Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

And the number of OMAHAs bet seems to have an Atlantic divide.

UK bookies have all set/copied their line at 32.5 times.

Vegas goes 27.5.

http://m.theweek.com/article.php?id=255838

Some wise chap on the telly the other day said no one ever backs unders because it's dull and you want to cheer on the win. And Neil Channing agreed with him.

Is this exploitable?

http://m.omaha.com/article.html?hash=/103733/4fc010557737904a5636806ace9b26bc/http://www.omaha.com/article/20140131/MONEY/140139781

That was Boycie, & it actually set me thinking, as it must distort the lines if true.

A beautifully executed reraise, sir!

I am minded to think there will be fewer Omahas than previously. The championship game was in the twenties. Might also be a question over how many snaps they have, if Seattle do well and run the clock down.

Am genuinely interested in views on this. Can't be a worse market than trying to pick first touchdown, can it?

I believe that some charity that Manning has an interest in gets some money every time that he says Omaha in the Super Bowl.
He may not be thinking about that when he is playing for the big prize but it may be worth considering.

Thanks, Mere. Yes it's $1,500 a mumble.

[horseplayer]

http://www.lequipe.fr/Football/Actualites/Pitroipa-reste-a-rennes/437167

Stoke backers not happy

Suppose it saves the inevitable barney with Lads

[tikay]

Doobs do you think Anthea Turner is big at 33/1 in The Jump?

Probably.  I did a bit of reading before, and isn't She an experienced skier?  Not backed her and not got time to do any research now.  She doesn't seem the type to be competitive tho.  Don't think it can be terrible.  I might bung a fiver on.  Cheers

Just back, just found out she has a ski chalet.  Telegraph man puts her 2nd in the girls.  Doesn't suggest snowplough turns to me.  Upped it to £20. 

Thread Banzai probably good.  Get on the phone Tikay before 8 33/1 in a few places.

Anthea top woman 14-1 with Hills. Can't find details on how someone becomes the champion/winner if the boys and girls are doing different things each night. Anyone know?

I know Fred is not on, but just in case anyone else followed this Anthea is the last women standing after Kimberly going out tonight so 14-1 is weighed in.

Wow, well noted Omm.

If Fred is not on, that is an Admin error on my part. I need to go back in the thread, but Joe Beeevers & Doobs discussed it, & Doobs urged me to take a fiver @ 33/1.

I've just checked, & I placed TWO bets, 1 minute apart, on January 27th, (ties in with timings above) with Wm Hill, see.....

27 Jan 14 / 19:18  Single 1   The Jump 2014 - Top Female  –  Top Female Anthea Turner @ 14/1 – £5.00 O/0457483/0000808/F
27 Jan 14 / 19:17  Single 1   The Jump 2014 - Outright  –  Outright Anthea Turner @ 33/1 – £5.00 O/0457483/0000807/F

You know me, no way on God's earth would I be backing Novelty Shite Off-Thread, I can't abide it, so I clearly intended them for Fred, but must have forgotten to confirm.

Makes no difference to me personally, but it's too late to allow Fred to have them now, CO Doobs & Mere would be seriously grumpy about it, but it's a tad annoying, that's at least twice this has happened in January, & would deffo have helped with the numbers.

Anyway, great bets, whoever suggested them, thank you.

these should definitely be on thread's ledger

No way you'd have done it for off thread japes is there?! Hardly.

Just a consequence of getting behind on the admin.

Not sure who is the final call on this, but thats my vote

I'm going to have the final say on this.

As clear as it seems that the intent was for the bets to be for Fred, they shouldn't be allowed at this late stage. It would set a bad precedent.
Whilst we all might agree that tikay would not normally speculate on markets such as these for his personal account, issues might not be so clear in the future on different bets and we should avoid any future difficulties by drawing a clear line now.

To confirm, these bets should not be included for Fred.

Have to agree. The intent is clear, but we can't start backdating bets after they win, it is very important that our numbers stand up to scrutiny, and we don't fudge the lines.

Shame really, but completely right.

I just remembered, I did once back a Novelty Shite bet on my own account, but that was a rare exception, I deeply researched the "Who will appear in CBB?" market, and identified Jim the Racist, I even passed it on to Chompy.

[MereNovice]

And the number of OMAHAs bet seems to have an Atlantic divide.

UK bookies have all set/copied their line at 32.5 times.

Vegas goes 27.5.

http://m.theweek.com/article.php?id=255838

Some wise chap on the telly the other day said no one ever backs unders because it's dull and you want to cheer on the win. And Neil Channing agreed with him.

Is this exploitable?

http://m.omaha.com/article.html?hash=/103733/4fc010557737904a5636806ace9b26bc/http://www.omaha.com/article/20140131/MONEY/140139781

That was Boycie, & it actually set me thinking, as it must distort the lines if true.

It is true and it does distort the lines in Spread Betting particularly.
People like to cheer on for things to happen generally, i.e. for tries/points to be scored in a rugby match so the lines are generally set high.
Also, there is a feeling amongst cornetto loving punters that you have a limited loss if you back "unders" as opposed to "infinite" possible winnings if you back overs in spread markets.

However, I note that Hector62 (and you concurred) took a contrarian view when he said that he likes to back "unders" in markets because then you are winning on your bet for most of the game (at least) generally.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £790.49

Outstanding Bets tba

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=34

I won't do a long report, as Mere will be along shortly with the January reconcilation

There were three losses to end the month

- England's T20 loss 2-0 for £40

- Allardyce sill at West Ham for £40

- Young losing in straight sets to Murray for £10


Alreadya busy day tomorrow for the thread with football programme, start of the six Nations, Rory McIlroy hopefully holding on in Dubai ansd the prospect of more Superbowl bets

[MereNovice]

January 2014  Figures

Closed bets: 118
Amount wagered: £2,778.50
Profit/loss: -£790.49
ROI: -28.45%

Number of "sports" bet on: 12
Most popular: Football (25), Horses (25),  NFL (14),  RU (14).
Most (and only) profitable:  Misc. (£50.00), Horses (£27.62), Basketball (£20.00)
Least profitable: NFL (-£335.82), RU (-£132.38), Football (-£111.94)

Number of tipsters: 25 including no new tipsters.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 2,812
Amount wagered: £89,833.19
Profit/loss: £4,181.07
ROI: 4.65%

Number of "sports" bet on: 30
Most popular:  Football (704), Horses(669), Golf (246), Cricket(192).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Horses   2,445.98   22,681.24   10.78   669
Football   2,115.52   22,050.14   9.59   704
NFL   662.91   7,017.13   9.45   176
...
[bFormula1   -383.00   824.00   -46.48   31
Basketball   -954.18   3,008.89   -31.71   74
Golf   -1,015.26   6,513.34   -15.59   246[/b]


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 141


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 37

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
BetVictor   1,523.30   13,134.50   11.60   424
BoyleSports   1,520.40   4,375.45   34.75   110
WilliamHill   1,214.76   14,453.66   8.40   464
...
Bwin   -316.35   2,265.00   -13.97   58
BetFred   -460.62   5,510.00   -8.36   184
Betfair   -797.36   10,241.65   -7.79   210


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=7


As previously posted by tikay I have archived off all the old bets as the spreadsheet was reaching the limits of what can be achieved using Google docs.
The archive can be found here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdHVrekx6T0REUXVNOWw5YTVWa0pWZGc#gid=7

[Marky147]

What a slowroll on Fulham and Stoke

[Tal]

Thanks, Mere.

Jamie Ward takes Sam Querrey to a fifth set in the Davis Cup on BBC 2.

[sonour]

Doobs do you think Anthea Turner is big at 33/1 in The Jump?

Probably.  I did a bit of reading before, and isn't She an experienced skier?  Not backed her and not got time to do any research now.  She doesn't seem the type to be competitive tho.  Don't think it can be terrible.  I might bung a fiver on.  Cheers

Just back, just found out she has a ski chalet.  Telegraph man puts her 2nd in the girls.  Doesn't suggest snowplough turns to me.  Upped it to £20. 

Thread Banzai probably good.  Get on the phone Tikay before 8 33/1 in a few places.

Anthea top woman 14-1 with Hills. Can't find details on how someone becomes the champion/winner if the boys and girls are doing different things each night. Anyone know?

I know Fred is not on, but just in case anyone else followed this Anthea is the last women standing after Kimberly going out tonight so 14-1 is weighed in.

Thank you Omm.

[Doobs]

Doobs do you think Anthea Turner is big at 33/1 in The Jump?

Probably.  I did a bit of reading before, and isn't She an experienced skier?  Not backed her and not got time to do any research now.  She doesn't seem the type to be competitive tho.  Don't think it can be terrible.  I might bung a fiver on.  Cheers

Just back, just found out she has a ski chalet.  Telegraph man puts her 2nd in the girls.  Doesn't suggest snowplough turns to me.  Upped it to £20. 

Thread Banzai probably good.  Get on the phone Tikay before 8 33/1 in a few places.

Anthea top woman 14-1 with Hills. Can't find details on how someone becomes the champion/winner if the boys and girls are doing different things each night. Anyone know?

I know Fred is not on, but just in case anyone else followed this Anthea is the last women standing after Kimberly going out tonight so 14-1 is weighed in.

Wow, well noted Omm.

If Fred is not on, that is an Admin error on my part. I need to go back in the thread, but Joe Beeevers & Doobs discussed it, & Doobs urged me to take a fiver @ 33/1.

I've just checked, & I placed TWO bets, 1 minute apart, on January 27th, (ties in with timings above) with Wm Hill, see.....

27 Jan 14 / 19:18  Single 1   The Jump 2014 - Top Female  –  Top Female Anthea Turner @ 14/1 – £5.00 O/0457483/0000808/F
27 Jan 14 / 19:17  Single 1   The Jump 2014 - Outright  –  Outright Anthea Turner @ 33/1 – £5.00 O/0457483/0000807/F

You know me, no way on God's earth would I be backing Novelty Shite Off-Thread, I can't abide it, so I clearly intended them for Fred, but must have forgotten to confirm.

Makes no difference to me personally, but it's too late to allow Fred to have them now, CO Doobs & Mere would be seriously grumpy about it, but it's a tad annoying, that's at least twice this has happened in January, & would deffo have helped with the numbers.

Anyway, great bets, whoever suggested them, thank you.

these should definitely be on thread's ledger

No way you'd have done it for off thread japes is there?! Hardly.

Just a consequence of getting behind on the admin.

Not sure who is the final call on this, but thats my vote

I'm going to have the final say on this.

As clear as it seems that the intent was for the bets to be for Fred, they shouldn't be allowed at this late stage. It would set a bad precedent.
Whilst we all might agree that tikay would not normally speculate on markets such as these for his personal account, issues might not be so clear in the future on different bets and we should avoid any future difficulties by drawing a clear line now.

To confirm, these bets should not be included for Fred.

Have to agree. The intent is clear, but we can't start backdating bets after they win, it is very important that our numbers stand up to scrutiny, and we don't fudge the lines.

Shame really, but completely right.

I just remembered, I did once back a Novelty Shite bet on my own account, but that was a rare exception, I deeply researched the "Who will appear in CBB?" market, and identified Jim the Racist, I even passed it on to Chompy.

I am with Mere on this.  

You are more likely to be prompted to check if you have backed a winner, as people tend to brag about them.  It isn't nearly as likely someone is going to prompt you to check if you backed a loser.  

[TightEnd]

Lets keep up to date on admin then. I sense it was a very tough week in tikay towers juggling a heavy schedule

One of those things.

[Bad Beat]

 May be a tough job counting the Omahas. Alright in a home game when they all stay respectfully silent while the offence plays. This will not be the case Sunday.

 I remember we had an office junior watch the cup final about 8 times to count the throw-ins when we were the 1st spread firm to do that one and a punter kept complaining that we were wrong. Fuck his life. 

[jakally]

Thanks, Mere.

Jamie Ward takes Sam Querrey to a fifth set in the Davis Cup on BBC 2.

Not a big tennis fan, but that was an amazing watch.
Mouth-open stuff at some of the shots the British guy was picking off.

Sets up a great weekend of sport. Almost feels like I don't need to bet to enjoy it. Almost.

[MereNovice]

May be a tough job counting the Omahas. Alright in a home game when they all stay respectfully silent while the offence plays. This will not be the case Sunday.

 I remember we had an office junior watch the cup final about 8 times to count the throw-ins when we were the 1st spread firm to do that one and a punter kept complaining that we were wrong. Fuck his life. 

I'm still sure that I was right and you owe me 10p.

[Bad Beat]

lol