Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Isn't the obvious bet to back Madrid at 1.57 then do the same bet again when the match kicks off to get an effective price of 2.14 ?

No need to thank me 

Well done Sharky, but as I understand it, conventional wisdom suggests that was NOT the optimal way to use a Free Bet.

It was certainly better than my efforts though - I never even got on.

[aaron1867]

Flicked between the football and snooker, was difficult but trump didn't half make things difficult for himself last four frames! Sets up a good session tomorrow, but life could have definitely been made easier.

[TightEnd]

Flicked between the football and snooker, was difficult but trump didn't half make things difficult for himself last four frames! Sets up a good session tomorrow, but life could have definitely been made easier.

He was 8-3 down, and out of it

Went for everything and it mostly came off. The run bad this afternoon turned and he had some luck too

Some of the recovery potting was sensational, but his control is not up to his highest standards

I hope he wins, but realistically neither are beating Ronnie

[Bazzaboy]

Isn't the obvious bet to back Madrid at 1.57 then do the same bet again when the match kicks off to get an effective price of 2.14 ?

Doesn't look at all obvious to me. 

Surely football free bets are like other free bets, and you should aim for a bigger price on the free portion?  This assumes BET365 aren't massively out of line on the other markets. 

It's not a free bet as such though. It's a £50 bet that you get refunded if it loses. If the bet is a winner you get your stake back unlike a normal free bet.

[horseplayer]

hope you did the possession bet again bazza?

[sharky_uk]

Isn't the obvious bet to back Madrid at 1.57 then do the same bet again when the match kicks off to get an effective price of 2.14 ?

No need to thank me 

Well done Sharky, but as I understand it, conventional wisdom suggests that was NOT the optimal way to use a Free Bet.

It was certainly better than my efforts though - I never even got on.

Would be interested to see the maths behind this.....

[Doobs]

Isn't the obvious bet to back Madrid at 1.57 then do the same bet again when the match kicks off to get an effective price of 2.14 ?

Doesn't look at all obvious to me. 

Surely football free bets are like other free bets, and you should aim for a bigger price on the free portion?  This assumes BET365 aren't massively out of line on the other markets. 

It's not a free bet as such though. It's a £50 bet that you get refunded if it loses. If the bet is a winner you get your stake back unlike a normal free bet.

Works out the same way though?  

Normal free bet return is zero if you lose, winnings less 50 if you win.

Here you get 50 if you lose, normal winnings if you win.

So effectively you have just added 50 to both sides, so normal free bet logic applies.

[TightEnd]

Isn't the obvious bet to back Madrid at 1.57 then do the same bet again when the match kicks off to get an effective price of 2.14 ?

No need to thank me 

Well done Sharky, but as I understand it, conventional wisdom suggests that was NOT the optimal way to use a Free Bet.

It was certainly better than my efforts though - I never even got on.

Would be interested to see the maths behind this.....

I asked during Cheltenham and Doobs kindly provided a rationale

If someone can find it I might split it out and sticky it top of this board, or in the opening post of the thread for easy access

[Doobs]

Can someone remind me why it is best, according to shrewd ones, to take free bet on a big outsider than nicking a bit on a good thing/odds on banker, please?

ty

I don't think this is entirely correct.  I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.

Say you had a £50 free bet.

If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67

If you back a 3/1 chance.  Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50

If you back a 10/1 chance.  Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is  0.09 x £500 = £45

If you back a 50/1 chance.  I think this is where the theory falls over.  A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125.  So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.

I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

Do not back each way, Camel explained this well yesterday.

Bump

[Tal]

Can't be as good as Ken Doherty's assessment of O'Sullivan:

"When Ronnie is in that form it's like trying to hold on to a racehorse by the shoelaces."

[TightEnd]

Dortmund's CEO Watzke tonight

"I walked out at 2-0. I went to the toilet, locked myself in covered my ears" !

[Tal]

Dortmund's CEO Watzke tonight

"I walked out at 2-0. I went to the toilet, locked myself in covered my ears" !

Can see why he recruited Klopp!

[rinswun]

There is an interesting tournament matchbet in the Wella Fargo Championship golf this week on SpreadEx. The bet pits Hunter Mahan against Lucas Glover with both men 10/11 and the tie 14s.

Glover is coming off a seasons best tie for 4th at the Zurich Open and goes to Quail Hollow boasting a previous win at the track (2011), a 2nd (2009), a 4th (2006) and a 10th (2004). He has missed just two cuts in 9 previous tries at the course.

Mahan, on the other hand, has missed two of his past three cuts with the one make seeing him not survive the round three cut at the Heritage to finish 91st. He has broken par just once in his last 8 rounds. His best finish at Quail Hollow is a tie for 12th in 2008 and he has failed to play the weekend on 4 of his 9 appearances.

The only mitigating factor I see against Glover here is the fact his wife is due to have a child on May 16th and he has intimated he would have no hesitations in walking off the course if she went into labour early. Seems like a stretch to eliminate a plus ev bet on that basis though.

I recommend £55 for Fred at 10/11 with SpreadEx fixed odds.

[MereNovice]

April 2013 Figures

Closed bets: 160
Amount wagered: £5,025.79
Profit/loss: -£1,231.39
ROI: -24.00%

Number of "sports" bet on: 16
Most popular:  Football (53), Horses (38), Golf (21).
Most profitable:  Football (£109.55), MMA (£99.25), Rugby Union (£93.00)
Least profitable: Horses (-£941.06), Golf (-£372.50), Basketball (-£120.33)

Number of tipsters: 32 including 1 new tipster.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 1,487
Amount wagered: £50,010.21
Profit/loss: £1,162.47
ROI: 2.32%

Number of "sports" bet on: 28
Most popular:  Football (474), Horses(195), Golf (132), Cricket(110).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
         
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Football   1,280.79   15,779.26   8.12   474
NFL   724.25   2,935.00   24.68   77
RL   458.61   1,015.00   45.18   46
...
Formula1   -373.00   490.00   -76.12   19
Golf   -546.37   3,878.00   -14.09   132
Basketball   -1,081.22   2,633.66   -41.05   57

Note that overall profit on horses of £882.54 until the end of March has now become a loss of £58.52.

The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 117


Number of different bookies/exchanges: 23

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
         
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
Betfair   751.90   5,420.55   13.87   156
WilliamHill   670.34   6,069.00   11.05   156
Bet365   532.40   2,248.96   23.67   90
...
Bwin   -312.30   990.00   -31.55   29
PaddyPower   -468.01   4,511.50   -10.37   165
BetFred   -512.75   3,010.00   -17.03   95


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7

[TL900]

William Hill headline offer on the Nuggets/Warriors game tonight Ty Lawson O25points and Denver to win 4/1.

Nuggets are 1/4 to win the game and Ty Lawson O20.5 points line with pinnacle is 7/10, makes this a must bet right? Seems pretty good value to me anyway.

Spin go 27.5-29.5 for Lawson's points+assists. It seems fairly likely his points are around ~21.5 on average, it seems like good value but why is it up as an offer?

They make what are called headline offers for each game of the playoffs offer one for each team in each game, some of them seem good value some seem horrible. This is just one of the better ones imo

Found a pony in Hills when I had a look, so I'm in

This series has been the best of the entire playoffs by far, 2 very fun teams to watch. Ty had 26 and 32 in the last 2 games so hopefully he can keep that up   Nuggets have to win tonight or they are out too so I expect/hope for big performances all round #nuggetsfanboy

The price definitely seems like significant value though with the odds I quoted.

Sounds good to me, just have to wait and see what the smart people are doing in the Madrid game work out a bet in the Madrid v Dortmund game and I'm set for the night

So f'in gay. Ty had 9 pts in 6minutes then got 10 the other 42 !