Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

Annoying.

I wrote a pretty big piece on why i thought Pulis was value at 40/1 to be the next prem manager to leave, but only just realised that the markets for it end after the last game of this season. For my bet to succeed I was hoping I was given more time, inclusive of the summer as I think he could go then and I am not entirely convinced any other manager is going to be sacked in the prem this season.

Which actually alerted me to the 4/1 for no manager to leave option.

I think it is too tight at the bottom for any chairman to be confident in sacking their manager, and as the games go by the notion of sacking their manager becomes less and less of an allure as they look to ride it out until the summer. Perhaps thinking that any manager brought in so late will be hard pressed to turn their fortunes around and in any case that club may be only 2 or three wins away from escaping trouble.

If anyone has stats on what dates managers have been sacked in the past? Were there that many into February/March/April? And with the closeness at the bottom perhaps you can presume, with slight discomfort, a sacking won't happen in February? If Palace/Cardiff/Fulham are any of the teams to be cut adrift at the bottom, with their recent manager changes it is unlikely they get sacked before the end of the season.

Which leaves Hughton/Allardyce/Laudrup really. Allardyce might actually be safe, even though I know Fred's position, until the summer because his squad is depleted and he could always argue it was that rather than him that caused problems. With Hughton, Norwich are five points clear and I just don't see him going.

Laudrup is the real worry, they are dreadfully under performing from last season but perhaps with Bony starting to reek havoc their fortunes will change and they will be fine.

This isn't a tip for the no manager to leave at 4/1 per se, but I would like to prod a discussion on it.

[tikay]

Annoying.

I wrote a pretty big piece on why i thought Pulis was value at 40/1 to be the next prem manager to leave, but only just realised that the markets for it end after the last game of this season. For my bet to succeed I was hoping I was given more time, inclusive of the summer as I think he could go then and I am not entirely convinced any other manager is going to be sacked in the prem this season.

Which actually alerted me to the 4/1 for no manager to leave option.

I think it is too tight at the bottom for any chairman to be confident in sacking their manager, and as the games go by the notion of sacking their manager becomes less and less of an allure as they look to ride it out until the summer. Perhaps thinking that any manager brought in so late will be hard pressed to turn their fortunes around and in any case that club may be only 2 or three wins away from escaping trouble.

If anyone has stats on what dates managers have been sacked in the past? Were there that many into February/March/April? And with the closeness at the bottom perhaps you can presume, with slight discomfort, a sacking won't happen in February? If Palace/Cardiff/Fulham are any of the teams to be cut adrift at the bottom, with their recent manager changes it is unlikely they get sacked before the end of the season.

Which leaves Hughton/Allardyce/Laudrup really. Allardyce might actually be safe, even though I know Fred's position, until the summer because his squad is depleted and he could always argue it was that rather than him that caused problems. With Hughton, Norwich are five points clear and I just don't see him going.

Laudrup is the real worry, they are dreadfully under performing from last season but perhaps with Bony starting to reek havoc their fortunes will change and they will be fine.

This isn't a tip for the no manager to leave at 4/1 per se, but I would like to prod a discussion on it.

For what it is worth, Ant, most punters are severely restricted on these Markets, & I've never been able to get more than £25 on.

[TightEnd]

You can do this very easily yourself Ant

http://www.thesackrace.com/list-of-premier-league-managerial-moves-by-season

2 went last season Feb-end season

5 the year before that

3 the year before that

and so on

[Ant040689]

You can do this very easily yourself Ant

http://www.thesackrace.com/list-of-premier-league-managerial-moves-by-season

2 went last season Feb-end season

5 the year before that

3 the year before that

and so on

Ah ty, wasn't aware of the site, cheers.

[horseplayer]

ML to leave first please

As stated in original post a big factor in that is he seems very likely to leave end of season unless they win the europa/storm up the league

[tikay]

You can do this very easily yourself Ant

http://www.thesackrace.com/list-of-premier-league-managerial-moves-by-season

2 went last season Feb-end season

5 the year before that

3 the year before that

and so on

Thats quite a high %.

20 Teams, & in those 3 seasons, 3 of the Managers were effectively unsackable - SAF, SAW, & David Moyes - so that makes the % even higher.

[RickBFA]

Wickham (8 goals in 10 games) has just been recalled by Sunderland from Wednesday. Big, big loss for us.

Wednesday play relegation rivals Millwall away tomorrow night.

Very tempted to back Millwall - I have a horrible feeling Holloway will have Millwall really up for the game.

[The Camel]

Still don't get it

Newcastle sign bent.

[horseplayer]

It was not that funny or good tbf but not sure how you couldn't get it!

Anyway in further news

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/bowls/25909047

[Omm]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-manager-to-leave-post

The 33-1 with Sky is a crazy price? Isn't it? If Sam doesn't go who does before end of season?

Ant, i put this up at the first week of Jan, i was keen to lump on the 33-1 no manager to leave. Not sure i would be doing it at 4-1.

[The Camel]

It was not that funny or good tbf but not sure how you couldn't get it!

Anyway in further news

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/bowls/25909047

Best singing performance by an actor since:

[Marky147]

It was not that funny or good tbf but not sure how you couldn't get it!

Anyway in further news

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/bowls/25909047

Go on Bar

[Ant040689]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-manager-to-leave-post

The 33-1 with Sky is a crazy price? Isn't it? If Sam doesn't go who does before end of season?

Ant, i put this up at the first week of Jan, i was keen to lump on the 33-1 no manager to leave. Not sure i would be doing it at 4-1.

Fair play, cheers.

[scotty2hatty]

It was not that funny or good tbf but not sure how you couldn't get it!

Anyway in further news

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/bowls/25909047

Haha horsey, I knew the joke yet still couldn't remember the actual punchline you meant. Camel sorted it though.

[Marky147]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-manager-to-leave-post

The 33-1 with Sky is a crazy price? Isn't it? If Sam doesn't go who does before end of season?

Ant, i put this up at the first week of Jan, i was keen to lump on the 33-1 no manager to leave. Not sure i would be doing it at 4-1.

I couldn't remember if that was you, or Kmac who put that up when I was thinking about it the other day.

Looking like a big slice of value pie given how quick that it's shortened up, and there being so long left in the season.

Good luck if you're on, and I hope it gets weighed in*

*if Allardyce doesn't get jogged this week