Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

If you are going to be betting the CL final, please remember the PP MoneyBackSpecial...money back on losing bets up to £100 per person if Chelsea win

Been mulling a bet on Mario Gomez for first and last goalscorer and I think this tips it over the edge.  Over the course of the season he has scored 34% of their goals and I think that is a fairly solid number.  On the general market prices this makes him a 5.2 chance.  I think there is a serious possibility that he should be in for a little more in a game like this with starting central defenders out but it doesn't really matter because he is available at 5.5 with paddy power and they will give us our money back if Chelsea win which is slightly positively correlated with a bet on Gomez (ie if he doesn't score the first goal then Chelsea players are more likely to and then go on and win).  I would suggest a £25 on first goalscorer and £25 on last goalscorer.  Would appreciate advfn's view on this one as he is pretty good at these but I can't see any way it is -EV.

[TightEnd]

If you are going to be betting the CL final, please remember the PP MoneyBackSpecial...money back on losing bets up to £100 per person if Chelsea win

Been mulling a bet on Mario Gomez for first and last goalscorer and I think this tips it over the edge.  Over the course of the season he has scored 34% of their goals and I think that is a fairly solid number.  On the general market prices this makes him a 5.2 chance.  I think there is a serious possibility that he should be in for a little more in a game like this with starting central defenders out but it doesn't really matter because he is available at 5.5 with paddy power and they will give us our money back if Chelsea win which is slightly positively correlated with a bet on Gomez (ie if he doesn't score the first goal then Chelsea players are more likely to and then go on and win).  I would suggest a £25 on first goalscorer and £25 on last goalscorer.  Would appreciate advfn's view on this one as he is pretty good at these but I can't see any way it is -EV.

Nico29 was extremely strong on this on the sweepstake thread, where we have a freeroll on

He said

"I would try and split this.

Paddy power have an offer on:

Money-Back Special
If Chelsea win the Champions League, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score & Scorecast singles on the match

Max refund of £100 per customer.

Prety sure you can place this via the shops too though not 100 percent sure. I really like having a 15/8 saver-odds of chelsea lifting trophy-in case the bet loses.

Personally I'd back Gomez to score first at a joint industry best price of 4's for £100 and if it loses but the blues win, refund!

Superb scoring record versus a very fragile looking Chelsea defence."

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=54629.120

[Doobs]

If you are going to be betting the CL final, please remember the PP MoneyBackSpecial...money back on losing bets up to £100 per person if Chelsea win

Been mulling a bet on Mario Gomez for first and last goalscorer and I think this tips it over the edge.  Over the course of the season he has scored 34% of their goals and I think that is a fairly solid number.  On the general market prices this makes him a 5.2 chance.  I think there is a serious possibility that he should be in for a little more in a game like this with starting central defenders out but it doesn't really matter because he is available at 5.5 with paddy power and they will give us our money back if Chelsea win which is slightly positively correlated with a bet on Gomez (ie if he doesn't score the first goal then Chelsea players are more likely to and then go on and win).  I would suggest a £25 on first goalscorer and £25 on last goalscorer.  Would appreciate advfn's view on this one as he is pretty good at these but I can't see any way it is -EV.

Nico29 was extremely strong on this on the sweepstake thread, where we have a freeroll on

He said

"I would try and split this.

Paddy power have an offer on:

Money-Back Special
If Chelsea win the Champions League, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score & Scorecast singles on the match

Max refund of £100 per customer.

Prety sure you can place this via the shops too though not 100 percent sure. I really like having a 15/8 saver-odds of chelsea lifting trophy-in case the bet loses.

Personally I'd back Gomez to score first at a joint industry best price of 4's for £100 and if it loses but the blues win, refund!

Superb scoring record versus a very fragile looking Chelsea defence."

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=54629.120

Agreed, much better bet than mine!

[ACE2M]

If you are going to be betting the CL final, please remember the PP MoneyBackSpecial...money back on losing bets up to £100 per person if Chelsea win

Been mulling a bet on Mario Gomez for first and last goalscorer and I think this tips it over the edge.  Over the course of the season he has scored 34% of their goals and I think that is a fairly solid number.  On the general market prices this makes him a 5.2 chance.  I think there is a serious possibility that he should be in for a little more in a game like this with starting central defenders out but it doesn't really matter because he is available at 5.5 with paddy power and they will give us our money back if Chelsea win which is slightly positively correlated with a bet on Gomez (ie if he doesn't score the first goal then Chelsea players are more likely to and then go on and win).  I would suggest a £25 on first goalscorer and £25 on last goalscorer.  Would appreciate advfn's view on this one as he is pretty good at these but I can't see any way it is -EV.

Nico29 was extremely strong on this on the sweepstake thread, where we have a freeroll on

He said

"I would try and split this.

Paddy power have an offer on:

Money-Back Special
If Chelsea win the Champions League, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score & Scorecast singles on the match

Max refund of £100 per customer.

Prety sure you can place this via the shops too though not 100 percent sure. I really like having a 15/8 saver-odds of chelsea lifting trophy-in case the bet loses.

Personally I'd back Gomez to score first at a joint industry best price of 4's for £100 and if it loses but the blues win, refund!

Superb scoring record versus a very fragile looking Chelsea defence."

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=54629.120

how do you think it compares with betfred, double, treble odds offer if he scores again?

[redarmi]

how do you think it compares with betfred, double, treble odds offer if he scores again?

I thought about that but I like to be sure I have value on the underlying bet so the fact Paddy's are 9/2 and Freds 4/1 swung it for me.  Freds offer is generally better for games with higher goal expectancies also for obvious reasons.

[MereNovice]

Rose 2 up over Clarke after 2 holes.

[Nico29]

Yep really like the gomez bet, especially now they are 9-2, fred a good offer but pads1 has to be the one for me with the better price and the chelsea saver.

[sweet potata!]

Is this golf on tv? cant find it on Sky or BBC. TIA

[sweet potata!]

Its ok I see its back on sky at 2! , Must be the afternoon break or something

[tikay]

Rose 2 up over Clarke after 2 holes.

Make that 3 up after 4.

[tikay]

If you are going to be betting the CL final, please remember the PP MoneyBackSpecial...money back on losing bets up to £100 per person if Chelsea win

Been mulling a bet on Mario Gomez for first and last goalscorer and I think this tips it over the edge.  Over the course of the season he has scored 34% of their goals and I think that is a fairly solid number.  On the general market prices this makes him a 5.2 chance.  I think there is a serious possibility that he should be in for a little more in a game like this with starting central defenders out but it doesn't really matter because he is available at 5.5 with paddy power and they will give us our money back if Chelsea win which is slightly positively correlated with a bet on Gomez (ie if he doesn't score the first goal then Chelsea players are more likely to and then go on and win).  I would suggest a £25 on first goalscorer and £25 on last goalscorer.  Would appreciate advfn's view on this one as he is pretty good at these but I can't see any way it is -EV.

Nico29 was extremely strong on this on the sweepstake thread, where we have a freeroll on

He said

"I would try and split this.

Paddy power have an offer on:

Money-Back Special
If Chelsea win the Champions League, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score & Scorecast singles on the match

Max refund of £100 per customer.

Prety sure you can place this via the shops too though not 100 percent sure. I really like having a 15/8 saver-odds of chelsea lifting trophy-in case the bet loses.

Personally I'd back Gomez to score first at a joint industry best price of 4's for £100 and if it loses but the blues win, refund!

Superb scoring record versus a very fragile looking Chelsea defence."

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=54629.120

Agreed, much better bet than mine!

Doobsy,

Does that mean you are "withdrawing" your recommend of Chelsea @ 4.8?

[tikay]

If you are going to be betting the CL final, please remember the PP MoneyBackSpecial...money back on losing bets up to £100 per person if Chelsea win

Been mulling a bet on Mario Gomez for first and last goalscorer and I think this tips it over the edge.  Over the course of the season he has scored 34% of their goals and I think that is a fairly solid number.  On the general market prices this makes him a 5.2 chance.  I think there is a serious possibility that he should be in for a little more in a game like this with starting central defenders out but it doesn't really matter because he is available at 5.5 with paddy power and they will give us our money back if Chelsea win which is slightly positively correlated with a bet on Gomez (ie if he doesn't score the first goal then Chelsea players are more likely to and then go on and win).  I would suggest a £25 on first goalscorer and £25 on last goalscorer.  Would appreciate advfn's view on this one as he is pretty good at these but I can't see any way it is -EV.

Red,

Can you clarify - do you want that we go with exactly this?

Been a lot of debate, & my head is spinning here!

Let me know, in the fullness of time, please.

If we did this, would it then make no sense to bet Chelsea @ 4.8 or whatever, as suggested by Doobs?

I just need a steer on this, please.

[redarmi]

Yeah would suggest £25 on Gmoez first goal scorer and £25 last goalscorer both at 9/2 with Paddy Power.

[tikay]

Not a tip yet Teeks but noticed Huddersfield are the underdogs for the League 1 play off final. Slightyly surprised by that. The thread has won 1 lost 1 on them but I fancy them to beat Sheff U and think the price may shorten so worth getting people's thoughts.

Thanks Jose.

There has been more positive than negative sentiment for this, & you note that the price may shorten, so we've had £60 @ 15/8 with Mr Coral. Be nice to get the thread 2-1 up on Huddersfield!

ON

Single(s) - Win Receipt No.: 27638606 
Sheffield United v Huddersfield - Match (90 Minutes Play) 
Huddersfield @ 15/8 
 
Stake: £60.00 (£60.00 x 1 line) 
Estimated Returns: £ 172.80 

[tikay]

Yeah would suggest £25 on Gmoez first goal scorer and £25 last goalscorer both at 9/2 with Paddy Power.

And that is what we have, with the "Money Back Guarantee" if CFC lift the trophy.

£25 Gomez FIRST Goalscorer @ 9/2, another £25 ditto Gomez on LAST Goalscorer, £50 staked, with PP.

ON

Champions League Matches Bayern Munich v Chelsea 
19-05-2012 19:45
Last Goalscorer
M Gomez @ 9/2
 
Champions League Matches Bayern Munich v Chelsea 
19-05-2012 19:45
First Goalscorer
M Gomez @ 9/2
 
Your Bets Win
Single: M Gomez @ 9/2
1 line at £25.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £25.00
Potential returns: £137.50
No: O/23146337/0000035

 
Win
Single: M Gomez @ 9/2
1 line at £25.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £25.00
Potential returns: £137.50