Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

1-0 England

Onto Trent Bridge for the second test Friday.


West Indies are a better team than previously, but lack batting and bowling depth. Chanderpaul and Roach though top players.

Will be a scrap to get 3-0 thats for sure, but its on course.

[tikay]

1-0 England

Onto Trent Bridge for the second test Friday.


West Indies are a better team than previously, but lack batting and bowling depth. Chanderpaul and Roach though top players.

Will be a scrap to get 3-0 thats for sure, but its on course.

Yup, well done Rich, though we wobbled a bit yesterday.

Chanderpaul impressed immensely, Samuels too.

Maybe we can get a decent price on either being top WI batsman @ Trent Bridge?

[TightEnd]

Not Samuels, flaky technique and it should swing at Trenters.

Chanderpaul again, prices permitting Friday morning

[tikay]

Not Samuels, flaky technique and it should swing at Trenters.

Chanderpaul again, prices permitting Friday morning

Ooh, proper Blowers speak - Trenters.

Thewy's house almost backs onto Trenters, by the bye. Fascinating.

[JaffaCake]

Stuart Broad became only the third player to earn a place on all three honours boards at Lord's in the first Test, adding a 10 wicket match to his previous five-fer in this match (among others presumably) and a Test century there....some performance that

[the sicilian]

Guys - be VERY careful in interpreting those stats. Sample size is key, & we don't have that.

We only have one sport with anything even remotely approaching a half-decent sample size - football.

I thought this maybe the case. I admit I have no clue about picking winners but love the thought process especially when it's something that is plain obvious. Phil Taylor's opponents averages increase when they play him because they don't get to throw at many doubles springs to mind.

Yeah one thing to bear in mind is that getting a representative sample size is going to be different in every sport too.  In golf and horseracing you could easily have 200 bets and still not be anywhere close to having a proper idea about how profitable you are whether you are winning or losing.  On sports like football, basketball and NFL after a hundred bets you have an idea.  In the short and medium term the best guide is not your profit and loss but the difference between the price you take and the closing show on betfair.  If you are consistently taking a price that is bigger than the closing show then you will win in the long run.

Agree entirely.

Golf was way bottom a week ago, for example, but it's high-variance stuff, one winner can change everything, so I was not troubled by that. Sample size is woeful, too.

I like that idea whereby we measure against the closing price on Betfair, but have no idea how we would do that, time constraints & all that.

I half wish I had not published the stats now, I would not wish them to be mis-interpreted, but equally, they fascinate me.

The ROI stats are completely different, by the way, but again, suffer from woefully inadequate sample size.

I really like, though, the ongoing process of self-examination, to see what can be learned. Basketball, for instance, bothers me a lot. I think you said last week we need a 55% success rate, or somesuch, & I would be very surprised if we could beat that by much, if at all. In fact I'd go further - in Basketball, using handicaps, I reckon we'd be as likely to succeed if we simply flipped a coin on the outcome each time, heads or tails, & bet accordingly. This is NOT a pop at our basketbally corry's, I'm just thinking out loud. And very probably talking out of a rear orifice.

NBA very difficult..

I'll be honest I was at the point of headbanging frustration with the NBA...... iv'e been doing ok the last couple of weeks and actually turning the tide and making a profit..the San Antonio seemed standout thats why i put it forward and was confident of it..they came through night one along with another and we had a good night on the hoops for a change...with the San Antonio series I think the price was there obv last night they come good which would have made the bet even..the clippers came nowhere near expectation and was probably a series too far for them but the way they shot the other night after exploading from the off was unforgivable... tonight's two games are very hard to call..the only one I have is the Lakers game over 189 which is nitty.... Miami's big two swung back into action last night with a great performance but I still like our bet even if they manage to get through the conference which they are expected to.. i have an unpopular winner of the conference  in the Celtics but its a gut thing rather than any plausible analysis but i have backed it with my own hard earned so call me romantic if you like..we will see.

 San Antonio look pretty unstoppable at the moment which is good for all of us as we all have them for the championship and Miami on the lay..so we may actually get out of this yet..

[mondatoo]

Stuart Broad became only the third player to earn a place on all three honours boards at Lord's in the first Test, adding a 10 wicket match to his previous five-fer in this match (among others presumably) and a Test century there....some performance that

Pretty sure I posted it in a cricket thread at the time but couldn't believe not so long ago there was talk of him being dropped from the side. Fantastic cricketer.

[tikay]

Stuart Broad became only the third player to earn a place on all three honours boards at Lord's in the first Test, adding a 10 wicket match to his previous five-fer in this match (among others presumably) and a Test century there....some performance that

Yes, amazing stuff. He has a very proud Dad, too. And a mouse, if I recall correctly.

 

[Karabiner]

Did you have a max-bet selling facebook short Tony as you advocated a couple of days ago?

[tikay]

Did you have a max-bet selling facebook short Tony as you advocated a couple of days ago?

No, not figured the best way to do it, to be honest Ralph, & I'd have to be prepared to wait a while if I did, it might take a while, & I'm a little short of time.

I figured that "Put" options might be the way, but I imagine these days there are better ways, spread indexes & the like.

redarmi put a thread up about it, you know, in case you missed it, it's here......

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=57826.0

[Karabiner]

Did you have a max-bet selling facebook short Tony as you advocated a couple of days ago?

No, not figured the best way to do it, to be honest Ralph, & I'd have to be prepared to wait a while if I did, it might take a while, & I'm a little short of time.

I figured that "Put" options might be the way, but I imagine these days there are better ways, spread indexes & the like.

redarmi put a thread up about it, you know, in case you missed it, it's here......

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=57826.0

Closed @ $32 today from a high of $42 yesterday.

[tikay]

Did you have a max-bet selling facebook short Tony as you advocated a couple of days ago?

No, not figured the best way to do it, to be honest Ralph, & I'd have to be prepared to wait a while if I did, it might take a while, & I'm a little short of time.

I figured that "Put" options might be the way, but I imagine these days there are better ways, spread indexes & the like.

redarmi put a thread up about it, you know, in case you missed it, it's here......

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=57826.0

Closed @ $32 today from a high of $42 yesterday.

Really? Oh my. I never expected it to bomb quite that quickly!

As with punting, if you miss the best price, the fun is gone. Damn.

[Teacake]

AFL

Stan James look to have priced up Adelaide and Collingwood wrong this Saturday, they have Adelaide 5/4 and Collingwood 4/7, it should be the other way round. Not sure how you feel about backing that on the thread but thought I'd put it out there. 

[tikay]

AFL

Stan James look to have priced up Adelaide and Collingwood wrong this Saturday, they have Adelaide 5/4 and Collingwood 4/7, it should be the other way round. Not sure how you feel about backing that on the thread but thought I'd put it out there. 

In like a shot, thanks!

We have £40 @ 5/4, Adelaide, with Stan James.

ON
 
£40.00 Single
  Selection Price
Adelaide Crows v Collingwood Magpies : Match Betting Adelaide Crows 5/4
Total stake £40.00
Estimated return £90.00

Full stake £ 40.00
Full Estimated return £ 90.00

[tikay]

AFL

Stan James look to have priced up Adelaide and Collingwood wrong this Saturday, they have Adelaide 5/4 and Collingwood 4/7, it should be the other way round. Not sure how you feel about backing that on the thread but thought I'd put it out there. 

Had chance to have a proper look now, & have had ANOTHER £80, also with Stan James.

ON

£80.00 Single
  Selection Price
Adelaide Crows v Collingwood Magpies : Match Betting Adelaide Crows 5/4
Total stake £80.00
Estimated return £180.00

Full stake £ 80.00
Full Estimated return £ 180.00