Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Haven't time for a full explanation, but our old friend Harris Tweed runs at York today.

However, conditions couldn't be more different than at Newbury..

I suggest laying him for a place for £100 @ 1.66

We have placed it, though very little of it matched yet.

£100 lay @ 1.68, Harris Tweed, 2.30 York.

ON

For the record, this has all been Matched.  The LAY price is now 1.52. (We are on @ 1.68).

[Doobs]

If you are going to be betting the CL final, please remember the PP MoneyBackSpecial...money back on losing bets up to £100 per person if Chelsea win

Been mulling a bet on Mario Gomez for first and last goalscorer and I think this tips it over the edge.  Over the course of the season he has scored 34% of their goals and I think that is a fairly solid number.  On the general market prices this makes him a 5.2 chance.  I think there is a serious possibility that he should be in for a little more in a game like this with starting central defenders out but it doesn't really matter because he is available at 5.5 with paddy power and they will give us our money back if Chelsea win which is slightly positively correlated with a bet on Gomez (ie if he doesn't score the first goal then Chelsea players are more likely to and then go on and win).  I would suggest a £25 on first goalscorer and £25 on last goalscorer.  Would appreciate advfn's view on this one as he is pretty good at these but I can't see any way it is -EV.

Nico29 was extremely strong on this on the sweepstake thread, where we have a freeroll on

He said

"I would try and split this.

Paddy power have an offer on:

Money-Back Special
If Chelsea win the Champions League, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score & Scorecast singles on the match

Max refund of £100 per customer.

Prety sure you can place this via the shops too though not 100 percent sure. I really like having a 15/8 saver-odds of chelsea lifting trophy-in case the bet loses.

Personally I'd back Gomez to score first at a joint industry best price of 4's for £100 and if it loses but the blues win, refund!

Superb scoring record versus a very fragile looking Chelsea defence."

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=54629.120

Agreed, much better bet than mine!

Doobsy,

Does that mean you are "withdrawing" your recommend of Chelsea @ 4.8?

Yep, always happy to change my mind if a better bet comes along.  Always felt it to be less value than in the home game vs Barca. FWIW can't see much value in the championship playoff either

Have backed the Chelsea win and the suggested first goalscorer on my own mug account

[Chompy]

Very keen on Hudders to beat t'Blades. T'Blades have fallen in a hole since Ched vanished and looked toothless against a very limited Stevenage side (we'll have Bostwick ta very much).

The two gee-gee tips were really designed as trades but you didn't get enough on to make it worthwhile, so let'em ride.

[tikay]

Very keen on Hudders to beat t'Blades. T'Blades have fallen in a hole since Ched vanished and looked toothless against a very limited Stevenage side (we'll have Bostwick ta very much).

The two gee-gee tips were really designed as trades but you didn't get enough on to make it worthwhile, so let'em ride.

If you had either said that, or specified an amount for each bet......

Anyway, we are on now, maybe they'll both scoot home, hardy-heldy.

[MANTIS01]

Your love is my love. And my love is your love. No matter what people say. I'll be waiting for you after judgement day.

Yes that's right folks, Vince Kidd will be singing the Whitney Houston classic Your Love is My Love tomorrow night on The Voice. How beautiful. His song choices have been so smart bringing a ultra modern twist to Madonna, Elvis and now Whitney. It will be a crucial night because Jessie J has 4 remaining acts and only 2 will make it through. Toni Warne and Cassisus Henry are both 100/1 to win and I will be shocked if those aren't the two who sadly depart. This leaves Becky Hill who I like a lot and our man Vincent.

The act with the most public votes goes straight through and Jessie J chooses the other act. Considering Jessie is in twitter love with Vince he is a lock to get her vote, but needless to say we want him to get the public vote to confirm he has a big following out there. I have it on good authority Vince will not be bringing ovens, fridge-freezers or any other white goods on stage to assist his performance. Next week when just 8 remain that fantasy 25/1 Tikay reckons he can get will look rather good value imo.

Fly us all to Vegas one time pls Vince. Your love is my love.

[tikay]

Your love is my love. And my love is your love. No matter what people say. I'll be waiting for you after judgement day.

Yes that's right folks, Vince Kidd will be singing the Whitney Houston classic Your Love is My Love tomorrow night on The Voice. How beautiful. His song choices have been so smart bringing a ultra modern twist to Madonna, Elvis and now Whitney. It will be a crucial night because Jessie J has 4 remaining acts and only 2 will make it through. Toni Warne and Cassisus Henry are both 100/1 to win and I will be shocked if those aren't the two who sadly depart. This leaves Becky Hill who I like a lot and our man Vincent.

The act with the most public votes goes straight through and Jessie J chooses the other act. Considering Jessie is in twitter love with Vince he is a lock to get her vote, but needless to say we want him to get the public vote to confirm he has a big following out there. I have it on good authority Vince will not be bringing ovens, fridge-freezers or any other white goods on stage to assist his performance. Next week when just 8 remain that fantasy 25/1 Tikay reckons he can get will look rather good value imo.

Fly us all to Vegas one time pls Vince. Your love is my love.

I reckon Vince just needs to dress up like a Russian granny, & the job will be a good 'un. Vince Kidd, that is, not MereVince, heaven forbid.

Your love is my loveeeeeeeee

[tikay]

Rose, 4 up after 10.

We have a decent single on him, AND the Double.

Your love is my love.........

[tikay]

Harris Tweed finished 3rd, so I think we lost £68. Stewards Inquiry, please!

1st  7 Red Cadeaux  4-1 
 2nd  5 Glen's Diamond  25-1 
 3rd  6 Harris Tweed  9-4 F 

[tikay]

Meanwhile, Rose is motoring on - 5 UP after 13. Nearly home & rosed.

[ACE2M]

our outright pick grace is in a playoff with bjorn right now if you want to watch your money.

[ACE2M]

our outright pick grace is in a playoff with bjorn right now if you want to watch your money.

double bogey puts him out, shame, he was playing well today.

Rose is home so the farm is safe.

[tikay]

our outright pick grace is in a playoff with bjorn right now if you want to watch your money.

double bogey puts him out, shame, he was playing well today.

Rose is home so the farm is safe.

Well done!

Think we cleared over £300 all told on the three bets.

Fantastic stuff, well spotted.

"...the complilers must be mental....."

[horseplayer]

well spotted sir

[hector62]

Our selection in the matchplay golf, Nicolas Colsaerts, has taken the tournament by storm. Narrowly failing to win his first match, losing the 18th hole meant he halved it, he fought back to get  beaten in his 2nd match by Retief Goosen.

However, following on in a long line of gallant Belgians ( Eddie Merckyx, Hercule Poirot and TinTin) he refused to lie down, and found himself in a playoff versus Charl Schwartzel to see who would progress from the group. With a birdie at the first hole our man was victorious and has progressed to the last 16, where he will fear no one.

They really have managed to ruin a perfectly wonderful tournament with this group stage rubbish.

[bobby1]

well done Tom, never a sweat this afternoon.