Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I don't know how many of you have been watching the Europa League (I am sure Tal has), or mainly swansea but I have a Recc here for Fred.

Valencia not doing amazing in the Europa League or domestic at home to St Gallen in Swansea's group. There was hardly much between Swansea and St Gallen when they met a few weeks ago and St Gallen lost by one goal, but it could have easily gone either way & I was left impressed by St Gallen, they even missed a penalty, which seemed to be decisive in the end. Swansea have been to Valencia and thrashed them and judging by the performances put in by both St Gallen & Valencia, I'd be much more happy to back St Gallen at 7's to win, than Valencia at very short odds on.

They are 7-1 with Hills (and a couple of others), maybe a place for a free bet. Other wise recc £15 on them.

Also they are 5-1 only with Hills for "Draw no bet", which seems decent. I am not sure where the maths suggests.

But it seems valencia hardly lose, but a draw for either team wouldn't be bad tonight...

Valencia W5 D1 L5 (in all comps)

Thanks Aaron, lets see what the football & Maths boys have to say. 

[tikay]

Yay, the Admin is back up to date, as are the Bet placings, except those awaiting anwsers or feedback. Miss one day & it's a nightmare to catch up.

Note that bet Placement will be intermittent at best from midday Friday until Monday morning, & there MAY not be Daily Reports this weekend, & if there are, they will be very brief.

SPT Grand Final & Fred Dog's Dinner beckon.

[Bad Beat]

 I agree that Charlie Longsdon is in tremendous form and that Donald McCain is not and I do see this 2.20 as a two-horse race. I don't think the way to take advantage of that is to back Pendra at 8/11 (particularly when you can get closer to 5/6 on the machine). I think the answer is much more likely to be to bet Eduard at close to 9/4.

 I rate Martin Julian as a good judge and I notice he agrees with me.

[BigAdz]

I agree that Charlie Longsdon is in tremendous form and that Donald McCain is not and I do see this 2.20 as a two-horse race. I don't think the way to take advantage of that is to back Pendra at 8/11 (particularly when you can get closer to 5/6 on the machine). I think the answer is much more likely to be to bet Eduard at close to 9/4.

 I rate Martin Julian as a good judge and I notice he agrees with me.

Agree with this.

Its the time of year where we have races like this every day with two hotpot recruits to either hurdles or fences making it a match. Both these horses came up on my tracker today, and first instinct was Pendra. After homework, I note both were rated very similar on hurdle ratings. Both are well thought of, Eduard has Course form, and for Nicky Richards his horses are in good form.

The "value" lies in Eduard IMO, but he could easily get blown away if Pendra is as good as they think, but on all known stuff, the value option is to follow Mr C

[Bad Beat]

Don't mind the thread backing this at 9/4 btw but if I have 7 bets today it might be my 5th biggest.

 I could easily have 7 bets today.

[Simon Galloway]

What might the other 6 be??

[ripple11]

Corners bet for the weekend.

Leicester are by far the most prolific corner-getters in the Championship.
Their home games have gone over 11 corners in the last 10 games, and 16 out of the last 17. (I'm not at home at the minute, so going from memory, so may be one out on one of those numbers).

They play Bournemouth at the weekend, who have an average corner record, but who score goals away from home (think they've scored in every away game this season so far from memory) which is broadly good for corners overs betting.

Current odds are evens for over 11. Should be 3/4 - 4/5 or priced up as under/over 12.

Recommend £30 @ Evens Bet365 Leicester v Bournemouth over 11 corners.

Morning Neil.

I'm backing this, on condition you turn up for the Grand Final this weekend? That seems a reasonable value justification to me......

PS - You won't recognize me, I've lost best part of 2 stone since I last saw you. Just saying, like......

BET PLACED

Like this bet .........although Fred fever has reduced the price to 10/11 with 365.

[tikay]

What might the other 6 be??

Ha!

In like a shot.

[tikay]

This 2.20 affair @ Carlisle.

KMac stuck the jolly up, Lord Grumpy then suggested the second fave @ 9/4, & all agreed, but while we were gassing, folks were boot-filling, & best I can get now is 15/8.  (the quoted 9/4 @ 888 has gone).

I think that is probably a swerve now. I'll keep an eye on the Market though.

[Bad Beat]

 Ok here you go...

 Think I've done all I can to get on so you can have this MAXIMUM BET.

 Have at least £100 ew on Fayette County in the 1.50 at Carlisle.

 I took 13/2 and 6/1 but I would have taken 9/2.

 It's a 3-horse race and Simarthur is the possible weak link. The favourite is 1st time over hurdles so I wouldn't want to back it at evens or shorter.

[aaron1867]

Ok here you go...

 Think I've done all I can to get on so you can have this MAXIMUM BET.

 Have at least £100 ew on Fayette County in the 1.50 at Carlisle.

 I took 13/2 and 6/1 but I would have taken 9/2.

 It's a 3-horse race and Simarthur is the possible weak link. The favourite is 1st time over hurdles so I wouldn't want to back it at evens or shorter.

Painful read this for me, backed Simarthur already

[tikay]

Ok here you go...

 Think I've done all I can to get on so you can have this MAXIMUM BET.

 Have at least £100 ew on Fayette County in the 1.50 at Carlisle.

 I took 13/2 and 6/1 but I would have taken 9/2.

 It's a 3-horse race and Simarthur is the possible weak link. The favourite is 1st time over hurdles so I wouldn't want to back it at evens or shorter.

HOW MUCH?

Strewth.....

[tikay]

Ok here you go...

 Think I've done all I can to get on so you can have this MAXIMUM BET.

 Have at least £100 ew on Fayette County in the 1.50 at Carlisle.

 I took 13/2 and 6/1 but I would have taken 9/2.

 It's a 3-horse race and Simarthur is the possible weak link. The favourite is 1st time over hurdles so I wouldn't want to back it at evens or shorter.

We got 7/1.....!




BET PLACED

[tikay]

Ooooohhhhhh!

2nd.

Delighted with that, & we almost won.

We had £100 EW @ 7/1.

Thanks Neil!

[Simon Galloway]

Nice tip!  McCoy too good.