Well I can't compete with the value of the Ladbrokes offer but think I see a 6/4 shot priced up at 19/10. So suggest £40 with BetVictor for Hampton and Richmond Borough to win against Dulwich Hamlet. Is that amount alright for the liquidity of the market and for the protection of a prized account? Whatever you are comfortable with Tikay.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/isthmian-premier/dulwich-v-hampton-and-richmond/winnerHamlet have played their last two games with their new stand in goalkeeper, and lost both. Of the last game he was at fault for both. Go to 2.50 (rash giveaway of a penalty after a decent save) and 6.50 (the worst dealing of a tame cross I think I have ever seen) for the goals Kingstonian scored against Hamlet in the link below and you will see what I mean. It may look harsh I am having a go, but I can just tell he is a liability and is probably stressing out his backline.
Despite this Hamlet are a good footballing side and have the lions share of possession in most games. They can push forward very quickly, and on the ball their passing from the back to front is good but often where they fall flat is the conversion to goals and they aren't incredibly threatening. They haven't a good striker at the moment and have no one with enough shot power to threaten from range so teams with a decent amount of sense like Kingstonian here, just get men behind the ball and play very deep. As they know Hamlet would be threatening if they found it easier to get in behind in the box for more of a tap in type goal. So teams are countering their threat more here. But this applies to the better teams in this league that aren't entirely blown away by Hamlet, as Hamlet have a naughty record against most of the mid to lower table teams. Kingstonian gave them a tough game here as they are in the top 4 and rivals.
One of Hamlet's players I follow on Twitter had this to say, "Knackered after today's game..Go again next week .. Passing teams off the pitch but need to be more clinical.. #dhfc" Which backs up what i say. Conditions after quite a bit of rain this week in South London are going to be poor which goes against Hamlet's style of passing on the deck. It has undone them before when they have been pegged back by more direct teams.
I do not know too much about how Hampton and Richmond Borough play but did see this in a report from their manager after their last game talking about the threat of Hamlet.
“They knock the ball around and I would pay good money to watch Erhun Otzumer every week, but we are not going to do anything special to counter them,” he said.
“It would be doing our players a disservice to say we are aiming to nullify them.”
Interesting, depends how they play to see if that is relevant to a direct style but their recent form of winning 4 and drawing 2 in their last 6 is good. Also the fact that in that run of games they beat Wealdstone away (2nd) and Kingstonian at home (3rd) 1-3 and 4-1 respectively showing that they probably have a finishing edge that Hamlet are lacking. Both of those teams Hamlet have lost to recently.
I think the price is probably wrong because the fact that Hamlet have a new keeper in probably isn't factored and they may have factored in Hamlet in 4th at home playing a 12th placed side too much into the price.
With the things I have considered and not trying to delve too deep I would say 19/10 is too good a price not to bet, would say it should be 6/4.
If you want to look at the form of both teams or any other stats, I think this is the best site online for the division.
http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/isthpremI realised as I got into this that I need to stop being so verbose with tips, I think I do it to try and show my working out to give it a huge amount of legitimacy because normally i have shown off to be a bit of an ice cream! But I want to change dammit! A tip of this length is not happening again, and annoyingly this has a chance of being postponed, so that would be another huge post rebuffed by the game not actually going ahead!
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