Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

97% hope and only 3% expectation, but I've had a little bit on Jürgen Klinsmann to be the next man to dive through the revolving door. Can't be having van Gaal at comedy odds on.

they want Pochettino, plus interpreter

10/1 at suitable outlets

Tilts me beyond belief that he doesn't even attempt English.

Like, yeah, yerknow, game of two halves, always tough here, boys give it everything...

[Tal]

97% hope and only 3% expectation, but I've had a little bit on Jürgen Klinsmann to be the next man to dive through the revolving door. Can't be having van Gaal at comedy odds on.

they want Pochettino, plus interpreter

10/1 at suitable outlets

Is this true?

Not convinced we would want such a marked change of style

[TightEnd]

Masters Tournament at Augusta - Outright Betting Write Up by @OllieNoonan1 just published on http://bettingemporium.com  FREE to all reg'd users.

this guy is good

for the thread, the bets are free. no spoiler risk so we are free to get on

can we please?

Not seen them, but if you think they are value, go ahead. Don't forget our existing positions, though.

Might pay to wait a day or two though, the Market won't move too much, presumably.

Will have some weather and injury news tomorrow, too, fingers crossed. The weather may well be a major factor, so maybe we should wait?

our current book is

24-Sep   BigAdz   Boylesports   Apr 2014   Golf   US Masters   Jordan Speith   66/1   40
19-Jan   doubleup   BetVictor   April-2014   Golf   US Masters   1st time winner   4/5   100
19-Mar   doubleup   BetVictor   April-2014   Golf   US Masters   1st time winner   8/11   110
21-Mar   BigAdz   Coral   April-2014   Golf   The Masters   Brandt Snedeker   50/1   10

i propose backing the other four in the article, as we are already on one of the five

but before i do, some knowledgeable golf people can tell me that they don't skew things too much with the above?

there are two former winners propsed, so that naturally offsets the doubleup bets

[doubleup]

We can reduce our BMU maiden winner liability with this

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/us-master-winners-v-non-us-master-winners

Unless I'm missing something they now think maiden winner is 1/5......

Non maiden ie former winner is 3-1 - I think its actually a touch shorter than that.

[Tal]

Fairly sure Kyle Naughton is challenging for the Assists title.

[doubleup]

So if we put £75 on the 3-1 we have bet £275

and get £300 back if a former winner

and £353 back if a maiden

and dosh freed up to back any other stuff

[arbboy]

We can reduce our BMU maiden winner liability with this

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/us-master-winners-v-non-us-master-winners

Unless I'm missing something they now think maiden winner is 1/5......

Non maiden ie former winner is 3-1 - I think its actually a touch shorter than that.

We have had £200 on a 1/5 shot now at slightly odds on.  This is well within bank roll limits given the edge we have.  I really don't see any reason to limit the liability just embrace the variance.  I know this was the initial plan but given the huge edge we know seem to have i don't really see the need to do this.  Seems a lovely spot to just let it roll unless the 3/1 former winner is actually value itself and we can have 2 max bets which provide us with no variance at all.

[Dubai]

I did say all this the other day.

[BigAdz]

For Team Maths, a question please.

With the propensity for people to tie places in golf is 35-1 1,2,3,4,5 better than 33-1,1,2,3,4,5,6?

[arbboy]

So if we put £75 on the 3-1 we have bet £275

and get £300 back if a former winner

and £353 back if a maiden

and dosh freed up to back any other stuff

The money won't be freed up to back other stuff. £75 extra will be tied up until Monday (this isn't a problem from a cash flow point of view).  Also backing both outcomes with the same bookmaker and effectively locking in a massive profit might create issues with the account life depending on the views of the traders involved.

[arbboy]

For Team Maths, a question please.

With the propensity for people to tie places in golf is 35-1 1,2,3,4,5 better than 33-1,1,2,3,4,5,6?

i would take the extra place given the tiny difference between the prices but given the number of dead heats for place terms i wouldn't be sure of the maths to back it up.

[doubleup]

Think the 3-1 is slight value seems to be about a 26% shot based on present odds - and also allows other bets without conflicts.  

Think having 8/11 and 4/5 about a 1/5 is going to RIP the account anyway......

[BigAdz]

For Team Maths, a question please.

With the propensity for people to tie places in golf is 35-1 1,2,3,4,5 better than 33-1,1,2,3,4,5,6?

i would take the extra place given the tiny difference between the prices but given the number of dead heats for place terms i wouldn't be sure of the maths to back it up.

TY. That was my gut feel, must admit.

Nice write up on the 1.01 stuff also. Learnt a bit there, ty.

[Doobs]

For Team Maths, a question please.

With the propensity for people to tie places in golf is 35-1 1,2,3,4,5 better than 33-1,1,2,3,4,5,6?

i would take the extra place given the tiny difference between the prices but given the number of dead heats for place terms i wouldn't be sure of the maths to back it up.

Definitely go for the extra place here.

TY. That was my gut feel, must admit.

Nice write up on the 1.01 stuff also. Learnt a bit there, ty.

[arbboy]

Think the 3-1 is slight value seems to be about a 26% shot based on present odds - and also allows other bets without conflicts.  

Think having 8/11 and 4/5 about a 1/5 is going to RIP the account anyway......

No chance the major reason for this is tiger not being there which has changed the price massively (not the only reason as the price was wrong as well to start with) plus its on a golf major for £200 on an odds on shot.  Would be amazed if victor's golf traders have even seen the bet never mind care about it.  Victor will have made far more than the £200 they owe you if your bet wins by the amount they will have hoovered on tiger ante post bets (i assume these are settled as losers - i never bet golf ante post but assume they are settled the same as horse racing ante post bets)