Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Well done on the Warburton coup.

Unfortunately I missed it, what price did you guys get?

think thread was 11/4 and 7/4

10 days ago more went in at 4/1 after the run on O'Connell

He says he was told 10 days ago, last Sunday, and didn't tell a soul

However 48 hours after some of us took the 4/1 Ladbrokes the price had become 1/2 and the market was down,and he traded down to 1.27 on Betfair


Irrespective of whether he is the right captain or not, he's Gatland's man, his Captain since 2011 and this was the basis of the recommendation. That proved to be correct.

 

[TheDazzler]

Isn't the obvious bet to back Madrid at 1.57 then do the same bet again when the match kicks off to get an effective price of 2.14 ?

Doesn't look at all obvious to me. 

Surely football free bets are like other free bets, and you should aim for a bigger price on the free portion?  This assumes BET365 aren't massively out of line on the other markets. 

Just looking at Oddschecker, Bet365 are best priced on the draw @ 4/1 or Robert Lewandowski to be first goalscorer @ 13/2.
Frankly it doesn't matter what we back as the price will be so good but backing something they are best priced on seems best.

I think I'll be going on the Robert Lewandowski first goalscorer myself. I'm pretty surprised on the pricing for the match. I think the first leg showed that Dortmund are clearly the better side and I would expect that the prices would be much closer together for this leg.
I understand the rationale (although I don't agree with it) with making Madrid very strong favs but even still, I think the market has over reacted.
I think if the first leg had been 2-0 Dortmund, the price might be more accurate but with the tie effectively over and Madrid having to throw the kitchen sink, I think this makes Dortmund more likely to win this second tie than if the score was closer.
It will be easier for their counter attacking style to sit back and pick off Madrid when the inevitable gaps appear.

[TL900]

William Hill headline offer on the Nuggets/Warriors game tonight Ty Lawson O25points and Denver to win 4/1.

Nuggets are 1/4 to win the game and Ty Lawson O20.5 points line with pinnacle is 7/10, makes this a must bet right? Seems pretty good value to me anyway.

[superwomble]

Good old Laddies. Wont pay out yet, but scrolling across the screen is the announcement Warburton Captain of Lions.

You cant dream some of this bs up.

Its perfectly fine.

I won't be accounting for these as winners yet as B365 market I bet in is as follows

eg
                                Event                                                         Event Date   
Sam Warburton    Who will start the 1st Test as Lions Captain?  22/06/2013
(Match Specials)   

I know mate, just feels like a mini rub tho

WillHills have paid out. N1 Tighty.

British & Irish Lions Tour - Who Will Be Appointed Captain Of The 2013 British Lions? – Sam Warburton

Lads still not paid out, although they were same market as Wills rather than 365. Great pick though Tighty.

[rfgqqabc]

William Hill headline offer on the Nuggets/Warriors game tonight Ty Lawson O25points and Denver to win 4/1.

Nuggets are 1/4 to win the game and Ty Lawson O20.5 points line with pinnacle is 7/10, makes this a must bet right? Seems pretty good value to me anyway.

Spin go 27.5-29.5 for Lawson's points+assists. It seems fairly likely his points are around ~21.5 on average, it seems like good value but why is it up as an offer?

[TL900]

William Hill headline offer on the Nuggets/Warriors game tonight Ty Lawson O25points and Denver to win 4/1.

Nuggets are 1/4 to win the game and Ty Lawson O20.5 points line with pinnacle is 7/10, makes this a must bet right? Seems pretty good value to me anyway.

Spin go 27.5-29.5 for Lawson's points+assists. It seems fairly likely his points are around ~21.5 on average, it seems like good value but why is it up as an offer?

They make what are called headline offers for each game of the playoffs offer one for each team in each game, some of them seem good value some seem horrible. This is just one of the better ones imo

[Marky147]

William Hill headline offer on the Nuggets/Warriors game tonight Ty Lawson O25points and Denver to win 4/1.

Nuggets are 1/4 to win the game and Ty Lawson O20.5 points line with pinnacle is 7/10, makes this a must bet right? Seems pretty good value to me anyway.

Spin go 27.5-29.5 for Lawson's points+assists. It seems fairly likely his points are around ~21.5 on average, it seems like good value but why is it up as an offer?

They make what are called headline offers for each game of the playoffs offer one for each team in each game, some of them seem good value some seem horrible. This is just one of the better ones imo

Found a pony in Hills when I had a look, so I'm in

[TL900]

William Hill headline offer on the Nuggets/Warriors game tonight Ty Lawson O25points and Denver to win 4/1.

Nuggets are 1/4 to win the game and Ty Lawson O20.5 points line with pinnacle is 7/10, makes this a must bet right? Seems pretty good value to me anyway.

Spin go 27.5-29.5 for Lawson's points+assists. It seems fairly likely his points are around ~21.5 on average, it seems like good value but why is it up as an offer?

They make what are called headline offers for each game of the playoffs offer one for each team in each game, some of them seem good value some seem horrible. This is just one of the better ones imo

Found a pony in Hills when I had a look, so I'm in

This series has been the best of the entire playoffs by far, 2 very fun teams to watch. Ty had 26 and 32 in the last 2 games so hopefully he can keep that up   Nuggets have to win tonight or they are out too so I expect/hope for big performances all round #nuggetsfanboy

The price definitely seems like significant value though with the odds I quoted.

[Newportlad]

Warburton captain

:-)

Well done Tighty 

[Tal]

I've been a bit slow to spot this is a Russian site, which explains why the Russian players are shorter than I expected.

Vladimir Kramnik 3.45
Boris Gelfand 13
Draw 1.48

Kramnik has won one game in this tournament and has been well short of his usual standards. Gelfand has been playing very well (including a really good win against Adams) and currently is joint leader with 2 games left.

He and Kramnik, I think, have drawn their last 11 games against each other in classical time controls, so with Kramnik being White, the draw looks big. Gelfand is big, too. The point is that 5/2 for Kramnik screams being too short.

Could this be a symptom of the markets? I am not au fait with this company and its workings.

Just an observation; I can't work out whether Gelfand or the draw is the better bet, so I'm not proposing either.

The Kramnik-Gelfand game ended in a draw, where Kramnik huffed and puffed but could not blow Gelfand's house down.

Matters little in the context of the betting market, but thought I'd report, anyway.

[Marky147]

William Hill headline offer on the Nuggets/Warriors game tonight Ty Lawson O25points and Denver to win 4/1.

Nuggets are 1/4 to win the game and Ty Lawson O20.5 points line with pinnacle is 7/10, makes this a must bet right? Seems pretty good value to me anyway.

Spin go 27.5-29.5 for Lawson's points+assists. It seems fairly likely his points are around ~21.5 on average, it seems like good value but why is it up as an offer?

They make what are called headline offers for each game of the playoffs offer one for each team in each game, some of them seem good value some seem horrible. This is just one of the better ones imo

Found a pony in Hills when I had a look, so I'm in

This series has been the best of the entire playoffs by far, 2 very fun teams to watch. Ty had 26 and 32 in the last 2 games so hopefully he can keep that up   Nuggets have to win tonight or they are out too so I expect/hope for big performances all round #nuggetsfanboy

The price definitely seems like significant value though with the odds I quoted.

Sounds good to me, just have to wait and see what the smart people are doing in the Madrid game work out a bet in the Madrid v Dortmund game and I'm set for the night

[exstream]

Do I need to deposit £100 for the bet365 offer or bet £50 and then they automatically give me a free bet for INPLAY?!?!

[TightEnd]

£100

£50 before the start

£50 place after start

if the second bet loses they refund it

[tikay]

I have not been able to do any Fred stuff today, I've been closeted away in a lappie-free zone, so I've missed the Free Bet offers tonight.

[Tal]

Real could be winning on aggregate by now!

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