Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/spain/copa-del-rey/atl-madrid-v-real-madrid/winner

Suggest £50 on Real Madrid at 7/5 tuesday night


No Costa, Courtois, Villa or Felipe in the At Madrid squad as they finally decide to rest some players

As a other point of view, arent madrid 3-0 up from firstleg? How bothered will they be themselves?

Madrid are always bothered in a derby game against Atheltico and vice versa

Reals reserves are much better than Athletico's

Notably Ronaldo will be starting as he's 1 game into a 3 match La Liga ban. Real were 10/11 for the 1st leg and Barca were 7/5 at Atletico in January.

I suggest Tikay get's on if there's still some 2.38 left in the morning, the Asian bookies have shortened into a best of 2.28.

There was no 2.38 available to me, but I got a bit of 2.3. Probably a bit thin, but might just about be OK.

[tikay]

Excellent photo gallery Lord Chomps, though we could have done without the provocative pose from the mature woman. If she is only 20 years older than Billy Kee, he must be the oldest footballer on earth.

[tikay]

Hulk Hogan is 9/2 with Spoils, same each-way stips as tree sicks five.

If Spoils account is spoiled, one suggests sir open an account with Shawnymac, and gets the free bet. Same prices as spoils.

Thanks Luther,

I eventually, & with help from the more erudite Freds, decoded all of that.

Pretty sure Shawnymac are a Boyles skin? I'm effectively closed down @ Boyles, so is there any point me depositing @ Mac?

[tikay]

Just watched the race from yesterday again and I love the Ryan Air plan Adz. Also pretty sure we'll just get our money back for Gold Cup so must have been a great bet.

 Feel like the winner at 10/1 is probably still great value for the Gold Cup (nrnb pretty important here).

I think we've got all those bases covered now Neil.

We have Lyreen for the Ryanair (nearly £10 ew @ up to 33/1), + Lyreen for the Gold Cup, both with NRNB I believe.

We also have Last Instalment for the Gold Cup @ 14/1.

What can possibly go wrong? 

[tikay]

Anyone like the West Ham to win to nil? Now down to 13/5.

Also the lay of Man U away to Palace coming up (Palace and the draw double chance/Asian handicap Palace +0.5), its around 6/4? Man U are 4/7 to win at Selhurst, and I am not sure that is a true price.

I really don't like these win to nil bets.  To me it just seems likely they are likely just making an extra margin.  

What percentage of the time, when they win, do you think they win to nil?  Are the bookies assuming it happens less likely than this, or have they got a better grasp of this kind of thing than you have?  

My assumption is that Win-to-nil prices are simply a mathematical extension of the Outrights. If the Outright is correct or wrong, so is the win to nil, I'd have thought.

I can tell you that Bookies like them.

[horseplayer]

There are some semi-interesting Ruby Walsh stats doing the rounds re Cheltenham.

His last 35 chase rides at Cheltenham have seen no winners, he has only completed on 4 of his last 18 chase rides.

Interestingly only 7 of those rides were for Willie Mullins and the shortest price of those Mullins runners was 15/2.

I would suggest the Ruby stat makes a lot more sense when you see this stat re Paul Nicholls who is 0-65 with chasers at Cheltenham since the 2009 Gold Cup win of Kauto Star.

[DungBeetle]

Anyone like the West Ham to win to nil? Now down to 13/5.

Also the lay of Man U away to Palace coming up (Palace and the draw double chance/Asian handicap Palace +0.5), its around 6/4? Man U are 4/7 to win at Selhurst, and I am not sure that is a true price.

Definitely agree that Man Utd are too short away at Palace.

[Tal]

There are some semi-interesting Ruby Walsh stats doing the rounds re Cheltenham.

His last 35 chase rides at Cheltenham have seen no winners, he has only completed on 4 of his last 18 chase rides.

Interestingly only 7 of those rides were for Willie Mullins and the shortest price of those Mullins runners was 15/2.

I would suggest the Ruby stat makes a lot more sense when you see this stat re Paul Nicholls who is 0-65 with chasers at Cheltenham since the 2009 Gold Cup win of Kauto Star.

0-65? That's an incredible stat!

Is that going to make any difference to the price of, say, Silviniaco Conti? I don't suppose the punters care about something like that.

[horseplayer]

I doubt it

Have delved into the 65 a bit deeper and a lot have gone close and a lot more have finished 3rd.

Looks an anomaly at this stage

[Chompy]

Wasn't there a time when Nicholls only won Cheltenham Festival races with his chasers, and had never binked with a hurdler?

Stats shmats imo. Each case on its merits.

[Bad Beat]

 One general thing about Nicholls at Cheltenham that may be just a perception...I reckon he does poorly in a lot of the handicaps because he campaigns his horses too honestly. They all go into the races with solid form and they've won races so they are often favourite or close to the front of the betting. The problem is that the races are so competitive and you need a few pounds in hand to win.

 Handicaps at the festival appear to me to be won by Tony Martin, Pipe, Jonjo, G. Moore...all the crooks in other words.

 I haven't done any work on this, it's just a perception. If anyone cares to save me the time...

 Obviously his horses are very high-profile and they are all covered in the media more than other stables so it's hard for the SP to be bigger than the "true chance".

[BigAdz]

Talking of crooks, I had to laugh at an interview Matt Chapman did with Willie Mullins over the weekend.

Matt had him tied up in knots and it was all Mullins could do to stop himself from saying"look Matt I am desperate not to tell you, and I want to tell you as little as possible"

I always thought he was genuine, but if you saw the interview you may well have felt the same let down feeling I did that he is defo trying to have us all over for some strange reason.

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[Bad Beat]

 Generally I find Chapman extremely irritating and I don't really think he knows very much about racing at all. I did really enjoy that interview (and a couple of others he did on Sunday). We all know Mullins doesn't really want to tell us anything at all, but most of the journos allow him to skate through the interviews without actually saying anything. At least Chapman tried.

 I nearly read the Mullins column in the post the other day and then I realised that would just be an utter waste of time. There are so many up and coming trainers who would welcome the publicity and who would actually be prepared to say something about their stable and the plans for the horses in it, having Mullins, and also Henderson when he was there, just a waste of time and money.

 I can understand them saying the owners pay the bills and why should we tell you lot anything, but if that is your view it is massively hypocritical to take money from the Post. Obviously the Post are at fault for offering.

 Also feel the same about McCain and Elliot on Betfair.

[horseplayer]

Calling Golf experts

Jimmy Walker has now won 3 of his last 8 Pga events, this after taking 188 to win his first last season.

I am struggling to see why he is as big as 22-1 this week especially when you take into account the quotes below.

"Walker is looking forward to the Northern Trust Open, which starts in four days at Riviera, his favorite tournament of the year.
''I love the golf course, and I've had good success there,'' he said. ''I'll enjoy tonight, and then it's time to refocus and reset everything, because we've got a whole new look next week. And it looks like the long-range forecast looks good for nice weather, and it's always nice to play Riviera when it's nice.''
Walker isn't getting too far ahead of himself. He's not looking too far behind.
He found the winning formula four months ago about an hour away at the Frys.com Open when he won for the first time. Now he can't seem to lose."

Source http://sports.yahoo.com/news/jimmy-walker-turning-winning-habit-084204765--golf.html and various other sites he mentions it as his fav course even before he started winning.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/northern-trust-open/winner

To a novice golf watcher it seems hard to me he is the same price as DeLaet for example.