight Scotty?

Just looking on PP and you can get 13/2 on Miller that way, obviously this takes submissions out, but it gives us an extra 2 rounds.

Problem is that because Miller is a subs guys really if he hurts someone he is likely to look for sub finish. His striking did look very nice last fight though.

Gotcha, I'll go mug punting  @ Sky then - Nelson R1 + Miller inside the distance 9/1

[scotty2hatty]

UFC 159: Jones vs. Sonnen tonight with an amazing card, can't wait.

Roy “Big Country” Nelson has won his last two fights, both by stoppage in the first round, and it is my opinion that he is set to do so again when he takes on Cheick Kongo. In fact, of his last 7 wins, 6 have came via first round stoppage which is a great statistic when you consider he is a strong 4/9 favourite to win outright.

Nelson does absorb a lot of punches but he has the chin to handle the big strikes, whilst the same cannot be said for Kongo who in recent fights has shown a tendency to get tagged by big strikes. Indeed his last loss lasted a little over two minutes when Mark Hunt was able to put stop him.

Nelson looks a great price to win in the first round at 23/10 with Paddy Power, it’s shorter elsewhere and might be shorter come fight time. Recommend £20.

One bet which is a touch more speculative is to back Jim Miller to win his fight in the first round at 6/1 with Paddy Power. Miller takes on the Strikeforce veteran Pat Healy who is riding a six fight winning streak but faces a big step-up in competition here at UFC 159.

This bet does not have the solid statistical backing of the previous bet, although Miller does have three UFC first round wins (of 11), and it is more based on Miller’s performance last time out where he displayed clean striking when blasting Joe Lauzon early and would have finished but for Lauzon’s big heart. Recommend £10.

What do you think about going KO/TKO in the Miller fight Scotty?

Just looking on PP and you can get 13/2 on Miller that way, obviously this takes submissions out, but it gives us an extra 2 rounds.

Problem is that because Miller is a subs guys really if he hurts someone he is likely to look for sub finish. His striking did look very nice last fight though.

Gotcha, I'll go mug punting  @ Sky then - Nelson R1 + Miller inside the distance 9/1

Anything else you like? I also tipped up Bisping decision and Davis decision but Nelson is my main bet.

[TL900]

Haralabos Voulgaris ‏@haralabob 55s

Free NBA playoff play for the followers i bet the LAC@MEM G total over 177

this guy is basketball god, bet it blind imo £55