Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Two Hills mobile £25s tomorrow.

15.20 Wetherby Shutthefrontdoor 13/8.  Currently beating Betfair, so guess it isn't there in the morning, but maths is forgiving if you have to take lower.

and my old favourite.

14.05 Saphir du Rhea 7/4 at Ffos Las.  You can also get that at 2/1 with best odds guarantee in a few places.  Given it is 3/3.1 on Betfair it doesn't look so bad either, but probably not for thread. 

How forgiving are the Maths?

Shutthefrontdoor currently 5/4 on Wm Hill Mobile, 2.4 on Betty.

Saphir du Rhea currently 2/1 Wm Hill Mobile, 3.1 Betfair.


Yes no to either/both, please?

Both is good, even with 5/4, the free bet makes it better than Betfair.

OK, we are all aboard.

As an aside, some mis-clickage arose, & I somehow ALSO backed a £25 Win Double on them. Not for Fred, it has to go in the Misclickage File.

2 BETS PLACED

[Ant040689]

Another one for tomorrow

It's quite easy to think that "Everton just lost badly and Villa won so..." but bear with me

Everton have injury problems. Coleman, Distin, Traore, Gibson, Kone, Deulofeu and Oviedo and now Lukaku.

I think the absence of Coleman and Distin affected them badly at Anfield. This season they've sent their full backs up a lot and relied on the ability of Baines and Coleman to recover. On Wednesday and with their back five disrupted for the first time this season they played a very high line in defence, were caught out repeatedly by balls in behind. Sturridge scored having been put through, Suarez scored from a ball played to him in his own half etcetc

Tomorrow they face Villa who are a very good counter-attacking side away from home. Won four and draw four of their 11 Premier League away games. Exactly the argument I made before their trip to Liverpool.

So we see a team recovering from injuries, notably Benteke's form (one pen, two flick on assiSts in midweek) against a side disrupted at the back and now missing Lukaku?

Just seems the match up is perfectly set up for Villa's style. I would expect Martinez to get the Everton full backs to sit more, but they are farl ess of an atacking threat when they do

Everton are 4/7?

and we get Aston Villa at 6/1 outright or 9/2 Draw no Bet?

Yes please

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/everton-v-aston-villa/draw-no-bet   

This looks tempting.

We can still get 6/1 Villa, &/or 4/1 DNB.

Bet size suggestions please, & should we go WIN or DNB?

Anyone?

I can see logic in this and the Sunderland bet to the effect I have the free £25 treble on Sunderland/Villa and Arsenal.

Much as I love Ants posts, his latest about beating the Arse is absolutely ridic.

Value is value, and I think it is there. I think it won't be 16/1 tomorrow. I think Palace have shown themselves off to be good adversaries to top opponents away from home against Man City (where Hart was MOM) and Chelsea. Correct we never looked like winning either of those, but if we nab a lead somehow the door may be shut for the next however minutes you try to break us down. Regardless, my logic about why to make the bet stands up to the aforementioned? If it doesn't then fair play, ignore it, tis a poor one.

Have a Conference South bet to put up soon but need to put in a tad more research. Of Dulwich Hamlet, the markets that I have liked over the last weeks are no longer there (must have bet them out of business) and unfortunately cannot suggest a bet.

[sonour]

Rory out to evens after two rounds.

Currently 1.73

[Ant040689]

For Sunday's Palace game despite the 4 new signings and in particular the goal threat in Tom Ince, Palace haven't moved down from 16/1 with two firms, with BettyFred and Toteysport remaining.

They were 16/1 on Thursday at best so these two firms haven't reacted.

Palace will park the bus and when Fulham did in the last home match they found it tough to break through until some Cazorla magic. Perhaps Palace are better versed in parking the bus and with Ince in have two goalscoring wingers to break with. Worth a longshot flutter imo. And remember all I have done is bring you Palace value all season

Most are settling at 14/1 and suggest that is all that will be left by kick off.

Suggest a fiver.

Thanks Ant.

"homer" bets are easily the most difficult for me to judge, especially as I claim no particular knowledge of Football, & more so because 90% of your suggestions are about Palace.

We can still get 16/1, & for a fiver, it won't do any great harm, but it really is awkward for me to deal with these things, as I'm sure it is obvious.

I'm happy to get on, a fun fiver does no great harm, but the whole process when it involves homers is awkward & so, ideally, we'd need some warmth from others, just as a means of establishing a protocol.

The advantage of homers (we have a few on Fred) is that they know better than most their own team.

The disadvantage is the myopia.

To repeat, a fiver will do no harm, but I'd just like to better establish how to deal with homer bets.

What you have said above is correct.

I would say the myopia affects me more around what to bet on tbh because I haven't really spread my wings at all to look for other sports, or different teams, and feel as if i have the same confidence with them as i do on what i do tip on. As a shrewdite in training (lol) i will be slowly trying things out for pennies and see if i can beat the system in my own way, and probably with the help of a lot training sources. If i can in different areas privately, this thread will hopefully benefit.

Maybe by the end of the year you get some more varied tips, because tbh I am pissing myself off with what i am tipping. But I find this thread great value, both in bets and in banter, so i am looking to contribute as best as I can. Enjoying it.

I know you mean no harm by what you have said and none is obviously taken, I am just saying I want to make this thread better but I am too much of an ice cream to do so currently, ha!

[tikay]

Another one for tomorrow

It's quite easy to think that "Everton just lost badly and Villa won so..." but bear with me

Everton have injury problems. Coleman, Distin, Traore, Gibson, Kone, Deulofeu and Oviedo and now Lukaku.

I think the absence of Coleman and Distin affected them badly at Anfield. This season they've sent their full backs up a lot and relied on the ability of Baines and Coleman to recover. On Wednesday and with their back five disrupted for the first time this season they played a very high line in defence, were caught out repeatedly by balls in behind. Sturridge scored having been put through, Suarez scored from a ball played to him in his own half etcetc

Tomorrow they face Villa who are a very good counter-attacking side away from home. Won four and draw four of their 11 Premier League away games. Exactly the argument I made before their trip to Liverpool.

So we see a team recovering from injuries, notably Benteke's form (one pen, two flick on assiSts in midweek) against a side disrupted at the back and now missing Lukaku?

Just seems the match up is perfectly set up for Villa's style. I would expect Martinez to get the Everton full backs to sit more, but they are farl ess of an atacking threat when they do

Everton are 4/7?

and we get Aston Villa at 6/1 outright or 9/2 Draw no Bet?

Yes please

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/everton-v-aston-villa/draw-no-bet   

This looks tempting.

We can still get 6/1 Villa, &/or 4/1 DNB.

Bet size suggestions please, & should we go WIN or DNB?

Anyone?

I can see logic in this and the Sunderland bet to the effect I have the free £25 treble on Sunderland/Villa and Arsenal.

Much as I love Ants posts, his latest about beating the Arse is absolutely ridic.

Value is value, and I think it is there. I think it won't be 16/1 tomorrow. I think Palace have shown themselves off to be good adversaries to top opponents away from home against Man City (where Hart was MOM) and Chelsea. Correct we never looked like winning either of those, but if we nab a lead somehow the door may be shut for the next however minutes you try to break us down. Regardless, my logic about why to make the bet stands up to the aforementioned? If it doesn't then fair play, ignore it, tis a poor one.

Have a Conference South bet to put up soon but need to put in a tad more research. Of Dulwich Hamlet, the markets that I have liked over the last weeks are no longer there (must have bet them out of business) and unfortunately cannot suggest a bet.

See my previous Post, Mr Anty.

If your upcoming Recommend does not involve Palace or Dulwich Hamlet, we will get on. Promise.

We'll get on Palace @ 16/1 too if others like it. It does actually look value to my naive eye.

Presumably there is a sort of default price for 2nd at home to 14th, & allowing for respective home & away records. Anyone know what it is? 16/1 does look big to me.

Again, it's not worth debating for a fiver, but I want that we establish how to best deal with homer bets.  Pleno will be along shortly, too. Did you know that Remy is crap? 

[tikay]

For Sunday's Palace game despite the 4 new signings and in particular the goal threat in Tom Ince, Palace haven't moved down from 16/1 with two firms, with BettyFred and Toteysport remaining.

They were 16/1 on Thursday at best so these two firms haven't reacted.

Palace will park the bus and when Fulham did in the last home match they found it tough to break through until some Cazorla magic. Perhaps Palace are better versed in parking the bus and with Ince in have two goalscoring wingers to break with. Worth a longshot flutter imo. And remember all I have done is bring you Palace value all season

Most are settling at 14/1 and suggest that is all that will be left by kick off.

Suggest a fiver.

Thanks Ant.

"homer" bets are easily the most difficult for me to judge, especially as I claim no particular knowledge of Football, & more so because 90% of your suggestions are about Palace.

We can still get 16/1, & for a fiver, it won't do any great harm, but it really is awkward for me to deal with these things, as I'm sure it is obvious.

I'm happy to get on, a fun fiver does no great harm, but the whole process when it involves homers is awkward & so, ideally, we'd need some warmth from others, just as a means of establishing a protocol.

The advantage of homers (we have a few on Fred) is that they know better than most their own team.

The disadvantage is the myopia.

To repeat, a fiver will do no harm, but I'd just like to better establish how to deal with homer bets.

What you have said above is correct.

I would say the myopia affects me more around what to bet on tbh because I haven't really spread my wings at all to look for other sports, or different teams, and feel as if i have the same confidence with them as i do on what i do tip on. As a shrewdite in training (lol) i will be slowly trying things out for pennies and see if i can beat the system in my own way, and probably with the help of a lot training sources. If i can in different areas privately, this thread will hopefully benefit.

Maybe by the end of the year you get some more varied tips, because tbh I am pissing myself off with what i am tipping. But I find this thread great value, both in bets and in banter, so i am looking to contribute as best as I can. Enjoying it.

I know you mean no harm by what you have said and none is obviously taken, I am just saying I want to make this thread better but I am too much of an ice cream to do so currently, ha!

I love you to bits, Ant, I really do. You''ll be an Elder this time next year with that attitude, & once you get away from Palace & Hamlet. You might even be better than Chompy imo.

[tikay]

Rory out to evens after two rounds.

Currently 1.73

Currently 1 off the lead after 8 holes of his third round.

1.73 seems very tight to me.

Fingers crossed though.

[tikay]

Tighty,

All Admin now up to date, I think.

Happy days.

[BigAdz]

Must confess Ant, after Mr Ws desperate deadline day, where again he appears to be the only person associated with Arsenal not to notice we need more strike force. He has obviously decided we dont want to win the title and has his eyes firmly on that favoured fourth spot. This will be a game where an away victory won't be a total disaster, these various monster prices you have me on can at least benefit from our inevitable slide from grace.

[jakally]

We'll get on Palace @ 16/1 too if others like it. It does actually look value to my naive eye.

Presumably there is a sort of default price for 2nd at home to 14th, & allowing for respective home & away records. Anyone know what it is? 16/1 does look big to me.

Again, it's not worth debating for a fiver, but I want that we establish how to best deal with homer bets.  Pleno will be along shortly, too. Did you know that Remy is crap?  

I did some work for a previous recommend, which gave that promoted teams had won 4 out of the last 72, away against the top 3.
It's therefore only value if Palace are a chunk better than the average team in the season after promotion.
(Not watched them so don't know..... are we aware of anyone who might have seen them play....?).

[BigAdz]

Just noticed the outstanding Baby Hair colour bet.

Did they actually have this kid?!!

[tikay]

We'll get on Palace @ 16/1 too if others like it. It does actually look value to my naive eye.

Presumably there is a sort of default price for 2nd at home to 14th, & allowing for respective home & away records. Anyone know what it is? 16/1 does look big to me.

Again, it's not worth debating for a fiver, but I want that we establish how to best deal with homer bets.  Pleno will be along shortly, too. Did you know that Remy is crap?  

I did some work for a previous recommend, which gave that promoted teams had won 4 out of the last 72, away against the top 3.
It's therefore only value if Palace are a chunk better than the average team in the season after promotion.
(Not watched them so don't know..... are we aware of anyone who might have seen them play....?).

Now there is some logic.

Do we know anyone who has seen them play? Nah.

[tikay]

Just noticed the outstanding Baby Hair colour bet.

Did they actually have this kid?!!

It's almost like there is a news blackout - google reports no new articles or news since January 17th.

All joking aside, I do hope the baby is OK, that lack of news seems very odd, all things considered.

Perhaps it is ginger, & they are afraid of Camel's reaction?

[Ant040689]

For Sunday's Palace game despite the 4 new signings and in particular the goal threat in Tom Ince, Palace haven't moved down from 16/1 with two firms, with BettyFred and Toteysport remaining.

They were 16/1 on Thursday at best so these two firms haven't reacted.

Palace will park the bus and when Fulham did in the last home match they found it tough to break through until some Cazorla magic. Perhaps Palace are better versed in parking the bus and with Ince in have two goalscoring wingers to break with. Worth a longshot flutter imo. And remember all I have done is bring you Palace value all season

Most are settling at 14/1 and suggest that is all that will be left by kick off.

Suggest a fiver.

Thanks Ant.

"homer" bets are easily the most difficult for me to judge, especially as I claim no particular knowledge of Football, & more so because 90% of your suggestions are about Palace.

We can still get 16/1, & for a fiver, it won't do any great harm, but it really is awkward for me to deal with these things, as I'm sure it is obvious.

I'm happy to get on, a fun fiver does no great harm, but the whole process when it involves homers is awkward & so, ideally, we'd need some warmth from others, just as a means of establishing a protocol.

The advantage of homers (we have a few on Fred) is that they know better than most their own team.

The disadvantage is the myopia.

To repeat, a fiver will do no harm, but I'd just like to better establish how to deal with homer bets.

What you have said above is correct.

I would say the myopia affects me more around what to bet on tbh because I haven't really spread my wings at all to look for other sports, or different teams, and feel as if i have the same confidence with them as i do on what i do tip on. As a shrewdite in training (lol) i will be slowly trying things out for pennies and see if i can beat the system in my own way, and probably with the help of a lot training sources. If i can in different areas privately, this thread will hopefully benefit.

Maybe by the end of the year you get some more varied tips, because tbh I am pissing myself off with what i am tipping. But I find this thread great value, both in bets and in banter, so i am looking to contribute as best as I can. Enjoying it.

I know you mean no harm by what you have said and none is obviously taken, I am just saying I want to make this thread better but I am too much of an ice cream to do so currently, ha!

I love you to bits, Ant, I really do. You''ll be an Elder this time next year with that attitude, & once you get away from Palace & Hamlet. You might even be better than Chompy imo.

good stuff.

The bet suggestion is a homer, I follow Bromley FC. It is for Staines to beat them at 9/4. Bromley's recent performances really are below par despite results and I don't think the bookies are gonna be aware of that, so therein lies the value.

Leaving it won't be a problem for me Tikay, i mentioned it earlier so thought i would post it.

[tikay]

For Sunday's Palace game despite the 4 new signings and in particular the goal threat in Tom Ince, Palace haven't moved down from 16/1 with two firms, with BettyFred and Toteysport remaining.

They were 16/1 on Thursday at best so these two firms haven't reacted.

Palace will park the bus and when Fulham did in the last home match they found it tough to break through until some Cazorla magic. Perhaps Palace are better versed in parking the bus and with Ince in have two goalscoring wingers to break with. Worth a longshot flutter imo. And remember all I have done is bring you Palace value all season

Most are settling at 14/1 and suggest that is all that will be left by kick off.

Suggest a fiver.

Thanks Ant.

"homer" bets are easily the most difficult for me to judge, especially as I claim no particular knowledge of Football, & more so because 90% of your suggestions are about Palace.

We can still get 16/1, & for a fiver, it won't do any great harm, but it really is awkward for me to deal with these things, as I'm sure it is obvious.

I'm happy to get on, a fun fiver does no great harm, but the whole process when it involves homers is awkward & so, ideally, we'd need some warmth from others, just as a means of establishing a protocol.

The advantage of homers (we have a few on Fred) is that they know better than most their own team.

The disadvantage is the myopia.

To repeat, a fiver will do no harm, but I'd just like to better establish how to deal with homer bets.

What you have said above is correct.

I would say the myopia affects me more around what to bet on tbh because I haven't really spread my wings at all to look for other sports, or different teams, and feel as if i have the same confidence with them as i do on what i do tip on. As a shrewdite in training (lol) i will be slowly trying things out for pennies and see if i can beat the system in my own way, and probably with the help of a lot training sources. If i can in different areas privately, this thread will hopefully benefit.

Maybe by the end of the year you get some more varied tips, because tbh I am pissing myself off with what i am tipping. But I find this thread great value, both in bets and in banter, so i am looking to contribute as best as I can. Enjoying it.

I know you mean no harm by what you have said and none is obviously taken, I am just saying I want to make this thread better but I am too much of an ice cream to do so currently, ha!

I love you to bits, Ant, I really do. You''ll be an Elder this time next year with that attitude, & once you get away from Palace & Hamlet. You might even be better than Chompy imo.

good stuff.

The bet suggestion is a homer, I follow Bromley FC. It is for Staines to beat them at 9/4. Bromley's recent performances really are below par despite results and I don't think the bookies are gonna be aware of that, so therein lies the value.

Leaving it won't be a problem for me Tikay, i mentioned it earlier so thought i would post it.

What - another homer (anti-version)?

Bang out of order!