Tips for Tikay

[Karabiner]

I have done a little more work on the ew 16 runner issue and am now completely confident that a) I am right* and b) understand why there has been disagreement on the issue.

It’s clear to me that the books like to gamble that a race will end up with less than 16 runners and when they realise that this is unlikely to happen they cut their prices.  I do my research on sps so I see much less value as the cut has happened. Others look at early prices and see betfair arbs.  It is beyond me to assess the likelihood of withdrawn horses and apply a probability to it.  So this early value is always going to be a subjective matter and I apologise for being dogmatic about it but I do tend to dismiss things that can’t be easily quantified.

Going back to my approach, which is based on sp – ie close to the off – and comparison with betfair prices to assess the horses chance of winning.  I avoid the 15 runner issue but lose out on the perceived “early value”.  In today’s  3.05 I would only have found 3 marginal EV+ runners due to the shorter prices but avoided the 15 runner 4.55.

Since April 1st 932 horses have run in flat turf handicaps of 16 -18 runners.  Backing all those ew at SP of 20-1 or less would have  lost about 118 units.  Restricting the 20-1s or less to my more selective definition of value would have found 128 bets**  and a profit of 39 units.

Whose approach is “correct” can’t really be resolved but I’ve learned something about these races and hope that others have as well.

*this means not wrong lol
**obv I haven't done this

I love these debates we have. Anyone who does not improve their betting abilities from them is just not trying.

The boys have put me in some tough spots at times, (backing 80% of the field in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, I cacked myself), but I trust them, & they have walked the walk as well as talking the talk, & even I am getting the hang of it.

There will always be an advantage to the chaps with the biggest, fittest, fastest spiders though. 

You got any golf sweats this week?

I wonder if there are specialist spiders - for golf, football, horse racing, NFL?

i am learning and if i can have more days like today i might even have enough too start punishing the bookies
for the extra value at the moment all my bets are having too go through betfair but £100+ on there now
after betting the over 2.5 in the spurs and swansea games and andy dandy before his price shortened at wolves

just need too throw it all on a 5-1 shot and i can start spreading around the bookies
can't keep depositing and then withdrawing as it ties money up for 3-5 days

Well let's hope you don't run out of "o"s before variance kicks in.

[Doobs]

Basically the chances of there being a horse withdrawn and making our bet -ev is way way way way less than the +ev gained by placing the bet

Congrats on that being the 50,000th reply on Fred.

You win a replica Lord Grumpy spider.

Watch the replicas, I found they don't work nearly as well as the genuine article.  

A third of the way to 10k pages wins my copy of spreadsheets for dullards?

[Ironside]

I have done a little more work on the ew 16 runner issue and am now completely confident that a) I am right* and b) understand why there has been disagreement on the issue.

It’s clear to me that the books like to gamble that a race will end up with less than 16 runners and when they realise that this is unlikely to happen they cut their prices.  I do my research on sps so I see much less value as the cut has happened. Others look at early prices and see betfair arbs.  It is beyond me to assess the likelihood of withdrawn horses and apply a probability to it.  So this early value is always going to be a subjective matter and I apologise for being dogmatic about it but I do tend to dismiss things that can’t be easily quantified.

Going back to my approach, which is based on sp – ie close to the off – and comparison with betfair prices to assess the horses chance of winning.  I avoid the 15 runner issue but lose out on the perceived “early value”.  In today’s  3.05 I would only have found 3 marginal EV+ runners due to the shorter prices but avoided the 15 runner 4.55.

Since April 1st 932 horses have run in flat turf handicaps of 16 -18 runners.  Backing all those ew at SP of 20-1 or less would have  lost about 118 units.  Restricting the 20-1s or less to my more selective definition of value would have found 128 bets**  and a profit of 39 units.

Whose approach is “correct” can’t really be resolved but I’ve learned something about these races and hope that others have as well.

*this means not wrong lol
**obv I haven't done this

I love these debates we have. Anyone who does not improve their betting abilities from them is just not trying.

The boys have put me in some tough spots at times, (backing 80% of the field in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, I cacked myself), but I trust them, & they have walked the walk as well as talking the talk, & even I am getting the hang of it.

There will always be an advantage to the chaps with the biggest, fittest, fastest spiders though. 

You got any golf sweats this week?

I wonder if there are specialist spiders - for golf, football, horse racing, NFL?

i am learning and if i can have more days like today i might even have enough too start punishing the bookies
for the extra value at the moment all my bets are having too go through betfair but £100+ on there now
after betting the over 2.5 in the spurs and swansea games and andy dandy before his price shortened at wolves

just need too throw it all on a 5-1 shot and i can start spreading around the bookies
can't keep depositing and then withdrawing as it ties money up for 3-5 days

Well let's hope you don't run out of "o"s before variance kicks in.

tell me about it normally its kicked in well before now but atleast i am only messing about with profits thinking of taking some out already
but every time i have a bet on i am getting a high so just keeping it going for a little while yet if i get too £200 i might have 2nd thoughts
as that is a very good night out for me

[doubleup]

2 obvious points-

You don't need to bet at 8am before the race cuts up. You can bet anytime upto 15/20mins before the off before the bookies start taking the racetrack show
By doing this you can still have best price and makes the whole analysis of sp statistics irrelevant.

I'l happily bet 2/3ew per race everytime there is a 16/17 runner handicap if you lay me best price available on oddschecker for each runner @ 30mins before the off with best odds guaranteed if they drifted like every bookie offers these days. If it ends up 15 runners then 3 places and rule 4 plays

I'll look at the prices just before the course show in future, but I got the impression today that price were contracting a bit before the course show.  Its only going to be an opinion unless someone could get oddschecker data on the best book through the day.

[Ironside]

ok there is a 16 runner handicap at bellestown at 17.55 tonight (was 17 but there is a non runner)

the favourite is under 2-1

does this make for a good each way bet and if so which horses represent value?

I know nothing about any of the horses but you would never go wrong betting the 2nd fav in a race like that ew. 11/2 VC

Similar price but market super weak on bf

i love you

just looking at the results the horse i back must of been heavyly backed went off as 7/4 fav

[Dubai]

Yes it was 11/2 into 7/4. Obv would have been a max if anyone had known that

[Longy]

It's impossible to keep up with the sheer range of bets on but anyway


Bengals

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/08/22/bengals-suddenly-getting-the-star-treatment/

This means you are likely to see them live on Sky on Sunday nights in the first few weeks of the season
Tough start at Chicago, will get a flavour of that defense on the opening day


Texas A and M

Meanwhile Manziel is the number 2 QB in pre-season training behind Aaron Murray, who I believe is a freshamn

Good news for the bet of under 9.5 wins this season in the SEC

Aaron Murray is the Georgia qb, no?

oh. Scratches head.

Ah this seems to be the misunderstanding

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9591502/johnny-manziel-texas-not-named-sec-first-team

[JaffaCake]

No celeb BB bet yet? Chompy must be busy

[Ironside]

No celeb BB bet yet? Chompy must be busy

he was too busy getting all the double figure odds he could on charlotte too post
so much so PP has gone from the 16/1 he first tipped too 13/8

[Marky147]

No celeb BB bet yet? Chompy must be busy

he was too busy getting all the double figure odds he could on charlotte too post
so much so PP has gone from the 16/1 he first tipped too 13/8

Don't exaggerate!


There is still some 5/2 available with Laddies

[Ironside]

No celeb BB bet yet? Chompy must be busy

he was too busy getting all the double figure odds he could on charlotte too post
so much so PP has gone from the 16/1 he first tipped too 13/8

Don't exaggerate!


There is still some 5/2 available with Laddies

7/2 on betfair i am so tempted too max bet

[horseplayer]

Anybody thinking of betting at York tommorow

Ground was watered heavily last night

Tonight there are storms apparently not seen in York for a fair while

No idea what the ground will be like tommorow with a dry hot day forecast

Due to rain all night Friday and then all day Saturday as well even less idea what it will be by then

[Tal]

Just turned over to channel five in light of JaffaCake's comment. Managed ten seconds.

I now need a new TV.

And a powerful detergent to get bile juices out of carpet.

And a new pair of ungouged eyes.

Rosie Webster off of Corrie asked for her opinion on whether someone from Dublin Wines is going to be the alpha female leans back and asks what that means. The spitting image puppet and the woman struggling to make sense of the lights and shapes most presenters call an autocue do their best to muddle through an explanation.

Chompy, tell me how I make money, please, so I don't have to punch kittens in the face. These are the two options.

[Tal]

I do try not to be bitchy and personal on blonde and I like to keep a handle on my language, but what a load of bollocks!

[Marky147]

Anybody thinking of betting at York tommorow

Ground was watered heavily last night

Tonight there are storms apparently not seen in York for a fair while

No idea what the ground will be like tommorow with a dry hot day forecast

Due to rain all night Friday and then all day Saturday as well even less idea what it will be by then

I backed Bishop Roko ante post for the Ebor, and the trainer has said that he won't be running unless it rains, so more please.