Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

if Worcestershire get through to the quarters, try stopping me!



so then, England Italy

the consensus is very strong..unders, the draw, cagey etc etc

the buffon news, and the patriotic money(?) means we can get italy at over 2/1, and overs at nearly 2/1


do we want to be contrarian?

we don't have to, of course, but the markets look quite skewed to me

we'd all be sipping pina coladas on the beach if consensuses like these were more often right than wrong....

[sonour]

Like Hughes at 7/2 for top Ascot jockey.

Not sure why Ryan is as short as 7/4 and Listen Jnr's chances will largely hinge on how Listen Snr does in the 2yo races.

On Tuesday Hughes rides a short-priced favourite in the first (Toronado, who could start odds-on), then has Sole Power (5/1) and Night Of Thunder (9/4), plus a couple of Hannon 2yos.

Pretty sure this price is only going one way between now and kick off and this should be ripe for a trade.

Recommend £200 @ 7/2 with Hillies, with a view to laying some back.

IN

Thank you

[tikay]

Love it when Tighty's in charge of the purse strings, bets placed with the MOF.

Need to raid the bottomless pit and load up the Betty account with four figures before Tuesday please. Trade to follow.

tikay.........

(there might be a flaw in your plan Chomps)

FFS......

Tighty, how much do we have in Betty, and how much do we need for this hare brained scheme?

Not sure if I can deposit on Betty from here, I suspect it will be blocked, but I can at least try, especially if we are only talking £10 or £15.

Let me know please.

Listen, what a perfect pain Chompy is.

[Omm]

Recommend Uruguay to win both halves £20 max with Coral @ 3-1 (4.0). 2.36 on bf and other best price is sky at 11/8. Not only do I think it's a good bet at the price maths wise but it's been tipped on talk sport and twitter a few times that I've heard. Pretty much everyone saying there's not much to Costa Rica. As Coral are doing the special offer unless there are reasons not to or disagreements from others I think Fred should bet it. Thoughts?

Doesn't sound bad, but is 3.85/4 on Betfair.   Not saying it is bad, it seems reasonable and if I hadn't just bet on the 1/2, I'd probably do it. Skuy prob mugging.

But...Surely if a bet is tipped up "everywhere", then we should look to get on the other side? Certainly would be a negative for me when looking for value.  I know nothing of Talksport World Cup tips, but if I were to make a guess if they were worth listening to or not, I don't think that would be a positive either.  

Thanks for the steer Doobs, understand the concept of getting on the other side for value if all the talk is for the bet, obviously with this one I was mistaken between HF/FT and to win both halves, price not so great against bf compared to what I was saying. Unfortunaly for me I'm on so hopefully they win both halves!!!! (At least it beat bf so a smidge of value)

[TightEnd]

Stale Price alert on the deriv markets of Group D winner market given the gamble on England.  No real opinion personally but England 9/4 hills and Urug 2/1 Coral/VCbet are both under on the machine (england more so than urug).

Recommend £40 England £20 Urug at those prices.

Add to this Italy not to qualify 2/1 corals £30 recommended

Italy to finish bottom of group 16/1 sbet £10 recommended

coral

Uruguay2/1Group D Markets - 13/07/2014
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£60.00
Single

Italy2/1Group D Markets - 13/07/2014
Stake £30.00
Estimated Return:£90.00
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Return: £150.00


sbet

        Bet Type: Single
            World Cup 2014 - Group D - To Finish Bottom World Cup 2014 - Group D - To Finish Bottom
                Italy 16/1
        Possible Payout 170.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    10.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 10.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 170.00 GBP

14 Jun 2014 - World Cup 2014 Group D - Group Winner - Group Winner
Tip It

England @ 9/4

Stake : £40.00
Estimated Returns : £
130.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0000982/F


explain the italy one if you get a mo please. price for first game has gone out, and we back them to finish bottom?

just a read across from the machine?

[TightEnd]

Love it when Tighty's in charge of the purse strings, bets placed with the MOF.

Need to raid the bottomless pit and load up the Betty account with four figures before Tuesday please. Trade to follow.

tikay.........

(there might be a flaw in your plan Chomps)

FFS......

Tighty, how much do we have in Betty, and how much do we need for this hare brained scheme?

Not sure if I can deposit on Betty from here, I suspect it will be blocked, but I can at least try, especially if we are only talking £10 or £15.

Let me know please.

Listen, what a perfect pain Chompy is.

we have £200 at 7/2 so i assume he wants to lay back that

account is a few hundred short of £1k, you go away, we get the account balance going up, the days of depositing are over and then along comes chompy.....

[exstream]

recomend £999 on italy due to overreaction to buffon out
draw no bet

[arbboy]

Stale Price alert on the deriv markets of Group D winner market given the gamble on England.  No real opinion personally but England 9/4 hills and Urug 2/1 Coral/VCbet are both under on the machine (england more so than urug).

Recommend £40 England £20 Urug at those prices.

Add to this Italy not to qualify 2/1 corals £30 recommended

Italy to finish bottom of group 16/1 sbet £10 recommended

coral

Uruguay2/1Group D Markets - 13/07/2014
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£60.00
Single

Italy2/1Group D Markets - 13/07/2014
Stake £30.00
Estimated Return:£90.00
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Return: £150.00


sbet

        Bet Type: Single
            World Cup 2014 - Group D - To Finish Bottom World Cup 2014 - Group D - To Finish Bottom
                Italy 16/1
        Possible Payout 170.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    10.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 10.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 170.00 GBP

14 Jun 2014 - World Cup 2014 Group D - Group Winner - Group Winner
Tip It

England @ 9/4

Stake : £40.00
Estimated Returns : £
130.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0000982/F


explain the italy one if you get a mo please. price for first game has gone out, and we back them to finish bottom?

just a read across from the machine?

all based on just logic of them more likely to finish bottom/not qualify etc etc based on the fact they are less likely to gain a win tonight than they were when those prices were compiled.  Obviously the markets could be bias towards weight of mug money for england but all 4 selections are substantially shorter on bf.  I would imagine 3 figure sums asking for 14/1 on italy to finish bottom are relatively shrewd as opposed to mug cash from england fans.

[TightEnd]

BREAKING: Raheem Sterling STARTS for England #ENG

hellllllllllllllllllllllllllloooooooooooooooooo

[TightEnd]

ok

Hart/Johnson Cahill Jagielka Baines/Gerrard Henderson/Lallana Sterling Rooney/Sturridge

reports suggest sterling as No 10 with Rooney out wide

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/england-v-italy/anytime-goalscorer

BV 15/2 is stale, and probably doesn't reflect he is the middle of the 3 in 4-2-3-1

[TightEnd]

hold on, different reports now.

[TightEnd]

no, ok

welbeck plays for lallana


its one way to get a too high post count higher i suppose

[TightEnd]

recomend £999 on italy due to overreaction to buffon out
draw no bet

as i said earlier, i need a consensus on this

do we want to play on this match, or not?

italy 21/20 DNB
Italy 21/10 outright
over 2.5 13/8

are all prices that have drifted all day.

the draw is 2/1
under 2.5 is 4/7
0-0 is 13/2 2nd favourite!

v strong market view

[TightEnd]

back at half time.

[Doobs]

recomend £999 on italy due to overreaction to buffon out
draw no bet

as i said earlier, i need a consensus on this

do we want to play on this match, or not?

italy 21/20 DNB
Italy 21/10 outright
over 2.5 13/8

are all prices that have drifted all day.

the draw is 2/1
under 2.5 is 4/7
0-0 is 13/2 2nd favourite!

v strong market view

That isn't a formation for someone settling for a 0-0?