Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

 I totally take your point about the artificial break and the fact that people want to have a punt when their liesure time is coming-up, but you are assuming that the leader is always the favourite. I think some of the best bets in golf come when the leader is somebody who was unconsidered before the 1st hole on Thursday.

 If we try and make bets during the third round of an event we will be competing mostly with pros, with bookmakers, with people who have better information (probably faster pictures).recreational gamblers we have a chance to win.

I did Neil just to put some context to the example I wanted to write. Having thought about it I can deffo think of situations where I have tried to get the leader in because I don't think he is likely to get me a  share of the natural turnover in that market. I deffo remember having Richard Finch as a complete skinner the year he won the Irish Open, the one that he fell into the river in when hitting his shot on the 18th.

He was leading by one overnight after going out on the third day and putting up a score that nobody got past, Westwood who was a bad result was just behind and a few other good names too. I set out to just get him in the book at around 8/1 as he was such a good result and didn't mind laying a bit and laid him ew to some good punters. So it is deffo true that when running the in play book there is a certain type of 'book management' I suppose is the best phrase to use, which is probably not optimal as a layer and  fits your description of where the value can be.


The point about fast pics is something I get asked about a bit and its a bit of a  misnomer really.

Its looked at the wrong way  round really. The pics that Sky show are deffo delayed, that is obvious by the betting but the pics that the firms use are still right behind the BF market. So they aren't too near live either.

It's of absolutely no benefit to the firms that the pics in this country are behind coz it just affects turnover but if you were betting into over 200 territories you would have to use the feed they were getting or you would get exploited and we did originally. So it isnt that there are fast pics ie quicker than the BF market, its that almost everyone in the world has faster pics than we get on the broadcaster in the UK. I have no idea why either.

[KarmaDope]

Jazz and Ruth out is tremendous news


Heaven knows who is voting (young girls, I assume)

Not entirely sure on this.

Tyler has his mountain of Twitter followers and also has all the Amy Winehouse fans behind him. It was enough to knock out the 2nd favourite after producing what has been panned as the worst performance last night online.

Between Tyler/Vince for me. Twitter tonight absolutely hated Bo and Leanne just hasn't got the popularity - she HAS to be the best to win next week.

[Josedinho]

I think you're underestimating how big it would be to in the tour. We always nick a few golds at the olympics.

I think you are underestimating how big the Olympics are going to be.

25,000 people turned up at Cheltenham racecourse to see Zara Phillips gallop by on a horse carrying a torch ffs.

Biggest sports event ever.

Wiggins wins Le Tour and Olympic Gold does he not become a player?

[MANTIS01]

Good evening Blondites. And what a fine evening it is.

[bobby1]

The natural break at the end of the day thing is interesting.

 I started posting these last few thoughts just to try and make the point that you can bet sports markets if you:

 b> Research better than the market makers.

 c> Take advantage of market anomolies.

 For those that missed my original post I was saying the thread was doing very well on b but that c is the area that interests me.

 You are right - in golf it is slightly odd that loads of turnover is at the start and loads after the third round and before the fourth. You nailed the reasons - people have a punt to watch it on TV.


 I like your idea of laying the favourite and then laying the new favourites along the way and I totally get it that if I back the 7/4 winner who takes a trip to 5/1 land I shouldn't be happy.

  
 The reason I think you are having a great time laying three or four people at 3/1 and under is definitely because people love to overbet momentum but it is probable that when Luke Donald, Phil Mickelson, Martin Kaymer or Lee Westwood join the lead and go 6/4 that they are terrible value.

I deffo get caught up in the momentum as a layer too sometimes and put things in too short for the firm at times, its not intentional but it does go down the route of ' I will lay this anyway' and then I actually miss out on getting them in. Which can happen in the heat of the event but is something I always reflect about afterwards.

As for your C example above 90% of my action this week was on pre tourney in Europe which turned out perfect and was as simple as checking the wind speeds on each day and realising there was likely to be an advantage. That doesnt always pan out as expected as 3-4 days forecast can change but even if you do the work and it turns out to be less of a factor and you have to work around it later then at least you have done the work and when it is bang on it is good.

so your b scenario made the c scenario possible.

[smashedagain]

Good evening Blondites. And what a fine evening it is.

Lol. What are you up too now? 

[MANTIS01]

That's right, Vincent Kidd has made the grand final of The Voice. We made it through the wilderness, we made it through, and we found love in a hopeless place.

Despite all the jibes from the russain granny fan club that 25/1 is now 7/4.

If this wins it will be the biggest coup in the thread and I promise I will never let Tikay forget it. Where is big favourite Jazz Ellington? Where is big favourite Ruth Brown? It was all about the popularity factor folks and with an 87k twitter army and backed by Jessie J's massive fan club our Vince is almost home. Your love is most definitely my love.

[bobby1]

 One thing that I don't think I have ever read on this thread, which should be mentioned, (although I'm certain lots of people here are aware of it), is that favourite money always comes late. People who bet odds-on or stake larger amounts always wait until the last minute - maybe they are waiting for previous bets to be settled, maybe they want to see the team news, weather or hear what the pundits are saying, but if you wish to back a favourite you should do it early, while outsiders will often drift late on. Another reason is that outsiders are often priced defensively and then when there isn't "live" money it is "safe" for the layers to drift them.

That does abs nail most markets on BF golf other than the drifting outsiders.

The golf market breaks down on BF the nearer the resumption of play time each day during an event. The layers take money down and the bettor's take the liquidity that is there, if I want to bet someone back that I have a possie on and want to change or make a new bet I always want to be on early. Conversely If I want to lay one I just hang around until it breaks down into smaller available amounts and the % in the book increases and hopefully my player will end up being available to lay shorter.

I think a certain amount of jostling goes on with traders too, all wanting to lay/back different results early in the day, then that fades away when they are on and the money available dwindles from then on on both sides.

 

[Tal]

That's right, Vincent Kidd has made the grand final of The Voice. We made it through the wilderness, we made it through, and we found love in a hopeless place.

Despite all the jibes from the russain granny fan club that 25/1 is now 7/4.

If this wins it will be the biggest coup in the thread and I promise I will never let Tikay forget it. Where is big favourite Jazz Ellington? Where is big favourite Ruth Brown? It was all about the popularity factor folks and with an 87k twitter army and backed by Jessie J's massive fan club our Vince is almost home. Your love is most definitely my love.

I hope you're right, Mantis! Vince would be marvellous but even Tyler would be a nice result.

Why is Bo now 8/5 favourite? Not really thought much of her this whole competition tbh

[bobby1]

Go mantis, go vincey boy.

The grannies fan club wishes you well.

[ACE2M]

Want to lay me a bet orkins? If wiggins wins the tour we'll have a bet at 8/1?

[Doobs]

Want to lay me a bet orkins? If wiggins wins the tour we'll have a bet at 8/1?

Hmm, 3/1 to win the Tour and 9/1 to win SPOTY.  Think he is a terrible price for the Tour and SPOTY, but still not laying

[The Camel]

Want to lay me a bet orkins? If wiggins wins the tour we'll have a bet at 8/1?

LOLZ nice try.

No thankyou, I'll decline this opportunity.

[T_Mar]

Loving the discussion bobby / channing... really interesting

[ACE2M]