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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 16451424 times)
Ant040689
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66780 on:
January 27, 2014, 12:21:59 PM »
Annoying.
I wrote a pretty big piece on why i thought Pulis was value at 40/1 to be the next prem manager to leave, but only just realised that the markets for it end after the last game of this season. For my bet to succeed I was hoping I was given more time, inclusive of the summer as I think he could go then and I am not entirely convinced any other manager is going to be sacked in the prem this season.
Which actually alerted me to the 4/1 for no manager to leave option.
I think it is too tight at the bottom for any chairman to be confident in sacking their manager, and as the games go by the notion of sacking their manager becomes less and less of an allure as they look to ride it out until the summer. Perhaps thinking that any manager brought in so late will be hard pressed to turn their fortunes around and in any case that club may be only 2 or three wins away from escaping trouble.
If anyone has stats on what dates managers have been sacked in the past? Were there that many into February/March/April? And with the closeness at the bottom perhaps you can presume, with slight discomfort, a sacking won't happen in February? If Palace/Cardiff/Fulham are any of the teams to be cut adrift at the bottom, with their recent manager changes it is unlikely they get sacked before the end of the season.
Which leaves Hughton/Allardyce/Laudrup really. Allardyce might actually be safe, even though I know Fred's position, until the summer because his squad is depleted and he could always argue it was that rather than him that caused problems. With Hughton, Norwich are five points clear and I just don't see him going.
Laudrup is the real worry, they are dreadfully under performing from last season but perhaps with Bony starting to reek havoc their fortunes will change and they will be fine.
This isn't a tip for the no manager to leave at 4/1 per se, but I would like to prod a discussion on it.
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tikay
Administrator
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66781 on:
January 27, 2014, 12:25:26 PM »
Quote from: Ant040689 on January 27, 2014, 12:21:59 PM
Annoying.
I wrote a pretty big piece on why i thought Pulis was value at 40/1 to be the next prem manager to leave, but only just realised that the markets for it end after the last game of this season. For my bet to succeed I was hoping I was given more time, inclusive of the summer as I think he could go then and I am not entirely convinced any other manager is going to be sacked in the prem this season.
Which actually alerted me to the 4/1 for no manager to leave option.
I think it is too tight at the bottom for any chairman to be confident in sacking their manager, and as the games go by the notion of sacking their manager becomes less and less of an allure as they look to ride it out until the summer. Perhaps thinking that any manager brought in so late will be hard pressed to turn their fortunes around and in any case that club may be only 2 or three wins away from escaping trouble.
If anyone has stats on what dates managers have been sacked in the past? Were there that many into February/March/April? And with the closeness at the bottom perhaps you can presume, with slight discomfort, a sacking won't happen in February? If Palace/Cardiff/Fulham are any of the teams to be cut adrift at the bottom, with their recent manager changes it is unlikely they get sacked before the end of the season.
Which leaves Hughton/Allardyce/Laudrup really. Allardyce might actually be safe, even though I know Fred's position, until the summer because his squad is depleted and he could always argue it was that rather than him that caused problems. With Hughton, Norwich are five points clear and I just don't see him going.
Laudrup is the real worry, they are dreadfully under performing from last season but perhaps with Bony starting to reek havoc their fortunes will change and they will be fine.
This isn't a tip for the no manager to leave at 4/1 per se, but I would like to prod a discussion on it.
For what it is worth, Ant, most punters are severely restricted on these Markets, & I've never been able to get more than £25 on.
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TightEnd
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66782 on:
January 27, 2014, 12:26:45 PM »
You can do this very easily yourself Ant
http://www.thesackrace.com/list-of-premier-league-managerial-moves-by-season
2 went last season Feb-end season
5 the year before that
3 the year before that
and so on
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Ant040689
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66783 on:
January 27, 2014, 12:27:53 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on January 27, 2014, 12:26:45 PM
You can do this very easily yourself Ant
http://www.thesackrace.com/list-of-premier-league-managerial-moves-by-season
2 went last season Feb-end season
5 the year before that
3 the year before that
and so on
Ah ty, wasn't aware of the site, cheers.
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horseplayer
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Posts: 10314
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66784 on:
January 27, 2014, 12:29:32 PM »
ML to leave first please
As stated in original post a big factor in that is he seems very likely to leave end of season unless they win the europa/storm up the league
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66785 on:
January 27, 2014, 12:30:42 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on January 27, 2014, 12:26:45 PM
You can do this very easily yourself Ant
http://www.thesackrace.com/list-of-premier-league-managerial-moves-by-season
2 went last season Feb-end season
5 the year before that
3 the year before that
and so on
Thats quite a high %.
20 Teams, & in those 3 seasons, 3 of the Managers were effectively unsackable - SAF, SAW, & David Moyes - so that makes the % even higher.
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RickBFA
Hero Member
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Posts: 1932
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66786 on:
January 27, 2014, 12:55:26 PM »
Wickham (8 goals in 10 games) has just been recalled by Sunderland from Wednesday. Big, big loss for us.
Wednesday play relegation rivals Millwall away tomorrow night.
Very tempted to back Millwall - I have a horrible feeling Holloway will have Millwall really up for the game.
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The Camel
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Posts: 17075
Under my tree, being a troll.
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66787 on:
January 27, 2014, 01:11:26 PM »
Quote from: exstream on January 27, 2014, 12:11:23 PM
Still don't get it
Newcastle sign bent.
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horseplayer
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66788 on:
January 27, 2014, 01:21:19 PM »
It was not that funny or good tbf but not sure how you couldn't get it!
Anyway in further news
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/bowls/25909047
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Omm
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Posts: 3228
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66789 on:
January 27, 2014, 01:34:51 PM »
Quote from: Omm on January 07, 2014, 11:48:36 AM
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-manager-to-leave-post
The 33-1 with Sky is a crazy price? Isn't it? If Sam doesn't go who does before end of season?
Ant, i put this up at the first week of Jan, i was keen to lump on the 33-1 no manager to leave. Not sure i would be doing it at 4-1.
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The Camel
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Under my tree, being a troll.
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66790 on:
January 27, 2014, 01:39:48 PM »
Quote from: horseplayer on January 27, 2014, 01:21:19 PM
It was not that funny or good tbf but not sure how you couldn't get it!
Anyway in further news
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/bowls/25909047
Best singing performance by an actor since:
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22634
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66791 on:
January 27, 2014, 01:47:21 PM »
Quote from: horseplayer on January 27, 2014, 01:21:19 PM
It was not that funny or good tbf but not sure how you couldn't get it!
Anyway in further news
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/bowls/25909047
Go on Bar
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Ant040689
Probation
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Posts: 0
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66792 on:
January 27, 2014, 01:51:12 PM »
Quote from: Omm on January 27, 2014, 01:34:51 PM
Quote from: Omm on January 07, 2014, 11:48:36 AM
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-manager-to-leave-post
The 33-1 with Sky is a crazy price? Isn't it? If Sam doesn't go who does before end of season?
Ant, i put this up at the first week of Jan, i was keen to lump on the 33-1 no manager to leave. Not sure i would be doing it at 4-1.
Fair play, cheers.
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scotty2hatty
Gamesmaster
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Posts: 9178
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66793 on:
January 27, 2014, 02:10:17 PM »
Quote from: horseplayer on January 27, 2014, 01:21:19 PM
It was not that funny or good tbf but not sure how you couldn't get it!
Anyway in further news
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/bowls/25909047
Haha horsey, I knew the joke yet still couldn't remember the actual punchline you meant. Camel sorted it though.
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Marky147
Hero Member
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Posts: 22634
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #66794 on:
January 27, 2014, 02:27:22 PM »
Quote from: Omm on January 27, 2014, 01:34:51 PM
Quote from: Omm on January 07, 2014, 11:48:36 AM
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-manager-to-leave-post
The 33-1 with Sky is a crazy price? Isn't it? If Sam doesn't go who does before end of season?
Ant, i put this up at the first week of Jan, i was keen to lump on the 33-1 no manager to leave. Not sure i would be doing it at 4-1.
I couldn't remember if that was you, or Kmac who put that up when I was thinking about it the other day.
Looking like a big slice of value pie given how quick that it's shortened up, and there being so long left in the season.
Good luck if you're on, and I hope it gets weighed in*
*if Allardyce doesn't get jogged this week
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