Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Strangely enough I have backed Sheff Utd today but not for a top 6 finish. think that is an ok price but really do like the 13/8 that they finish in the top half, it looks far  too big to me.

Happy days.

Reminder to all - this is available to Fred @ 13/8 if we want it, I speculated £80 @ 13/8 last night. If the price has since plunged though, it might be improper at this stage.

Are we still trying to reduce the size of the outstanding book?  

Whoops, got carried away.

Forget that then, I'll keep it for myself. Might even sell it to Milli @ Evens.

[tikay]

The Rugby League World Cup is imminent

RL is not really my sport, but it struck me that there had to be an opportunity in the Tryscorer markets, so here are the results of a couple of hours of research

There are 4 groups, 8 through to the QF. 3 from the 2 strong groups and 1 each from the "also ran" groups

Australia win their group, you would expect, then play an also ran group winner in the QF and then the team that finishes second in the NZ group in the semi final

Its all on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Rugby_League_World_Cup

Meanwhile in the other half NZ would be expected to play Eng in the semi


The point I am making here is that top try scorer should be Australian. They will play, you would think, 6 matches. QF and SF against lesser teams. RL games can be very one sided, becuase in mismatch games the impact of the side conceding the try having to kick off can be enormous

So to the Australian side.

They have a winger who has 13 tries in 13 Tests

In the NRL he has 98 tries in 153 appearances

Inside him he has the best centre around, Michael Jennings (my research tells me)

The playmaker Thurston likes to kick to his wing (my research tells me)

So what price an Australian winger, first choice it appears, for the best side in the tournament with 4 of 6 games against inferior oppostiion?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Morris

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/world-cup/rugby-league-world-cup/top-tournament-try-scorer

10-1 Ladbrokes is the answer (5/2 top 4 on each way terms)  just behind his teammater Slater at fullback and Josh Charnley of England. I know Charnley is a finisher, but I suspect the central case has to be he plays a game less than the Australians, and has to play against Australia and New Zealand in those 5 games

This the most likely scenario as the RLWC isn't the most competitive competition you'll see in terms of depth, so many results and therefore paths through the tournament are quite predictable for the big three sides


Hector, Kinboshi etc to sense test this please.

Brett Morris is 14/1 with Betfred

Tremendous spot, thanks Sharky. We took that.

[tikay]

ends 5-0

not quite sure how robben  and/or kroos did not get one but way it goes

thanks to original poster was a superb game amazed 365 went so big all the main 4

Think Mr Sparrow raised the matter, if so, well done him.

[aaron1867]

Sorry for late reply...

I didn't mean to be harsh to John's bet yesterday, but I just couldn't see them ever getting in the top 6. It has been said they are not a good side & some people do generally think they are in a false position. They are currently where they deserve to be and lots of Blades fans will tell you that.

Lots of questions at Sheffield United at the moment and is Nigel Clough a good manager? He did alright at Burton (?) and he has done nothing at Derby, he has pretty much kept them in the Championship with no progression. But on the other foot, there isn't much out there to choose from, so I don't think it is a bad appointment, but I said that with Weir.

Bobby, with regards to player issue, as soon as you lost Ched Evans and Blackman, you did seem to go out of form, you was in my own opinion very dependent on them & with them in the team in the respective seasons, you would have gone up, definitely with Ched anyway. I don't know what 11/1 is really, I am sure Doobs will tell me that it's if you put £1 on, you could possibly get £12 back , but I just can't see it & I don't know whether it's a good price.

PS - In our local paper it does say they are going to spend with Clough, so who knows...

PPS - I apologise if it sounded I was having a go!

Onto today's racing.....!

[tikay]

I'd much prefer to be on the 13/8 top half finish than Aaron's 6/1 relegation bet on Sheff Utd.

Top 6 is possibly a step too far but the price reflects that.

United will definitely improve.

Especially after 2 good results, new manager appointed and some potential money to spend.

Me too, but I got a Memo from Head of Compliance, proper told me off, gave me a Yellow Card too.

Shocking. 

[horseplayer]

its fine aaron

was a bit frustrated that i felt like you had not read my post, i never stated they were in a false position i also stated i am far from a fan of clough as a manager.

Anyway better judges than me have agreed it was/is a good price some have disagreed all fine but thats why they are a big price

[tikay]

Corners bet for the weekend.

Leicester are by far the most prolific corner-getters in the Championship.
Their home games have gone over 11 corners in the last 10 games, and 16 out of the last 17. (I'm not at home at the minute, so going from memory, so may be one out on one of those numbers).

They play Bournemouth at the weekend, who have an average corner record, but who score goals away from home (think they've scored in every away game this season so far from memory) which is broadly good for corners overs betting.

Current odds are evens for over 11. Should be 3/4 - 4/5 or priced up as under/over 12.

Recommend £30 @ Evens Bet365 Leicester v Bournemouth over 11 corners.

Morning Neil.

I'm backing this, on condition you turn up for the Grand Final this weekend? That seems a reasonable value justification to me......

PS - You won't recognize me, I've lost best part of 2 stone since I last saw you. Just saying, like......

BET PLACED

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/international/breeders-cup-marathon/winner

Breeders cup time again

Would like to propose a first bet in the above staying race.

London Bridge 10/1 Hills £10 win

I am keen to topup on the horse on the american tote on the day when im quite hopeful he will be a bigger price. (Low key connections)

The horse is bred through and through for the dirt and knowing Paul Blockley/Jo Hughes he will have had at least 3 spins around Southwell to show them he handles it. Its bare turf form is easily good enough to get involved here anyway as this is a traditionally weak race full of non stayers and never has beens.

Arch is one of the best dirt sires around and the horse can front run which is ideal at Santa Anita on the dirt.

[Kmac84]

I haven't caught up with Fred so far this morning, incredibly busy at work.  However I wanted to suggest a bet in the 2.20 at Carlisle.  I am weary of Tony McCoy these days, imo not as good as he used to be.  But I buy into the philosophy that sometimes there are horses that win no matter the jockey.

I put Pendra in my tracker well before Cheltenham last year. I was impressed by some of his runs and when he flopped when upped in trip at the festival i wasn't overly concerned and thought he would make a better chaser. The fact that Charlie Longsdon has put him away and will have him well rested but fit imo and bringing him out early in the jump season leads me to believe a big campaign is expected.

The race today looks easy enough on paper.  As to value, well I genuinely thought it was a good odds on shot and was expecting something around 4/7. I almost wet myself with excitement when I seen the racing post had him in at 5/4 alas that was a false dawn.

I think this is a good bet if we can get any 8/11. I haven't checked the price since I got on this morning.

[horseplayer]

Tikay hills have gone 8/1 already no bet for me now until the day on the tote

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/international/breeders-cup-marathon/winner

Breeders cup time again

Would like to propose a first bet in the above staying race.

London Bridge 10/1 Hills £10 win

I am keen to topup on the horse on the american tote on the day when im quite hopeful he will be a bigger price. (Low key connections)

The horse is bred through and through for the dirt and knowing Paul Blockley/Jo Hughes he will have had at least 3 spins around Southwell to show them he handles it. Its bare turf form is easily good enough to get involved here anyway as this is a traditionally weak race full of non stayers and never has beens.

Arch is one of the best dirt sires around and the horse can front run which is ideal at Santa Anita on the dirt.

Thanks John.

The 10/1 with Hills has gone, (8/1 there now) but I thought 9/1 with BetFred was reasonable, so we took that.

BET PLACED

EDIT - BET CANCELLED

[tikay]

Tikay hills have gone 9/1 already no bet for me now until the day on the tote

FML, yesterday I was too slow, today, too fast.

I'll remove that Bet & keep it off-thread, for myself.

[horseplayer]

Tikay hills have gone 9/1 already no bet for me now until the day on the tote

FML, yesterday I was too slow, today, too fast.

I'll remove that Bet & keep it off-thread, for myself.

apologies did not expect it to go that quick with race still a way away

personally im waiting cant see it being any less than 10/1 on the day if it is 15/1+ i might be suggesting a fair bet

[tikay]

I haven't caught up with Fred so far this morning, incredibly busy at work.  However I wanted to suggest a bet in the 2.20 at Carlisle.  I am weary of Tony McCoy these days, imo not as good as he used to be.  But I buy into the philosophy that sometimes there are horses that win no matter the jockey.

I put Pendra in my tracker well before Cheltenham last year. I was impressed by some of his runs and when he flopped when upped in trip at the festival i wasn't overly concerned and thought he would make a better chaser. The fact that Charlie Longsdon has put him away and will have him well rested but fit imo and bringing him out early in the jump season leads me to believe a big campaign is expected.

The race today looks easy enough on paper.  As to value, well I genuinely thought it was a good odds on shot and was expecting something around 4/7. I almost wet myself with excitement when I seen the racing post had him in at 5/4 alas that was a false dawn.

I think this is a good bet if we can get any 8/11. I haven't checked the price since I got on this morning.

Thanks KMac.

I'd need some help with that one before getting on, but 4/5 remains available in a few spots.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/carlisle/14:20/winner

[aaron1867]

I don't know how many of you have been watching the Europa League (I am sure Tal has), or mainly swansea but I have a Recc here for Fred.

Valencia not doing amazing in the Europa League or domestic at home to St Gallen in Swansea's group. There was hardly much between Swansea and St Gallen when they met a few weeks ago and St Gallen lost by one goal, but it could have easily gone either way & I was left impressed by St Gallen, they even missed a penalty, which seemed to be decisive in the end. Swansea have been to Valencia and thrashed them and judging by the performances put in by both St Gallen & Valencia, I'd be much more happy to back St Gallen at 7's to win, than Valencia at very short odds on.

They are 7-1 with Hills (and a couple of others), maybe a place for a free bet. Other wise recc £15 on them.

Also they are 5-1 only with Hills for "Draw no bet", which seems decent. I am not sure where the maths suggests.

But it seems valencia hardly lose, but a draw for either team wouldn't be bad tonight...

Valencia W5 D1 L5 (in all comps)