Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Good afternoon all.

UKPC is done & dusted now, so normal service should resume soon enough, though you seem to have coped wonderfully & made a little money. There is a moral of the story there somewhere.

If there are "outstanding" bets that need reviewing or placing, please nudge me, as it'll take me for ever to work through a week's backlog of Fred, & I'm bound to miss them, & many of them wlil be stale prices or bets now.

Chelters is round the corner, & I plan to take the week off work, so we can build & follow our portfolio.

Please note I shall be unavoidably absent on Sun Alliance Day if Lord Grumpy & Dubai plan to be silly again.

PS - Well done to Doobsy on his 4 from 4 on Saturday. We should have done a Yaankee, obv.

[TightEnd]

Clermont and France centre Wesley Fofana out injured for rest of 6 Nations.

Them, unfortunately, are the breaks

[Marky147]

Good afternoon all.

UKPC is done & dusted now, so normal service should resume soon enough, though you seem to have coped wonderfully & made a little money. There is a moral of the story there somewhere.

If there are "outstanding" bets that need reviewing or placing, please nudge me, as it'll take me for ever to work through a week's backlog of Fred, & I'm bound to miss them, & many of them wlil be stale prices or bets now.

Chelters is round the corner, & I plan to take the week off work, so we can build & follow our portfolio.

Please note I shall be unavoidably absent on Sun Alliance Day if Lord Grumpy & Dubai plan to be silly again.

PS - Well done to Doobsy on his 4 from 4 on Saturday. We should have done a Yaankee, obv.

Sky are sponsoring that very same race this year, so it would probably be rude not to get involved

[Bad Beat]

 Ladbrokes make Hinterland 16/1 for the Arkle (from 10/1). 15 minutes to take it if you want. I wouldn't rush.

 Surely you mean if WillHill plan to be silly? It weren't us that waz being silly guv.

[Waz1892]

All of the points you make about Chelsea and the other sides are valid but none are points that the odds-compilers, or much more importantly, this very liquid and heavily analysed market, will have failed to notice.

 It is almost impossible for such a well-established market to be wrong right now.

 Today I am spending time looking at the Ryan Air chase at Cheltenham, with Sprinter Sacre not running at Cheltenham several of the favourites for this race are moving to the Champion Chase. This new information is well known by the market but there has been little reaction. Some prices could be massively wrong. There are horses at 20/1 and 16/1 that could be 5/1 on the day. The market is mature but the new information has yet to be correctly processed and the market bashed into shape by the attrition and erosion of thousands of bets. That will happen in the next 24 hours.

 The premier market has that happening all the time, as well as a large number of professional gamblers running simulations which factor in points expectation and generate a % chance of each team winning.

 In my horse thing I can be arrogant enough to say I know better than the whole market as the market has imo been slow to react and needs time to correct.

 To be arrogant enough to assume that all the pro gamblers, odds compilers and the general public have got the most high-profile football league in the world completely wrong we are going to need some piece of knowledge they haven't got, or a solid reason why the market has become skewed heavily, (too heavily), in one direction.

 Even if we manage to convince ourselves that this is the case we are at best going to convince ourselves that 11/8 should be the "correct" price and not 6/4.

 In my horse race I might get 16/1 about something that really "should" currently be 6/1. I may get 8% of +ev and you might get 2%.
 
 It sucks if you love the Premier and hate horse racing but it's clear which one is worth putting the work into.

 On the plus side the top four in the premier can be backed at 6/4, 6/4, 8/1 and 8/1 meaning the market is getting close to 100% with no edge to anyone. The other great thing is you can get pretty much what you want on which is harder in the horse race.

 The question you may have to ask is why is the collective brain of all the compilers, gamblers and public not needing much margin on this one? The answer is because it's liquid and fairly easy, in the crowds opinion, to get to the "right" price.

Grabs tail, places between legs and scuttles off.  

Seriously, thanks for the reply. Way above my head, I certainly dont think at that level of thought. Understand the analysis that is put in these things by the experts.

My comment was based in fixtures on paper, couldnt (and still dont) understand how city can be favourites, whatever the odds

[JoeBeevers]

Brown?

http://www.hellomagazine.com/royalty/2014022417153/zara-phillips-mike-tindal-first-baby-pictures/

[Tal]

Brown?

http://www.hellomagazine.com/royalty/2014022417153/zara-phillips-mike-tindal-first-baby-pictures/

Looks brown to me

Which colour was Fred on?

[Bad Beat]

 Hi Waz, sorry mate, wasn't having a go and I'd hate to stop you posting. Definitely it's good to think what price do I make it and what price do I therefore make the others? It maybe that in your opinion the price on Chelsea is too big BECAUSE the City price is too short. If you are thinking like that then you are ahead of 90% of punters...sadly you need to be above 95% to be a long-term winner.

 I certainly wouldn't stop you having a bet on this market if you have that view. By shopping around the best prices with bookies and Betfair you are playing in a market with almost zero advantage to either bookies or punters. It would be almost impossible for the "correct" price of Chelsea to be too far away from the current market though. By the correct price I mean the one where if we could run this situation 10,000 times you could not win or lose by betting Chelsea. Maybe you might say that the correct price is 11/8 a fractional difference from the current price. You'll do well to argue that it should be 5/4 though and so even if you are right it gives such a tiny edge.

 The premier outright market is a good way to practise thinking about pricing up events as it varies only a small amount after each game, there are not too many variables and it is almost never wrong.

[ripple11]

Brown sounds good!.

who did we have the bet with?....it's been so long he's probably starting prep school next week.

[BigAdz]

Billy.

I have got it referred to the traders

[Tal]

Not a recommend; just an oddity.

Day off work for me, today and, rather than doing anything useful like housework, cerebral like reading a good book or mindnumbing like daytime telly, I've been watching the Welsh Open Snooker. Ian Burns is a name I've only seen on paper, rather than ever having seen him play. He has the most curious action, where he only looks straight at the pocket he's aiming for, rather than watching the cue ball or the object ball. It's quite something to witness when he's playing into a blind pocket.

He's currently 2-1 up against Matthew Stevens on Eurosport, btw.

Has anyone seen anything like that before?

[Stopsleyhatter]

Good afternoon people no injury worries for Luton Town tomorrow at home to Wrexham.Should be a 7000+ home crowd cheering on a team with terrific momentum.Luton ht/ft at evens should come in.

[The Camel]

Hull are 1.76 now.

Phew.

Sheffield Weds still at 1.97 though.

Not phew.

[TightEnd]

I know that Fred is not a great fan of F1 but it's time to reinvest some of the Vettel money from last year before the prices disappear.

There are major changes in F1 this year and the picks all come down to reliability. My friend who works for Force India spent two hours last night explaining all about new engines, new designs and new rules and he clearly makes Mercedes favourite.

Mercedes have two great drivers in Rosberg and Hamilton. Hamilton is the more aggressive of the two and is the pick for the drivers championship as a result.

You can still get 10/3 with HillyBilly, Ladsmoke and Joe C and on Betfair you can lay him at 3.95 with fair liquidity.

Mercedes are 2.18 / 2.28 (thin) for the constructors on Betfair and you can still bet 11/8 (2.375) with Fred and Teto.

Both represent great value even without the arb situation.

Recommend £30 @ 100/30 and £40 at 11/8

First Grand Prix of the season is Australia on March 16th.

bump for tikay

I have forgotten your log ins :-)

[TightEnd]

We have a small button bet, can someone take a look at Magnusson each way for the first races?

BMU is 10/1 for Australia and 1/5 odds for the each way, top three.

bump for tikay

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

12/1 e/w butfried and spoilsports