Tips for Tikay

[Omm]

Any love for Ramsey to be first scorer

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/west-brom-v-arsenal/first-goalscorer

14-1 with 888 or 5-1 for anytime.

7 goals in all comps so far this season, read somewhere that was from 8 shots on target. Not a massive market but betfair are 9.2.

If elders agree I recommend £10 first and £20 anytime.

Almost no chance that he plays any part let alone starts imo.

That would make the bet void wouldn't it?

[redarmi]

There is a line in the NFL next week which just seems wrong to me based on what we have seen so far this year and I think it is because the form is "hidden" somewhat.  Buffalo play host to the Baltimore Ravens.  Buffalo are in the AFC East which this year looks like it might be a decent division and, based on what we saw yesterday they are probably the worst team in the division but there is probably no shame in that.  So far when AFC East teams have played outside their division this year these are the results:

Miami beat Colts 24-20 in Indy
Miami beat Atlanta 24-20
Miami beat Browns 23-10 in Cleveland
NY Jets beat Tampa 18-17
New England beat Tampa 23-3
Most importantly....Buffalo beat Carolina (who have beaten NYG 38-0 and division faves Cincy) 24-23

Buffalo have lost a couple of close decisions against New England and the Jets but have shown a real ability to move the ball and have put up 20+ points in all games and their rookie QB is definitely showing some skills.  A lot of punters will only see the fact that they are 1-2 but they are not that far off being a decent team imo although their defense definitely needs some work.

Onto Baltimore.  The Superbowl champions are 2-1 and they seemingly put up a decent offensive performance to beat Houston yesterday 30-9.  Only they didn't, for sure they won 30-9 but it wasn't a decent offensive performance.  Joe Flacco threw for just 171 yards and no TD's and backup RB Pierce (I would say their star RB Ray Rice is 50/50 for this week) ran for 65 yards and 1 TD.  Special teams and the Defense were responsible for the rest of the scoring and indeed they only had 16 first downs to Houstons 18.  The week before this they scored a paltry 14 points against the Browns who, after this game accepted they were so bad they might as well give the season up and traded their best RB away and effectively offered up other stars.  In week one they did put up a semi respectable 27 points in going down to a 49-27 loss to Denver but then Denver gave up 23 points against a Giants offense that Carolina shut out yesterday....

So onto the line.....the books have opened up the Ravens as a 3.5 point favourite.  This just seems wrong to me.  I understand why it opened at that.  We have a team that won the Superbowl last year against a team that finished 6-10.  This year they are 2-1 and 1-2 but everything we are seeing below the surface suggests Buffalo are on the upgrade and Baltimore are on the downgrade.  I really like Buffalo as a 3.5 point dog.  You might have to take 5/6 but I just don't see how this line can be right.

[Karabiner]

Any love for Ramsey to be first scorer

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/west-brom-v-arsenal/first-goalscorer

14-1 with 888 or 5-1 for anytime.

7 goals in all comps so far this season, read somewhere that was from 8 shots on target. Not a massive market but betfair are 9.2.

If elders agree I recommend £10 first and £20 anytime.

Almost no chance that he plays any part let alone starts imo.

That would make the bet void wouldn't it?

If he plays no part yes.

Here's what I think will be Arsenal's team for Wednesday:

Viviano, Jenkinson, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Monreal; Arteta, Frimpong, Gnabry, Ryo, TGSTEL, AN Other.

[Tal]

Out of interest, has Aaron Ramsey stopped killing celebrities with his goals?

I find myself bewhoooshed which is not that uncommon an occurrence.

http://www.givemesport.com/345550-could-aaron-ramseys-celebrity-goal-curse-strike-again

[Karabiner]

Out of interest, has Aaron Ramsey stopped killing celebrities with his goals?

I find myself bewhoooshed which is not that uncommon an occurrence.

http://www.givemesport.com/345550-could-aaron-ramseys-celebrity-goal-curse-strike-again

Ha cryogenic clinics or whatever they're called must be overloaded with subscriptions this season.

[tikay]

There is a line in the NFL next week which just seems wrong to me based on what we have seen so far this year and I think it is because the form is "hidden" somewhat.  Buffalo play host to the Baltimore Ravens.  Buffalo are in the AFC East which this year looks like it might be a decent division and, based on what we saw yesterday they are probably the worst team in the division but there is probably no shame in that.  So far when AFC East teams have played outside their division this year these are the results:

Miami beat Colts 24-20 in Indy
Miami beat Atlanta 24-20
Miami beat Browns 23-10 in Cleveland
NY Jets beat Tampa 18-17
New England beat Tampa 23-3
Most importantly....Buffalo beat Carolina (who have beaten NYG 38-0 and division faves Cincy) 24-23

Buffalo have lost a couple of close decisions against New England and the Jets but have shown a real ability to move the ball and have put up 20+ points in all games and their rookie QB is definitely showing some skills.  A lot of punters will only see the fact that they are 1-2 but they are not that far off being a decent team imo although their defense definitely needs some work.

Onto Baltimore.  The Superbowl champions are 2-1 and they seemingly put up a decent offensive performance to beat Houston yesterday 30-9.  Only they didn't, for sure they won 30-9 but it wasn't a decent offensive performance.  Joe Flacco threw for just 171 yards and no TD's and backup RB Pierce (I would say their star RB Ray Rice is 50/50 for this week) ran for 65 yards and 1 TD.  Special teams and the Defense were responsible for the rest of the scoring and indeed they only had 16 first downs to Houstons 18.  The week before this they scored a paltry 14 points against the Browns who, after this game accepted they were so bad they might as well give the season up and traded their best RB away and effectively offered up other stars.  In week one they did put up a semi respectable 27 points in going down to a 49-27 loss to Denver but then Denver gave up 23 points against a Giants offense that Carolina shut out yesterday....

So onto the line.....the books have opened up the Ravens as a 3.5 point favourite.  This just seems wrong to me.  I understand why it opened at that.  We have a team that won the Superbowl last year against a team that finished 6-10.  This year they are 2-1 and 1-2 but everything we are seeing below the surface suggests Buffalo are on the upgrade and Baltimore are on the downgrade.  I really like Buffalo as a 3.5 point dog.  You might have to take 5/6 but I just don't see how this line can be right.

TYVM Stu. Incisive stuff.

How much would you suggest?

I was able to get 10/11 with Sporting Bet, so I took £55, but we can bet again if need be.

For now....

£55 @ 10/11, Sporting Bet, Buffalo (+3.5) over Baltimore.

ON

 Bet Type: Single
Baltimore @ Buffalo Point Spread - HandicapBuffalo Bills(+3.5)100/110

 

Possible Payout 105.00 GBP

1 bet @
55.00 GBP


Total Cost: 55.00 GBP
Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 105.00 GBP

[redarmi]

I think £55 is fine.

[TightEnd]

"You've only got 12 men, You've only got 12 men"

A cry beloved of fans the world over, at some perceived injustice at the hands of officials

I think I have come up with a great angle for the NFL

Meet Carl Cheffers



In his last 36 NFL games, the home team has won 31 times

How did I come across him? Well he refereed the Dallas match last night that I watched several times. I could not believe a few of the calls. Two blatant pass interferences were not called, one hands to the face on the St Louis QB, a couple of holding calls all not called on Dallas

I went and researched the referee and found the 31 of 36 stat

This page has everything we need to know

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/ChefCa0r.htm

In 2010 66% of the games he refereed -15 in total- were home wins

In 2011 87.5% of the games he refereed -16 in total- were home wins

In 2012 75% of the games he refereed -12 in total- were home wins

Season to date. 3 home wins from three Cheffers refereed games

In the NFL over the last 14 seasons home teams win 57% of the time

Is this a coincidence? Is 36 games or looking at the data a six year refereeing career statistically significant? I suspect it might be, though the treands are really pronounced in the last three years and three games

The penalties given in the game by his crew are skewed towards away teams. Season to date penalties awarded against home teams in his games are 38% of the total

In a tight league, with spreads often 3 points or less, the loss of yards associated with a higher percentage of penalties awarded against away teams can make an enormous difference

I went onto google and saw you tube pages lampooning his biased calls, and questioning his competence

So we have a hypothesis. If this referee is appointed, ceteris paribus, it can skew a game result towards the home team and create inefficiencies in spread prices

Week 4 referee appointments will come out during the week, can be monitored on http://www.football-refs.com/2013-crews/week-4/

If he is appointed to a game with a less than one score points spread (ie a close enough game that ability can be skewed by penalty awards), I suggest we back the home team, for small money, and test the theory over a few weeks

[tikay]

"You've only got 12 men, You've only got 12 men"

A cry beloved of fans the world over, at some perceived injustice at the hands of officials

I think I have come up with a great angle for the NFL

Meet Carl Cheffers



In his last 36 NFL games, the home team has won 31 times

How did I come across him? Well he refereed the Dallas match last night that I watched several times. I could not believe a few of the calls. Two blatant pass interferences were not called, one hands to the face on the St Louis QB, a couple of holding calls all not called on Dallas

I went and researched the referee and found the 31 of 36 stat

This page has everything we need to know

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/ChefCa0r.htm

In 2010 66% of the games he refereed -15 in total- were home wins

In 2011 87.5% of the games he refereed -16 in total- were home wins

In 2012 75% of the games he refereed -12 in total- were home wins

Season to date. 3 home wins from three Cheffers refereed games

In the NFL over the last 14 seasons home teams win 57% of the time

Is this a coincidence? Is 36 games or looking at the data a six year refereeing career statistically significant? I suspect it might be, though the treands are really pronoucned in the last three years  and three games

The penalties given in the game by his crew are skewed towards away teams. Season to date penalties awared against home teams in his games are 38% of the total

In a tight league, with spreads often 3 points or less, the loss of yards asociated with a higher percentage of penalties awarded against away teams can make an enormous difference

I went onto google and saw you tube pages lampooning his biased calls, and questioning his competence

So we have a hypothesis. If this referee is appointed, ceteris paribus, it can skew a game result towards the home team and create inefficiencies in spread prices

Week 4 referee appointments will come out during the week, can be monitored on http://www.football-refs.com/2013-crews/week-4/

If he is appointed to a game with a less than one score points spread (ie a clopse enough game that ability can be skewed by penalty awards), I suggest we back the home team, for small money, and test the theory over a few weeks

 

[BigAdz]

LOL. Dedication beyond the pale.

I watched the game several times!

Fair do!

[Tal]

The referee's a banker

Fab researchism, Mr Tighty. Again.

[Tal]

Must dash - Pembroke on University Challenge - but does it really matter which teams are playing? Don't the stats mean the line will be challengeable anyway, wherever it is? Just back the home team in the spread, no?

[Tal]

I didn't get a mention on the alumni.

Disgracefully overlooked.

[TightEnd]

Must dash - Pembroke on University Challenge - but does it really matter which teams are playing? Don't the stats mean the line will be challengeable anyway, wherever it is? Just back the home team in the spread, no?

Possibly

Will be monitoring outright win and results ATS

If this is a real trend, backing outrights will lead to higher returns with my filter of one score games

Of course, it could all be bollocks. The stats were striking though.

[TheDazzler]

Must dash - Pembroke on University Challenge - but does it really matter which teams are playing? Don't the stats mean the line will be challengeable anyway, wherever it is? Just back the home team in the spread, no?

Possibly

Will be monitoring outright win and results ATS

If this is a real trend, backing outrights will lead to higher returns with my filter of one score games

Of course, it could all be bollocks. The stats were striking though.

The stats are amazing!
Can you find out what the historical handicap lines at KO were? And then compare the actual score to those lines to find out how many points he's worth to 'homers'?