Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

#Timing

[JaffaCake]

I just flicked on Bet365 to check something at the same time as watching the cricket, when England were using a fielding formation I've never seen - all nine fielders on the boundary. They bet ball for ball there....what price would u like to see for each individual ball (all as diff events) to go for more than 0.5 runs (ie not be a dot)? They were going 2/1 each ball! Think the Aussies took 6 singles in 7 balls before the price started to come down. I still kept  backing it even as it reached evens, it got to 10/11 before they took the market down.

I made 12 bets while the fun lasted, 10 were winners (think the other two were bouncers, plus I missed the odd one as the prices changes and markets were taken down). Is this normal?! I think I should play this market every end of innings, just increased my account balance by over 50%!

[Ironside]

ok there is a 16 runner handicap at bellestown at 17.55 tonight (was 17 but there is a non runner)

the favourite is under 2-1

does this make for a good each way bet and if so which horses represent value?

I know nothing about any of the horses but you would never go wrong betting the 2nd fav in a race like that ew. 11/2 VC

Similar price but market super weak on bf

i love you

[tikay]

I just flicked on Bet365 to check something at the same time as watching the cricket, when England were using a fielding formation I've never seen - all nine fielders on the boundary. They bet ball for ball there....what price would u like to see for each individual ball (all as diff events) to go for more than 0.5 runs (ie not be a dot)? They were going 2/1 each ball! Think the Aussies took 6 singles in 7 balls before the price started to come down. I still kept  backing it even as it reached evens, it got to 10/11 before they took the market down.

I made 12 bets while the fun lasted, 10 were winners (think the other two were bouncers, plus I missed the odd one as the prices changes and markets were taken down). Is this normal?! I think I should play this market every end of innings, just increased my account balance by over 50%!

It was a very odd field setting, Jeff, specific to an odd situation. Normally, 2/1 would be a bad bet I think. The stats should prove it easily, one way or another. Sounds like Bet365 took their eye off the ball.

Excellent timing by you though.

[JaffaCake]

Yeh I think it was specific to that field and the situation where they're playing shots at every ball before a declaration. These days they often average three point something in Test cricket, but if u take boundaries into consideration then 2/1 must be bad on an average delibvery plucked at any time, but there it seemed excellent....one to mentally note for the future

[Rubbish2407]

Pick a little was off the bridle after about ten yards and would have come stone last if another hadn't stopped running with a furlong to go. Oh well, hope nobody followed me in.

[Tal]

http://www.realmadridshop.com/stores/realmadrid/products/product_browse.aspx?category%7ccategory_root%7c8536=Football%20Kits#&&/wEXAQUIUXVlcnlVUkwFgAJmaF9lZHM9JWMzJTlmJmZoX3ZpZXdfc2l6ZT0yNCZmaF9yZWZ2aWV3PWxpc3RlciZmaF9yZWZwYXRoPWZhY2V0XzE2JmZoX3JlZmZhY2V0PWNhdGVnb3JpZXMmZmhfbG9jYXRpb249JTJmJTJmcmVhbG1hZHJpZCUyZmVuX0dCJTJmY2F0ZWdvcmllcyUzYyU3YnJlYWxtYWRyaWRfODUzNiU3ZCUyZmNhdGVnb3JpZXMlM2MlN2JyZWFsbWFkcmlkXzg1MzZfMjM3NjYlN2QlMmZjYXRlZ29yaWVzJTNjJTdicmVhbG1hZHJpZF84NTM2XzIzNzY2XzIzODM4JTdkGl1wEXiVnPXXCmhFR+4aigOeRFQ=

Might be a clue...

[doubleup]

I have done a little more work on the ew 16 runner issue and am now completely confident that a) I am right* and b) understand why there has been disagreement on the issue.

It’s clear to me that the books like to gamble that a race will end up with less than 16 runners and when they realise that this is unlikely to happen they cut their prices.  I do my research on sps so I see much less value as the cut has happened. Others look at early prices and see betfair arbs.  It is beyond me to assess the likelihood of withdrawn horses and apply a probability to it.  So this early value is always going to be a subjective matter and I apologise for being dogmatic about it but I do tend to dismiss things that can’t be easily quantified.

Going back to my approach, which is based on sp – ie close to the off – and comparison with betfair prices to assess the horses chance of winning.  I avoid the 15 runner issue but lose out on the perceived “early value”.  In today’s  3.05 I would only have found 3 marginal EV+ runners due to the shorter prices but avoided the 15 runner 4.55.

Since April 1st 932 horses have run in flat turf handicaps of 16 -18 runners.  Backing all those ew at SP of 20-1 or less would have  lost about 118 units.  Restricting the 20-1s or less to my more selective definition of value would have found 128 bets**  and a profit of 39 units.

Whose approach is “correct” can’t really be resolved but I’ve learned something about these races and hope that others have as well.


*this means not wrong lol
**obv I haven't done this

[tikay]

I have done a little more work on the ew 16 runner issue and am now completely confident that a) I am right* and b) understand why there has been disagreement on the issue.

It’s clear to me that the books like to gamble that a race will end up with less than 16 runners and when they realise that this is unlikely to happen they cut their prices.  I do my research on sps so I see much less value as the cut has happened. Others look at early prices and see betfair arbs.  It is beyond me to assess the likelihood of withdrawn horses and apply a probability to it.  So this early value is always going to be a subjective matter and I apologise for being dogmatic about it but I do tend to dismiss things that can’t be easily quantified.

Going back to my approach, which is based on sp – ie close to the off – and comparison with betfair prices to assess the horses chance of winning.  I avoid the 15 runner issue but lose out on the perceived “early value”.  In today’s  3.05 I would only have found 3 marginal EV+ runners due to the shorter prices but avoided the 15 runner 4.55.

Since April 1st 932 horses have run in flat turf handicaps of 16 -18 runners.  Backing all those ew at SP of 20-1 or less would have  lost about 118 units.  Restricting the 20-1s or less to my more selective definition of value would have found 128 bets**  and a profit of 39 units.

Whose approach is “correct” can’t really be resolved but I’ve learned something about these races and hope that others have as well.

*this means not wrong lol
**obv I haven't done this

I love these debates we have. Anyone who does not improve their betting abilities from them is just not trying.

The boys have put me in some tough spots at times, (backing 80% of the field in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, I cacked myself), but I trust them, & they have walked the walk as well as talking the talk, & even I am getting the hang of it.

There will always be an advantage to the chaps with the biggest, fittest, fastest spiders though. 

You got any golf sweats this week?

I wonder if there are specialist spiders - for golf, football, horse racing, NFL?

[Ironside]

I have done a little more work on the ew 16 runner issue and am now completely confident that a) I am right* and b) understand why there has been disagreement on the issue.

It’s clear to me that the books like to gamble that a race will end up with less than 16 runners and when they realise that this is unlikely to happen they cut their prices.  I do my research on sps so I see much less value as the cut has happened. Others look at early prices and see betfair arbs.  It is beyond me to assess the likelihood of withdrawn horses and apply a probability to it.  So this early value is always going to be a subjective matter and I apologise for being dogmatic about it but I do tend to dismiss things that can’t be easily quantified.

Going back to my approach, which is based on sp – ie close to the off – and comparison with betfair prices to assess the horses chance of winning.  I avoid the 15 runner issue but lose out on the perceived “early value”.  In today’s  3.05 I would only have found 3 marginal EV+ runners due to the shorter prices but avoided the 15 runner 4.55.

Since April 1st 932 horses have run in flat turf handicaps of 16 -18 runners.  Backing all those ew at SP of 20-1 or less would have  lost about 118 units.  Restricting the 20-1s or less to my more selective definition of value would have found 128 bets**  and a profit of 39 units.

Whose approach is “correct” can’t really be resolved but I’ve learned something about these races and hope that others have as well.

*this means not wrong lol
**obv I haven't done this

I love these debates we have. Anyone who does not improve their betting abilities from them is just not trying.

The boys have put me in some tough spots at times, (backing 80% of the field in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, I cacked myself), but I trust them, & they have walked the walk as well as talking the talk, & even I am getting the hang of it.

There will always be an advantage to the chaps with the biggest, fittest, fastest spiders though. 

You got any golf sweats this week?

I wonder if there are specialist spiders - for golf, football, horse racing, NFL?

i am learning and if i can have more days like today i might even have enough too start punishing the bookies
for the extra value at the moment all my bets are having too go through betfair but £100+ on there now
after betting the over 2.5 in the spurs and swansea games and andy dandy before his price shortened at wolves

just need too throw it all on a 5-1 shot and i can start spreading around the bookies
can't keep depositing and then withdrawing as it ties money up for 3-5 days

[MahoganyVic]

Others look at early prices and see betfair arbs.  It is beyond me to assess the likelihood of withdrawn horses and apply a probability to it.  So this early value is always going to be a subjective matter and I apologise for being dogmatic about it but I do tend to dismiss things that can’t be easily quantified.

I think this is something which can't be dismissed. If the weather looks unlikely to have suddenly change/ there has not been  any severe weather in the days leading up, it seem to me that it is rare to get a 17 or 18 runner field down to 15.

The industry SP's will almost always be lower than the betfair SP and very rarely will they be within half a point on 5/1+ shots, whereas earlier in the day you can probably get on several horses for win prices the same or extremely close to betfair.

[Dubai]

2 obvious points-

You don't need to bet at 8am before the race cuts up. You can bet anytime upto 15/20mins before the off before the bookies start taking the racetrack show
By doing this you can still have best price and makes the whole analysis of sp statistics irrelevant.

I'l happily bet 2/3ew per race everytime there is a 16/17 runner handicap if you lay me best price available on oddschecker for each runner @ 30mins before the off with best odds guaranteed if they drifted like every bookie offers these days. If it ends up 15 runners then 3 places and rule 4 plays

[Dubai]

Basically the chances of there being a horse withdrawn and making our bet -ev is way way way way less than the +ev gained by placing the bet

[tikay]

Basically the chances of there being a horse withdrawn and making our bet -ev is way way way way less than the +ev gained by placing the bet

Congrats on that being the 50,000th reply on Fred.

You win a replica Lord Grumpy spider.

[Karabiner]

Pick a little was off the bridle after about ten yards and would have come stone last if another hadn't stopped running with a furlong to go. Oh well, hope nobody followed me in.

I left this one alone but I follow you religiously when it comes to cycling.