Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Out of interest Tony how do you feel about having about 300 or so quid on a low volatile long term NFL market?

Love them, perfect for the NFL season, and Tighty loves reporting on that sort of stuff.

Order the Right Guard.

do you want the short version of just the bets or the long version laying out why I like em?

Be interesting to know the thought process, Phil.

Any chance we can join you on your NFL Holiday this year?...... Sounds incredible!

You night regret that by the time I have finished going on.

Not at all. Need as much info as possible from you.

Who do you think will be the best value players this season for...oh, I don't know...a fantasy NFL competition?

[The Camel]

Don't know if Hector has already made a suggestion or not, but Wiganv Hull will be massively one-sided towards Hull tomorrow night. Wigan are resting 12 of the players who played last weekend, including the key players.

Hull -4pts was evens earlier, which is a license to print money. It's 1.91 now, which is still massive value imo. Hector?

So tilting that rugby league handicaps still have the tie

[kinboshi]

Don't know if Hector has already made a suggestion or not, but Wiganv Hull will be massively one-sided towards Hull tomorrow night. Wigan are resting 12 of the players who played last weekend, including the key players.

Hull -4pts was evens earlier, which is a license to print money. It's 1.91 now, which is still massive value imo. Hector?

So tilting that rugby league handicaps still have the tie

Some don't (they have half points in the handicap), but wouldn't worry about it for this match. Hull will win by plenty.

[The Camel]

Don't know if Hector has already made a suggestion or not, but Wiganv Hull will be massively one-sided towards Hull tomorrow night. Wigan are resting 12 of the players who played last weekend, including the key players.

Hull -4pts was evens earlier, which is a license to print money. It's 1.91 now, which is still massive value imo. Hector?

So tilting that rugby league handicaps still have the tie

Some don't (they have half points in the handicap), but wouldn't worry about it for this match. Hull will win by plenty.

According to this they all do

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/super-league/wigan-v-hull/handicaps

[kinboshi]

Don't know if Hector has already made a suggestion or not, but Wiganv Hull will be massively one-sided towards Hull tomorrow night. Wigan are resting 12 of the players who played last weekend, including the key players.

Hull -4pts was evens earlier, which is a license to print money. It's 1.91 now, which is still massive value imo. Hector?

So tilting that rugby league handicaps still have the tie

Some don't (they have half points in the handicap), but wouldn't worry about it for this match. Hull will win by plenty.

According to this they all do

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/super-league/wigan-v-hull/handicaps

Yeah, I saw that. Maybe I'm mistaken and it's just the winning margin bets that include the half points?

[Waz1892]

Don't know if Hector has already made a suggestion or not, but Wiganv Hull will be massively one-sided towards Hull tomorrow night. Wigan are resting 12 of the players who played last weekend, including the key players.

Hull -4pts was evens earlier, which is a license to print money. It's 1.91 now, which is still massive value imo. Hector?

So tilting that rugby league handicaps still have the tie

Some don't (they have half points in the handicap), but wouldn't worry about it for this match. Hull will win by plenty.

According to this they all do

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/super-league/wigan-v-hull/handicaps

Yeah, I saw that. Maybe I'm mistaken and it's just the winning margin bets that include the half points?

why will wigan be resting that many players?

[malt vinegar]

bet365 have got hull -4.5 10/11

[kinboshi]

Don't know if Hector has already made a suggestion or not, but Wiganv Hull will be massively one-sided towards Hull tomorrow night. Wigan are resting 12 of the players who played last weekend, including the key players.

Hull -4pts was evens earlier, which is a license to print money. It's 1.91 now, which is still massive value imo. Hector?

So tilting that rugby league handicaps still have the tie

Some don't (they have half points in the handicap), but wouldn't worry about it for this match. Hull will win by plenty.

According to this they all do

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/super-league/wigan-v-hull/handicaps

Yeah, I saw that. Maybe I'm mistaken and it's just the winning margin bets that include the half points?

why will wigan be resting that many players?

Because the play-off system is beyond a joke. It doesn't really matter  where you finish in the league (as long you finish in the top 5) ,  it's about how you perform in the knock out stages.

No point risking players now, and those carrying niggles are being given a chance to recover before the key games.

Daft system, and the sooner they change it the better. Would you want to go to a match to watch your reserve team play? Would you buy a season ticket when all the important matches fall outside the games covered by the season ticket?

[kinboshi]

bet365 have got hull -4.5 10/11

Maybe I'm mistaken about being mistaken...

[bobby1]

Hi mate,

There is a market I like a lot for various reasons in the NFL season called 'Who will throw the most passing yards'

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/regular-season/most-passing-yards

It is bet a qtr the odds the first 4 by some firms and for me  it is a market that isn't as competitive as it looks and I deffo wouldn't want to be laying a qtr the first 4 places. I really can't see more than 7 or 8 players winning this although there might be one or 2 others that could threaten the places.

There are a few things to look for imo outside the actual QB, you want one that plays for a team that pass a lot(obv) that has a bad or average running game and/or top quality passing options. A team that has a bad/average D is perfect too because you want your men to be playing in higher scoring games or games that their D is going to put them in a position that they need to score or attack a lot to stay in the game. Playing lots of games in a dome is a help too as it takes away the weather angle later in the year. Obv it is v difficult to get all of those but some or most will be an advantage.

Last year it was won by Drew Brees of New Orleans mainly because their D was so bad and he spent a lot of time trying to keep them in games. They threw 671 passes thru the season which was the 2nd highest passing attempts that season. This year they have already lost a few D players already and have taken 2 guys in the last few days to give them some D depth. They have enough wr options and top class tight end but also have a good quality pass catching rb and an average running game. There is also something called  a strength of schedule rating which is a ranking of how tough your schedule is in relation to how those teams performed last season. The rank gives them the 3rd hardest schedule this year, which is good for the bet. Harder games more likely to be having to pass the ball to be competitive.

So rec £80 each way at 3/1 1/4 the first 4 , must be those place terms. The 3/4 he finishes in the top 4 is v good.

[Waz1892]

Don't know if Hector has already made a suggestion or not, but Wiganv Hull will be massively one-sided towards Hull tomorrow night. Wigan are resting 12 of the players who played last weekend, including the key players.

Hull -4pts was evens earlier, which is a license to print money. It's 1.91 now, which is still massive value imo. Hector?

So tilting that rugby league handicaps still have the tie

Some don't (they have half points in the handicap), but wouldn't worry about it for this match. Hull will win by plenty.

According to this they all do

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/super-league/wigan-v-hull/handicaps

Yeah, I saw that. Maybe I'm mistaken and it's just the winning margin bets that include the half points?

why will wigan be resting that many players?

Because the play-off system is beyond a joke. It doesn't really matter  where you finish in the league (as long you finish in the top 5) ,  it's about how you perform in the knock out stages.

No point risking players now, and those carrying niggles are being given a chance to recover before the key games.

Daft system, and the sooner they change it the better. Would you want to go to a match to watch your reserve team play? Would you buy a season ticket when all the important matches fall outside the games covered by the season ticket?

that's utter madness?!! but thanks for the answer! no idea about Rugby league

[bobby1]

Last year Detroit's pass D was v v bad and Matthew Stafford threw the ball a league high 740 times, this year their pass D again looks to be their weak point. The real difference tho is they have signed one of the best pass catching rb in the lge in Reggie Bush. Their wr had the most rec yards in the league last season, this year they have a nice depth at wr with Broyles, Burleson and a guy they really like called Pat Edwards and two decent pass catching TE's. Their schedule this season does have quite a few outdoor games but it did last season too and Stafford threw for just under 5000 yards to finish 2nd in this market. He has more weapons this year and their strength of schedule ranking is the 2nd hardest.

rec £50 each way at 6/1 1/4  the first four places, Sky are 13/2 4 places and some firsm are 7/1 but only 3 places. The 6/1 4 places is fine.

[bobby1]

Atlanta have a tremendous staring O with 2 top class wr and a hall of fame TE. They threw the ball 615 times last year and led the league in pass completion % at just under 70%. Their running game kinda fell apart with Turner's legs leaving him and the big problem they had was Turner was not a pass catching rb. They have made a tremendous off season signing in Steve Jackson to play rb, he is a proper all round rushing and pass catching rb. He is such a big upgrade to them in the passing game from Turner and Jac Rogers. They finished 6th in this market last year but have improved their passing options with Jackson. The will certainly run more this year as they ranked 4th from bottom in rushing attempts last year but they just tick all the boxes. Their away games are pretty good too, as the only play 2 proper away games after Nov 17th in bad weather cities and one of their away games is in Toronto on and artificial pitch in Buffalo's Canadian (home) game. Good news is they play in the same Div as New Orleans so we get 2 games this season against each other which should be end to end.

rec £33 each way Matt Ryan at 10/1 1/4 the first 4 ( he is 12/1 with Sky which is v good but 10/1 is still good)


The others near the top of the market are Manning who will get plenty of yards but Denver have a pretty soft schedule so less lkely to be playing from behind or in as many close matches tho they do have loads of pass catching options. Brady has lost a lot of his main targets from last year, Lloyd has left Welker replaced by Amendola which wont hurt too much if he stays fit. Gronk just cannot get fit and Hernandez is in jail. Even Danny Woodhead is a loss in the pass catching. They need to find a lot of players to step up to the mark.

Dallas and Green Bay look to have O line problems ( these are Tighty's words btw as I ran it by him first) tho Romo almost won this last year because he lost his only decent rb and they were playing catch up in a lot of games. That might happen again but he might need protecting better, Rodgers is class and they are down to one possibly v good rb but in a Div that has three teams with v good pass rushing teams he is going to be on his toes in those games if the O line is again poor. Tho Stafford is in he same Div too.

So, to recap we have three QB on strong O teams, that play in domes, whose passing options have either increased by the personnel they have added or/and they have frail D's that were all in the top 6 for team passing yards last season.

[bobby1]

The market is 50/1 bar the front ten and I wouldn't bet some of those bigger prices at double their odds tho someone did suggest Carson Palmer a few weeks ago as value in this market ( he is 50/1 14 the first 4) I didn't think it was too good but since then Arizona have got banged up at rb and lost some D players so it might be an ok bet at that price if you did want to take that gents selection too.

If we get two of the three recs placed we will lose around 60 or 70 quid, only one placed about 200 quid. A winner and a place will win about 250 quid, just the winner is a winner so it is a low volatility market given we have 3 runners. Obv injuries might play a part but there are 32 teams in the lge so we have more chance of getting other QB's injured than our three and if one of ours does go down it means the others have a better chance of winning.

The last round of pre season games take place tonight but 2 of our guys seem to be resting up and the other one might play but it wont be for long so I have put em up now instead of waiting.

I could have gone on more, sorry if it is all tldr.

cheers

[Doobs]

I have done a trawl on the Deutsche Bank Championship golf, and though I managed to find 6 golfers worth a bet, the prices had all gone by the time I went to the bookies sites.  I am guessing this is because they are all easy arbs, and the Bookies are picking up on them quicker than I can.  You have a Betfair place market that is 5 places, so it is easier to see if quarter the odds first 5 is bigger than Betfair.

Not to be put off, I think we should still try and get a sweat going.  I think we have a couple of £25 free bets with Hills. They offfer Adam Scott at 11/1 vs 12/1 on Betfair, so the price isn't far off.  He is having an exceptional year with a couple of wins (The Masters and last week's Barclays).  He also has a couple of 3rds, including the Open, and was 5th in the PGA.  He has been very consistent, so hopefully we'll at least get a sweat going in to the last round.

FWIW You could arb a Tiger Woods in in a few places when I looked, with the 7/1 on offer at the bookies beating Betfair.  I haven't backed him, but thought it worth a mention.