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Ironside
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« Reply #80625 on: June 18, 2014, 01:41:46 PM » |
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tighty Leicester run pretty bad with their first 5 fixtures in the EPL pulling 5 top 10 sides.
Everton (h)
Chelsea (a)
Arsenal (h)
Stoke (a)
Man U (h)
that is true run well at the back end fixtures 3 of the last 4 at home none of the last 8 against last year's top six could and should be a dicey start though, anything much out of the first five games a decided bonus can spin it either way...prefer the tough games early and not have the finish norwich had last season or need a good start or else its a long haul from early Conversely to Leics, Stoke seem to have been given a dream start to the season only facing Man City (a) out of the top 7 from last season in their first 10 EPL games. 13/5 they finish in the top 10 with bwin is massively out of line with every other firm. (assume fred can still get on with bwin). Would be happy to adopt a chompy style 'back to lay' policy given the scheduling edge we should have. There is no reason at all to think Stoke should regress next season from their 9th place finish. They have already made 3 solid squad signings this summer already and look highly likely to maintain the core of their squad from last season with key centre half Robert Huth set to return from a season ending injury last year after missing the vast majority of last season. Soton look certain to regress with their key players/gaffer leaving and take a huge % out of this market once we bypass the top 7. Think it's pretty certain the top 7 will be fixed from last season so 3 places to play for. Should declare my interest as a Stoke fan here but this never affects my vision when investing cash. saints have got a fixture list very similar to last seasons all dependant on who we keep and who we sell and bring in and when we could be in top 6 again when transfer window closes to slip down when tough games come in, I really like Man U fixtures to start with could have them top of the league with very few points dropped |
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lend me a beer and I'll lend you my ear
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arbboy
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« Reply #80627 on: June 18, 2014, 01:49:32 PM » |
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http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/womens-wimbledon/winnerQuestion for Hector. Stephens v Wozniacki 2nd round eastbourne. Stephens is 25/1 general for wimb Wozn 150/1. Why was Wozn 8/13 to beat stephens today on grass? It just seemed totally illogical to me and i was forced to have an interest.
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« Last Edit: June 18, 2014, 01:51:46 PM by arbboy »
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #80628 on: June 18, 2014, 01:55:44 PM » |
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Hi Arb - it's because of the head to head record. Woz leads 4-0 and 8 sets to 0. So it would appear that while Stephens more likely to win Wimbledon outright, if they face each other it is a bad match up against Wozniacki. |
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arbboy
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« Reply #80629 on: June 18, 2014, 01:57:54 PM » |
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Hi Arb - it's because of the head to head record. Woz leads 4-0 and 8 sets to 0. So it would appear that while Stephens more likely to win Wimbledon outright, if they face each other it is a bad match up against Wozniacki. I dont buy head to head records generally as they are so meaningless in general. Sample sizes are tiny and surfaces on courts differ so much plus the matches being played at diff peak periods of different players careers. For example Henman had a 5-0 h2h with federer but it was meaningless as federer was 20 at the time. |
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #80630 on: June 18, 2014, 02:14:42 PM » |
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Perhaps - but many people weight them highly in tennis. Given that tennis is such an isolation sport and match ups are so key between opponents, I think even with relatively small samples the oddsmakers (or guys on betfair in any case) hold them in high regard.
And looking at the HTH in this case closer some of the wins have been absolute hammerings by Wozniacki. Admittedly Stephens is a player on the up, and Wozniacki possibly is on the wane it looks like something really works for Woz in this match up.
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #80631 on: June 18, 2014, 02:16:05 PM » |
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On the surfaces I don't think they are that different anymore. Clay is a specialist surface but most of the others hold up to comparison.
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arbboy
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« Reply #80632 on: June 18, 2014, 02:16:43 PM » |
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could u post the 4 matches between them from their head to head records or a link for them so i can see the surface/date of the match etc?
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #80633 on: June 18, 2014, 02:23:15 PM » |
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2011 Woz wins 6-3 6-2 on hard at Indian Wells
2013 Woz wins 7-6 6-2 on hard at New Haven
2013 Woz wins 6-3 6-1 on hard at Beijing
2014 Woz wins 6-1 6-0 on hard at Miami
The odds Woz went off at in these matches (most recent first) 1.95, 1.56, 1.64, 1.01
So I guess the 2011 meeting is an irrelevant given that Woz was a 1.01 shot (not sure Woz would ever go off 1.01 to be honest but it was certainly early in Stephens career).
Think the last 3 meetings hold some water though as a form guide.
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arbboy
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« Reply #80634 on: June 18, 2014, 02:29:30 PM » |
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cheers this was a pure 'interest' bet inbetween PMQ's and ascot starting!!!!!! Just made no sense to me. I get your point but i don't understand how it can be that important (none of the four games were on the surface today - grass) to make a girl who is 4 times more likely to win wimbledon that the other to then be twice as likely to lose today than win?? I assume the wimbledon ante post market is a reasonably strong guide to the top 50 players ability to play on grass. Win or lose i am happy with the bet.
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #80635 on: June 18, 2014, 02:34:27 PM » |
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Another factor I thought might be worth considering, was whether Wozniacki had a terrible record against the really top players, and the outright market didn't think she had it in her to win a big semi final/final back to back. But that's not really the case. She's got wins against Serena and Sharapova, and a good record against Azarenka.
This debate has started to talk me into throwing a bit of loose change on Wozniacki at 150-1 now for Wimbledon.
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arbboy
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« Reply #80636 on: June 18, 2014, 02:36:49 PM » |
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I have already had more than small change on her before i started the debate!!!
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Chompy
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« Reply #80637 on: June 18, 2014, 02:38:10 PM » |
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King Of Eden now 4-1 favourite. Trigg knew!!!
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
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arbboy
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« Reply #80638 on: June 18, 2014, 02:39:28 PM » |
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GSM WOZ get the 150/1 before it goes!!!!!! h2h records ftw!!
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TightEnd
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« Reply #80639 on: June 18, 2014, 02:43:10 PM » |
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Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake
Payout
Liability
Richard Hughes 2.76 £39.97 £70.34
so around £40 match, rest cancelled before the first race
awaiting chompy instructions later in the day
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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Author