Tips for Tikay

[smashedagain]

England's odds are very mean as that is quite a big 4th innings run chase.

Definite value in the Windies here. I'm having £2.50 on them

Not if England get a solid start from their openers. Oh, wait......

Yeah disappointing from Strauss. Think he boked himself in an interview after his first innings tbh. Clearly frustrated at the questioning of his form over the winter he thought he may get a little relief for a while

Dogs being so profitable raises an eyebrow. Which of the sports you back do you think requires knowledge and skills and which do you find relies more on an element of luck?

[MereNovice]

In the IPL, Mumbai Indians play their next game on Wednesday.
They play Chennai Super Kings in the Eliminator match.
They must win that and their next two games to win the trophy.

[tikay]

In the IPL, Mumbai Indians play their next game on Wednesday.
They play Chennai Super Kings in the Eliminator match.
They must win that and their next two games to win the trophy.

Simple.

[Tal]

England's odds are very mean as that is quite a big 4th innings run chase.

Definite value in the Windies here. I'm having £2.50 on them

Not if England get a solid start from their openers. Oh, wait......

Yeah disappointing from Strauss. Think he boked himself in an interview after his first innings tbh. Clearly frustrated at the questioning of his form over the winter he thought he may get a little relief for a while

Dogs being so profitable raises an eyebrow. Which of the sports you back do you think requires knowledge and skills and which do you find relies more on an element of luck?

There is quite a lot of data available for betting on dogs. If you pick your spots, there will often be a race or two on a card that offers a bit of value. It just takes a bit of work. If you know trap 1 is a slow starter and traps 2 and 3 hug the rail, even if trap 1 has objectively faster times, he'll find it hard to get past. You don't get that kind of data in many other sports.

[MANTIS01]

What's coming up?

Not much really.

Today, just the last day of the first Test, & even a favourable result there will only be the first of 3 "legs".

Presumably, the Miami bet continues all week, as does the IPL Mumbai Indians affair.

For later this week, we have a football bet on Saturday (Huddersfield), and two Euriovision investment, Russia to win (EW), & a lay on Sweden. The crucial draw for ESC is tomorrow, we badly need a high (late) draw. If Russia get that, it's all over baby. A LOW draw will do nicely for our Sweden lay.   

What's coming up?

Not much really.

Well more than happy to fix the inaccuracy of this post. On Saturday we have the semi-final of The Voice where we aren't sweating random draws and such like. Last night we acquired confirmation of Vince Kidd's popularity with the voting public. And popularity is the key element in any talent competition where the winner is voted for rather than judged. Having the best voice is always a red herring and it's especially prevalent in this competition because the programme is actually called The Voice, so casual observers believe the best voice will win. But casual observers aren't inclined to pick up the phone and vote.

The further red herring is that the semi-final is made up of the public favourites and the judges second choices. Considering the most voted for act from each judge will be going through to the final I don't see any reason why we would see flip-flopping of the vote next week. So because we already know who commands the public vote we should already know the finalists. They will be Jazz Ellington, Ruth Brown, Bo Bruce, and Vince Kidd. Vince will be the outsider of the four even though he is the most popular. Work that out? Obviously a good barometer of an artist's following is the strength of their twitter following and the stats are as follows....

Vince Kidd - 76,078
Bo Bruce - 30,573
Ruth Brown - 24,110
Jazz Ellington - 384

Not only does vince have the most followers he has the fastest growing band of followers having added a further 11,000 this week. All aboard the Vince Kidd express choo choo. Don't forget he is already signed by Sony as a songwriter and has the strongest image and that two scoops of creativity. He is also the most natural performer. Yet he is still 10/1 compared to 9/4 for Ellington and a crazy 6/4 about Ruth Brown. Ruth is 6/4 even though she is mentored by out of touch Tom Jones and wears Pat Butcher's clothes. There is still value here kidds.

[smashedagain]

England's odds are very mean as that is quite a big 4th innings run chase.

Definite value in the Windies here. I'm having £2.50 on them

Not if England get a solid start from their openers. Oh, wait......

Yeah disappointing from Strauss. Think he boked himself in an interview after his first innings tbh. Clearly frustrated at the questioning of his form over the winter he thought he may get a little relief for a while

Dogs being so profitable raises an eyebrow. Which of the sports you back do you think requires knowledge and skills and which do you find relies more on an element of luck?

There is quite a lot of data available for betting on dogs. If you pick your spots, there will often be a race or two on a card that offers a bit of value. It just takes a bit of work. If you know trap 1 is a slow starter and traps 2 and 3 hug the rail, even if trap 1 has objectively faster times, he'll find it hard to get past. You don't get that kind of data in many other sports.

Yeah I appreciate this but for the dogs to be one of the mOst profitable and the horses to be least does seem a bit odd. Maybe it's a sample size issue but I would have expected it the other way round. Football showing a good profit and as its our national game the general standard of knowledge should be quite high and I would have thought we only have the odd knowledgable person with AFL and B/ball.

Really enjoying the thread tho especially the match play with the Posts from Hector. Sweating Russia this week too

[hector62]

in just over an hours time the rain delayed final of the Italian open tennis tournament is being played between Nadal and Djokovic. It is played on clay which is Nadals  favourite surface by far. His record against Djokovic on clay is P13 W11 L2. In the semifinal Nadal had a decent match against another good clay court player, Ferrer, with a tough first set and then an easy second set as Nadal got the better of him which sets him up nicely for this. There are only a couple more weeks left in the clay court season so Nadal will want to make the most of them before in all likelihood he starts to get beaten by Djokovic on the faster surfaces.

I would like to suggest £40 on Nadal at 8/11 with Coral.

[tikay]

MANTIS, if you were just a shade more persuasive - just one extra scoop of creativity, perhaps? - I'd bet a bit more on the Singing Dude. That's some job you have done on us. He might well win, too. He's still tosh, of course & you are still our Tosh Curry, but yes, he might win.

Are you a salesman in real life?

Tell you what. Shall we do an each-way double, Singing Dude, & Russian Grannies?

How neat it would be if we pulled that coup off. At least 4 scoops of creativity there.

[tikay]

Guys - be VERY careful in interpreting those stats. Sample size is key, & we don't have that.

We only have one sport with anything even remotely approaching a half-decent sample size - football.

[tikay]

in just over an hours time the rain delayed final of the Italian open tennis tournament is being played between Nadal and Djokovic. It is played on clay which is Nadals  favourite surface by far. His record against Djokovic on clay is P13 W11 L2. In the semifinal Nadal had a decent match against another good clay court player, Ferrer, with a tough first set and then an easy second set as Nadal got the better of him which sets him up nicely for this. There are only a couple more weeks left in the clay court season so Nadal will want to make the most of them before in all likelihood he starts to get beaten by Djokovic on the faster surfaces.

I would like to suggest £40 on Nadal at 8/11 with Coral.

How can we refuse, after the Colsaerts coup, & all those lovely stories?

Does he read Agatha Christie?

I've upped it - for ease of maths - to £55 @ 8/11, with Corals. Thanks.

ON

Single(s) - Win Receipt No.: 27799156 
Rafael Nadal v Novak Djokovic - Match Head to Head 
Rafael Nadal @ 8/11 
 
Stake: £55.00 (£55.00 x 1 line) 
Estimated Returns: £ 95.15 
 
Total Stake: £55.00 
Total Potential Return: £95.00 

[MANTIS01]

MANTIS, if you were just a shade more persuasive - just one extra scoop of creativity, perhaps? - I'd bet a bit more on the Singing Dude. That's some job you have done on us. He might well win, too. He's still tosh, of course & you are still our Tosh Curry, but yes, he might win.

Are you a salesman in real life?

Tell you what. Shall we do an each-way double, Singing Dude, & Russian Grannies?

How neat it would be if we pulled that coup off. At least 4 scoops of creativity there.

I would like to thank YOU for being persuasive my friend. After the 25/1 rubs last week I piled into it for a third time and got 22/1 on Betfair. Feel bad laying him thou

I don't mind being known as the Tosh Curry, especially if it's an extra hot one

[horseplayer]

agreed sample size is still nowere near good enough

for example two horses that have been put up have been beaten a combined neck if they had both won that would be showing profit.

[TightEnd]

Nervous cricket correspondent

Might be tempted in a £15 WI at 4-1 today to part-hedge the thread risk, but I am not allowed

As horseplayer has said, the WI are a determined lot compared to previous incarnations


Eng should win, but could be a classic day.

[tikay]

Nervous cricket correspondent

Might be tempted in a £15 WI at 4-1 today to part-hedge the thread risk, but I am not allowed

As horseplayer has said, the WI are a determined lot compared to previous incarnations


Eng should win, but could be a classic day.

I'm not allowed, either. Keith shouts at us.

Not allowed "on-thread", not at all.

[smashedagain]

Guys - be VERY careful in interpreting those stats. Sample size is key, & we don't have that.

We only have one sport with anything even remotely approaching a half-decent sample size - football.

I thought this maybe the case. I admit I have no clue about picking winners but love the thought process especially when it's something that is plain obvious. Phil Taylor's opponents averages increase when they play him because they don't get to throw at many doubles springs to mind.