Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Does anybody have any more info on BETBRIGHT please?

They are on oddschecker so obviously ok

Anybody used them yet?

cheers

Have used them. Taken the freebie. Abused them, got paid and now ignore them!

[Marky147]

Thanks Phil.


My gut feeling on the BF outright is that Cincy and Balti will go off the same or maybe Cinci will be one price behind Balti with Pitts around 2 prices behind them, maybe a bigger gap if the rb Bell is out/not fully fit for the start of the season. With Cincy you have the most stable team of the 3 main teams in the Div so if we are taking the 16/1 to win the Conf then the 23/10 to win the Div should be a bet too.

You mentioned having a stock of free bets to invest this week, obv there is lots of good racing coming up but this is prob the nut best week to 10 days to be taking advantage of the old NFL prices in a lot of fixed odds markets because the season starts in just over 2 weeks, so the firms will start looking at their markets again in around a week.

I don't want to throw money around. but we have such fun with these "season" bets, & NFL is so popular here, & has given us so much fun, so yes, I want to load up - to a point - on NFL before the Season starts, that gives us two good sports to take though the cold dark winter nights, Football & NFL.

I know this will make me look a clot, but I'm sure I'm not alone here - explain this please....

16/1 to win the Conf then the 23/10 to win the Div should be a bet too.

Division? Conference? The difference is?.......I can only think in English football terms.

The Division is 4 teams (AFC North), the Conference is 16 (AFC North, East, South and West), I think

This is the bet Phil is suggesting http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-north/winner

[tikay]

PS - If we have £50 @ 16/1 to win Conf, how much would you recommend @ 23/10 (current best price, Coral) for Div?

[tikay]

Thanks Phil.


My gut feeling on the BF outright is that Cincy and Balti will go off the same or maybe Cinci will be one price behind Balti with Pitts around 2 prices behind them, maybe a bigger gap if the rb Bell is out/not fully fit for the start of the season. With Cincy you have the most stable team of the 3 main teams in the Div so if we are taking the 16/1 to win the Conf then the 23/10 to win the Div should be a bet too.

You mentioned having a stock of free bets to invest this week, obv there is lots of good racing coming up but this is prob the nut best week to 10 days to be taking advantage of the old NFL prices in a lot of fixed odds markets because the season starts in just over 2 weeks, so the firms will start looking at their markets again in around a week.

I don't want to throw money around. but we have such fun with these "season" bets, & NFL is so popular here, & has given us so much fun, so yes, I want to load up - to a point - on NFL before the Season starts, that gives us two good sports to take though the cold dark winter nights, Football & NFL.

I know this will make me look a clot, but I'm sure I'm not alone here - explain this please....

16/1 to win the Conf then the 23/10 to win the Div should be a bet too.

Division? Conference? The difference is?.......I can only think in English football terms.

The Division is 4 teams (AFC North), the Conference is 16 (AFC North, East, South and West), I think

This is the bet Phil is suggesting http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-north/winner

Top man Marky, but really I was fishing for a Tighty special - weather graphs, heavy rollers, stadium architects, average cheerleader age, that sort of thing.

[TightEnd]

Can I also, on bobby1's thought process re stale prices

recommend a free bet goes on Kansas City to win the AFC West at 7-1 William Hill please?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-west/winner

Denver are 1-4, and prohibitive favourites

Since this market went up though Von Miller the superstar defender faces a six game ban. Dumervil has gone to the Ravens. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil had 155 QB pressures in 2012. The rest of the Broncos defense had 140.

there also season ending injuries on the offensive line too, and Denver are only ever a Peyton injury away from mediocrity imo

Kansas are another team that have been horrible for so long they have been able to draft lots of top ten talent

They have a bona fide running game with Jamaal Charles and this year drafted the top OL in a year where there were 12 OL in the first round

Alex Smith was supplanted by C K at San Fran but was much improved before he was injured. He can do whatis required

The defense is choc full of talent

The schedule is easier, the weaker teams from last year get swing games against other weak teams

All part of the NFL's process to make every team competitive.


Chargers are not going to win the division - no pass rush, no offensive line

Oakland have a roster that looks like an expansion team

In one of the weaker divisions 7-1 Kansas is great value but the sort of great value you don't necessarily expect to scoop the jolly but they'll be a lot closer than people think

I can't have Denver 1/4 after the run of bad news they have had, and make Kansas solid second favourites in one of the weaker divisions around

[bobby1]

tikay, without giving away too much was it a bad football weekend for bookies?

lots of favourites, lots of accas, lots of first goalscorer favourites, so I would imagine the football season has been "below" long term margins so far this season?

this coral chap won £15k and was one goal away from £1m...

Click to see full-size image.

Not giving away ANY secrets, everyone must know the score, it has been a terrible start to the season for the bookies, really terrible. Sunday was the perfect storm, Spurs, Chelsea, & the three Spanish matches in the evening. Been the same since the Championship started actually.

Last season was an abso corker for the bookies, it was incredible, week after week, especially the Championship, which was unbackable.  

It all evens out in the end, & in a weird way, bookies don't mind ice creams winning a few bob now & then, it mostly stays in the market, & eventually it'll get returned. On a "multi media platform", when the Sports betting arm has a really bad day, the slots & poker arms all get a big boost. Amazing, but true.

I see bookies getting abused verbally on here day after day, but they really ain't as daft as many think. It's a rare beast that beats them.  

The order of games would prob have been v important too. With Arsenal getting beaten in a regular kick off game it left Man Utd, Chelsea, Spurs and City as the four big teams still to play. There will have been huge amount of 4 timers placed between 5pm and the Man Utd game kicking off on Saturday simply because Arsenal had just knocked out a load of acca's and punters want to bet again.

If say Arsenal had been the teatime game on Saturday and Man Utd had been a reg time kick off then all the punters that had done it in and were now looking to bet the big Prem team 4 timer that would have now been Arsenal Chelsea Spurs and City the the bookies get the double bubble of the Sat night live TV game knocking out a load of accas running on to that and taking out all the new accas that were placed after their Saturday 3pm accas had lost.

I remember many years ago we priced up a match coupon on a Monday morning and they would be faxed to printers and then sent back for us to proof read before they were printed off and sent to all the Hills shops, really important that you don't have 1/2 instead of 2/1.( or indeed 66/1 for a first goalscorer that should have been 6/1 in an international match live on TV, as I once did)

The coupon to be approved came back and one of the guys shouted over 'Spurs game is live on TV on Saturday night according to the printers but we don't have it listed as live on our coupon. We had a look and it was indeed on TV and kicking off at 17.30 on Saturday. We then repriced the game for the shop coupons and trimmed Spurs from 8/13 to 8/15 simply because it was now the last Saturday game and on TV.

[horseplayer]

Does anybody have any more info on BETBRIGHT please?

They are on oddschecker so obviously ok

Anybody used them yet?

cheers

Have used them. Taken the freebie. Abused them, got paid and now ignore them!

thanks

the website looking like early 1990's worried me a bit

anyway done now doubt will use again

[Marky147]

Thanks Phil.


My gut feeling on the BF outright is that Cincy and Balti will go off the same or maybe Cinci will be one price behind Balti with Pitts around 2 prices behind them, maybe a bigger gap if the rb Bell is out/not fully fit for the start of the season. With Cincy you have the most stable team of the 3 main teams in the Div so if we are taking the 16/1 to win the Conf then the 23/10 to win the Div should be a bet too.

You mentioned having a stock of free bets to invest this week, obv there is lots of good racing coming up but this is prob the nut best week to 10 days to be taking advantage of the old NFL prices in a lot of fixed odds markets because the season starts in just over 2 weeks, so the firms will start looking at their markets again in around a week.

I don't want to throw money around. but we have such fun with these "season" bets, & NFL is so popular here, & has given us so much fun, so yes, I want to load up - to a point - on NFL before the Season starts, that gives us two good sports to take though the cold dark winter nights, Football & NFL.

I know this will make me look a clot, but I'm sure I'm not alone here - explain this please....

16/1 to win the Conf then the 23/10 to win the Div should be a bet too.

Division? Conference? The difference is?.......I can only think in English football terms.

The Division is 4 teams (AFC North), the Conference is 16 (AFC North, East, South and West), I think

This is the bet Phil is suggesting http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-north/winner

Top man Marky, but really I was fishing for a Tighty special - weather graphs, heavy rollers, stadium architects, average cheerleader age, that sort of thing.

Ha, unfortunately I can't help there.

[TightEnd]

p.s Cincinnati to win the div was on my list too, but 16/1 Conference was the real stand out price that was going to go quicker!

[tikay]

Can I also, on bobby1's thought process re stale prices

recommend a free bet goes on Kansas City to win the AFC West at 7-1 William Hill please?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-west/winner

Denver are 1-4, and prohibitive favourites

Since this market went up though Von Miller the superstar defender faces a six game ban. Dumervil has gone to the Ravens. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil had 155 QB pressures in 2012. The rest of the Broncos defense had 140.

there also season ending injuries on the offensive line too, and Denver are only ever a Peyton injury away from mediocrity imo

Kansas are another team that have been horrible for so long they have been able to draft lots of top ten talent

They have a bona fide running game with Jamaal Charles and this year drafted the top OL in a year where there were 12 OL in the first round

Alex Smith was supplanted by C K at San Fran but was much improved before he was injured. He can do whatis required

The defense is choc full of talent

The schedule is easier, the weaker teams from last year get swing games against other weak teams

All part of the NFL's process to make every team competitive.


Chargers are not going to win the division - no pass rush, no offensive line

Oakland have a roster that looks like an expansion team

In one of the weaker divisions 7-1 Kansas is great value but the sort of great value you don't necessarily expect to scoop the jolly but they'll be a lot closer than people think

I can't have Denver 1/4 after the run of bad news they have had, and make Kansas solid second favourites in one of the weaker divisions around

Done, thanks, perfect use of a Free Bet. I think.

AFC West, Kansas City Chiefs, £25 @ 7/1, FREE £25 BET REDEEMED

ON


06 Sep 2013 - AFC West - Division Winner - Division Winner

Kansas City Chiefs @ 7/1

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £

175.00

Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000530/F



Free bet redeemed

[Doobs]

Can I also, on bobby1's thought process re stale prices

recommend a free bet goes on Kansas City to win the AFC West at 7-1 William Hill please?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-west/winner

Denver are 1-4, and prohibitive favourites

Since this market went up though Von Miller the superstar defender faces a six game ban. Dumervil has gone to the Ravens. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil had 155 QB pressures in 2012. The rest of the Broncos defense had 140.

there also season ending injuries on the offensive line too, and Denver are only ever a Peyton injury away from mediocrity imo

Kansas are another team that have been horrible for so long they have been able to draft lots of top ten talent

They have a bona fide running game with Jamaal Charles and this year drafted the top OL in a year where there were 12 OL in the first round

Alex Smith was supplanted by C K at San Fran but was much improved before he was injured. He can do whatis required

The defense is choc full of talent

The schedule is easier, the weaker teams from last year get swing games against other weak teams

All part of the NFL's process to make every team competitive.


Chargers are not going to win the division - no pass rush, no offensive line

Oakland have a roster that looks like an expansion team

In one of the weaker divisions 7-1 Kansas is great value but the sort of great value you don't necessarily expect to scoop the jolly but they'll be a lot closer than people think

I can't have Denver 1/4 after the run of bad news they have had, and make Kansas solid second favourites in one of the weaker divisions around

Go ahead, but take one of the Ladbrokes freebies.  I think it expires first and we have two of them.  

[tikay]

Can I also, on bobby1's thought process re stale prices

recommend a free bet goes on Kansas City to win the AFC West at 7-1 William Hill please?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-west/winner

Denver are 1-4, and prohibitive favourites

Since this market went up though Von Miller the superstar defender faces a six game ban. Dumervil has gone to the Ravens. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil had 155 QB pressures in 2012. The rest of the Broncos defense had 140.

there also season ending injuries on the offensive line too, and Denver are only ever a Peyton injury away from mediocrity imo

Kansas are another team that have been horrible for so long they have been able to draft lots of top ten talent

They have a bona fide running game with Jamaal Charles and this year drafted the top OL in a year where there were 12 OL in the first round

Alex Smith was supplanted by C K at San Fran but was much improved before he was injured. He can do whatis required

The defense is choc full of talent

The schedule is easier, the weaker teams from last year get swing games against other weak teams

All part of the NFL's process to make every team competitive.


Chargers are not going to win the division - no pass rush, no offensive line

Oakland have a roster that looks like an expansion team

In one of the weaker divisions 7-1 Kansas is great value but the sort of great value you don't necessarily expect to scoop the jolly but they'll be a lot closer than people think

I can't have Denver 1/4 after the run of bad news they have had, and make Kansas solid second favourites in one of the weaker divisions around

Go ahead, but take one of the Ladbrokes freebies.  I think it expires first and we have two of them.  

Bugger. For once, I failed to dither.

[DungBeetle]

Holloway. Lovable. Promoted beyond his point of competence.

Love this

Alan Parry made a rather presumptuous statement during the commentary

"Everybody loves Ian Holloway"

He also seemed to think he had managed Palace for the whole of last season

I noticed that.  No Mr Parry, I don't "love" Mr Holloway.  I think the is an utter clown who puts the value of his own press in front of the good of his employers.

[tikay]

p.s Cincinnati to win the div was on my list too, but 16/1 Conference was the real stand out price that was going to go quicker!

Agreed.

I have already "reserved" Phil's bet @ 23/10 by taking it myself, & once he/we decides how much (as long as it is before the price drops) I'll transfer it to Fred.

[TightEnd]

which free bet did you use tikay?

p.s Kansas City are 4.93-1 on Betfair to win the div, fwiw (not too much yet)

but I do echo Phil's mthoughts on some stale prices. A lot has changed in pre-season for various teams, some big injuries and suspensions around