Tips for Tikay

[JoeBeevers]

What's your/your man's view on the RB10? Should we be expecting it to be stronger in the second half of the season, once they have the laps in? They still have the best driver and the best technical team.

Undoubtedly it will be stronger but depends on how far behind they are at that point to catch up and also whether Vettel has lost his motivation because he is a like a child and may have thrown his toys out of pram!

[neeko]

What's the implications of the homologation of engines at the end of this month?

If Renault are still in a mess - how can they fix it after this date if engine is locked down - surely all Renault teams are buggered for the whole year.

[Tal]

What's your/your man's view on the RB10? Should we be expecting it to be stronger in the second half of the season, once they have the laps in? They still have the best driver and the best technical team.

Undoubtedly it will be stronger but depends on how far behind they are at that point to catch up and also whether Vettel has lost his motivation because he is a like a child and may have thrown his toys out of pram!

Fair enough! Thanks for asking

Edit: Thinking about it, that second bit is a really good point about Vettel. He's a great winner but, when it isn't going well, even by F1 driver standards, he is a fine example of the breed. Saves me from the bet on him, as I was going to go in when he hit 3/1. Duly put off that now. Another reason I love this thread.

[doubleup]

Slybet doing a money back if Irving wins  the 3.15 at Kempton.  Even though it isn't best price, First Mohican a no brainier for those that can get on for £25.  Obviously not for thread, but Tikay waist deep in sticky buns at the moment.

They are saying this is a free bet not money back....

[KarmaDope]

Magnussen is currently 12/1 with the bald fella.

[Waz1892]

Thoughts on chelsea at 6/4 for league.

Fixtures of note;

11 games to play, 3 top 10 sides, 8 bottom half.

Compare that to current favourites City;

Away to Man utd, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton

Arsenal too, big away games in Spurs, chelsea and Everton

Chelsea only tough away game is Liverpool.

6/4 seems decent on the above basis. Mourinho been there before, plenty current squad too.

Any reason not to go £40?

[Doobs]

Slybet doing a money back if Irving wins  the 3.15 at Kempton.  Even though it isn't best price, First Mohican a no brainier for those that can get on for £25.  Obviously not for thread, but Tikay waist deep in sticky buns at the moment.

They are saying this is a free bet not money back....

I thought I understood what money back meant.  Guess I should read the detail better.

Money Back Special

Sky Bet are proud sponsors of the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and to celebrate we’re offering money back if the favourite wins the 3.15 Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton this Saturday.

Simply place a win or each way bet on the race and if the favourite wins we’ll refund the win part of your stake as a free bet the same day.

Thanks for letting me know, I'd have probably missed it

[exstream]

Thoughts on chelsea at 6/4 for league.

Fixtures of note;

11 games to play, 3 top 10 sides, 8 bottom half.

Compare that to current favourites City;

Away to Man utd, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton

Arsenal too, big away games in Spurs, chelsea and Everton

Chelsea only tough away game is Liverpool.

6/4 seems decent on the above basis. Mourinho been there before, plenty current squad too.

Any reason not to go £40?

Aguero due back, look totally different side.
Chelsea most likely to still be in the Champions League, Man City not.

[Waz1892]

Thoughts on chelsea at 6/4 for league.

Fixtures of note;

11 games to play, 3 top 10 sides, 8 bottom half.

Compare that to current favourites City;

Away to Man utd, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton

Arsenal too, big away games in Spurs, chelsea and Everton

Chelsea only tough away game is Liverpool.

6/4 seems decent on the above basis. Mourinho been there before, plenty current squad too.

Any reason not to go £40?

Aguero due back, look totally different side.
Chelsea most likely to still be in the Champions League, Man City not.

Valid points; Aguero makes a difference yes, but to that degree?  I think chelsea has a strong enough squad to cope though,

[Bad Beat]

 All of the points you make about Chelsea and the other sides are valid but none are points that the odds-compilers, or much more importantly, this very liquid and heavily analysed market, will have failed to notice.

 It is almost impossible for such a well-established market to be wrong right now.

 Today I am spending time looking at the Ryan Air chase at Cheltenham, with Sprinter Sacre not running at Cheltenham several of the favourites for this race are moving to the Champion Chase. This new information is well known by the market but there has been little reaction. Some prices could be massively wrong. There are horses at 20/1 and 16/1 that could be 5/1 on the day. The market is mature but the new information has yet to be correctly processed and the market bashed into shape by the attrition and erosion of thousands of bets. That will happen in the next 24 hours.

 The premier market has that happening all the time, as well as a large number of professional gamblers running simulations which factor in points expectation and generate a % chance of each team winning.

 In my horse thing I can be arrogant enough to say I know better than the whole market as the market has imo been slow to react and needs time to correct.

 To be arrogant enough to assume that all the pro gamblers, odds compilers and the general public have got the most high-profile football league in the world completely wrong we are going to need some piece of knowledge they haven't got, or a solid reason why the market has become skewed heavily, (too heavily), in one direction.

 Even if we manage to convince ourselves that this is the case we are at best going to convince ourselves that 11/8 should be the "correct" price and not 6/4.

 In my horse race I might get 16/1 about something that really "should" currently be 6/1. I may get 8% of +ev and you might get 2%.

 It sucks if you love the Premier and hate horse racing but it's clear which one is worth putting the work into.

 On the plus side the top four in the premier can be backed at 6/4, 6/4, 8/1 and 8/1 meaning the market is getting close to 100% with no edge to anyone. The other great thing is you can get pretty much what you want on which is harder in the horse race.

 The question you may have to ask is why is the collective brain of all the compilers, gamblers and public not needing much margin on this one? The answer is because it's liquid and fairly easy, in the crowds opinion, to get to the "right" price.

[doubleup]

Slybet doing a money back if Irving wins  the 3.15 at Kempton.  Even though it isn't best price, First Mohican a no brainier for those that can get on for £25.  Obviously not for thread, but Tikay waist deep in sticky buns at the moment.

They are saying this is a free bet not money back....

I thought I understood what money back meant.  Guess I should read the detail better.

Money Back Special

Sky Bet are proud sponsors of the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and to celebrate we’re offering money back if the favourite wins the 3.15 Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton this Saturday.

Simply place a win or each way bet on the race and if the favourite wins we’ll refund the win part of your stake as a free bet the same day.

Thanks for letting me know, I'd have probably missed it

I've IBAS'd as the last sentence wasn't on the banner.  The bet is only valid till 01/03 - they are best price Woods for the Masters if all else fails.

[Doobs]

Slybet doing a money back if Irving wins  the 3.15 at Kempton.  Even though it isn't best price, First Mohican a no brainier for those that can get on for £25.  Obviously not for thread, but Tikay waist deep in sticky buns at the moment.

They are saying this is a free bet not money back....

I thought I understood what money back meant.  Guess I should read the detail better.

Money Back Special

Sky Bet are proud sponsors of the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and to celebrate we’re offering money back if the favourite wins the 3.15 Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton this Saturday.

Simply place a win or each way bet on the race and if the favourite wins we’ll refund the win part of your stake as a free bet the same day.

Thanks for letting me know, I'd have probably missed it

I've IBAS'd as the last sentence wasn't on the banner.  The bet is only valid till 01/03 - they are best price Woods for the Masters if all else fails.

Hope it was just careless wording and not deliberate. I only do my betting accounts once a week at most, and as I wouldn't have been expecting it, it would have been so easy to miss. 

[BigAdz]

Bit of a Gold Cup write up for those interested.

Nada/gratis, free!!(just for Omm)

[Bad Beat]

Liked your Champion Chase write up Adz, will take a gander at the Gold Cup. Today I shall be mostly thinking about the Ryan Air.

[BigAdz]

Liked your Champion Chase write up Adz, will take a gander at the Gold Cup. Today I shall be mostly thinking about the Ryan Air.

Cheers Neil. Off to sunnier climes Weds so out of time for anymore big write ups. Look forward to your thoughts. GL!