Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Have you hired Barry Cryer to post for you or something?

I had better desist forthwith - never realised it was THAT bad.

Humble apols.

[TightEnd]

Monty is quite a sensitive soul. Comes from a very close family from Luton. Had no choice to leave Northants if he wanted to play for England (Northants were horrible for about two decades) and found himself homesick quite a lot on tour

His marriage broke up this year which was not his decision and this, together with not being selected in a few Test squads, hit him hard

Like a lot of fellas in emotional distress, he went off the rails, drink became a problem etc etc

He's still the top English qualified spinner in the LVCC1 in terms of wickets taken this season.

All being well he'll get a few arms put round him, maybe move back to Northants to be close to home, and come good again

[JaffaCake]

Nicola cortese led a team of wealthy investors, buying Southampton out of admin. Two promotions and 36m of spend this off-season, cortese has designs on the top six. Very ambitious club now

We should have backed them.

I did spot the value but too late fred was already on us going down

Keep on seeing posts regretting this Southampton bet (to go down), yet the price doesn't seem to be getting a mention....now we have one that says there's "value" in backing them. Been thinking this every time I read one of these posts....this is pretty ice creamy thinking.

If you regret backing Southampton to go down coz u don't think they will, I take it u won't be interested in pressing if I offer u 100/1 on them to get relegated? Want any at 1000/1, or is the fact u don't see it happening still make it a bad bet?

Similarly, if Ironside has spotted value in backing Southampton to make the top 6, I'm laying as much as u want at 1/100....fill your boots, value like this is hard to spot.

I didn't suggest backing Southampton to go down, but I did think it was a price I wouldn't fancy laying at 10/1. Presumably u boys who think it was a bad bet think the price on Southampton to go down should have been, what, 16/1? 20s? Now they've had the best possible start, an away win coupled with all the relegation rivals losing, what would u lay, 25s?

Morning Jeff.

I don't think anyone is bring serious about the Southampton bet being bad, it's just craic. The bet is on, too late for regrets.

If it goes badly wrong, then expect to see more of the same, it's just banter.

We had this last Season, when Eso Ice Cream got us on Walsall to be relegated/promoted/win the cup/lose the cup/do anything/do nothing (all lost) & we teased him mercilessly. If Southampton stay up, Fun4Fraser, who recommended the bet, will get exactly the same treatment. For £30, it'll be worth it.

Incidentallly, I see from this morning's "Tony Awards" in "The Game" in the Times, that Southampton fielded THREE English 18 year olds in their team on Saturday, all of whom were products from their Youth Academy. How good is that?

Hi teeks, not sure you're getting my point. It's fine to say that Southampton to go down at 10/1 is a bad beat if u feel that way, to say it's bad coz I don't think it will happen is back to your ice cream ways. Pointing out why 10/1 is the wrong price is prevalent. There must be a price where you'd like a bet on it?

It's not quite a Walsall situ, that/those bet/s was/were dead in the water when the mickey taking started, this one is alive and kicking, but let's face it, a 10/1 shot isn't likely to win very often. As Fraser and Mere aren't about to answer, I will!

Must buy the Game more, great stat that, just think the players that have come through that youth system and what they're worth, Bale, Walcott, Oxlade Chambo and now a new raft of them.

Surely whoever is in charge of recruiting and developing them must be worth millions in the transfer market on their own?!

[Tal]

Have you hired Barry Cryer to post for you or something?

I had better desist forthwith - never realised it was THAT bad.

Humble apols.

Worry not. Stranger things have happened. Like someone being paid by ITV to write an article that suggests Spurs are looking to sign Falcao. In the words of Gwen Stefani, bananas. B-A-N-A-N-A-S.

[Bad Beat]

 I'm feeling generous so I'll give you another decent horse bet.

 The 2.00 at Thirsk is a pretty poor maiden 2-y-old race. Thirsk is a track where there is a big draw bias. Over 5f and 6f it's one of the biggest biases in the country. It's a high.

 The two favourites in this race are Inyordreams which is running for in-form James Given and which has decent form and Bretherton which has come from 4/1 into 2/1 this morning and is unraced for Richard Fahey. These are drawn 3 and 2 respectively.

 There are ten other runners, five of which I put a line through in seconds (nos 2,6,8,11,12), and a couple of which took a few seconds more to eliminate with confidence (7 & 13).

 We were left with four horses to take on the badly drawn favourites with...

 Missouri Spirit ran 3rd in it's only start on soft ground at Ayr. The form is nothing special but nor is this race. It is drawn low though. I'd be against.

 Pure Impressions is unraced for the stable of Karle Burke. Sold as a yearling for just 1000 is usually a bad sign, drawn pretty low and weak in the market. No thanks.

 Johara stayed on at Kempton over this 6f on debut. It's drawn high and it could easily be good enough. May not benefit from the draw if it starts slow and stays on and it isn't certain to be trying hard here. Bit weak in the market to think it's really going to win.

 We're left with one horse...

 Pennine Warrior ran OK at Windsor 1st time up when unfancied over 5f and then ran better in a slightly worse race than this at Southwell where it ran 2nd.

 I can't really see how this can be out of the frame from this draw if it runs to the form it showed last time.

 I took 8/1 each-way with Ladbrokes. I haven't had as big bet as the last few I put up because we are slightly guessing with these 2-y-olds but I still think it's decent. I would be happy with 6/1 and I see VC are still 15/2.

[DungBeetle]

"just think the players that have come through that youth system and what they're worth, Bale, Walcott, Oxlade Chambo and now a new raft of them.
Surely whoever is in charge of recruiting and developing them must be worth millions in the transfer market on their own?!"

Southampton are great to manage in Football Manager 2013 due to the youth facitilies.   You always get a constant stream of young players coming though and they hunt for foreign youngsters for you as well.

Not sure what relevance this has to the discussion but hey-ho.

[horseplayer]

Good luck Neil

Maidens not really my thing but i have had a very small bet on the already mentioned Chris Wall Johara.

As you say not usually a trainer for maidens but it was of some interest to me he has won this renewal previously with an eventual listed winner.

[tikay]

I'm feeling generous so I'll give you another decent horse bet.

 The 2.00 at Thirsk is a pretty poor maiden 2-y-old race. Thirsk is a track where there is a big draw bias. Over 5f and 6f it's one of the biggest biases in the country. It's a high.

 The two favourites in this race are Inyordreams which is running for in-form James Given and which has decent form and Bretherton which has come from 4/1 into 2/1 this morning and is unraced for Richard Fahey. These are drawn 3 and 2 respectively.

 There are ten other runners, five of which I put a line through in seconds (nos 2,6,8,11,12), and a couple of which took a few seconds more to eliminate with confidence (7 & 13).

 We were left with four horses to take on the badly drawn favourites with...

 Missouri Spirit ran 3rd in it's only start on soft ground at Ayr. The form is nothing special but nor is this race. It is drawn low though. I'd be against.

 Pure Impressions is unraced for the stable of Karle Burke. Sold as a yearling for just 1000 is usually a bad sign, drawn pretty low and weak in the market. No thanks.

 Johara stayed on at Kempton over this 6f on debut. It's drawn high and it could easily be good enough. May not benefit from the draw if it starts slow and stays on and it isn't certain to be trying hard here. Bit weak in the market to think it's really going to win.

 We're left with one horse...

 Pennine Warrior ran OK at Windsor 1st time up when unfancied over 5f and then ran better in a slightly worse race than this at Southwell where it ran 2nd.

 I can't really see how this can be out of the frame from this draw if it runs to the form it showed last time.

 I took 8/1 each-way with Ladbrokes. I haven't had as big bet as the last few I put up because we are slightly guessing with these 2-y-olds but I still think it's decent. I would be happy with 6/1 and I see VC are still 15/2.

Top work Mr G, thank you.

The 8/1 with Laddies is all gone, but we got 15/2 with BMU.

Think I may have punted this a bit big, given your caveat (2yo etc) but I was in a rush to get on, & it's too late now.

Good luck!

£50 EW @ 15/2, BetVictor, Pennine Warrior, 2pm Firsk. 

ON

14:00PENNINE WARRIOR (EW)(Horse Racing Outright)Odds: 15/2 Stake: 100.00Possible Return:  550.00

[exstream]

A friend has a bet, in which if Newcastle draw, he wins £1500. He wants to lock up profit. What are his options?
Other than let it ride...

[tikay]

Nicola cortese led a team of wealthy investors, buying Southampton out of admin. Two promotions and 36m of spend this off-season, cortese has designs on the top six. Very ambitious club now

We should have backed them.

I did spot the value but too late fred was already on us going down

Keep on seeing posts regretting this Southampton bet (to go down), yet the price doesn't seem to be getting a mention....now we have one that says there's "value" in backing them. Been thinking this every time I read one of these posts....this is pretty ice creamy thinking.

If you regret backing Southampton to go down coz u don't think they will, I take it u won't be interested in pressing if I offer u 100/1 on them to get relegated? Want any at 1000/1, or is the fact u don't see it happening still make it a bad bet?

Similarly, if Ironside has spotted value in backing Southampton to make the top 6, I'm laying as much as u want at 1/100....fill your boots, value like this is hard to spot.

I didn't suggest backing Southampton to go down, but I did think it was a price I wouldn't fancy laying at 10/1. Presumably u boys who think it was a bad bet think the price on Southampton to go down should have been, what, 16/1? 20s? Now they've had the best possible start, an away win coupled with all the relegation rivals losing, what would u lay, 25s?

Morning Jeff.

I don't think anyone is bring serious about the Southampton bet being bad, it's just craic. The bet is on, too late for regrets.

If it goes badly wrong, then expect to see more of the same, it's just banter.

We had this last Season, when Eso Ice Cream got us on Walsall to be relegated/promoted/win the cup/lose the cup/do anything/do nothing (all lost) & we teased him mercilessly. If Southampton stay up, Fun4Fraser, who recommended the bet, will get exactly the same treatment. For £30, it'll be worth it.

Incidentallly, I see from this morning's "Tony Awards" in "The Game" in the Times, that Southampton fielded THREE English 18 year olds in their team on Saturday, all of whom were products from their Youth Academy. How good is that?

Hi teeks, not sure you're getting my point. It's fine to say that Southampton to go down at 10/1 is a bad beat if u feel that way, to say it's bad coz I don't think it will happen is back to your ice cream ways. Pointing out why 10/1 is the wrong price is prevalent. There must be a price where you'd like a bet on it?
It's not quite a Walsall situ, that/those bet/s was/were dead in the water when the mickey taking started, this one is alive and kicking, but let's face it, a 10/1 shot isn't likely to win very often. As Fraser and Mere aren't about to answer, I will!

Must buy the Game more, great stat that, just think the players that have come through that youth system and what they're worth, Bale, Walcott, Oxlade Chambo and now a new raft of them.

Surely whoever is in charge of recruiting and developing them must be worth millions in the transfer market on their own?!

You are correct Jeff - I am not getting your point.

I have NO PROBLEM with the bet, & never have.

Anything I've said to the contrary is just banter.

You may also be right to suggest I've reverted to Ice-Cream Mode, fine, no prob, but I honestly have NO PROBLEMS with the bet, & never, except in jest, have I suggested otherwise.

It's just banter.

I am pretty sure you are getting the wrong end of the stick, or have confused me with someone else.

Or, most likely, I need to add smileys to my ironic posts, or stop trying to be as funny as Barry Cryer.

Lets move on.

The point about the guys behind the Southampton Academy is excellent, & I agree entirely. This "the only way to be successful is spend money" is unsustainable. I love it when clubs have successful Academies. I still well remember Bob Lord, Burnley survived on his Academy thinking for decades. Think Crewe did the same thing, too. And what must Wilshere be worth, at Arsenal?

How much would I pay the guy behind the Southampton Academy? Tricky. The starting point would be a PL strikers salary, then double it. Then add a bit.

How many successes does he need before he is a profitable asset? Such a man could, literally, save a club from Bankruptcy.

TV Money is obscuring the financial facts of life, & very few clubs are being managed prudently when it comes to finances. The roundabout will stop one day, & most clubs will instantly die. Then you'll hear the fans hooting & hollering. But not those who have been prudent with money, they'll be just fine.

[Doobs]

A friend has a bet, in which if Newcastle draw, he wins £1500. He wants to lock up profit. What are his options?
Other than let it ride...

Let it ride is obvious, and correct.  I assume he didn't put this bet on to win £300?  

You could lay £300 on the draw at 5/1 on Betfair.  If the draw comes in, he loses £1500 on Betfair, if it doesn't he gets £300 less 5%.  You could probaly lay a bit less if he wanted a profit either way.

[tikay]

A friend has a bet, in which if Newcastle draw, he wins £1500. He wants to lock up profit. What are his options?
Other than let it ride...

Think you need to be a little more specific. Are you referring to tonight's game, away to Man C?

If so, this is the starting point.....

 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-newcastle/winner

EDIT - The previous post, by Doobs, is the precise answer of course.

[Chompy]

Big Brother final tonight.

At the moment it's hard to see beyond...

1. Sam
2. Dexter
3. Gina
4. Fat and Joe
5. Charlie

Sam is now 4/6, Dex 3/1, Gina 8/1, Twins 20/1, Charlie 100/1.

There are worse 2/5 shots around than Charlie to finish fifth.

Charlie will get all boos, Twins mostly boos with the odd cheer, same for Gina and Dex, Sam mostly cheers with the odd boo.

It's almost certain that Sam, Dex and Gina will be the final three. Who finishes third and for how long they reopen voting after Dex or Gina gets the boot is key. If it's a decent amount of time, Gina voters will switch to Dex and vice versa.

If Dex goes third and the lines are reopened for a sensible amount of time, Gina will come into around 2/1 imo. If Gina goes third Dex will come into around 6/4, maybe a bit shorter.

Best result for thread now, realistically, is a Sam win.

Gina backers will want to keep a close eye on things and hope she gets to HU with Sam, as that would provide a trading spot. Tbh, though, I've given up on Gina. Callum getting the boot instead of Hazel, and the negative edit for the past few weeks has pretty much done for her.

[exstream]

Thanks guys.

[Bad Beat]

 Ladbroke price bomb is in the 1.45pm at Worcester for 15 mins online only...

 Spice Hill you get 2/1 it trades at 6/4 on Betfair having been 2.5 out to 2.8 and back to a solid 2.5.

 I don't really fancy it at 6/4 but obv at 2/1 it's a bit different. Think it's £25 max.

 Apologies I think that is Corals not Ladbrokes.