Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Can I also, on bobby1's thought process re stale prices

recommend a free bet goes on Kansas City to win the AFC West at 7-1 William Hill please?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-west/winner

Denver are 1-4, and prohibitive favourites

Since this market went up though Von Miller the superstar defender faces a six game ban. Dumervil has gone to the Ravens. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil had 155 QB pressures in 2012. The rest of the Broncos defense had 140.

there also season ending injuries on the offensive line too, and Denver are only ever a Peyton injury away from mediocrity imo

Kansas are another team that have been horrible for so long they have been able to draft lots of top ten talent

They have a bona fide running game with Jamaal Charles and this year drafted the top OL in a year where there were 12 OL in the first round

Alex Smith was supplanted by C K at San Fran but was much improved before he was injured. He can do whatis required

The defense is choc full of talent

The schedule is easier, the weaker teams from last year get swing games against other weak teams

All part of the NFL's process to make every team competitive.


Chargers are not going to win the division - no pass rush, no offensive line

Oakland have a roster that looks like an expansion team

In one of the weaker divisions 7-1 Kansas is great value but the sort of great value you don't necessarily expect to scoop the jolly but they'll be a lot closer than people think

I can't have Denver 1/4 after the run of bad news they have had, and make Kansas solid second favourites in one of the weaker divisions around

Go ahead, but take one of the Ladbrokes freebies.  I think it expires first and we have two of them.  

Bugger. For once, I failed to dither.

No worries, no real damage, just a bit better to have a choice of bookies.  Sure we'll have more Hills freebies by the end of the week!

[DungBeetle]

I also liked the way Niall Quinn said "Since he's been back he's been questioning the role of agents".

It's as if Quinn thinks Holloway failed to exist once Blackpool were relegated from the Premier League and has only just now re-emerged.  Hate it when pundits talk as if the Premier League is an exlusive bubble.

[tikay]

Kansas are another team that have been horrible for so long they have been able to draft lots of top ten talent

Explain that, please?

The worse you are, the better players you can get?

Do Crystal Palace know that?

[tikay]

which free bet did you use tikay?

p.s Kansas City are 4.93-1 on Betfair to win the div, fwiw (not too much yet)

but I do echo Phil's mthoughts on some stale prices. A lot has changed in pre-season for various teams, some big injuries and suspensions around

Wm Hill. I thought that was your suggestion.

[bobby1]

Hi Tony,

I haven't read all the replies but if you took say two of your £25 quid free bets on Cincy to with the Conference and had maybe £125 quid on them for the Div then the staking is a bit squiffy but not terrible. They are obv related bets so one go well both go well.

The Kansas bet Rich has put up is a little like the Miami bet you had last week, they are likely to be the 2nd best team in their Div but the fav in the Div have had plenty of issues in the last few weeks. Champ Bailey will likely be out for an extended period for Denver too after getting a bad injury over the weekend. They have drifted from around 7.8/8.0 on BF to 8.4 after those problems in with Kansas getting a little shorter too, again not reflected really in the fixed odds markets.

[TightEnd]

Kansas are another team that have been horrible for so long they have been able to draft lots of top ten talent

Explain that, please?

The worse you are, the better players you can get?

Do Crystal Palace know that?

!bloody hell tikay

now I have to write a long one

[DungBeetle]

Someone said AVB has bad dress sense?   I can't be having that - best dressed manager out there!

[dreenie]

20/08.  Lyon vs Sociedad. CL.

Anytime scorer.  Lacazette.  2/1.  He has scored 3 in 2 in a confident free-scoring team.  Lyon are 6/5 for the win at home.  Lyon have scored 7 goals in the 2 wins this season. 

Recommend Anytime scorer for £20.

Thanks.

I had intended to ask what the value basis of this bet was, but the price generally is 6/4 to 7/4, you suggested it at 2/1, but I can get 5/2 in two spots, so logically - I think - we must get on @ 5/2, which seems to me to be ool. (Ignoring the bWin faux paus)

We have £20 @ 5/2, BetVictor, Lacazette, ANYTIME Goalscorer, Lyon v Sociedad, CL Qualifier, this evening.

ON

(Details to follow, I cannot access BMU @ present to C & P the slip, it is down for maintenance))

Excellent sir. I must get into the habit of providing odds checker views rather than just the 1 site.

But we're on so its all good

You most certainly MUST!

The over/under on how many times the Elders gave me a bollocking for not checking prices must be around 800.

Originally I just thought "yeah yeah yeah, shut it, I'm not daft". (Delusion ftw)

But they were right. Look at it this way.

We have had approx 2,040 bets, & managed a return of about 4% profit. (There is a slight error in the Spready on that, but no matter for now).

Imagine if we had taken 17/4 or 15/8 for every bet, when we could have got 2/1 by looking around.....it would need Professor Doobs to work out how much difference that would make, but for 100% certain, our 4% PROFIT would morph into a x% LOSS.

So getting the best price really is the difference between profit & loss.

Anyway, here's the BetVictor Betslip for your bet. Good luck.


Olympique Lyonnais v Real SociedadAlexandre Lacazette (Anytime Goal Scorer)Odds: 5/2 Stake: 20.00Possible Return:  70.00

You are right obviously, there are thin margins in betting.  

I think Dreenie's bet was a good example, I love Al Kazeem, and maybe he is a good thing.  But if we just wait until the offers come in we are adding 20% or so to the EV.  So we convert a zero EV bet into a +20% one, or more likely a -5% one in to a +15% one.  

I think this anytime scorer bet looks like a selective stats bet.  Last year he barely scored at all, which counterbalances the 3 in 2 this year.  The two previous games were against French sides, tonight they are playing a Spanish side.  

Of course, it is inevitable he scores tonight now, just still not sure it is value.

I was actually originally intending to rebuff tonight's ANYTIME bet, but I withered & dithered when I realised I could get 5/2, when it is 6/4 & 7/4 most places. In fact, redarmi has a sort of programme where he can translate Outright match betting into Goalscorer probability, but it's all a bit above my head.

Getting back to getting the best price possible, yes, a fantastic lesson for all of us, & especially for our new, & perhaps ONLY Lady Freddie, young Miss Nutty Dreenie.

ARE YOU LISTENING DREENIE?.....

Incredible really - the difference between profit & loss can be down to getting the best available price. The margin is that small.

Pure "punters" of course (been there) don't bother. 

Yes I am here and listening, just not sure I am understanding the new way of gambling life :/

[Tal]

Tikay is doing a lot of this today

 

And getting a lot of this

 

[horseplayer]

I also liked the way Niall Quinn said "Since he's been back he's been questioning the role of agents".

It's as if Quinn thinks Holloway failed to exist once Blackpool were relegated from the Premier League and has only just now re-emerged.  Hate it when pundits talk as if the Premier League is an exlusive bubble.

Yes Sky have a great habit of that

During the City game last night somebody said

"So here he is Pellegrini managed a bit elsewere but not to this level"

Yep a year at Real Madrid and various other top level jobs in South America were a walk in the park

[TightEnd]

In the US a gridiron player

- plays for his high school and is recruited to a college

- plays for his college for 3 or 4 years, and is then drafted to the NFL

The NFL at its heart is the sporting embodiment of socialism, in the most capitalist society in the world, a point often missed by many

The talent rich shall not become too rich and the talent poor shall be given the resources to be competitive/survive

Each year when the draft comes around the pool of players are available to draft

The NFL team with the worst record the previous season gets to draft first in each of seven rounds

The team that wins the superbowl drafts last in each round

So in theory the talent on each team equalisies

This, as well as coaching changes and recruiting players in free agency is why you so rarely get teams winning multiple superbowls year after year and why in any given season relative to the last up to half of the best teams the year before do not make the next play offs the next time

There are exceptions

talent and coaching can come together to make a Patriots, who make multiple superbowls

teams can be badly managed and draft poorly such that they waste the opportunity to draft the right talent eg Oakland raiders

but in essence the US system works to avoid an English premier league system where the top 4 will always be the top 4

A salary cap, distribution of TV money and the NFL draft all designed to make it as level playing field as possible

[DungBeetle]

To be honest - the funniest example of this was ITV when the Premier League started and they were left with the new Football League Division 1.

Ian Saint John would just ignore the Premier League and any mention of promotion along the lines of "Championship contenders Wolves can cap a brilliant season by securing the title this afternoon".  The following season Wolves would never be mentioned again as if they had been incinerated following their Championship win and the mysterious Nottingham Forest would just arrive on the scene as if they had just been founded that summer.

[tikay]

In the US a gridiron player

- plays for his high school and is recruited to a college

- plays for his college for 3 or 4 years, and is then drafted to the NFL

The NFL at its heart is the sporting embodiment of socialism, in the most capitalist society in the world, a point often missed by many

The rich shall not become too rich and the poor shall be given the resources to be competitive/survive

Each year when the draft comes around the pool of players are available to draft

The NFL team with the worst record the previous season gets to draft first in each of seven rounds

The team that wins the superbowl drafts last in each round

So in theory the talent on each team equalisies

This, as well as coaching changes and recruiting players in free agency is why you so rarely get teams winning multiple superbowls year after year and why in any given season relative to the last up to half of the best teams the year before do not make the next play offs the next time

There are exceptions

talent and coaching can come together to make a Patriots, who make multiple superbowls

teams can be badly managed and draft poorly such that they waste the opportunity to draft the right talent eg Oakland raiders

but in essence the US system works to avoid an English premier league system where the top 4 will always be the top 4

distribution of TV money and the NFL draft all designed to make it as level playing field as possible

Brilliant, thanks.

So there can never be a situation such as we have in the Premier League where there is a huge skill & money gulf between the top 4 (Man U, Man C, Chelsea & Arsenal) & the minnows & also-rans?

[bobby1]

Kansas are another team that have been horrible for so long they have been able to draft lots of top ten talent

Explain that, please?

The worse you are, the better players you can get?

Do Crystal Palace know that?

The really good thing about Kansas is they were a decent team in many areas last year but terrible at QB, they have a big upgrade there now and have weapons to be competitive in that Div, tho still a way behind Denver even with their issues.

NFL can change so quickly with injuries tho and the 7/1 looks good for one of the free bets with the understanding that Denver could still win the Div easily but you are on the team with the most potential to improve on last season at 7/1.

[tikay]

Hi Tony,

I haven't read all the replies but if you took say two of your £25 quid free bets on Cincy to with the Conference and had maybe £125 quid on them for the Div then the staking is a bit squiffy but not terrible. They are obv related bets so one go well both go well.

The Kansas bet Rich has put up is a little like the Miami bet you had last week, they are likely to be the 2nd best team in their Div but the fav in the Div have had plenty of issues in the last few weeks. Champ Bailey will likely be out for an extended period for Denver too after getting a bad injury over the weekend. They have drifted from around 7.8/8.0 on BF to 8.4 after those problems in with Kansas getting a little shorter too, again not reflected really in the fixed odds markets.

You've lost me a bit there Phil, speak slowly please.

We have £50 @ 16/1, Corals, Bengals to win the Conf.

Now we want them to win the Div @ 23/10. How much would you recommend in that spot?