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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16605923 times)
TheDazzler
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« Reply #41760 on: May 25, 2013, 06:45:22 PM »

Lol, maybe I got on too quickly.

Well we are on Dortmund now, so do we stick with that for the In-Play bet, or do we switch?

No, you stick.
It doesn't matter hugely, all bets are good, just the best price is obviously slightly better.
Personally I don't think there is very much between the 2 teams and think that Bayern are probably too short.
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Doobs
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« Reply #41761 on: May 25, 2013, 06:53:34 PM »

Lol, maybe I got on too quickly.

Well we are on Dortmund now, so do we stick with that for the In-Play bet, or do we switch?

No, you stick.
It doesn't matter hugely, all bets are good, just the best price is obviously slightly better.
Personally I don't think there is very much between the 2 teams and think that Bayern are probably too short.

Disagree on the first point, picking a bigger price for a free bet can double the value vs taking a 5/6 shot.  Definitely don't take the short price on Bayern for the freebie.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
TheDazzler
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« Reply #41762 on: May 25, 2013, 06:54:44 PM »

Lol, maybe I got on too quickly.

Well we are on Dortmund now, so do we stick with that for the In-Play bet, or do we switch?

No, you stick.
It doesn't matter hugely, all bets are good, just the best price is obviously slightly better.
Personally I don't think there is very much between the 2 teams and think that Bayern are probably too short.

Disagree on the first point, picking a bigger price for a free bet can double the value vs taking a 5/6 shot.  Definitely don't take the short price on Bayern for the freebie.

Ok, I'm happy to defer to the learned gentleman Smiley
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tikay
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« Reply #41763 on: May 25, 2013, 07:15:52 PM »

Whilst preparing the soil for the fennel seeds the overs in the Castleford game came in so anyone who did that one is free rolling the Warrington bet.

Warrington lead by 12 after 10 minutes, and we have the 8 point handicap too.

Fennel Harvest Fessie.
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simonnatur
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« Reply #41764 on: May 25, 2013, 07:29:39 PM »

errr we have -8 handicap innit? (currently losing)
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Reluctant to race, came home in own time
Doobs
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« Reply #41765 on: May 25, 2013, 07:32:28 PM »

Bet365 have exactly 10 corners at 7/1.  Anyone need a sweat, is probably a decent home for a free bet.  

Anyone know if they do FGS in play? I have a feeling they don't.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
a.sparrow
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« Reply #41766 on: May 25, 2013, 07:43:54 PM »

Bet365 have exactly 10 corners at 7/1.  Anyone need a sweat, is probably a decent home for a free bet.  

Anyone know if they do FGS in play? I have a feeling they don't.

They so to score next goal in play, pretty much the same
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tikay
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« Reply #41767 on: May 25, 2013, 07:51:31 PM »

errr we have -8 handicap innit? (currently losing)

Ahh yes, so it is.

Luckily, Warrington now lead 28-10.

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tikay
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« Reply #41768 on: May 25, 2013, 07:55:50 PM »


Oh my, what is this opening ceremony about?

Don't ever say the Germans lack a sense of humour. A very exclusive one.

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Doobs
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« Reply #41769 on: May 25, 2013, 07:59:58 PM »

Bet365 have exactly 10 corners at 7/1.  Anyone need a sweat, is probably a decent home for a free bet.  

Anyone know if they do FGS in play? I have a feeling they don't.

They so to score next goal in play, pretty much the same

Cheers, Bet365 FGS prices appear uncompetitive, might stick to the corners.

Edit.  Got 11 corners at 13/2.  Was an early corner. 
« Last Edit: May 25, 2013, 08:06:15 PM by Doobs » Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Marky147
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« Reply #41770 on: May 25, 2013, 08:06:02 PM »

I've just doubled down on the draw, that way I should have sweat until the end Smiley
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tikay
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« Reply #41771 on: May 25, 2013, 08:10:50 PM »



The Bet365 In-Play bet is ON, but they restricted me to £28.57.

I cannot access my Bet365 "History" at present either, to check what has happened.

 "Sports history is currently unavailable"
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Doobs
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« Reply #41772 on: May 25, 2013, 08:13:58 PM »

Bet at 9/1.  Chance of losing = .9.  Chance of winning = .1.  Expected return =.1 x 500 + .9 x 50 = £95.

Bet at 2/1.  Chance of losing = .67. Chance of winning = .33. Expected return = .333 x 150 + .6666x 50 = £83.

Picking big odds for free bets is + EV.  So exact corners, no goal scorer etc are good. Bayern to win is bad.

Edit 4 corners already pls slow down!
« Last Edit: May 25, 2013, 08:17:22 PM by Doobs » Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
tikay
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« Reply #41773 on: May 25, 2013, 08:25:28 PM »

The Bet365 Sports History is now available again.

It confirms we got £50 @ 7/2 pre match, but were Restricted to £28.57 @ 7/2 In-Play. Not sure how we resolve that if Dortmund win, but it will be a nice problem to have. They look to be well in charge so far, but are still available at 3/1 surprisingly.
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TheDazzler
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« Reply #41774 on: May 25, 2013, 08:29:45 PM »

The Bet365 Sports History is now available again.

It confirms we got £50 @ 7/2 pre match, but were Restricted to £28.57 @ 7/2 In-Play. Not sure how we resolve that if Dortmund win, but it will be a nice problem to have. They look to be well in charge so far, but are still available at 3/1 surprisingly.

How can they restrict you on the Champs League Final? They can't think you're that much of a shrewdie. And particularly when they are running a promotion?
It's not a case of you only had £28.57 left in the account?
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