Tips for Tikay

[chemicaltoon]

Hi Tikay

Been holding off till I felt I had something useful to contribute, but guess now is as good as any to confirm my Ice Cream status. Guess I will post the last bet I have made and find out the thoughts of the experts.

Man U -1 v Norwich @ evens with B o y l e Sports

Reasoning
I really feel United will be going out to attack this game which Giggs has pretty much stated in press conferences, they will be free of Moyes negativity, and there should be some players that will be looking to perform who have not been able/selected in correct positions during the Moyes reign. I expect Old Trafford to be rocking tomorrow with there golden boy in charge of the club and for the first time this season everyone will be on the same page and I expect United to come out strong.

Concerns are that Norwich will be fighting for everything and managed to score a couple against Liverpool last week, but I feel that says more about the Liverpool defence/philosophy than the Norwich attack.

To clarify I am not a Man United fan, I'm a Newcastle fan (for my sins) and have firmly been in the ABU camp since King Kevs blow up all those years ago, but I just really fancy United this weekend.

I've been trying to understand how some of the others find value in the bets but still not 100% so not sure if the 'evens' represented value or not.

It didn't work out too well for Newcastle when we put the golden boy in charge a couple of years back, but hoping this is a different story

Looking forward to learning more from this brilliant thread

Kev

[horseplayer]

Nice Post Kev

Post more and good to see you post

[mondatoo]

Wonderful frame of snooker there, Joe Perry played great for 15 frames but just couldn't handle the pressure of the situation.

O'Sullivan couldn't really play much worse in that session and shared it.

[Tal]

Did you ask when Perry will go favourite Tal?...(now).

I dithered in the most dithersome way, yesterday, since Sir Dithery Ditheringham outdithered the Dither Twins to win the World Dithering Championship.

As I didn't press the green button last night, I can't now press the red one.

As Frankie Howerd almost said:

"Dither ye not!"

[arbboy]

Welcome Kev.  Glad you are enjoying the thread.

With regard to your bet its crucial to always make sure you get the very best price possible on any bet you place.  Backing Man U -1 on the 3 way hcap (with a draw so your bet loses if man u win by 1) is the same as backing them -1.5 on the asian hcap.  Bet365 are 11/10 man u -1.5 on their asian hcap.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-utd-v-norwich/asian-handicap

I have no real views on the bet as such as it's very hard to know what will happen at Old Trafford tomorrow but all the best if you back it but make sure you get the 11/10 at 365 rathen than evens with boyles.

[horseplayer]

Barcelona announce the death of Tito Vilanova at the age of 45

[Tal]

Remember a long time ago, when I tipped an outsider to win a chess tournament and he fell apart, finishing...well...last? His name was Teimur Radjabov. He's had a rough few years and has struggled to stay with the elite, sliding down the rankings from a lofty fourth.

Today, this happened:



Body language is pretty conclusive.

He beat the world champ, Magnus Carlsen, as black. No luck involved; Carlsen didn't throw the game away or get into time trouble. Beat him fair and square.

What's particularly remarkable is that Carlsen lost yesterday, too, to another of the elite players, Fabiano Caruana. It is the first time he has lost two consecutive games since 2010. That's a pretty impressive record.

[superwomble]

That rather depends upon how many games he has played since 2010 ;-)

[mulhuzz]

Tal, imagine Carlsen was playing his clone. Carlsen White vs Carlsen Black. Price it up pls? Interested to understand how much diff playing as Black as opposed to White makes....

[Bazzaboy]

Short of time so will keep it brief. Levedev to win on points at 19/10 Betway £30.

Lebedev lost last fight after suffering horrific eye injury in first round. Still ahead on the cards when stopped in 11th. Landed flush on Jones many times and he took them. Likely to take a more negative approach this time and win a points decision something like 117-111

[claypole]

Glued to Doherty v McManus, gripping stuff.....cheers Tighty

[Chompy]

Hi Tikay

Been holding off till I felt I had something useful to contribute, but guess now is as good as any to confirm my Ice Cream status. Guess I will post the last bet I have made and find out the thoughts of the experts.

Man U -1 v Norwich @ evens with B o y l e Sports

Reasoning
I really feel United will be going out to attack this game which Giggs has pretty much stated in press conferences, they will be free of Moyes negativity, and there should be some players that will be looking to perform who have not been able/selected in correct positions during the Moyes reign. I expect Old Trafford to be rocking tomorrow with there golden boy in charge of the club and for the first time this season everyone will be on the same page and I expect United to come out strong.

Concerns are that Norwich will be fighting for everything and managed to score a couple against Liverpool last week, but I feel that says more about the Liverpool defence/philosophy than the Norwich attack.

To clarify I am not a Man United fan, I'm a Newcastle fan (for my sins) and have firmly been in the ABU camp since King Kevs blow up all those years ago, but I just really fancy United this weekend.

I've been trying to understand how some of the others find value in the bets but still not 100% so not sure if the 'evens' represented value or not.

It didn't work out too well for Newcastle when we put the golden boy in charge a couple of years back, but hoping this is a different story

Looking forward to learning more from this brilliant thread

Kev

Welcome welcome Kev. Tradition dictates that you give your top five TfT faves, with a line on each. It's like an induction ritual.

[Tal]

Tal, imagine Carlsen was playing his clone. Carlsen White vs Carlsen Black. Price it up pls? Interested to understand how much diff playing as Black as opposed to White makes....

There is definitely an issue of competing styles of play, just as you get in football, rugby or any other 1 v 1 sport. That was part of the problem for Anand in the world championship: Carlsen nullified his opening preparation and outplayed him in the endgame.

As for the Player A v Player B model, here's some data:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-move_advantage_in_chess

I'd generally work off:

White win 2/1
Draw 6/4  
Black win 3/1

Obviously, there are lots of factors for each game, just as you get in anything else. Elite Some guys (at all levels) are draw merchants. If Anand plays Aronian, the draw will be 1/2. My club in Birmingham has a trophy for the player who had the most draws in a season: the Nickers Trophy (baddum tsh).

[Doobs]

Tal, imagine Carlsen was playing his clone. Carlsen White vs Carlsen Black. Price it up pls? Interested to understand how much diff playing as Black as opposed to White makes....

There is definitely an issue of competing styles of play, just as you get in football, rugby or any other 1 v 1 sport. That was part of the problem for Anand in the world championship: Carlsen nullified his opening preparation and outplayed him in the endgame.

As for the Player A v Player B model, here's some data:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-move_advantage_in_chess

I'd generally work off:

White win 2/1
Draw 6/4  
Black win 3/1

Obviously, there are lots of factors for each game, just as you get in anything else. Elite Some guys (at all levels) are draw merchants. If Anand plays Aronian, the draw will be 1/2. My club in Birmingham has a trophy for the player who had the most draws in a season: the Nickers Trophy (baddum tsh).

Love the underround.  Please open a shop soon. 

[Tal]

Tal, imagine Carlsen was playing his clone. Carlsen White vs Carlsen Black. Price it up pls? Interested to understand how much diff playing as Black as opposed to White makes....

There is definitely an issue of competing styles of play, just as you get in football, rugby or any other 1 v 1 sport. That was part of the problem for Anand in the world championship: Carlsen nullified his opening preparation and outplayed him in the endgame.

As for the Player A v Player B model, here's some data:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-move_advantage_in_chess

I'd generally work off:

White win 2/1
Draw 6/4  
Black win 3/1

Obviously, there are lots of factors for each game, just as you get in anything else. Elite Some guys (at all levels) are draw merchants. If Anand plays Aronian, the draw will be 1/2. My club in Birmingham has a trophy for the player who had the most draws in a season: the Nickers Trophy (baddum tsh).

Love the underround.  Please open a shop soon. 

Lol

I gave that as the rough guide. Behave! Haven't you got threes to raise to the sixth power? Where's your spider?