Tips for Tikay

[T_Mar]

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Never in doubt was it ...WP

[tikay]

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Ooh!

At last, a winner!

Well done hector, proper good stuff. Think we are 1 for 1 in Kuala Lumpur Tennis bets now. Next up, Rugby in Papau New Guinea.   

[TightEnd]

QIPCO Champion Stakes

This is paraphrasing from a couple of previews etc


Frankel won this last year at 2/11

In the previous ten years no horse under 7/2 has won, average winning price is 19/2 (last 3 years Ascot, before that at Newmarket)

Why? The theory goes that a lot of the horses who run in it  have had long seasons, and by the time the major back end races come around do not run to form. Unexposed or fresh horses improve and beat them

In the market this year you have 3+ horses at the top of the heap that may not run in this. Other targets, including the Arc

These would include the Fugue, Intello and Al Kazeem

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/champion-stakes/winner


So the race may cut up, and we want a fresh horse at a price that we know will run

Mukhadram

- Just failed to beat Al Kazeem at Royal Ascot. We know therefore it has Ascot form. Could use identical tactics in this - front running

- Was cut up in the Eclipse in finishing 3rd, 3 lengths back

- Won at York as expected at odds on


then Haggas put the horse away, with an intention stated in interviews at the time "to come back fresh for the Champion"

Last run was 29th July

It is a certain runner, barring injury.

At 12-1 it is the belief from these previews that as the race cuts up it could start at 5 or 6-1

Timeform has it 6 points below the favourites in rating, but as I have said

- We know it runs
- We don't know how many of the others above it run
- Its fresh, and the higher rated horses less so


I don't get a lot of time to look at racing, but I've spent an hour on this and I think the horse fits the profile of the type of horse we go for ante-post perfectly

Of course, I will bow to the opinions of more experienced judges than I

I recommend £20 e/w Mukhadram at 12-1 (Boylesports probably, though Stan James have e/w paying first 4)

[aaron1867]

I will put a recc up for thread for the Carling Cup (but it's tomorrow)....

Birmingham at home to Swansea tomorrow are 4/1 best priced with only Bet365, not amazing value as all the other firms are not that far behind, but don't think is a 4/1 price.

Birmingham at home after a decent result at the weekend (FML) and at home to a team who really does need to start using their squad as they are playing a game every other day. I would be very surprised to see any sort of  decent team out for Swansea and expect a full one out for Birmingham.

Recc £15 @ 4-1 with 365.

I agree with the rationale for this, as I assume Swansea will focus on their Europa adventure this season.  However, I'd want Lingaard to be playing as otherwise just don't just them to score.  Are Man Utd allowing it?

Did we get anywhere with this or have have I scrolled past relevant comments?

It looks as if Lingard is playing as he is priced up with all bookies. However we have lost a little bit of the price as it is now 15/4, but only in one place and I still think it is backable.

Weird scoring market also, Lingard is 8/1 first goalscorer in a few place and then 3/1 is some other!

[Rubbish2407]

On the matter of League Cup games, Man U are out to 13/10 at home to beat Liverpool tonight.

I've had a bit myself, because I think there HAS to be a backlash after Sunday, but Fred is not on.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/man-utd-v-liverpool/winner

Are you talking about the backlash of Man Utd losing to Man City or Liverpool losing to Southampton? Personally, I would be on the draw/Liverpool tonight.

[aaron1867]

On the matter of League Cup games, Man U are out to 13/10 at home to beat Liverpool tonight.

I've had a bit myself, because I think there HAS to be a backlash after Sunday, but Fred is not on.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/man-utd-v-liverpool/winner

Are you talking about the backlash of Man Utd losing to Man City or Liverpool losing to Southampton? Personally, I would be on the draw/Liverpool tonight.

I wouldn't be on either of the bets, for numerous reasons.

But Hills are doing some sort of special regarding the game, which looks more appealing to me.

Man Utd & both teams to score - 3/1

Liverpool and both teams to score - 5/1

I'd be pretty confident there is going to be a few goals in this!

[redarmi]

I will put a recc up for thread for the Carling Cup (but it's tomorrow)....

Birmingham at home to Swansea tomorrow are 4/1 best priced with only Bet365, not amazing value as all the other firms are not that far behind, but don't think is a 4/1 price.

Birmingham at home after a decent result at the weekend (FML) and at home to a team who really does need to start using their squad as they are playing a game every other day. I would be very surprised to see any sort of  decent team out for Swansea and expect a full one out for Birmingham.

Recc £15 @ 4-1 with 365.

99% certain Lingard not playing.


I agree with the rationale for this, as I assume Swansea will focus on their Europa adventure this season.  However, I'd want Lingaard to be playing as otherwise just don't just them to score.  Are Man Utd allowing it?

Did we get anywhere with this or have have I scrolled past relevant comments?

It looks as if Lingard is playing as he is priced up with all bookies. However we have lost a little bit of the price as it is now 15/4, but only in one place and I still think it is backable.

Weird scoring market also, Lingard is 8/1 first goalscorer in a few place and then 3/1 is some other!

[tikay]

I will put a recc up for thread for the Carling Cup (but it's tomorrow)....

Birmingham at home to Swansea tomorrow are 4/1 best priced with only Bet365, not amazing value as all the other firms are not that far behind, but don't think is a 4/1 price.

Birmingham at home after a decent result at the weekend (FML) and at home to a team who really does need to start using their squad as they are playing a game every other day. I would be very surprised to see any sort of  decent team out for Swansea and expect a full one out for Birmingham.

Recc £15 @ 4-1 with 365.

99% certain Lingard not playing.


I agree with the rationale for this, as I assume Swansea will focus on their Europa adventure this season.  However, I'd want Lingaard to be playing as otherwise just don't just them to score.  Are Man Utd allowing it?

Did we get anywhere with this or have have I scrolled past relevant comments?

It looks as if Lingard is playing as he is priced up with all bookies. However we have lost a little bit of the price as it is now 15/4, but only in one place and I still think it is backable.

Weird scoring market also, Lingard is 8/1 first goalscorer in a few place and then 3/1 is some other!

According to the BBC, NO, he is NOT playing.

Where does that leave us with this proposed bet?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24140580



Birmingham will be without loan signings Jesse Lingard and Kyle Bartley due to the conditions agreed with their parent clubs.

[aaron1867]

I will put a recc up for thread for the Carling Cup (but it's tomorrow)....

Birmingham at home to Swansea tomorrow are 4/1 best priced with only Bet365, not amazing value as all the other firms are not that far behind, but don't think is a 4/1 price.

Birmingham at home after a decent result at the weekend (FML) and at home to a team who really does need to start using their squad as they are playing a game every other day. I would be very surprised to see any sort of  decent team out for Swansea and expect a full one out for Birmingham.

Recc £15 @ 4-1 with 365.

99% certain Lingard not playing.


I agree with the rationale for this, as I assume Swansea will focus on their Europa adventure this season.  However, I'd want Lingaard to be playing as otherwise just don't just them to score.  Are Man Utd allowing it?

Did we get anywhere with this or have have I scrolled past relevant comments?

It looks as if Lingard is playing as he is priced up with all bookies. However we have lost a little bit of the price as it is now 15/4, but only in one place and I still think it is backable.

Weird scoring market also, Lingard is 8/1 first goalscorer in a few place and then 3/1 is some other!

According to the BBC, NO, he is NOT playing.

Where does that leave us with this proposed bet?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24140580



Birmingham will be without loan signings Jesse Lingard and Kyle Bartley due to the conditions agreed with their parent clubs.

Ha, I do not use the BBC....

I think we give the bet a miss, I am pretty sure Birmingham was struggling for goals before he arrived.

[Chompy]

QIPCO Champion Stakes

This is paraphrasing from a couple of previews etc


Frankel won this last year at 2/11

In the previous ten years no horse under 7/2 has won, average winning price is 19/2 (last 3 years Ascot, before that at Newmarket)

Why? The theory goes that a lot of the horses who run in it  have had long seasons, and by the time the major back end races come around do not run to form. Unexposed or fresh horses improve and beat them

In the market this year you have 3+ horses at the top of the heap that may not run in this. Other targets, including the Arc

These would include the Fugue, Intello and Al Kazeem

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/champion-stakes/winner


So the race may cut up, and we want a fresh horse at a price that we know will run

Mukhadram

- Just failed to beat Al Kazeem at Royal Ascot. We know therefore it has Ascot form. Could use identical tactics in this - front running

- Was cut up in the Eclipse in finishing 3rd, 3 lengths back

- Won at York as expected at odds on


then Haggas put the horse away, with an intention stated in interviews at the time "to come back fresh for the Champion"

Last run was 29th July

It is a certain runner, barring injury.

At 12-1 it is the belief from these previews that as the race cuts up it could start at 5 or 6-1

Timeform has it 6 points below the favourites in rating, but as I have said

- We know it runs
- We don't know how many of the others above it run
- Its fresh, and the higher rated horses less so


I don't get a lot of time to look at racing, but I've spent an hour on this and I think the horse fits the profile of the type of horse we go for ante-post perfectly

Of course, I will bow to the opinions of more experienced judges than I

I recommend £20 e/w Mukhadram at 12-1 (Boylesports probably, though Stan James have e/w paying first 4)

Like!

Rather than £20 EW, though, I would always rather hit it harder and win only if we're expecting a shorter price on the day about a near-certain runner. Better to go for £100 win, with a view to laying some back.

See Buttermeup have cut the price already. How much do we think they laid? Really? Or the 'odds compilers' just taking precuations...

[redarmi]

I will put a recc up for thread for the Carling Cup (but it's tomorrow)....

Birmingham at home to Swansea tomorrow are 4/1 best priced with only Bet365, not amazing value as all the other firms are not that far behind, but don't think is a 4/1 price.

Birmingham at home after a decent result at the weekend (FML) and at home to a team who really does need to start using their squad as they are playing a game every other day. I would be very surprised to see any sort of  decent team out for Swansea and expect a full one out for Birmingham.

Recc £15 @ 4-1 with 365.

99% certain Lingard not playing.


I agree with the rationale for this, as I assume Swansea will focus on their Europa adventure this season.  However, I'd want Lingaard to be playing as otherwise just don't just them to score.  Are Man Utd allowing it?

Did we get anywhere with this or have have I scrolled past relevant comments?

It looks as if Lingard is playing as he is priced up with all bookies. However we have lost a little bit of the price as it is now 15/4, but only in one place and I still think it is backable.

Weird scoring market also, Lingard is 8/1 first goalscorer in a few place and then 3/1 is some other!

According to the BBC, NO, he is NOT playing.

Where does that leave us with this proposed bet?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24140580



Birmingham will be without loan signings Jesse Lingard and Kyle Bartley due to the conditions agreed with their parent clubs.

Great salvaging skills Tikay....my quoting skills were a complete fail there....

[aaron1867]

A free bet in the 2.30 and a winner in the 3.05!

[tikay]

A free bet in the 2.30 and a winner in the 3.05!

Oh yes!

The tide it is a turning.

The Free Bet is showing on my Account, too.

We have Grandeur in the next, we have 7/4, currently 11/8.

[tikay]

I will put a recc up for thread for the Carling Cup (but it's tomorrow)....

Birmingham at home to Swansea tomorrow are 4/1 best priced with only Bet365, not amazing value as all the other firms are not that far behind, but don't think is a 4/1 price.

Birmingham at home after a decent result at the weekend (FML) and at home to a team who really does need to start using their squad as they are playing a game every other day. I would be very surprised to see any sort of  decent team out for Swansea and expect a full one out for Birmingham.

Recc £15 @ 4-1 with 365.

99% certain Lingard not playing.


I agree with the rationale for this, as I assume Swansea will focus on their Europa adventure this season.  However, I'd want Lingaard to be playing as otherwise just don't just them to score.  Are Man Utd allowing it?

Did we get anywhere with this or have have I scrolled past relevant comments?

It looks as if Lingard is playing as he is priced up with all bookies. However we have lost a little bit of the price as it is now 15/4, but only in one place and I still think it is backable.

Weird scoring market also, Lingard is 8/1 first goalscorer in a few place and then 3/1 is some other!

According to the BBC, NO, he is NOT playing.

Where does that leave us with this proposed bet?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24140580



Birmingham will be without loan signings Jesse Lingard and Kyle Bartley due to the conditions agreed with their parent clubs.

Great salvaging skills Tikay....my quoting skills were a complete fail there....

No worries. Traditionally, on a poker forum, I'm supposed to do this, but it's all a bit old hat....

[  ] Mad quoting skillz.

#Don'tFollowTheHerd

[tikay]

QIPCO Champion Stakes

This is paraphrasing from a couple of previews etc


Frankel won this last year at 2/11

In the previous ten years no horse under 7/2 has won, average winning price is 19/2 (last 3 years Ascot, before that at Newmarket)

Why? The theory goes that a lot of the horses who run in it  have had long seasons, and by the time the major back end races come around do not run to form. Unexposed or fresh horses improve and beat them

In the market this year you have 3+ horses at the top of the heap that may not run in this. Other targets, including the Arc

These would include the Fugue, Intello and Al Kazeem

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/champion-stakes/winner


So the race may cut up, and we want a fresh horse at a price that we know will run

Mukhadram

- Just failed to beat Al Kazeem at Royal Ascot. We know therefore it has Ascot form. Could use identical tactics in this - front running

- Was cut up in the Eclipse in finishing 3rd, 3 lengths back

- Won at York as expected at odds on


then Haggas put the horse away, with an intention stated in interviews at the time "to come back fresh for the Champion"

Last run was 29th July

It is a certain runner, barring injury.

At 12-1 it is the belief from these previews that as the race cuts up it could start at 5 or 6-1

Timeform has it 6 points below the favourites in rating, but as I have said

- We know it runs
- We don't know how many of the others above it run
- Its fresh, and the higher rated horses less so


I don't get a lot of time to look at racing, but I've spent an hour on this and I think the horse fits the profile of the type of horse we go for ante-post perfectly

Of course, I will bow to the opinions of more experienced judges than I

I recommend £20 e/w Mukhadram at 12-1 (Boylesports probably, though Stan James have e/w paying first 4)

Like!

Rather than £20 EW, though, I would always rather hit it harder and win only if we're expecting a shorter price on the day about a near-certain runner. Better to go for £100 win, with a view to laying some back.

See Buttermeup have cut the price already. How much do we think they laid? Really? Or the 'odds compilers' just taking precuations...

Are you MAD?

£100?

Sheesh.

I had already taken £20 EW @ 12/1, (Boylesports) as suggested by that well known horse racing expert, Tighty.

I have now returned to the scene of the crime & had an £80 WIN with Boylesports.

Paperwork details to follow, nearly nap time here.