Tips for Tikay

[sharky_uk]

Can someone remind me why it is best, according to shrewd ones, to take free bet on a big outsider than nicking a bit on a good thing/odds on banker, please?

ty

I don't think this is entirely correct.  I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.

Say you had a £50 free bet.

If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67

If you back a 3/1 chance.  Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50

If you back a 10/1 chance.  Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is  0.09 x £500 = £45

If you back a 50/1 chance.  I think this is where the theory falls over.  A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125.  So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.

I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

Do not back each way, Camel explained this well yesterday.

Bump

Very good - Thanks

[superwomble]

Tikay - I see you've put both Warburton bets on the spready as winners - have Lads settled yours? They haven't mine.

[BigAdz]

Tikay - I see you've put both Warburton bets on the spready as winners - have Lads settled yours? They haven't mine.

I asked them yesterday how my bet can say Warburton to be made Captain of Lion Tour, and their headline on their own site says Warburton made Captain of Lions Tour, and yet they won't pay out?

They have referred it to trading dept "as it does seem unfair"

[TightEnd]

Especially for tikay

Click to see full-size image.

Roller morale is high at Trent Bridge

[BigAdz]

Ok chaps.

Getting married tomorrow.

45 years of getting away with all sorts over.

I would like my last day of freedom to be marked by a winner.

They don't have to be for Fred, but, please, indulge me

I was looking at doing Laurie's horse, Soveriegn Debt at Ascot, anyone got anything else?

[TightEnd]

Congratulations

I'm surprised you didn't wait until after the wedding to let us know you'd got married.



(joke...)

[The Camel]

Ok chaps.

Getting married tomorrow.

45 years of getting away with all sorts over.

I would like my last day of freedom to be marked by a winner.

They don't have to be for Fred, but, please, indulge me

I was looking at doing Laurie's horse, Soveriegn Debt at Ascot, anyone got anything else?

Congrats!

[The Camel]

Congratulations

I'm surprised you didn't wait until after the wedding to let us know you'd got married.



(joke...)

 

[TightEnd]

Mr Camel

How would you price up a Walden/Hawkins semi?


Hawkins playing teak tough, though Ding is all over the place mentally..beating himself up over every bad shot. Surprising to see

[hector62]

Congrats Mr Adz.

Not a tip for Fred but for you I think Gambhir to top score for Kolkata in this afternoons IPL game at odds of 11/4 will serve you well.

[BigAdz]

Thank you chaps.

Tighty, after timing is all about winning isn't it?!

[Tonji]

Congratulatons Adz & the future Mrs Adz.

[tikay]

Tikay - I see you've put both Warburton bets on the spready as winners - have Lads settled yours? They haven't mine.

Whoops.

It never crossed my mind, I completely forgot that issue. (Insert numerous excuses).

I have just checked my Accounts.

The 2nd bet was £20 @ 7/4 with William Hill, & HAS been settled as a winner, see....

16 Mar 13 / 19:01  Single 1   British & Irish Lions Tour - Who Will Be Appointed Captain Of The 2013 British Lions?  –  Who Will Be Appointed Captain Of The 2013 British Lions? Sam Warburton @ 7/4 Won £20.00 £55.00 O/0457483/0000332/F

However, the Ladbrokes bet - £10 @ 5/1 - has NOT been settled, see....


   
 
15/03/2013 0000289 Single (To win) 1 £10.00  2013 British Lions Tour of Australia British Lions tour captain  Sam Warburton  5/1  


Good spot Womble, apologies.

Mere - Can you correct this, please - the £10 : 5/1 for Warburton has NOT been settled, & remains an open bet.

[tikay]

In yesterday's numbers, I made another error (insert excuses, bla bla) & failed to include Ms Shin as a lost bet, thankfully Mr Mere spotted it & did the necessary.

My somewhat testing three days at work continues today, but as of 2am tomorrow morning, normal service will resume, & I'll need different excuses for what appears - at first sight of course - to be ineptitudeness of the highest order.

[MereNovice]

Tikay - I see you've put both Warburton bets on the spready as winners - have Lads settled yours? They haven't mine.

Whoops.

It never crossed my mind, I completely forgot that issue. (Insert numerous excuses).

I have just checked my Accounts.

The 2nd bet was £20 @ 7/4 with William Hill, & HAS been settled as a winner, see....

16 Mar 13 / 19:01  Single 1   British & Irish Lions Tour - Who Will Be Appointed Captain Of The 2013 British Lions?  –  Who Will Be Appointed Captain Of The 2013 British Lions? Sam Warburton @ 7/4 Won £20.00 £55.00 O/0457483/0000332/F

However, the Ladbrokes bet - £10 @ 5/1 - has NOT been settled, see....


 
15/03/2013 0000289 Single (To win) 1 £10.00  2013 British Lions Tour of Australia British Lions tour captain  Sam Warburton  5/1  


Good spot Womble, apologies.

Mere - Can you correct this, please - the £10 : 5/1 for Warburton has NOT been settled, & remains an open bet.

Have you asked them why they haven't settled it?
It seems to me that Sam Warburton is the "British Lions Tour of Australia British Lions tour captain".
If were the querulous type, I would be raising this as very poor behaviour on their part.