Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

The "Most Passing Yards" suggestions by Bobby1.

Love this, almost made for Fred, should give us tons of fun through the NFL Season, & dovetails nicely with our existing NFL portfolio.

We should have an interest in most Divisions & Conferences (?) now.

All three suggestions are on, exactly as specified. Will make a ton of work for Tighty to report on, but I fancy he'll rather enjoy it.

So, these are the three bets.

They are all "Most Passing Yards".

Matthew Stafford, £50 EW @ 6/1, Ladbrokes, qtr 1,2,3,4.

Drew Brees, £80 EW @ 3/1, Ladbrokes, qtr 1,2,3,4

Matt Ryan, £33 EW @ 10/1, Wm Hill, qtr 1,2,3,4.

ON



30/08/2013 0000407 Single (each-way) 2 £100.00  Most Regular Season Passing Yards Most Regular Season Passing Yds
(each-way 1/4 1,2,3,4)  Matthew Stafford  6/1   

0000406 Single (each-way) 2 £160.00  Most Regular Season Passing Yards Most Regular Season Passing Yds
(each-way 1/4 1,2,3,4)  Drew Brees  3/1   

____

30 Aug 13 / 06:28

Single (EW)

Most Regular Season Passing Yards  –  Most Passing Yards

 Matt Ryan @ 10/1

–

£66.00

O/0457483/0000569/F

[Tal]

Tal's Ice Cream Question of the Day

Bobby1 recommends backing Brees each way at a quarter at 3/1. This means, if he finishes second, say, we get 3/4. But this means we lose money on the bet, because of our lost win bet.

I've seen this a few times in Fred, particularly with horse tips, where a place loses money overall.

Can't we just back place only?

If I can attempt to answer my own question, I take it we are treating the win and the place as separate bets, where each is a value price. By this reasoning, the bet on the win is of itself a value bet, so not doing it is missing out on EV return. I appreciate some bookies might not offer place only, too.

As a punter, I want to be happy when I win a bet, else I'll just spend the money on shoes. Here, I might win but be worse off, which puts me off mentally; it just feels illogical intrinsically, if that makes sense.

I suspect I understand the rationale, but I'm not sure it's ever been explained ITT.

Just LOL

"else I'll just spend the money on shoes"......now I see why you don't understand betting......you're a girl........hahaha

I have to put these things in to keep you honest, Adz.

Also, I do like shoes.

[Doobs]

I have done a trawl on the Deutsche Bank Championship golf, and though I managed to find 6 golfers worth a bet, the prices had all gone by the time I went to the bookies sites.  I am guessing this is because they are all easy arbs, and the Bookies are picking up on them quicker than I can.  You have a Betfair place market that is 5 places, so it is easier to see if quarter the odds first 5 is bigger than Betfair.

Not to be put off, I think we should still try and get a sweat going.  I think we have a couple of £25 free bets with Hills. They offfer Adam Scott at 11/1 vs 12/1 on Betfair, so the price isn't far off.  He is having an exceptional year with a couple of wins (The Masters and last week's Barclays).  He also has a couple of 3rds, including the Open, and was 5th in the PGA.  He has been very consistent, so hopefully we'll at least get a sweat going in to the last round.

FWIW You could arb a Tiger Woods in in a few places when I looked, with the 7/1 on offer at the bookies beating Betfair.  I haven't backed him, but thought it worth a mention.

I have backed Scott EW at 12/1 and think he is a really good bet.  Tiger is carrying an injury and Scott is playing incredibly well this year.  I thought he should be close to favourite albeit that Tiger should probably be bigger too.  I don't think it is a huge bet but I don't really see any way it isn't small value.

He is now 12/1 on Betfair.  Think we should go for it.  You can get 12/1 e/w with 5 places on Boyles and PP.  PP are also doing money back if he gets 6th to 10th.  If we can get on with either suggest £25 e/w at 12/1 to go with the free bet.  Go PP first as you get the added value.

Thanks Doobs.

My only problem with that (not a real prob) is that I don't find him much fun to watch, or even interesting in any way. But if he can deliver us a nice win, I'd be able to cope, I'm sure.

Complications. Always complications. Retired early, last night, fatigued, so missed this, & now PP only go 11/1 (but with the "Money Back" concession), whereas Boylesports still go 12/1. I fired up my algorithm, did some complex algebraic equations, & checked the price of eggs, & deduced that...... there is not much in it, & so I took the 11/1. That was a good decision, yeah? Right? Yeah, thought so.

We have £25 EW @ 11/1, (qtr, 1,2,3,4,5) Paddy Power, Adam Scott to win the Deutsche Bank thing.


ON
Deutsche Bank Championship Deutsche Bank Championship Outright Betting
30-08-2013 12:40
Outright Betting
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3,4,5
Scott, Adam @ 11/1


When placing an E/W bet, your total stake will be double the amount you enter in the stake box.
Single: Scott, Adam @ 11/1
2 lines at £25.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
 Potential returns: £393.75
No: O/23146337/0000348
 

You can't have missed that PP price by much, as I got it just before my post.

 I wouldn't worry about which was best, the concession is probably about the same as an extra place, so there can't be much in it.  I should probably have put the max on this morning.  

[BigAdz]

Loves the weeks when Tiger has  "an injury".
Suddenly all those outsiders you love to stick a cheeky fiver or tenner on at outrageous odds look much better at 650-1!
Waiting for tiger to hit that slightly off centre shot out of the rough and the follow through turns into a twirling end to the swing above the head and the ritual club drop(harder too do if you actually have injured yourself)just makes me laugh because you know it's coming, quickly followed by some expletive and a hobble.
Then remarkably the same shot will be played a few holes later, and it comes off the middle of the club, goes close, no pain, no dramatics, and the commentators all fawn over how brave and strong he is.
Tiger "injury" weeks.....love em.

GL with Scott

yeah he never had a broken leg when he won the us open - he even took months off aftewards to make his feigning injury look more believable 

He has these injuries every season double, one of them had to be real........up to him how he behaves, I'm just saying everyone is better value.....

[tikay]

I have done a trawl on the Deutsche Bank Championship golf, and though I managed to find 6 golfers worth a bet, the prices had all gone by the time I went to the bookies sites.  I am guessing this is because they are all easy arbs, and the Bookies are picking up on them quicker than I can.  You have a Betfair place market that is 5 places, so it is easier to see if quarter the odds first 5 is bigger than Betfair.

Not to be put off, I think we should still try and get a sweat going.  I think we have a couple of £25 free bets with Hills. They offfer Adam Scott at 11/1 vs 12/1 on Betfair, so the price isn't far off.  He is having an exceptional year with a couple of wins (The Masters and last week's Barclays).  He also has a couple of 3rds, including the Open, and was 5th in the PGA.  He has been very consistent, so hopefully we'll at least get a sweat going in to the last round.

FWIW You could arb a Tiger Woods in in a few places when I looked, with the 7/1 on offer at the bookies beating Betfair.  I haven't backed him, but thought it worth a mention.

I went with PP, as per your later "PP or Boylesports" suggestion, so I assume we leave the Wm Hill Free Bet option now?

Incidentally, my records suggest we only have ONE Free Bet with Wm Hill. Tighty now lists the outstanding Free Bets at the foot of the Current Month, that suggests just the one, too. 

[BigAdz]

Tal's Ice Cream Question of the Day

Bobby1 recommends backing Brees each way at a quarter at 3/1. This means, if he finishes second, say, we get 3/4. But this means we lose money on the bet, because of our lost win bet.

I've seen this a few times in Fred, particularly with horse tips, where a place loses money overall.

Can't we just back place only?

If I can attempt to answer my own question, I take it we are treating the win and the place as separate bets, where each is a value price. By this reasoning, the bet on the win is of itself a value bet, so not doing it is missing out on EV return. I appreciate some bookies might not offer place only, too.

As a punter, I want to be happy when I win a bet, else I'll just spend the money on shoes. Here, I might win but be worse off, which puts me off mentally; it just feels illogical intrinsically, if that makes sense.

I suspect I understand the rationale, but I'm not sure it's ever been explained ITT.

Just LOL

"else I'll just spend the money on shoes"......now I see why you don't understand betting......you're a girl........hahaha

I have to put these things in to keep you honest, Adz.

Also, I do like shoes.

N1 Tal, always taken in the spirit it was meant.

I shall leave the Maths explanation to Team Maths, but even Team Punter bets ew on stuff that may not return the stake if it only places.

[tikay]

I have done a trawl on the Deutsche Bank Championship golf, and though I managed to find 6 golfers worth a bet, the prices had all gone by the time I went to the bookies sites.  I am guessing this is because they are all easy arbs, and the Bookies are picking up on them quicker than I can.  You have a Betfair place market that is 5 places, so it is easier to see if quarter the odds first 5 is bigger than Betfair.

Not to be put off, I think we should still try and get a sweat going.  I think we have a couple of £25 free bets with Hills. They offfer Adam Scott at 11/1 vs 12/1 on Betfair, so the price isn't far off.  He is having an exceptional year with a couple of wins (The Masters and last week's Barclays).  He also has a couple of 3rds, including the Open, and was 5th in the PGA.  He has been very consistent, so hopefully we'll at least get a sweat going in to the last round.

FWIW You could arb a Tiger Woods in in a few places when I looked, with the 7/1 on offer at the bookies beating Betfair.  I haven't backed him, but thought it worth a mention.

I have backed Scott EW at 12/1 and think he is a really good bet.  Tiger is carrying an injury and Scott is playing incredibly well this year.  I thought he should be close to favourite albeit that Tiger should probably be bigger too.  I don't think it is a huge bet but I don't really see any way it isn't small value.

He is now 12/1 on Betfair.  Think we should go for it.  You can get 12/1 e/w with 5 places on Boyles and PP.  PP are also doing money back if he gets 6th to 10th.  If we can get on with either suggest £25 e/w at 12/1 to go with the free bet.  Go PP first as you get the added value.

Thanks Doobs.

My only problem with that (not a real prob) is that I don't find him much fun to watch, or even interesting in any way. But if he can deliver us a nice win, I'd be able to cope, I'm sure.

Complications. Always complications. Retired early, last night, fatigued, so missed this, & now PP only go 11/1 (but with the "Money Back" concession), whereas Boylesports still go 12/1. I fired up my algorithm, did some complex algebraic equations, & checked the price of eggs, & deduced that...... there is not much in it, & so I took the 11/1. That was a good decision, yeah? Right? Yeah, thought so.

We have £25 EW @ 11/1, (qtr, 1,2,3,4,5) Paddy Power, Adam Scott to win the Deutsche Bank thing.


ON
Deutsche Bank Championship Deutsche Bank Championship Outright Betting
30-08-2013 12:40
Outright Betting
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3,4,5
Scott, Adam @ 11/1


When placing an E/W bet, your total stake will be double the amount you enter in the stake box.
Single: Scott, Adam @ 11/1
2 lines at £25.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
 Potential returns: £393.75
No: O/23146337/0000348
 

You can't have missed that PP price by much, as I got it just before my post.

 I wouldn't worry about which was best, the concession is probably about the same as an extra place, so there can't be much in it.  I should probably have put the max on this morning.  

So it was you that moved the price.....!

Agree, there cannot be much between the two prices. Shame I missed the 12/1 with PP, but I just died with exhaustion last night, & took to my bed early. Even missed my Ovaltine.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £824.17

Outstanding Bets £2727.39

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=28

A profit of £71 yesterday

The day began well with Canterbury beating Waikato 47-10 to smash the supremacy spread highlighted by Mr Channing for a £50 profit

There was a soggy middle as we went 1 for 4 on Horses, with the only winner at 4/11, for a loss of £66 with a free bet to come

The early evening saw a cricket double as Total boundaries came in before the end of the fitrst innings and England in their chase hit five sixes for a combined profit of £34. The Aaron Finch innings was cricket stat heaven. 25 boundaries including 14 sixes, 156 runs off 63 balls and one ball off the fastest T20 hundred ever

To round things off Mr Defoe was FGS for Tottenham e/w at 4/1 for a £53 profit. Defoe has now netted 17 goals in 28 European appearances for Tottenham

Elsewhere...

Nadal won comfortably as Hector has told us, and Dan Evans beat Tomic to reach the third round too

Samuel Eto'o signed for Chelsea. A journalist friend of mine once had to interview him for a football magazine, when he was at his peak. At the end of the interview during which they had discussed his life, career and all things Eto'o the friend switched off the dictation machine and Eto'o said to him

"Go to Cameroon, Englishman, the women have fantastic breasts"

and walked out of the hotel room

I digress.

In Country Circket Northants are well placed against Glamorgan. They need to be as Lancashire and Essex look like winning at the top of LVCC2 as well

In LVCC1 Middlesex are doing the most thorough choke in the second half of the season. About to be thrashed by Somerset. Rogers batted twice yesterday. He scored 8. Then he scored 2. Great.

In baseball the Rays lost but the Red Sox lost too as the Orioles avoided being swept on the East Coast

In the central the Royals refuse to let me put a Loss in the spreadsheet as they won their fifth game in a row to remain on the coat tails of the wild card race

Napoli received a reasonably difficult CL draw, but not a forlorn hope of getting through ahead of Arsenal

Of the six Welsh Open golfers selected, Jacquelin is the highest at -1 six off the lead, so not the greatest start there

[TightEnd]

On he goes...

Click to see full-size image.

The picture says it all

Click to see full-size image.

Goalazzo

Click to see full-size image.

Canterbury storm past Waikato



Eto'o at the Bridge

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

Just done a quick bit of mental arithmetic, as on the phone.

I think we should put £10 e/w Zach Johnson 40/1, Lee Westwood 40/1 and Keegan Bradley 35/1 all at PP.

I am sure these are fine, and maybe Furyk and a few others, but can't do anything properly so will leave them.

Cheers.

[tikay]

Just done a quick bit of mental arithmetic, as on the phone.

I think we should put £10 e/w Zach Johnson 40/1, Lee Westwood 40/1 and Keegan Bradley 35/1 all at PP.

I am sure these are fine, and maybe Furyk and a few others, but can't do anything properly so will leave them.

Cheers.

We got Restricted (obv), but we got pretty near the suggested amounts, so not too bad.

These are ALL....

Paddy Power

Qtr odds, 1,2,3,4,5

MONEY BACK (PLACE MONEY) IF WE FINISH TOP 10 BUT NOT TOP 5. (Exactly as per the Adam Scott bet).

Zach Johnson, £8.12 EW @ 40/1

Lee Westwood, £8.12 EW @ 40/1

Keegan Bradley, £9.09 EW @ 35/1


ON
 



When placing an E/W bet, your total stake will be double the amount you enter in the stake box.
Single: Bradley, Keegan @ 35/1
2 lines at £9.09 per line
Total stake for this bet: £18.18
 Potential returns: £415.87
No: O/23146337/0000349
 



When placing an E/W bet, your total stake will be double the amount you enter in the stake box.
Single: Westwood, Lee @ 40/1
2 lines at £8.12 per line
Total stake for this bet: £16.24
 Potential returns: £422.24
No: O/23146337/0000350
 



When placing an E/W bet, your total stake will be double the amount you enter in the stake box.
Single: Johnson, Zach @ 40/1
2 lines at £8.12 per line
Total stake for this bet: £16.24
 Potential returns: £422.24
No: O/23146337/0000351
 

Total stake: £50.66
 Free bets voucher: £0.00
 Total Cost: £50.66

[tikay]

Tighty's Daily Report gets better & better.

"Go to Cameroon, Englishman, the women have fantastic breasts"


The Middlesex choke is astonishing, even Reliable Rogers failed yesterday. I was counting the Middlesex winnings 4 or 5 weeks ago.

[Tal]

Interestingly, the Middlesex Choke was a dance in the early forties. Never caught on like the Harlem Shuffle, the Lambeth Walk or the Charleston...Charleston.

[tikay]

Interestingly, the Middlesex Choke was a dance in the early forties. Never caught on like the Harlem Shuffle, the Lambeth Walk or the Charleston...Charleston.

There is a website called "Middlesex till we die", on which it was said (5 years ago!)....


More choke than KP's car

[tikay]

NFL & NCAA

Quick Reference Guide to our NFL & NCAA book. We seem to have around £700 invested, but it is nicely balanced.  


 
Heisman Trophy Winner – Marcus Mariotta, £20 @ 25/1

AFC East Winner, Miami Dolphine, £40 @ 9/2

AFC Championship Winner, Cincinnati Bengals, £50 @ 16/1

AFC North Winner, Cincinnati Bengals, £100 @ 23/10

AFC West Winner, Kansas City Chiefs, £25 @ 7/1

Tennessee Titans Season Points, OVER 354, £75 @ 17/10

Most Regular Season Passing Yards, Matthew Stafford, £50 EW @ 6/1

Most Regular Season Passing Yards, Drew Brees, £80 EW @ 3/1

Most Regular Season Passing Yards, Matt Ryan, £33 @ 10/1

Texas A & M - <9.5 wins, £22 @ 10/11

Texas A & M <9.5 wins, £50 @ 21/20