Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

We on Wells anytime, by any chance..?

[TightEnd]

Samoa are losing 0-14 to Fiji, & the first score was a Try.

We are definitely having one of those days!

was there a bet on the first score not being a try? its RL, the first score wll almost always be a try

[tikay]

...and continuing with today's theme, Wells scores the 2nd goal. Silver lining though, we have him in a Season bet.

[tikay]

Samoa are losing 0-14 to Fiji, & the first score was a Try.

We are definitely having one of those days!

was there a bet on the first score not being a try? its RL, the first score wll almost always be a try

No, a bet was proposed for the first score to be a penalty, (20/1), but we missed the price so did not get on.

[TightEnd]

Neffelers, the second Sky game tonight is San Francisco against New Orleans.

The 49ers are short on passing options and the Saints have a much improved defence. With Manningham likely to have a limited role due to injury, is there value in Jon Baldwin for first TD scorer at 50/1 with Laddiebrooks? Generally 25/1 or 33/1, with 16 on Betdaq, according to Oddschecker.

Baldwin is horrible, which explains the price

Vernon Davis is out, and Kaepernick's big problem is an absence of any reliable receiving weapons through injuries and lack of talent

Wouldn't be on any 49er receiver to score first

[tikay]

The weather is so bad in Cincinnati (outdoor stadium too) that the visiting Browns have cancelled their flights home and have hired buses to take them the journey back across Ohio.

This is the early Sky Game

The points line has adjusted to 40.5

I am a big fan of the Browns +6 sportingbet in wind and rain though, was so even before the storm came in, and wrote it up yesterday. If the Bengals can't pass distances to their Wide receivers it becomes a battle of running games and defenses, and Cleveland's run defense is as good as Cincy's after all the Bengals injuries

6 points in bad weather is a big start.

How much would you suggest?

[TightEnd]

The weather is so bad in Cincinnati (outdoor stadium too) that the visiting Browns have cancelled their flights home and have hired buses to take them the journey back across Ohio.

This is the early Sky Game

The points line has adjusted to 40.5

I am a big fan of the Browns +6 sportingbet in wind and rain though, was so even before the storm came in, and wrote it up yesterday. If the Bengals can't pass distances to their Wide receivers it becomes a battle of running games and defenses, and Cleveland's run defense is as good as Cincy's after all the Bengals injuries

6 points in bad weather is a big start.

How much would you suggest?

On today's evidence, nothing.

Treating the thread as one big long term bet and ignoring short term vairance, a ten pointer, £50

Then do another wind and rain dance. We need the weather to take the Bengals big plays out of the game

[tikay]

....and another for Nicky Nacky......

[Tal]

Neffelers, the second Sky game tonight is San Francisco against New Orleans.

The 49ers are short on passing options and the Saints have a much improved defence. With Manningham likely to have a limited role due to injury, is there value in Jon Baldwin for first TD scorer at 50/1 with Laddiebrooks? Generally 25/1 or 33/1, with 16 on Betdaq, according to Oddschecker.

Baldwin is horrible, which explains the price

Vernon Davis is out, and Kaepernick's big problem is an absence of any reliable receiving weapons through injuries and lack of talent

Wouldn't be on any 49er receiver to score first

Right, this was kind of the basis for my proposal: there are very few options, so the Saints should be able to cover the run of Gore and Kaepernick, plus the one receiver in Boldin.

But if you reckon they'll just go with what they have and run it more in the red zone, fair enough. Had just noticed the injury issues and wondered about alternatives.

[Doobs]

....and another for Nicky Nacky......

At least my logic was sound, and ran well by missing the Betfair price so limiting myself to a tenner.

And we have him at 25/1 and 20/1 for league 1 top goalscorer. 

Glass looking a bit half empty earlier, now resoundingly half full.

[TightEnd]

Neffelers, the second Sky game tonight is San Francisco against New Orleans.

The 49ers are short on passing options and the Saints have a much improved defence. With Manningham likely to have a limited role due to injury, is there value in Jon Baldwin for first TD scorer at 50/1 with Laddiebrooks? Generally 25/1 or 33/1, with 16 on Betdaq, according to Oddschecker.

Baldwin is horrible, which explains the price

Vernon Davis is out, and Kaepernick's big problem is an absence of any reliable receiving weapons through injuries and lack of talent

Wouldn't be on any 49er receiver to score first

Right, this was kind of the basis for my proposal: there are very few options, so the Saints should be able to cover the run of Gore and Kaepernick, plus the one receiver in Boldin.

But if you reckon they'll just go with what they have and run it more in the red zone, fair enough. Had just noticed the injury issues and wondered about alternatives.

Rather than Baldwin (3 receptions all season!) who simply isn't a percentage play here, perm Bruce Miller and Vance McDonald anytime. These two combined have 20 receptions on the season, and are 50-1 and 66-1 FTS if you want two under-recognised plays

Note the 9ers have 9 receiving TDs all season, 7 are Vernon Davis and 2 are Gore out of the backfield

[Tonji]

Betting Emporium ‏@bettingemporium
Neil's Tips are now up for week 11 including an 11 point bet..... http://bettingemporium.com 

[redarmi]

Neffelers, the second Sky game tonight is San Francisco against New Orleans.

The 49ers are short on passing options and the Saints have a much improved defence. With Manningham likely to have a limited role due to injury, is there value in Jon Baldwin for first TD scorer at 50/1 with Laddiebrooks? Generally 25/1 or 33/1, with 16 on Betdaq, according to Oddschecker.

Baldwin is horrible, which explains the price

Vernon Davis is out, and Kaepernick's big problem is an absence of any reliable receiving weapons through injuries and lack of talent

Wouldn't be on any 49er receiver to score first

Davis is upgraded to probable.  On the Cleveland bet does it not worry you that they have no run game (ranked 26th and relying on McGahee)?

[TightEnd]

Neffelers, the second Sky game tonight is San Francisco against New Orleans.

The 49ers are short on passing options and the Saints have a much improved defence. With Manningham likely to have a limited role due to injury, is there value in Jon Baldwin for first TD scorer at 50/1 with Laddiebrooks? Generally 25/1 or 33/1, with 16 on Betdaq, according to Oddschecker.

Baldwin is horrible, which explains the price

Vernon Davis is out, and Kaepernick's big problem is an absence of any reliable receiving weapons through injuries and lack of talent

Wouldn't be on any 49er receiver to score first

Davis is upgraded to probable.  On the Cleveland bet does it not worry you that they have no run game (ranked 26th and relying on McGahee)?

Yes. 

The Bengals are struggling though these last couple of weeks. Two successive OT losses against teams with inferior talent this season and aside from Dalton's travails this is mainly because five defensive starters are out, including Geno Atkins who makes the run defense tick. They desperately need their bye next week.

+6 in bad weather reflects the risks.

[Doobs]

As I was saying earlier, maybe we should gamble on the Wells hatrick.