Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Testing

[tikay]

Tighty,

I seem to recall there was a Super                       Bowl Field Goals Recommend, but I can't recall what it was, or whether Fred got on.

Can you link me to it, please?

IGNORE that, you replied yesterday, & we decided we'd leave it, as we missed the Market.

[tikay]

We have TWO bets on "Forward to score First Try for England v France".

For those who don't follow RU closely, which players/shirt numbers are the Forwards?

I know - obv - but I'm thinking about our less-informed readers. 

[tikay]

Rory starts Bogey-Birdie-Eagle, to resume at the head of affairs.

[tikay]

Another one for tomorrow

It's quite easy to think that "Everton just lost badly and Villa won so..." but bear with me

Everton have injury problems. Coleman, Distin, Traore, Gibson, Kone, Deulofeu and Oviedo and now Lukaku.

I think the absence of Coleman and Distin affected them badly at Anfield. This season they've sent their full backs up a lot and relied on the ability of Baines and Coleman to recover. On Wednesday and with their back five disrupted for the first time this season they played a very high line in defence, were caught out repeatedly by balls in behind. Sturridge scored having been put through, Suarez scored from a ball played to him in his own half etcetc

Tomorrow they face Villa who are a very good counter-attacking side away from home. Won four and draw four of their 11 Premier League away games. Exactly the argument I made before their trip to Liverpool.

So we see a team recovering from injuries, notably Benteke's form (one pen, two flick on assiSts in midweek) against a side disrupted at the back and now missing Lukaku?

Just seems the match up is perfectly set up for Villa's style. I would expect Martinez to get the Everton full backs to sit more, but they are farl ess of an atacking threat when they do

Everton are 4/7?

and we get Aston Villa at 6/1 outright or 9/2 Draw no Bet?

Yes please

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/everton-v-aston-villa/draw-no-bet   

This looks tempting.

We can still get 6/1 Villa, &/or 4/1 DNB.

Bet size suggestions please, & should we go WIN or DNB?

Anyone?

[MereNovice]

We have TWO bets on "Forward to score First Try for England v France".

For those who don't follow RU closely, which players/shirt numbers are the Forwards?

I know - obv - but I'm thinking about our less-informed readers. 

I would think that it is only forwards that start the match that count for the bet and therefore the magic numbers are 1 to 8.
Thy are easily spotted as they are generally the less good looking ones.

[tikay]

I backed Northampton earlier today at 7/2 - they play Cheltenham away tomorrow.

New manager, Chris Wilder and 3 new signings including Ricky Ravenhill from Bradford.

I should have put it up earlier they are 16/5 now.

What you think Tighty?

Thanks Rick.

Quite like to have taken this, but best available to Fred now is 3/1.

Still value, or have I left it too late? (Slightly better is available, but not to me).

[tikay]

Doobs do you think Anthea Turner is big at 33/1 in The Jump?

Probably.  I did a bit of reading before, and isn't She an experienced skier?  Not backed her and not got time to do any research now.  She doesn't seem the type to be competitive tho.  Don't think it can be terrible.  I might bung a fiver on.  Cheers

Just back, just found out she has a ski chalet.  Telegraph man puts her 2nd in the girls.  Doesn't suggest snowplough turns to me.  Upped it to £20. 

Thread Banzai probably good.  Get on the phone Tikay before 8 33/1 in a few places.

Anthea top woman 14-1 with Hills. Can't find details on how someone becomes the champion/winner if the boys and girls are doing different things each night. Anyone know?

I know Fred is not on, but just in case anyone else followed this Anthea is the last women standing after Kimberly going out tonight so 14-1 is weighed in.

Wow, well noted Omm.

If Fred is not on, that is an Admin error on my part. I need to go back in the thread, but Joe Beeevers & Doobs discussed it, & Doobs urged me to take a fiver @ 33/1.

I've just checked, & I placed TWO bets, 1 minute apart, on January 27th, (ties in with timings above) with Wm Hill, see.....

27 Jan 14 / 19:18  Single 1   The Jump 2014 - Top Female  –  Top Female Anthea Turner @ 14/1 – £5.00 O/0457483/0000808/F
27 Jan 14 / 19:17  Single 1   The Jump 2014 - Outright  –  Outright Anthea Turner @ 33/1 – £5.00 O/0457483/0000807/F

You know me, no way on God's earth would I be backing Novelty Shite Off-Thread, I can't abide it, so I clearly intended them for Fred, but must have forgotten to confirm.

Makes no difference to me personally, but it's too late to allow Fred to have them now, CO Doobs & Mere would be seriously grumpy about it, but it's a tad annoying, that's at least twice this has happened in January, & would deffo have helped with the numbers.

Anyway, great bets, whoever suggested them, thank you.

these should definitely be on thread's ledger

No way you'd have done it for off thread japes is there?! Hardly.

Just a consequence of getting behind on the admin.

Not sure who is the final call on this, but thats my vote

I'm going to have the final say on this.

As clear as it seems that the intent was for the bets to be for Fred, they shouldn't be allowed at this late stage. It would set a bad precedent.
Whilst we all might agree that tikay would not normally speculate on markets such as these for his personal account, issues might not be so clear in the future on different bets and we should avoid any future difficulties by drawing a clear line now.

To confirm, these bets should not be included for Fred.

Have to agree. The intent is clear, but we can't start backdating bets after they win, it is very important that our numbers stand up to scrutiny, and we don't fudge the lines.

Shame really, but completely right.

I just remembered, I did once back a Novelty Shite bet on my own account, but that was a rare exception, I deeply researched the "Who will appear in CBB?" market, and identified Jim the Racist, I even passed it on to Chompy.

I am with Mere on this.  

You are more likely to be prompted to check if you have backed a winner, as people tend to brag about them.  It isn't nearly as likely someone is going to prompt you to check if you backed a loser.  

Yes, another reason why we need to be strict on these things, there'd be plenty of losers, & they'd be quietly swept under the carpet.

[tikay]

Lets keep up to date on admin then. I sense it was a very tough week in tikay towers juggling a heavy schedule

One of those things.

Yes, the nut worst week for me, what with 4 Shows in 8 days, UKPC work @ peak-load, & some personal issues.

Let's see how the next week goes, but I may acceopt the kind offer you made by PM, (twice) to which I have yet to reply (twice...).

Anyway, proper day off today, then back to work tomorrow.   

[tikay]

May be a tough job counting the Omahas. Alright in a home game when they all stay respectfully silent while the offence plays. This will not be the case Sunday.

 I remember we had an office junior watch the cup final about 8 times to count the throw-ins when we were the 1st spread firm to do that one and a punter kept complaining that we were wrong. Fuck his life. 

I'm still sure that I was right and you owe me 10p.

Excellent - riposte of the week.

Good to have you back, Mr Mere.

[tikay]

Two Hills mobile £25s tomorrow.

15.20 Wetherby Shutthefrontdoor 13/8.  Currently beating Betfair, so guess it isn't there in the morning, but maths is forgiving if you have to take lower.

and my old favourite.

14.05 Saphir du Rhea 7/4 at Ffos Las.  You can also get that at 2/1 with best odds guarantee in a few places.  Given it is 3/3.1 on Betfair it doesn't look so bad either, but probably not for thread. 

How forgiving are the Maths?

Shutthefrontdoor currently 5/4 on Wm Hill Mobile, 2.4 on Betty.

Saphir du Rhea currently 2/1 Wm Hill Mobile, 3.1 Betfair.


Yes no to either/both, please?

[Doobs]

Two Hills mobile £25s tomorrow.

15.20 Wetherby Shutthefrontdoor 13/8.  Currently beating Betfair, so guess it isn't there in the morning, but maths is forgiving if you have to take lower.

and my old favourite.

14.05 Saphir du Rhea 7/4 at Ffos Las.  You can also get that at 2/1 with best odds guarantee in a few places.  Given it is 3/3.1 on Betfair it doesn't look so bad either, but probably not for thread. 

How forgiving are the Maths?

Shutthefrontdoor currently 5/4 on Wm Hill Mobile, 2.4 on Betty.

Saphir du Rhea currently 2/1 Wm Hill Mobile, 3.1 Betfair.


Yes no to either/both, please?

Both is good, even with 5/4, the free bet makes it better than Betfair.

[BigAdz]

Another one for tomorrow

It's quite easy to think that "Everton just lost badly and Villa won so..." but bear with me

Everton have injury problems. Coleman, Distin, Traore, Gibson, Kone, Deulofeu and Oviedo and now Lukaku.

I think the absence of Coleman and Distin affected them badly at Anfield. This season they've sent their full backs up a lot and relied on the ability of Baines and Coleman to recover. On Wednesday and with their back five disrupted for the first time this season they played a very high line in defence, were caught out repeatedly by balls in behind. Sturridge scored having been put through, Suarez scored from a ball played to him in his own half etcetc

Tomorrow they face Villa who are a very good counter-attacking side away from home. Won four and draw four of their 11 Premier League away games. Exactly the argument I made before their trip to Liverpool.

So we see a team recovering from injuries, notably Benteke's form (one pen, two flick on assiSts in midweek) against a side disrupted at the back and now missing Lukaku?

Just seems the match up is perfectly set up for Villa's style. I would expect Martinez to get the Everton full backs to sit more, but they are farl ess of an atacking threat when they do

Everton are 4/7?

and we get Aston Villa at 6/1 outright or 9/2 Draw no Bet?

Yes please

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/everton-v-aston-villa/draw-no-bet   

This looks tempting.

We can still get 6/1 Villa, &/or 4/1 DNB.

Bet size suggestions please, & should we go WIN or DNB?

Anyone?

I can see logic in this and the Sunderland bet to the effect I have the free £25 treble on Sunderland/Villa and Arsenal.

Much as I love Ants posts, his latest about beating the Arse is absolutely ridic.

[tikay]

For Sunday's Palace game despite the 4 new signings and in particular the goal threat in Tom Ince, Palace haven't moved down from 16/1 with two firms, with BettyFred and Toteysport remaining.

They were 16/1 on Thursday at best so these two firms haven't reacted.

Palace will park the bus and when Fulham did in the last home match they found it tough to break through until some Cazorla magic. Perhaps Palace are better versed in parking the bus and with Ince in have two goalscoring wingers to break with. Worth a longshot flutter imo. And remember all I have done is bring you Palace value all season

Most are settling at 14/1 and suggest that is all that will be left by kick off.

Suggest a fiver.

Thanks Ant.

"homer" bets are easily the most difficult for me to judge, especially as I claim no particular knowledge of Football, & more so because 90% of your suggestions are about Palace.

We can still get 16/1, & for a fiver, it won't do any great harm, but it really is awkward for me to deal with these things, as I'm sure it is obvious.

I'm happy to get on, a fun fiver does no great harm, but the whole process when it involves homers is awkward & so, ideally, we'd need some warmth from others, just as a means of establishing a protocol.

The advantage of homers (we have a few on Fred) is that they know better than most their own team.

The disadvantage is the myopia.

To repeat, a fiver will do no harm, but I'd just like to better establish how to deal with homer bets.

[tikay]

Another one for tomorrow

It's quite easy to think that "Everton just lost badly and Villa won so..." but bear with me

Everton have injury problems. Coleman, Distin, Traore, Gibson, Kone, Deulofeu and Oviedo and now Lukaku.

I think the absence of Coleman and Distin affected them badly at Anfield. This season they've sent their full backs up a lot and relied on the ability of Baines and Coleman to recover. On Wednesday and with their back five disrupted for the first time this season they played a very high line in defence, were caught out repeatedly by balls in behind. Sturridge scored having been put through, Suarez scored from a ball played to him in his own half etcetc

Tomorrow they face Villa who are a very good counter-attacking side away from home. Won four and draw four of their 11 Premier League away games. Exactly the argument I made before their trip to Liverpool.

So we see a team recovering from injuries, notably Benteke's form (one pen, two flick on assiSts in midweek) against a side disrupted at the back and now missing Lukaku?

Just seems the match up is perfectly set up for Villa's style. I would expect Martinez to get the Everton full backs to sit more, but they are farl ess of an atacking threat when they do

Everton are 4/7?

and we get Aston Villa at 6/1 outright or 9/2 Draw no Bet?

Yes please

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/everton-v-aston-villa/draw-no-bet   

This looks tempting.

We can still get 6/1 Villa, &/or 4/1 DNB.

Bet size suggestions please, & should we go WIN or DNB?

Anyone?

I can see logic in this and the Sunderland bet to the effect I have the free £25 treble on Sunderland/Villa and Arsenal.

Much as I love Ants posts, his latest about beating the Arse is absolutely ridic.

Ha! Spooky timing, I just replied to Ant as it happens.

And here we have the nut homer situation - homer v homer.

Love these mini-dilemmas, all great fun.

Either way, Chirp Alert can be expected @ around 6pm Sunday.