Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

I think there is an interesting bet in the NFL today.  Arizona travel to Philly with a general line of Philly -3.5 and a total of 48.5.  Normally in these spots the total and the pointspread are totally unrelated but I don't think that is the case here.  Philly score a lot of points and like to run up and down the field at a high tempo.  If they do this, imo, they win and cover.  Arizonas only chance is to control the pace of the game and stop Phillys offense.  If they do this they not only win the game (or at the very least cover) but the game will go under more often than 50% of the time.  Seems a good spot for a double to me.  Suggest 50 double on Arizona +3.5 and under 48.5 both at 10/11 with Ladbrokes.

Thank you, redarmi

Nice.

I missed this myself, but congrats to those who were on.

Betfair do a spread/points double on every game, but I'm unsure if the prices are 'good'

[Sheriff Fatman]

vcbet have just gone up 16/1 appleton next sheff wed manager

get as much on as you can with them before it goes

he was in the directors box yesterday

no inside word or anything but he seems a fairly obvious fit and the fact he happened to be at the game yesterday makes 16's way out imo

Oh please, yes, let it be so!  Perfect fit.

[bobby1]

Hi Omm,

Without looking my admittedly split second price was about 12/1. Having looked at the list tho there are a load of players there I couldn't bet with counterfeit at these prices.

Rory is swinging nicely back into form but Stenny can have black spells and far from certain to maintain is current form for the next year. Rose will no doubt be steady but outside those three it feels like the gap between Poulter and some of the players in behind him should be much bigger. I picked about 25 prices out of that list that look laughable too. Schwartzel at 28/1 would be my idea of one of the better prices in that list too coz if he regains his putting touch this season the rest of his game is in very good shape and obv he might get the ball rolling with a win 2morrow, all be it a pretty low key one.

Poulter's lack of wins would be the drawback but his major record is good and he loves money so at 16/1 I think you have a really good each way bet at a qtr the first 4.

cheers

Did you know something that we did not?.........

Good luck on Monday in Seattle. Go the, umm, Seahawks.

tx mate, can't wait.

I would have rather Rory waited until the next event to put up a six under and win when 1 behind with 1 to play. ;o(

[tikay]

Purely speculative on my part, but the name has been circulating for a few weeks due to the Chairman's previous links, but I recommend £10 (max allowed) on Mike Phelan at 33/1 as next Barnsley manager with Uncle Vic.

Treat it as a low risk punt that might pay off.

This was a great market last time around - 33/1 was available on Flitcroft two days before he was appointed.

Micky Mellon is in place as caretaker manager and also worth £10 at 16/1 currently.

Sorry Curtis, I was a bit busy elsewhere yesterday, & missed all this.

Phelan now 16/1 best, 14/1 to Fred, so I've missed that boat.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/barnsley/next-permanent-manager

[tikay]

I now understand why Appleton is currently favourite.   It's due to our new Chief Exec, Ben Mansford, being his agent previously:

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/sport/pompey/appleton-encouraged-by-positive-trust-talks-1-4424830


Given that he'd be a universally unpopular choice among the fan-base (and the anti-Appleton campaign now seems to have been kicked off in earnest on the forums), this appointment will be an interesting test for Mansford, who's done all the right things so far in terms of supporter engagement, but would undo that in a heartbeat if Skeletor gets the job.

Take your own views on what this means for Appleton's prospects, but for now I'm viewing this as the first (hopefully) unrealistic candidate to be installed as favourite, and I expect his price to shorten as the link to Mansford becomes more widely public.  He was 3/1 yesterday, now 2/1, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him go odds on between now and Wednesday.  From my perspective, that means potential value elsewhere while this happens.  Currently, 12/1 on Mellon (in from 16/1) is still the one that stands out for now.  If anything, the Appleton link will strengthen Mellon's core support for now and perhaps make him the 'acceptable' alternative.

Right, time to add my voice to the 'anyone but Skeletor' campaign!

I missed this, too.

Appleton has gone the other way, & is now 10/1.

Mellon is now 3/1.

You'll need to steer me carefully here, as I'm a bit lost with all this, & the various candidates.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/portsmouth/next-permanent-manager

[tikay]

vcbet have just gone up 16/1 appleton next sheff wed manager

get as much on as you can with them before it goes

he was in the directors box yesterday

no inside word or anything but he seems a fairly obvious fit and the fact he happened to be at the game yesterday makes 16's way out imo

Ugh, I was working last night, & so missed this - he is now 5/1, so a "no bet" I assume.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/sheff-wed/next-permanent-manager

[tikay]

I miss the photo gallery, so I'm putting this up:

Click to see full-size image.

The Buffalo Bills are playing a home game in Toronto, as they do every year. A spectator has drawn attention.

That's the Mayor, Rob Ford. You may remember him from making the news once or twice in the last couple of weeks. He's in a Fred Jackson jersey. I imagine Jackson is delighted.

 

Oh dear.......

[tikay]

On Wednesday, tearaway league leaders Arsenal (ooh, that sounds so good) are at home to Hull City.

Hull City just beat Livepool, so their tails are up, but they don't travel well, only about 4 points away from home I think.

But they are a whopping 14/1 generally, 17/1 with BetVictor. Betfair, in a thin market, are about the same, 17.5.


Seems a big price to me, though a high-variance bet.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-hull/winner

[Skippy]

vcbet have just gone up 16/1 appleton next sheff wed manager

get as much on as you can with them before it goes

he was in the directors box yesterday

no inside word or anything but he seems a fairly obvious fit and the fact he happened to be at the game yesterday makes 16's way out imo

Ugh, I was working last night, & so missed this - he is now 5/1, so a "no bet" I assume.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/sheff-wed/next-permanent-manager

I might be wrong, but haven't you knocked it in repeatedly doing next manager markets? It just doesn't seem like a viable betting medium to me- you can't show better judgement than other people when other people know the answer, and you are trying to assess the probabilities.

[tikay]

vcbet have just gone up 16/1 appleton next sheff wed manager

get as much on as you can with them before it goes

he was in the directors box yesterday

no inside word or anything but he seems a fairly obvious fit and the fact he happened to be at the game yesterday makes 16's way out imo

Ugh, I was working last night, & so missed this - he is now 5/1, so a "no bet" I assume.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/sheff-wed/next-permanent-manager

I might be wrong, but haven't you knocked it in repeatedly doing next manager markets? It just doesn't seem like a viable betting medium to me- you can't show better judgement than other people when other people know the answer, and you are trying to assess the probabilities.

Personally?

I tend to agree, I find these Markets very sensitive, & we can end up chasing shadows. As you suggest, the "insiders" generally know the score.

The Markets are so sensitive, too, & we can rarely get much on.

That's just my personal view, though, but now & then some real value can be found, & I'm OK with that, as long as we don't go silly.

My nightmare scenario would be only two betting markets exist, one for "Next Manager" & the other for Nonsense Reality TV guff. Perish the thought, eh?

In truth, I have no idea how Fred stands, profit or loss, on "Next Manager" Markets. Sample size applies I suppose, we've not backed many. Can't recall many successes though. Think we had the Ireland Manager? Maybe Kenny Jackett?

[david3103]

On Wednesday, tearaway league leaders Arsenal (ooh, that sounds so good) are at home to Hull City.

Hull City just beat Livepool, so their tails are up, but they don't travel well, only about 4 points away from home I think.

But they are a whopping 14/1 generally, 17/1 with BetVictor. Betfair, in a thin market, are about the same, 17.5.


Seems a big price to me, though a high-variance bet.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-hull/winner

Would you entertain this if it were posted by a Hull City fan?

[horseplayer]

vcbet have just gone up 16/1 appleton next sheff wed manager

get as much on as you can with them before it goes

he was in the directors box yesterday

no inside word or anything but he seems a fairly obvious fit and the fact he happened to be at the game yesterday makes 16's way out imo

Ugh, I was working last night, & so missed this - he is now 5/1, so a "no bet" I assume.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/sheff-wed/next-permanent-manager

I might be wrong, but haven't you knocked it in repeatedly doing next manager markets? It just doesn't seem like a viable betting medium to me- you can't show better judgement than other people when other people know the answer, and you are trying to assess the probabilities.

Agree with that, it was just quite obvious the 16/1 was to big (now as short as 3/1 with sj)

Whether he gets the job i have no idea

[Tal]

Hull did manage to topple the "trying to walk it in" arsenal in 2008 at the Emirates. Geovanni scored a corker and Daniel Cousin a header to seal a 2-1 win in the days of Phil Brown.

Long old time ago, that.

The report I've just found about the game has a line from Macbeth in it, describing Arsenal's play that day: "A whole lot of sound and fury signifying nothing." The irony of that, now, looking at the North London neighbours. Well, former neighbours.

Anyway, stop picking on us or we'll send the Boas round.

[DungBeetle]

I hate to say it, but I'm slightly worried about Fred's £700 bet on Watford to finish in the top half.  Felt like it was buying money at the time, but the last few performances have been dreadful.  More worryingly, Zola doesnt' seem to know what to do - the 3-5-2 which works away from home simply doesn't work at home as teams sit back.  Yet time and again Zola lines up with the same formation.

Although Abdi is badly missed, the players at Zola's disposal are clearly talented enough to finish in the top 6, but he struggles to unlock their potential.  Further clouds exist in rumours about dressing room unrest between Deeney and Forestieri who are both key players this year.

We have Leeds and Burnley away this week, before Sheff Weds at home, so not an easy run (as Sheff Wed will have a new manager in place by then).  I feel like the Pozzos are in for the long term, so I think Zola will be given more time and the owners wouldn't act till January at the earliest if things don't improve.

But as a supporter the dramatic decline in performances really worries me and I'm starting to think Zola isn't the man to turn it round.  I'm also worried that Zola himself has come out and said that the players aren't listening to him.  Given the stroing personalities in the dressing room they could easily split into factions if the manager isn't holding them together.

[tikay]

On Wednesday, tearaway league leaders Arsenal (ooh, that sounds so good) are at home to Hull City.

Hull City just beat Livepool, so their tails are up, but they don't travel well, only about 4 points away from home I think.

But they are a whopping 14/1 generally, 17/1 with BetVictor. Betfair, in a thin market, are about the same, 17.5.


Seems a big price to me, though a high-variance bet.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-hull/winner

Would you entertain this if it were posted by a Hull City fan?

I may or may not, but I'd auto-discount the recomend to a degree anyway, x%, as I always do with "homer" suggestions. (Ant & Palace, Plinop & Newcastle, etc). It's natural & correct so to do, imo, as they don't & can't see the situation impartially. Not a dig, not at all, just a fact of life.

I don't have a strong view either way on the game, but 17/1 just looked a bit big. Hull are, I think, about 10th in the table.

I think they'd win this game more than once in 16, but I won't live long enough to see the variance out.

I'm actually curious to know how we'd get on backing PL teams in games where they are, say, 16/1 or better. 16/1 in a three way bet is pretty big.