Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Re the Scottish Junior Cup Final, Shotts are playing there 15th game in 28 days! 

Good grief!

No school, then?

[Bad Beat]

 Definitely interested to hear that last bit Phil. My own experience of that side of the fence came from working for small firms with one compiler where one guy would do golf, one rugby league, one motor racing etc. Most would do at least two sports and they would be accountable for the performance of that sport. The companies I worked for were spread firms so the punters could back and lay but what I remember was the traders "greening-up" to lock in a profit. Obviously these guys weren't total idiots - I rate the spread traders of that era as being the best odds-compilers of their time - but they would definitely lean towards locking-in a profit.

 In some sports it wasn't really possible to "green-up" as the punters wanted to lay the last round leader and you often got good value being with them.

 As an example of the behaviour of odds-compilers I would cite the pieces before big event finals where they do a grid with tips from the odds-compilers. They are often quoted as saying - "we need to lay these" or "we are top-price these as we haven't laid them". Surely if they are not thinking "these should be offered at 4/1 because mathematically they have a 16% chance of winning and we'd like a little bit of profit" then we as punters have an opportunity to win? (I totally accept that you can't always measuer accurately the "correct" price).

 Maybe golf wasn't a great example but I do remember from that time that the golf department did very well on the US golf every week and every single week they would end up with the leader on the last day and punters would clamour to lay them. "greening-up" was not possible unless you went "too big" and the golf dept came to accept that they were getting the best of it and they sat back to enjoy the vaiance.

 I totally take your point about the artificial break and the fact that people want to have a punt when their liesure time is coming-up, but you are assuming that the leader is always the favourite. I think some of the best bets in golf come when the leader is somebody who was unconsidered before the 1st hole on Thursday.

[redarmi]

  I totally take your point about the artificial break and the fact that people want to have a punt when their liesure time is coming-up, but you are assuming that the leader is always the favourite. I think some of the best bets in golf come when the leader is somebody who was unconsidered before the 1st hole on Thursday.

I think this is a much better approach to what you were initially suggesting Neil.  If someone like McIlroy or Mickelson is leading after 54 holes I would be fairly certain they aren't value almost without looking.  Similarly in bigger events I would be a little leery about backing someone who has never done it before (although price is always the most important factor) but a seasoned pro that was not thought about pre event (maybe because of a lack of course or recent form) has answered the main questions about him in the previous 54 holes and yet will often be too big still.  There is almost a system in there somewhere.

[Bad Beat]

 The natural break at the end of the day thing is interesting.

 I started posting these last few thoughts just to try and make the point that you can bet sports markets if you:

 a> Have inside information

 b> Research better than the market makers.

 c> Take advantage of market anomolies.

 For those that missed my original post I was saying the thread was doing very well on b but that c is the area that interests me.

 You are right - in golf it is slightly odd that loads of turnover is at the start and loads after the third round and before the fourth. You nailed the reasons - people have a punt to watch it on TV.

 This gives us a great chance. That means we are competing with non-professional money.

 If we try and make bets during the third round of an event we will be competing mostly with pros, with bookmakers, with people who have better information (probably faster pictures).recreational gamblers we have a chance to win.

 It is likely that the favourite will be overbet going into the last round as most players back the favourite. It is likely that tips from the Racing Post will have more influence on the market at that time - more of the money bet is recreational and will take notioce of those things.

 I like your idea of laying the favourite and then laying the new favourites along the way and I totally get it that if I back the 7/4 winner who takes a trip to 5/1 land I shouldn't be happy.

 Maybe I didn't make myself clear enough in the original post though. I like to back front-runners who are bigger prices. I love golf events where the three market leaders from Thursday are a shot behind the guy who was 150/1 on Thursday.

 The reason I think you are having a great time laying three or four people at 3/1 and under is definitely because people love to overbet momentum but it is probable that when Luke Donald, Phil Mickelson, Martin Kaymer or Lee Westwood join the lead and go 6/4 that they are terrible value.

 Just because you may get a chance to do that later that doesn't mean that laying Bill Haas at 6/1 when he is a shot clear is value.



 


 I

[Bad Beat]

 for some reason a bit got missed out there. I was saying that playing at the start of Sunday against the recreationals gives us a way better chance.

 One thing that I don't think I have ever read on this thread, which should be mentioned, (although I'm certain lots of people here are aware of it), is that favourite money always comes late. People who bet odds-on or stake larger amounts always wait until the last minute - maybe they are waiting for previous bets to be settled, maybe they want to see the team news, weather or hear what the pundits are saying, but if you wish to back a favourite you should do it early, while outsiders will often drift late on. Another reason is that outsiders are often priced defensively and then when there isn't "live" money it is "safe" for the layers to drift them.

 In the example of golf I agree with you Redarmi. I'm absolutely certain that Mickelson, Mcilroy or Westwood are not going to be value going into the last round 1 shot clear. Firstly it isn't possible that the odds-compilers underestimate their ability, secondly they will already have liabilities on them and thirdly the price may have the anticipation of late favourite money built in.

 It does mean that if Mr Journeyman pro is the joint -leader he'll be the one that is probably value (it's possible nobody will be value).

[Bad Beat]

 On the unnatural break thing I have a quirk of the market to mention...

 In high-profile football matches the prices in running are usually "correct". It isn't possible to have an edge on the rest of the world in Man Utd Man City just by saying "wow, City are playing well here". If you bet at 35 minutes you will be betting against professionals more than recreationals and it'll be hard (I would say impossible in the long run) to win. At half-time though the market will be hit by an influx of recreational money. These gamblers will prefer generally to back a positive result and in games where it is currently a draw you will find the draw will drift by a few ticks simply due to support for the 1 and 2 outcomes. By the start of the second half the algorythmns will take over again and all will return to "normal".

 If only Blatchly had stuck to that as a system.

[Teacake]

Scottish Junior Cup Final today.
Been told off an Auchinleck player to get on George Pope to score anytime at 13/2 with Paddys, seemingly he's a left back who takes the Pens.
Having a quick look at their latest Cup results he has scored in 2 of their last 4 games
Recommend £25 @13/2 George Pope  http://www.oddschecker.com/football/non-league/scottish-non-league/auchinleck-v-shotts-bon-accord/anytime-goalscorer
Auchinleck are 2/5 favs for the match and 7/2 to score from a Penalty.
I'm pretty sure our very own Rod Paradise will be at this match today so hopefully he's screaming for a Penalty when the Talbot get in the Box.
20/1 FGS if you fancy a Banzai.
Live coverage on BBC Alba at 4.05pm

The nick of time.......

That's as odd as they get, but we are scrambling around for a winner, somewhere, anywhere........

Paddy Power RESTRICTED me to £9. I checked all the other PP Goalscorer Markets, & all seem to be restricted.

Managed to get on with Wm Hill, but at a lesser price - 6/1. The prevailing wisdom is lesser price, lesser bet, so.....

We have £20 with Wm Hill @ 6/1, Popey to be ANYTIME. I've swerved the Banzai, times are hard...... In fact, I hope we missed a winner with the Banzai, as at least we'd win this.

Good luck, & thanks.

PS - Did you know there is a very famous book which shares your alias? About a VERY wise & wealthy chap, too.

ON

27 May 2012 - Auchinleck Talbot v Shotts Bon Accord - Anytime Goalscorer

Pope @ 6/1

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £140.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000016/F

No white smoke here I'm afraid.

[tikay]

Would like another opinion on this to back me up but like Boston Celtics +7.5 2.03 in first game versus Miami Heat in the NBA.  The last ten times these two teams have played Boston have won four of them and Bosh still isn't back although Haslem will be.  We can probably dismiss the game in Boston at the end of the season as fairly meaningless and Lebron and Wade sat but the Celtics were 7.5 point dogs at the AA Arena at the beginning of April and all the stars played and they won by 8.  Heat have an extra games rest but given the minutes Wade and LeBron are havig to put in they will need it as both are playing 35+ minutes a game and Lebron often putting up nearly 40 minutes court time and I would have thought fatigue will become an issue at some point.

There has been zero fedback on this, Red, & I have to go offline now, as stated this morning.

IF the match starts after midnight, I can still get on, if you get some positive feedback. (Or if you make a decision in the next few minutes).

It would be rather sweet to find an NBA winner, to be honest.....

[tikay]

Scottish Junior Cup Final today.
Been told off an Auchinleck player to get on George Pope to score anytime at 13/2 with Paddys, seemingly he's a left back who takes the Pens.
Having a quick look at their latest Cup results he has scored in 2 of their last 4 games
Recommend £25 @13/2 George Pope  http://www.oddschecker.com/football/non-league/scottish-non-league/auchinleck-v-shotts-bon-accord/anytime-goalscorer
Auchinleck are 2/5 favs for the match and 7/2 to score from a Penalty.
I'm pretty sure our very own Rod Paradise will be at this match today so hopefully he's screaming for a Penalty when the Talbot get in the Box.
20/1 FGS if you fancy a Banzai.
Live coverage on BBC Alba at 4.05pm

The nick of time.......

That's as odd as they get, but we are scrambling around for a winner, somewhere, anywhere........

Paddy Power RESTRICTED me to £9. I checked all the other PP Goalscorer Markets, & all seem to be restricted.

Managed to get on with Wm Hill, but at a lesser price - 6/1. The prevailing wisdom is lesser price, lesser bet, so.....

We have £20 with Wm Hill @ 6/1, Popey to be ANYTIME. I've swerved the Banzai, times are hard...... In fact, I hope we missed a winner with the Banzai, as at least we'd win this.

Good luck, & thanks.

PS - Did you know there is a very famous book which shares your alias? About a VERY wise & wealthy chap, too.

ON

27 May 2012 - Auchinleck Talbot v Shotts Bon Accord - Anytime Goalscorer

Pope @ 6/1

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £140.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000016/F

No white smoke here I'm afraid.

Owned, I've been trying to think of a Pope Pun all afternoon, & you nip in with that.

You are blessed.

[MereNovice]

Venus Williams has lost the first set of her round one match.
Her opponent is playing way above her ranking of 122 (although clay is her favourite surface).
Venus looks to be having one of her more fatigued days.

[TightEnd]

WI 61-6 overnight, a lead of 3

All being well, 2-0 tomorrow and we head to Edgbaston.

[ACE2M]

for SPOTY betting i have a decent bet on Bradley Wiggins. If he wins the Tour it will be huge and hes currently a fairly short priced fav.

[The Camel]

for SPOTY betting i have a decent bet on Bradley Wiggins. If he wins the Tour it will be huge and hes currently a fairly short priced fav.

Cannot see this myself.

Cyclists won 2 of the last 4, and it is still a minority interest sport.

A non Olympic year, fair enough.

But unless GB wins virtually nothing at London 2012, I can't see him getting enough votes to trouble Ennis, Farrah or whoever.

[Xpressman]

Having a Small Punt on Cheltenham Town to win Div 2 Playoff in 90 Min's at 3.5

Felt that manager Mark Yates has assembled a good experienced side, got a great result at torquay and have been solid most of the season.

Crewe were poor early season but have come up on the rails, to have a long unbeaten run ....

I suspect it may well be close but something tells me Cheltenham will come good i hope !!

Taking a chance on 90 Min's Result ... But on such a hot day neither side will fancy Extra time

£25 3.5 betfair for me.

Ian.

Want the good news, or the bad news?

OK, the bad first.

I forgot to put this on, sorry. Can't do afterrtiming either, so it's "no bet". I have a great excuse, but I won't bore you with it.

The good news? Cheltenham are currently 1-0 down.

God help me if they come back to win, but for your sake, I hope they do.

Sorry bud, but you might just have swerved the ignomoy of your first tip here being a dud. We have a tradition that all maiden bets are winners. Chompy is the only exception, & you know him well enough to know I speak the troof. 

Not a good debut i am afraid , glad you forgot to get on ....

Cheltenham Missed so many guilt chances , but failed to deliver .................

Rather got off to a winning start ... But hey ho sure i won't be the first or Last

Onwards and upwards !!

[ACE2M]

I think you're underestimating how big it would be to in the tour. We always nick a few golds at the olympics.