Tips for Tikay

[ripple11]

TIA Neil 

    running shoes ..check
    plans route.. check
    raids piggy bank.. check

[Bad Beat]

Always a very exciting time of year. We've seen off those horrible end of season flat races and we are through the phoney war phase of summer jumpers vs winter horses having an exercise gallop. Newbury today is proper winter jumping although the ground is actually going to be fairly fast for a November jumps meeting.

 The 1.30 is a great each-way race. We've discussed before about the merits of 16-22 runner handicaps and we've talked about the danger of 16 becoming 15. This one has 21 and they all look set to run. If I want a really excellent each-way 16-runner race I love there to be a fair number of easy to discount 100/1+ runners and this one has four. It's also great if there are one or two 4/1 or less runners as it can make a solid 12/1 horse a bigger price for a place than it should be.

 This race is not 100% perfect in that respect and my selection does not fit into that category, but apart from that I think it's a decent race to really attack as so many of the 25/1 - 40/1 chances can be discounted.

 My list of horses that can be crossed off without too much worrying about them killing me are numbers...2,3,4,6,7,9, 13, 15,18 and 20.

 That leaves us with 11 to work with and 4 places. Lovely.

 Free to Dream is running under a penalty and so it's well-in vs the future rating. The stable is in great form. It's still physically a lot of weight and the price of 10/1 offers little value, but it wouldn't surprise me that much.

 Seventh Sign is also from a stable in flying form, ran it's best race last time and looks like it will love the trip. Again, wouldn't be a massive surprise and 25/1 is fair.

 Chiberta King, again the stable are hot and the horse could be really interesting this season. 10/1 last night looked great, 13/2 looks too short.

 Valid Reason is a bit quirky and not certain to stay, probably close to being on the rule out without worrying list.

 Minella for Steak really wants a lot of cut in the ground. Easy to see this all happening too fast for him. Not for me at this price.

 Western Warhorse is solid enough, but it's also a horse that would prefer cut, a proper winter jumper. 9/2 seems about right and doesn't tempt me to bet.

 Invicta Lake is young and I,mproving but needs to improve again. Could do but not solid for each way.

 There are a couple of outsiders I have bet tiny...

 Virginia Ash is from another stable in decent form. Big price over this trip.

 Kilmurvy a stable I like a lot, the horse is quirky but potentially very good. Big price.

 I've had my second biggest bet on the race on Mickie. Henry Daly always has slow maturing chasers and he's in the best form I can ever remember. The horse ran great last time and I'm sure he'll run well over this trip.

 There is one horse here that I just cannot see being unplaced though. This one is very solid, it should love the step up in trip, the trainer and the owners think it has an outstanding chance and I've had a really decent bet.

 Suggest you lump on Twelve Roses. I'm on at 11/2. Some of the joke firms offer 6/1. I would have happily taken 9/2 and maybe 4/1.

 Would be really shocked if it didn't placed and not shocked at all if it won.

 

[a.sparrow]

Thanks Neil, good luck everyone!

[tikay]

Always a very exciting time of year. We've seen off those horrible end of season flat races and we are through the phoney war phase of summer jumpers vs winter horses having an exercise gallop. Newbury today is proper winter jumping although the ground is actually going to be fairly fast for a November jumps meeting.

 The 1.30 is a great each-way race. We've discussed before about the merits of 16-22 runner handicaps and we've talked about the danger of 16 becoming 15. This one has 21 and they all look set to run. If I want a really excellent each-way 16-runner race I love there to be a fair number of easy to discount 100/1+ runners and this one has four. It's also great if there are one or two 4/1 or less runners as it can make a solid 12/1 horse a bigger price for a place than it should be.

 This race is not 100% perfect in that respect and my selection does not fit into that category, but apart from that I think it's a decent race to really attack as so many of the 25/1 - 40/1 chances can be discounted.

 My list of horses that can be crossed off without too much worrying about them killing me are numbers...2,3,4,6,7,9, 13, 15,18 and 20.

 That leaves us with 11 to work with and 4 places. Lovely.

 Free to Dream is running under a penalty and so it's well-in vs the future rating. The stable is in great form. It's still physically a lot of weight and the price of 10/1 offers little value, but it wouldn't surprise me that much.

 Seventh Sign is also from a stable in flying form, ran it's best race last time and looks like it will love the trip. Again, wouldn't be a massive surprise and 25/1 is fair.

 Chiberta King, again the stable are hot and the horse could be really interesting this season. 10/1 last night looked great, 13/2 looks too short.

 Valid Reason is a bit quirky and not certain to stay, probably close to being on the rule out without worrying list.

 Minella for Steak really wants a lot of cut in the ground. Easy to see this all happening too fast for him. Not for me at this price.

 Western Warhorse is solid enough, but it's also a horse that would prefer cut, a proper winter jumper. 9/2 seems about right and doesn't tempt me to bet.

 Invicta Lake is young and I,mproving but needs to improve again. Could do but not solid for each way.

 There are a couple of outsiders I have bet tiny...

 Virginia Ash is from another stable in decent form. Big price over this trip.

 Kilmurvy a stable I like a lot, the horse is quirky but potentially very good. Big price.

 I've had my second biggest bet on the race on Mickie. Henry Daly always has slow maturing chasers and he's in the best form I can ever remember. The horse ran great last time and I'm sure he'll run well over this trip.

 There is one horse here that I just cannot see being unplaced though. This one is very solid, it should love the step up in trip, the trainer and the owners think it has an outstanding chance and I've had a really decent bet.

 Suggest you lump on Twelve Roses. I'm on at 11/2. Some of the joke firms offer 6/1. I would have happily taken 9/2 and maybe 4/1.

 Would be really shocked if it didn't placed and not shocked at all if it won.

 

Thanks Mr C.

We got badly Restricted by Sporting bet, who offered 6/1, so we only had £6 EW with them. (My limit there was £6.66 EW).

We had our main bet with BetVictor, where we had £50 EW @ 5/1.

I had three "personal" savers, £5 EW, on the other three, but I've left them Off-Thread, unless it is suggested (before 1.30) they should be Fred bets.

Good luck everybody, & thanks again, Neil.

BETS PLACED

[tikay]

Latest prices for that 1.30 are here.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newbury/13:30/winner

[sonour]

Always a very exciting time of year. We've seen off those horrible end of season flat races and we are through the phoney war phase of summer jumpers vs winter horses having an exercise gallop. Newbury today is proper winter jumping although the ground is actually going to be fairly fast for a November jumps meeting.

 The 1.30 is a great each-way race. We've discussed before about the merits of 16-22 runner handicaps and we've talked about the danger of 16 becoming 15. This one has 21 and they all look set to run. If I want a really excellent each-way 16-runner race I love there to be a fair number of easy to discount 100/1+ runners and this one has four. It's also great if there are one or two 4/1 or less runners as it can make a solid 12/1 horse a bigger price for a place than it should be.

 This race is not 100% perfect in that respect and my selection does not fit into that category, but apart from that I think it's a decent race to really attack as so many of the 25/1 - 40/1 chances can be discounted.

 My list of horses that can be crossed off without too much worrying about them killing me are numbers...2,3,4,6,7,9, 13, 15,18 and 20.

 That leaves us with 11 to work with and 4 places. Lovely.

 Free to Dream is running under a penalty and so it's well-in vs the future rating. The stable is in great form. It's still physically a lot of weight and the price of 10/1 offers little value, but it wouldn't surprise me that much.

 Seventh Sign is also from a stable in flying form, ran it's best race last time and looks like it will love the trip. Again, wouldn't be a massive surprise and 25/1 is fair.

 Chiberta King, again the stable are hot and the horse could be really interesting this season. 10/1 last night looked great, 13/2 looks too short.

 Valid Reason is a bit quirky and not certain to stay, probably close to being on the rule out without worrying list.

 Minella for Steak really wants a lot of cut in the ground. Easy to see this all happening too fast for him. Not for me at this price.

 Western Warhorse is solid enough, but it's also a horse that would prefer cut, a proper winter jumper. 9/2 seems about right and doesn't tempt me to bet.

 Invicta Lake is young and I,mproving but needs to improve again. Could do but not solid for each way.

 There are a couple of outsiders I have bet tiny...

 Virginia Ash is from another stable in decent form. Big price over this trip.

 Kilmurvy a stable I like a lot, the horse is quirky but potentially very good. Big price.

 I've had my second biggest bet on the race on Mickie. Henry Daly always has slow maturing chasers and he's in the best form I can ever remember. The horse ran great last time and I'm sure he'll run well over this trip.

 There is one horse here that I just cannot see being unplaced though. This one is very solid, it should love the step up in trip, the trainer and the owners think it has an outstanding chance and I've had a really decent bet.

 Suggest you lump on Twelve Roses. I'm on at 11/2. Some of the joke firms offer 6/1. I would have happily taken 9/2 and maybe 4/1.

 Would be really shocked if it didn't placed and not shocked at all if it won.

 

Got on in 3 Stan James shops.. Had to do a change of outfits and hats between each one !!

Thanks Neil.

[tikay]

Always a very exciting time of year. We've seen off those horrible end of season flat races and we are through the phoney war phase of summer jumpers vs winter horses having an exercise gallop. Newbury today is proper winter jumping although the ground is actually going to be fairly fast for a November jumps meeting.

 The 1.30 is a great each-way race. We've discussed before about the merits of 16-22 runner handicaps and we've talked about the danger of 16 becoming 15. This one has 21 and they all look set to run. If I want a really excellent each-way 16-runner race I love there to be a fair number of easy to discount 100/1+ runners and this one has four. It's also great if there are one or two 4/1 or less runners as it can make a solid 12/1 horse a bigger price for a place than it should be.

 This race is not 100% perfect in that respect and my selection does not fit into that category, but apart from that I think it's a decent race to really attack as so many of the 25/1 - 40/1 chances can be discounted.

 My list of horses that can be crossed off without too much worrying about them killing me are numbers...2,3,4,6,7,9, 13, 15,18 and 20.

 That leaves us with 11 to work with and 4 places. Lovely.

 Free to Dream is running under a penalty and so it's well-in vs the future rating. The stable is in great form. It's still physically a lot of weight and the price of 10/1 offers little value, but it wouldn't surprise me that much.

 Seventh Sign is also from a stable in flying form, ran it's best race last time and looks like it will love the trip. Again, wouldn't be a massive surprise and 25/1 is fair.

 Chiberta King, again the stable are hot and the horse could be really interesting this season. 10/1 last night looked great, 13/2 looks too short.

 Valid Reason is a bit quirky and not certain to stay, probably close to being on the rule out without worrying list.

 Minella for Steak really wants a lot of cut in the ground. Easy to see this all happening too fast for him. Not for me at this price.

 Western Warhorse is solid enough, but it's also a horse that would prefer cut, a proper winter jumper. 9/2 seems about right and doesn't tempt me to bet.

 Invicta Lake is young and I,mproving but needs to improve again. Could do but not solid for each way.

 There are a couple of outsiders I have bet tiny...

 Virginia Ash is from another stable in decent form. Big price over this trip.

 Kilmurvy a stable I like a lot, the horse is quirky but potentially very good. Big price.

 I've had my second biggest bet on the race on Mickie. Henry Daly always has slow maturing chasers and he's in the best form I can ever remember. The horse ran great last time and I'm sure he'll run well over this trip.

 There is one horse here that I just cannot see being unplaced though. This one is very solid, it should love the step up in trip, the trainer and the owners think it has an outstanding chance and I've had a really decent bet.

 Suggest you lump on Twelve Roses. I'm on at 11/2. Some of the joke firms offer 6/1. I would have happily taken 9/2 and maybe 4/1.

 Would be really shocked if it didn't placed and not shocked at all if it won.

 

Got on in 3 Stan James shops.. Had to do a change of outfits and hats between each one !!

Thanks Neil.

!

Good luck Mrs Bandit.

Fingers crossed for everybody.

[Bad Beat]

 Stan James shops? Maybe I should move to Birmingham.

 This big drift feels horrible.

[tikay]

The pace is pretty decent, which I think we wanted.

[Doobs]

OiOi

[tikay]

Ooh!


Looked a winner 2 out, but made a slight mistake, & then seemed to get run out of it.

4th, so a small profit, as we had quarter odds @ 5/1 with BMU, & 6/1 qtr odds with Sporting Bet.

[Marky147]

OiOi

Strictly airing Friday lunchtimes now?

[Tal]

Toni Basil would be delighted.

I'm happy as a pig in muck, too. Thanks, Mr C.

[Doobs]

Ooh!


Looked a winner 2 out, but made a slight mistake, & then seemed to get run out of it.

4th, so a small profit, as we had quarter odds @ 5/1 with BMU, & 6/1 qtr odds with Sporting Bet.

Mickie won?!  Thanks Neil, almost forgot this and just got on in time

[ripple11]

Great work Neil...thanks!