Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

The market is 50/1 bar the front ten and I wouldn't bet some of those bigger prices at double their odds tho someone did suggest Carson Palmer a few weeks ago as value in this market ( he is 50/1 14 the first 4) I didn't think it was too good but since then Arizona have got banged up at rb and lost some D players so it might be an ok bet at that price if you did want to take that gents selection too.

If we get two of the three recs placed we will lose around 60 or 70 quid, only one placed about 200 quid. A winner and a place will win about 250 quid, just the winner is a winner so it is a low volatility market given we have 3 runners. Obv injuries might play a part but there are 32 teams in the lge so we have more chance of getting other QB's injured than our three and if one of ours does go down it means the others have a better chance of winning.

The last round of pre season games take place tonight but 2 of our guys seem to be resting up and the other one might play but it wont be for long so I have put em up now instead of waiting.

I could have gone on more, sorry if it is all tldr.

cheers

I absolutely agree it's a great each way betting heat 1/4 1,2,3,4 and Brees at 3/1 is a really good bet.

I like Rodgers at 10/1 though. Not much running game in GB and two fantastic weapons at WR in Jones and Cobb. Don't think the O line will be as bad as you reckon.

Defense is looking like being poor, and they could be playing from behind quite a bit

I would make Rodgers nearly second fav in this market.

[the sicilian]

The market is 50/1 bar the front ten and I wouldn't bet some of those bigger prices at double their odds tho someone did suggest Carson Palmer a few weeks ago as value in this market ( he is 50/1 14 the first 4) I didn't think it was too good but since then Arizona have got banged up at rb and lost some D players so it might be an ok bet at that price if you did want to take that gents selection too.

If we get two of the three recs placed we will lose around 60 or 70 quid, only one placed about 200 quid. A winner and a place will win about 250 quid, just the winner is a winner so it is a low volatility market given we have 3 runners. Obv injuries might play a part but there are 32 teams in the lge so we have more chance of getting other QB's injured than our three and if one of ours does go down it means the others have a better chance of winning.

The last round of pre season games take place tonight but 2 of our guys seem to be resting up and the other one might play but it wont be for long so I have put em up now instead of waiting.

I could have gone on more, sorry if it is all tldr.

cheers

I absolutely agree it's a great each way betting heat 1/4 1,2,3,4 and Brees at 3/1 is a really good bet.

I like Rodgers at 10/1 though. Not much running game in GB and two fantastic weapons at WR in Jones and Cobb. Don't think the O line will be as bad as you reckon.

Defense is looking like being poor, and they could be playing from behind quite a bit

I would make Rodgers nearly second fav in this market.

I like Luck to break into the top 4 in his 2nd season... play in the dome and nearly all away games in good weather..plus a few more options this year hopefully with less drops...loved watching him last year..has the potential to be one of the best ever... 20/1 has to be a great ew?

[redarmi]

I have done a trawl on the Deutsche Bank Championship golf, and though I managed to find 6 golfers worth a bet, the prices had all gone by the time I went to the bookies sites.  I am guessing this is because they are all easy arbs, and the Bookies are picking up on them quicker than I can.  You have a Betfair place market that is 5 places, so it is easier to see if quarter the odds first 5 is bigger than Betfair.

Not to be put off, I think we should still try and get a sweat going.  I think we have a couple of £25 free bets with Hills. They offfer Adam Scott at 11/1 vs 12/1 on Betfair, so the price isn't far off.  He is having an exceptional year with a couple of wins (The Masters and last week's Barclays).  He also has a couple of 3rds, including the Open, and was 5th in the PGA.  He has been very consistent, so hopefully we'll at least get a sweat going in to the last round.

FWIW You could arb a Tiger Woods in in a few places when I looked, with the 7/1 on offer at the bookies beating Betfair.  I haven't backed him, but thought it worth a mention.

I have backed Scott EW at 12/1 and think he is a really good bet.  Tiger is carrying an injury and Scott is playing incredibly well this year.  I thought he should be close to favourite albeit that Tiger should probably be bigger too.  I don't think it is a huge bet but I don't really see any way it isn't small value.

[Doobs]

I have done a trawl on the Deutsche Bank Championship golf, and though I managed to find 6 golfers worth a bet, the prices had all gone by the time I went to the bookies sites.  I am guessing this is because they are all easy arbs, and the Bookies are picking up on them quicker than I can.  You have a Betfair place market that is 5 places, so it is easier to see if quarter the odds first 5 is bigger than Betfair.

Not to be put off, I think we should still try and get a sweat going.  I think we have a couple of £25 free bets with Hills. They offfer Adam Scott at 11/1 vs 12/1 on Betfair, so the price isn't far off.  He is having an exceptional year with a couple of wins (The Masters and last week's Barclays).  He also has a couple of 3rds, including the Open, and was 5th in the PGA.  He has been very consistent, so hopefully we'll at least get a sweat going in to the last round.

FWIW You could arb a Tiger Woods in in a few places when I looked, with the 7/1 on offer at the bookies beating Betfair.  I haven't backed him, but thought it worth a mention.

I have backed Scott EW at 12/1 and think he is a really good bet.  Tiger is carrying an injury and Scott is playing incredibly well this year.  I thought he should be close to favourite albeit that Tiger should probably be bigger too.  I don't think it is a huge bet but I don't really see any way it isn't small value.

He is now 12/1 on Betfair.  Think we should go for it.  You can get 12/1 e/w with 5 places on Boyles and PP.  PP are also doing money back if he gets 6th to 10th.  If we can get on with either suggest £25 e/w at 12/1 to go with the free bet.  Go PP first as you get the added value.

[tikay]

I have done a trawl on the Deutsche Bank Championship golf, and though I managed to find 6 golfers worth a bet, the prices had all gone by the time I went to the bookies sites.  I am guessing this is because they are all easy arbs, and the Bookies are picking up on them quicker than I can.  You have a Betfair place market that is 5 places, so it is easier to see if quarter the odds first 5 is bigger than Betfair.

Not to be put off, I think we should still try and get a sweat going.  I think we have a couple of £25 free bets with Hills. They offfer Adam Scott at 11/1 vs 12/1 on Betfair, so the price isn't far off.  He is having an exceptional year with a couple of wins (The Masters and last week's Barclays).  He also has a couple of 3rds, including the Open, and was 5th in the PGA.  He has been very consistent, so hopefully we'll at least get a sweat going in to the last round.

FWIW You could arb a Tiger Woods in in a few places when I looked, with the 7/1 on offer at the bookies beating Betfair.  I haven't backed him, but thought it worth a mention.

I have backed Scott EW at 12/1 and think he is a really good bet.  Tiger is carrying an injury and Scott is playing incredibly well this year.  I thought he should be close to favourite albeit that Tiger should probably be bigger too.  I don't think it is a huge bet but I don't really see any way it isn't small value.

He is now 12/1 on Betfair.  Think we should go for it.  You can get 12/1 e/w with 5 places on Boyles and PP.  PP are also doing money back if he gets 6th to 10th.  If we can get on with either suggest £25 e/w at 12/1 to go with the free bet.  Go PP first as you get the added value.

Thanks Doobs.

My only problem with that (not a real prob) is that I don't find him much fun to watch, or even interesting in any way. But if he can deliver us a nice win, I'd be able to cope, I'm sure.

Complications. Always complications. Retired early, last night, fatigued, so missed this, & now PP only go 11/1 (but with the "Money Back" concession), whereas Boylesports still go 12/1. I fired up my algorithm, did some complex algebraic equations, & checked the price of eggs, & deduced that...... there is not much in it, & so I took the 11/1. That was a good decision, yeah? Right? Yeah, thought so.

We have £25 EW @ 11/1, (qtr, 1,2,3,4,5) Paddy Power, Adam Scott to win the Deutsche Bank thing.


ON
Deutsche Bank Championship Deutsche Bank Championship Outright Betting
30-08-2013 12:40
Outright Betting
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3,4,5
Scott, Adam @ 11/1


When placing an E/W bet, your total stake will be double the amount you enter in the stake box.
Single: Scott, Adam @ 11/1
2 lines at £25.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
 Potential returns: £393.75
No: O/23146337/0000348
 

[tikay]

PS to above Post.

The relevant T & C's of that Golf bet are.....


Applies to single bets placed on the tournament outright before the start. 
Place refers to Top 5 finish, including ties. 
Applies to place part of each way bets only. 
Max Refund €100/£100. 

[BigAdz]

Loves the weeks when Tiger has  "an injury".
Suddenly all those outsiders you love to stick a cheeky fiver or tenner on at outrageous odds look much better at 650-1!
Waiting for tiger to hit that slightly off centre shot out of the rough and the follow through turns into a twirling end to the swing above the head and the ritual club drop(harder too do if you actually have injured yourself)just makes me laugh because you know it's coming, quickly followed by some expletive and a hobble.
Then remarkably the same shot will be played a few holes later, and it comes off the middle of the club, goes close, no pain, no dramatics, and the commentators all fawn over how brave and strong he is.
Tiger "injury" weeks.....love em.

GL with Scott

[tikay]

The market is 50/1 bar the front ten and I wouldn't bet some of those bigger prices at double their odds tho someone did suggest Carson Palmer a few weeks ago as value in this market ( he is 50/1 14 the first 4) I didn't think it was too good but since then Arizona have got banged up at rb and lost some D players so it might be an ok bet at that price if you did want to take that gents selection too.

If we get two of the three recs placed we will lose around 60 or 70 quid, only one placed about 200 quid. A winner and a place will win about 250 quid, just the winner is a winner so it is a low volatility market given we have 3 runners. Obv injuries might play a part but there are 32 teams in the lge so we have more chance of getting other QB's injured than our three and if one of ours does go down it means the others have a better chance of winning.

The last round of pre season games take place tonight but 2 of our guys seem to be resting up and the other one might play but it wont be for long so I have put em up now instead of waiting.

I could have gone on more, sorry if it is all tldr.

cheers

I absolutely agree it's a great each way betting heat 1/4 1,2,3,4 and Brees at 3/1 is a really good bet.

I like Rodgers at 10/1 though. Not much running game in GB and two fantastic weapons at WR in Jones and Cobb. Don't think the O line will be as bad as you reckon.

Defense is looking like being poor, and they could be playing from behind quite a bit

I would make Rodgers nearly second fav in this market.

Keith.

I've done the three that Phil suggested.

Do the maths of the bet allow us to bet Rodgers as well?

Can't quite believe that Lord Grumpy or Mr Dubai has not been on & said we should back 26 different players, Sun Alliance style, as the EW terms mean we must PUNISH.

[tikay]

From Butter Me Up........


The UEFA Super Cup between Champions League winners Bayern and the Europa League winners Chelsea gets underway in Prague on Friday evening. Expecting a close contest? Bet now and we’ll give you your money back* if your Correct Score, First/Last Goalscorer and Scorecast bets don’t win and the game goes to penalties.

[Tal]

Tal's Ice Cream Question of the Day

Bobby1 recommends backing Brees each way at a quarter at 3/1. This means, if he finishes second, say, we get 3/4. But this means we lose money on the bet, because of our lost win bet.

I've seen this a few times in Fred, particularly with horse tips, where a place loses money overall.

Can't we just back place only?

If I can attempt to answer my own question, I take it we are treating the win and the place as separate bets, where each is a value price. By this reasoning, the bet on the win is of itself a value bet, so not doing it is missing out on EV return. I appreciate some bookies might not offer place only, too.

As a punter, I want to be happy when I win a bet, else I'll just spend the money on shoes. Here, I might win but be worse off, which puts me off mentally; it just feels illogical intrinsically, if that makes sense.

I suspect I understand the rationale, but I'm not sure it's ever been explained ITT.

[hector62]

Nadal beats Silva     6 - 2    6 - 1     6 - 0

[tikay]

Nadal beats Silva     6 - 2    6 - 1     6 - 0

Coasting along nicely, thanks hector.

Did you see the Ppost by Kinboshi, asking about Wigan v Hull this evening, if so, any pertinent views?

[BigAdz]

Tal's Ice Cream Question of the Day

Bobby1 recommends backing Brees each way at a quarter at 3/1. This means, if he finishes second, say, we get 3/4. But this means we lose money on the bet, because of our lost win bet.

I've seen this a few times in Fred, particularly with horse tips, where a place loses money overall.

Can't we just back place only?

If I can attempt to answer my own question, I take it we are treating the win and the place as separate bets, where each is a value price. By this reasoning, the bet on the win is of itself a value bet, so not doing it is missing out on EV return. I appreciate some bookies might not offer place only, too.

As a punter, I want to be happy when I win a bet, else I'll just spend the money on shoes. Here, I might win but be worse off, which puts me off mentally; it just feels illogical intrinsically, if that makes sense.

I suspect I understand the rationale, but I'm not sure it's ever been explained ITT.

Just LOL

"else I'll just spend the money on shoes"......now I see why you don't understand betting......you're a girl........hahaha

[hector62]

A minute before reading his post I saw the team news for Wigan and thought we could beat the bookies by backing Hull. I then saw their team news and they are also missing key players. In short I have no idea what will happen, I can't even decide if unders or overs is best. As I have said before, he knows the Wigan team far better than me, and he is quite capable of assessing their chances correctly.

[doubleup]

Loves the weeks when Tiger has  "an injury".
Suddenly all those outsiders you love to stick a cheeky fiver or tenner on at outrageous odds look much better at 650-1!
Waiting for tiger to hit that slightly off centre shot out of the rough and the follow through turns into a twirling end to the swing above the head and the ritual club drop(harder too do if you actually have injured yourself)just makes me laugh because you know it's coming, quickly followed by some expletive and a hobble.
Then remarkably the same shot will be played a few holes later, and it comes off the middle of the club, goes close, no pain, no dramatics, and the commentators all fawn over how brave and strong he is.
Tiger "injury" weeks.....love em.

GL with Scott

yeah he never had a broken leg when he won the us open - he even took months off aftewards to make his feigning injury look more believable