Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

£10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Tour De France 2014
Tour De France 2014 Team Classification
   Team Katusha    25/1   
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 260.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 260.00

betfred
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50/1
Jesus Herrada
2014 Tour de France
Singles - Young Rider Classification
1 line @ £5.00 per line
Total Stake £5.00
Potential Return £255.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000634

ladbrokes

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        Bet Type: Single
            Top 10 Finish Top 10 Finish - Outright Winner
                Jesus Herrada Lopez 33/1
        Possible Payout 170.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    5.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 5.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 170.00 GBP

sportingbet

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FDJ
500/1Team Classification - 27/07/2014
£2.50 Each Way
1/3 1,2
Stake £5.00
Estimated Return:£1671.67
Total Stake: £5.00
Potential Return: £1671.67

coral

[TightEnd]

"Since Fred already has Tanel Kangert at 14/1, I suggest adding lightly to the portfolio with a small bet on Herrada for Top 10 @ 33/1 and Young Rider @ 40/1"

I don't recognise any bet on Tanel Kangert, so if it was put up and i missed it sorry. or maybe it was placed and i didn't admin it, not sure

[arbboy]

Can someone explain to me why Wilko will win SPOTY for the 2nd time just because he is retiring?  I just don't get it at all?

[Tonji]

"Since Fred already has Tanel Kangert at 14/1, I suggest adding lightly to the portfolio with a small bet on Herrada for Top 10 @ 33/1 and Young Rider @ 40/1"

I don't recognise any bet on Tanel Kangert, so if it was put up and i missed it sorry. or maybe it was placed and i didn't admin it, not sure

Hi Tighty,

It's not a fred bet, I mentioned it on Cycling thread as one of my bets.

[Karabiner]

Surely there is absolutely zero chanc of Poults not getting a pick even if he does not qualify for the RC by right.

I think he would deffo be strong fav to get a pick Ralph, tho its a pretty good year for some of the younger guys or a Gallagher/ Jiminez type to get a pick. Westy would be the worry for me as his current game wouldn't seem ideal for pairs events given his short game and putting are still poor. Do you think Jiminez would be a good pick mate?

I doubt Miguel will need to be a pick Phil, I was assuming that he's in already as he seems to have been so consistent, but I've not seen the rankings lately.

Poults would be my #1 pick bar none as he playes better in the RC than anyone.

[Ironside]

Surely there is absolutely zero chanc of Poults not getting a pick even if he does not qualify for the RC by right.

I think he would deffo be strong fav to get a pick Ralph, tho its a pretty good year for some of the younger guys or a Gallagher/ Jiminez type to get a pick. Westy would be the worry for me as his current game wouldn't seem ideal for pairs events given his short game and putting are still poor. Do you think Jiminez would be a good pick mate?

I doubt Miguel will need to be a pick Phil, I was assuming that he's in already as he seems to have been so consistent, but I've not seen the rankings lately.

Poults would be my #1 pick bar none as he playes better in the RC than anyone.

i put the rankings and moved the topic over to the golf thread so not to clutter this thread as there is along way to go
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=62974.315

[Tal]

Can someone explain to me why Wilko will win SPOTY for the 2nd time just because he is retiring?  I just don't get it at all?

Firstly, it's reliant on Mr Grumpy not driving as well as Rosberg this year. We all seem to agree there.

As to the main question, this isn't a "value" answer, but it is my opinion:

- If nothing spellbindingly impressive happens in the next five months, the press will still need to hype up SPOTY.
-The press have a big influence on the outcome. I don't believe McCoy would have won without the hype he got in the build up.
- Who are they going to be writing articles about? They've done Froome already but, IMO, to some small minded folk, he's not British enough compared to Sir Wiggo, he doesn't get on with Sir Wiggo, and the TdF hoodoo has been broken anyway. Two of them have won recently, after all.
- Step up the man everyone loves. He doesn't fall out of bars at all hours, doesn't get caught with his pants down, doesn't have any unusual blood samples, hasn't made disparaging remarks about other parts of the UK.
- He has done something pretty impressive this year in winning the double, including back to back European cups.
- If you don't believe the SPOTY can be won by someone who has achieved nothing enormously special other than continuing to do what they do, who is only getting the award because the press told the public to vote for them, explain Ryan Giggs.

Look at the stuff that gets written about Wilko:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/european-rugby/10855293/Jonny-Wilkinson-remains-humble-to-the-end-after-inspiring-Toulon-to-second-consecutive-Heineken-Cup.html

What a guy.

I obviously could be a mile wide of the mark, but the more I think about it, the more logic it seems to make to me.

[mulhuzz]

Can someone explain to me why Wilko will win SPOTY for the 2nd time just because he is retiring?  I just don't get it at all?

Won the league and European Cup in a year nobody else has done anything of huge standout note?

Plus he's well liked as a human in general.

[Tal]

That said, in a couple of weeks, I might be trying to get a price on CheapWetSuit...

[arbboy]

Can someone explain to me why Wilko will win SPOTY for the 2nd time just because he is retiring?  I just don't get it at all?

Firstly, it's reliant on Mr Grumpy not driving as well as Rosberg this year. We all seem to agree there.

As to the main question, this isn't a "value" answer, but it is my opinion:

- If nothing spellbindingly impressive happens in the next five months, the press will still need to hype up SPOTY.
-The press have a big influence on the outcome. I don't believe McCoy would have won without the hype he got in the build up.
- Who are they going to be writing articles about? They've done Froome already but, IMO, to some small minded folk, he's not British enough compared to Sir Wiggo, he doesn't get on with Sir Wiggo, and the TdF hoodoo has been broken anyway. Two of them have won recently, after all.
- Step up the man everyone loves. He doesn't fall out of bars at all hours, doesn't get caught with his pants down, doesn't have any unusual blood samples, hasn't made disparaging remarks about other parts of the UK.
- He has done something pretty impressive this year in winning the double, including back to back European cups.
- If you don't believe the SPOTY can be won by someone who has achieved nothing enormously special other than continuing to do what they do, who is only getting the award because the press told the public to vote for them, explain Ryan Giggs.

Look at the stuff that gets written about Wilko:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/european-rugby/10855293/Jonny-Wilkinson-remains-humble-to-the-end-after-inspiring-Toulon-to-second-consecutive-Heineken-Cup.html

What a guy.

I obviously could be a mile wide of the mark, but the more I think about it, the more logic it seems to make to me.

OK 3 people have won more than 1 SPOTY in history. Hill, Mansell and Cooper.  No one in the past 18 years either since Sky sports became totally dominant in TV sport.  I respect what Wilkinson has achieved in sport as part of a very successful England team mainly.  He has achieved very little relatively compared to the 2 people you are comparing him to in the greatest jockey ever by a mile and Giggs (the most successful modern day footballer in English football trophy wise/appearance wise for one huge club and sheer length of career at the very top of the game).  Whatever Wilko has achieved in his Sport to even compare his success to AP or Giggs is just insane.  The idea that he would be awarded a 2nd SPOTY basically for winning a league and cup double in a foreign country in a minority sport upon his retirement is surely close to impossible?

[Ironside]

I doubt very much wilkinson will get a nomination

Have to agree with arbboy

[arbboy]

Maybe i am missing something but if you had asked me without looking at oddschecker to quote Wilko (given he has already won SPOTY at the pinnacle of his career) i would have happily quoted you 100/1+ given he has faded away from the UK scene and retired this year and how unlikely it is in the modern world to win SPOTY more than once.

[Tal]

Lol @ "insane". It's only an opinion and, apparently, it isn't just mine. I don't think more people in the UK have heard of McCoy than Wilkinson. As explained, it's all down to the press; if they want him, they'll push him and Joe Voter will follow. If they don't, far less likely.

For the last few years, there have been individual successes in sport, usually more than one. If there's going to be a double winner, it is going to be this year.

He doesn't have to be better than Giggs or McCoy (I'd have to take issue with the argument there's a huge distance between their achievements but that's an argument for another day); he just has to be more popular than Froome, Hamilton, Froch and a load of people you wouldn't back with Simon Deadman's money.

[tikay]

Can someone explain to me why Wilko will win SPOTY for the 2nd time just because he is retiring?  I just don't get it at all?

I think you are completely missing the point, or at least, my point.

It's not that I think he will win, or is necessarily more deserving than others.

It's because, when you look at this market....


http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner


....especially after taking out (imo) MardyArse who I believe is wayyyyy too short, & thus distorting the prices, it is really tough to see who CAN win it. There IS value somewhere in those prices. There has to be, logically. But who? 

Lets phrase it in a different way.

Forget Wilko, fine.

So, tell me where or who the value is.

I've read that list more times than enough, & I can't see where it is.

It's a thin year, an abnormally thin year, & won't take much winning.

I much respected the view of bobby, as to why it is hard for a golfer to win it. However, in a soft SPOTY, & if Europe were to steamroller USA, would Paul McGinley not be a consideration? (He's not even quoted).  

Interesting debate, even though it revolved around SPOTY, which I last watched the year Princess Anne won it. Must have been at least 10 years ago, maybe 12.

[tikay]

Message for cheapwetsauit

That was a terrififc popst, & now we have some lovely TdF sweats at very little cost. Can't beat that sort of thing, much fun will ensue, thank you.