Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Simple answer IMO is supply and demand. These are not balanced in unique one off situations like this. I know at least five punters who have backed Rory ore event who have put up a lay of him at 1/5 overnight without a care in the world what price they are laying and if they hadn't backed him pre event they wouldn't be laying a copper coin of him today at 1/5 as they haven't got a clue whether it's a good bet or not and some would argue given that they are on at 20/1 and can lock in hundreds risk free for their once a year golf bet why would they care?. There will be numerous thousands of others like these guys this morning and they are all competing against each other forcing the betfair price to remain much higher than it should be.

The instant reaction from three posters on this thread also helps to explain why there is an imbalance in suplply and demand in this spot.

I do know I'm wrong, by the bye, but it's just something I would not get much satisfaction or enjoyment from doing. As a recreational punter, making a little bit of money, & enjoying myself is all that matters.

Think if I backed a 1-5 shot, even if it were value, it'd stress me out if the wheels went a bit wobbly.

 

9 months of Stress from the 2/7 Watford bet one feels!!!

Oddly, I rather enjoyed that, the sheer ability to snatch defeat from victory week after week.

[BigAdz]

Simple answer IMO is supply and demand. These are not balanced in unique one off situations like this. I know at least five punters who have backed Rory ore event who have put up a lay of him at 1/5 overnight without a care in the world what price they are laying and if they hadn't backed him pre event they wouldn't be laying a copper coin of him today at 1/5 as they haven't got a clue whether it's a good bet or not and some would argue given that they are on at 20/1 and can lock in hundreds risk free for their once a year golf bet why would they care?. There will be numerous thousands of others like these guys this morning and they are all competing against each other forcing the betfair price to remain much higher than it should be.

The instant reaction from three posters on this thread also helps to explain why there is an imbalance in suplply and demand in this spot.

I don't disagree with one iota of this, but as you say the once a year/irregular punter will want to shore up his bet. I expect most people on here have laid a price knowing in "value" terms its wrong, but are keen to realize some profit, even if it is reduced.

I think if people were betting all day every day, like you do, then they would get to grips with variance and let it ride.


Most people bet for a bit of fun and i get far more fun punting £50 ew on a 16-1 shot than laying out £100 to potentially win £20, maybe because i dont need it. Now if I had to bet £1000 every time I punted, the game changes entirely and Im the layer. Pretty sure most "mug" punters would be the same. Great for you though.

[BigAdz]

Collecting Postcards doesn't look to be a young mans game.

Expected to see Tal in the pictures.......

Will Rory win it today, & if so, can you predict how many he will win by today, Adzy?

And who will come though the pack with the inevitable & usual late rattle?

I like that Dustin isn't out with Rory. He obviously lost any mind games battle yesterday, and once he wilted you could see how it helped Rory gain momentum.

If he can get off to a real flier, I would love to see how Rory handles some real pressure. Sadly I suspect not. and once the initial nerves subside Rory could wizz away for a 10 shot plus victory.

If the blades behind really go for it, I would see one -paced Jim Furyk staying on gradually for a place, or V-Dub posting a flashy finish. Just hope its not all over by 3.30.

[arbboy]

Ladbrokes have been crowing all week to anyone who would listen that Rory is their biggest loser by a mile.  I agree Rose would be another awful result but Rory would surely be in the top 5 worse results for every firm (hence the stupid 1/25 current quote - why don't they go 1/7 (top price on oddschecker) and whatever they lay to 'semi sharp oddschecker mugs' just punt back on bf or their own exchange betdaq at 2/9-1/5).  I am really amazed the biggest price with the firms is 1/8 on oddschecker even though it's probably the right price because they could so easily lay a £20k/£140k to a semi sharp oddschecker top price mug and just shift £100k of it onto bf and have a £40k freeroll.

When was the last time someone saw a huge sporting event with 6 figure liquidity either side of one spot on betfair (1.2/1.21) here and the top price anywhere in the world with an oddschecker bookies was 1.125 (1/8).  If this doesn't show you how 'full' they are of Rory nothing will.

[Tal]

Ladbrokes have been crowing all week to anyone who would listen that Rory is their biggest loser by a mile.  I agree Rose would be another awful result but Rory would surely be in the top 5 worse results for every firm (hence the stupid 1/25 current quote - why don't they go 1/7 (top price on oddschecker) and whatever they lay to 'semi sharp oddschecker mugs' just punt back on bf or their own exchange betdaq at 2/9-1/5).  I am really amazed the biggest price with the firms is 1/8 on oddschecker even though it's probably the right price because they could so easily lay a £20k/£140k to a semi sharp oddschecker top price mug and just shift £100k of it onto bf and have a £40k freeroll.

When was the last time someone saw a huge sporting event with 6 figure liquidity either side of one spot on betfair (1.2/1.21) here and the top price anywhere in the world with an oddschecker bookies was 1.125 (1/8).  If this doesn't show you how 'full' they are of Rory nothing will.

You can see the reason for my question, then?!

[Chompy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/weather/hottest-month

Dear Graham,
 
Thank you for your email.
 
July has been the hottest so far this year.
 
It is looking like this trend of warm weather will continue into August, but it is hard to predict this with much certainty.
 
It also depends on your location within the UK.
 
Please see our 'Outlook' Forecasts for the UK below:
 
Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Jul 2014 to Saturday 2 Aug 2014:
The far northwest of the UK will be breezy with a risk of some rain at the start of this period and this may be heavy at times. However, elsewhere there will be a lot of dry weather with sunny periods and just scattered showers. This northwest-southeast split in the weather is expected to continue, with Atlantic frontal systems bringing periods of more prolonged rain at times to the west and northwest, whereas elsewhere it will generally remain drier and sunnier, though even here, some showers are possible at times. Temperatures are likely to remain warm or very warm, perhaps becoming hot again for a time in the southeast. In the northwest, temperatures will probably be nearer to average.

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Aug 2014 to Sunday 17 Aug 2014:
At the start of the period, the favoured scenario is for northern and western parts to be affected by spells of rain at times whilst southern, eastern and central regions have the best chance of more prolonged fine weather, though even here some rain or showers are possible. With time, it looks likely that all areas will turn generally more unsettled although there will still be some drier and brighter interludes. Despite this, there is a signal for temperatures remaining warm, with some muggy nights to come. Towards the end of the period, the weather looks likely to become more settled again with some dry, fine and sunny conditions. It also looks likely to be warm, especially in the north and east.

(Issued at: 0500 on Sun 20 Jul 2014)
 
I hope this information has helped.
 
Kind regards,
 
Lawrence

Weather Desk Advisor

Yuh, whatevs Larry, July is buying money, oi oi!

Rec £130 @ 8/13 with WillHill

[tikay]

Tighty,

I think, maybe once a week or something, you might consider doing the Daily Report in the style of a Fred regular.

Start with, say, Argueboy, Lord Grumpy, or Team Maths.

It'd be incred.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/weather/hottest-month

Dear Graham,
 
Thank you for your email.
 
July has been the hottest so far this year.
 
It is looking like this trend of warm weather will continue into August, but it is hard to predict this with much certainty.
 
It also depends on your location within the UK.
 
Please see our 'Outlook' Forecasts for the UK below:
 
Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Jul 2014 to Saturday 2 Aug 2014:
The far northwest of the UK will be breezy with a risk of some rain at the start of this period and this may be heavy at times. However, elsewhere there will be a lot of dry weather with sunny periods and just scattered showers. This northwest-southeast split in the weather is expected to continue, with Atlantic frontal systems bringing periods of more prolonged rain at times to the west and northwest, whereas elsewhere it will generally remain drier and sunnier, though even here, some showers are possible at times. Temperatures are likely to remain warm or very warm, perhaps becoming hot again for a time in the southeast. In the northwest, temperatures will probably be nearer to average.

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Aug 2014 to Sunday 17 Aug 2014:
At the start of the period, the favoured scenario is for northern and western parts to be affected by spells of rain at times whilst southern, eastern and central regions have the best chance of more prolonged fine weather, though even here some rain or showers are possible. With time, it looks likely that all areas will turn generally more unsettled although there will still be some drier and brighter interludes. Despite this, there is a signal for temperatures remaining warm, with some muggy nights to come. Towards the end of the period, the weather looks likely to become more settled again with some dry, fine and sunny conditions. It also looks likely to be warm, especially in the north and east.

(Issued at: 0500 on Sun 20 Jul 2014)
 
I hope this information has helped.
 
Kind regards,
 
Lawrence

Weather Desk Advisor

Yuh, whatevs Larry, July is buying money, oi oi!

Rec £130 @ 8/13 with WillHill

Is this just which indidivual day will have the hottest recorded temp?  Or a monthly average from the London weather centre?

[Doobs]

Was trying to find a story to check the Rory odds pre event at Ladbrokes, and it said they were 10/1.  If they have got a pasting, Betfair Sportsbook's book on the event should be fun reading.

[arbboy]

Simple answer IMO is supply and demand. These are not balanced in unique one off situations like this. I know at least five punters who have backed Rory ore event who have put up a lay of him at 1/5 overnight without a care in the world what price they are laying and if they hadn't backed him pre event they wouldn't be laying a copper coin of him today at 1/5 as they haven't got a clue whether it's a good bet or not and some would argue given that they are on at 20/1 and can lock in hundreds risk free for their once a year golf bet why would they care?. There will be numerous thousands of others like these guys this morning and they are all competing against each other forcing the betfair price to remain much higher than it should be.

The instant reaction from three posters on this thread also helps to explain why there is an imbalance in suplply and demand in this spot.

But don't the layers in this spot tend to be more aggressive than the bettors? Or is that just perception?

Layers both on betfair and the firms (the firms more so) are more aggressive when they have plenty of 'green' to play with and it suits to be aggro.  The vast majority of layers on betfair for Rory are being aggressive because it suits them to be as they are playing with the firm's money who in turn have no green to play with and are being ultra defensive.

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/weather/hottest-month

Dear Graham,
 
Thank you for your email.
 
July has been the hottest so far this year.
 
It is looking like this trend of warm weather will continue into August, but it is hard to predict this with much certainty.
 
It also depends on your location within the UK.
 
Please see our 'Outlook' Forecasts for the UK below:
 
Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Jul 2014 to Saturday 2 Aug 2014:
The far northwest of the UK will be breezy with a risk of some rain at the start of this period and this may be heavy at times. However, elsewhere there will be a lot of dry weather with sunny periods and just scattered showers. This northwest-southeast split in the weather is expected to continue, with Atlantic frontal systems bringing periods of more prolonged rain at times to the west and northwest, whereas elsewhere it will generally remain drier and sunnier, though even here, some showers are possible at times. Temperatures are likely to remain warm or very warm, perhaps becoming hot again for a time in the southeast. In the northwest, temperatures will probably be nearer to average.

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Aug 2014 to Sunday 17 Aug 2014:
At the start of the period, the favoured scenario is for northern and western parts to be affected by spells of rain at times whilst southern, eastern and central regions have the best chance of more prolonged fine weather, though even here some rain or showers are possible. With time, it looks likely that all areas will turn generally more unsettled although there will still be some drier and brighter interludes. Despite this, there is a signal for temperatures remaining warm, with some muggy nights to come. Towards the end of the period, the weather looks likely to become more settled again with some dry, fine and sunny conditions. It also looks likely to be warm, especially in the north and east.

(Issued at: 0500 on Sun 20 Jul 2014)
 
I hope this information has helped.
 
Kind regards,
 
Lawrence

Weather Desk Advisor

Yuh, whatevs Larry, July is buying money, oi oi!

Rec £130 @ 8/13 with WillHill

Brilliant!

Be a real sweat, too. Literally.

Over to Tighty.

[arbboy]

Was trying to find a story to check the Rory odds pre event at Ladbrokes, and it said they were 10/1.  If they have got a pasting, Betfair Sportsbook's book on the event should be fun reading.

I was just going on the main racing post back page golf story yday regarding the ladbrokes position.  If you add the fact they are 1/25 about a 1/5 shot on bf it kinda stacks up (albeit stupid trading)

[Tal]

Simple answer IMO is supply and demand. These are not balanced in unique one off situations like this. I know at least five punters who have backed Rory ore event who have put up a lay of him at 1/5 overnight without a care in the world what price they are laying and if they hadn't backed him pre event they wouldn't be laying a copper coin of him today at 1/5 as they haven't got a clue whether it's a good bet or not and some would argue given that they are on at 20/1 and can lock in hundreds risk free for their once a year golf bet why would they care?. There will be numerous thousands of others like these guys this morning and they are all competing against each other forcing the betfair price to remain much higher than it should be.

The instant reaction from three posters on this thread also helps to explain why there is an imbalance in suplply and demand in this spot.

But don't the layers in this spot tend to be more aggressive than the bettors? Or is that just perception?

Layers both on betfair and the firms (the firms more so) are more aggressive when they have plenty of 'green' to play with and it suits to be aggro.  The vast majority of layers on betfair for Rory are being aggressive because it suits them to be as they are playing with the firm's money who in turn have no green to play with and are being ultra defensive.

Fair enough. Thanks for your answers.

[Doobs]

Was trying to find a story to check the Rory odds pre event at Ladbrokes, and it said they were 10/1.  If they have got a pasting, Betfair Sportsbook's book on the event should be fun reading.

I was just going on the main racing post back page golf story yday regarding the ladbrokes position.  If you add the fact they are 1/25 about a 1/5 shot on bf it kinda stacks up (albeit stupid trading)

Not disputing the story, no idea how they can be short and still have the biggest loser.  Maybe Ladbrokes only have mug money left as they have closed everybody down who has a clue?  Maybe he is their biggest liability as they laid a bunch of shrewdies 500/1 that a very promising young golfer would win The Open in the next 10 years?

[arbboy]

When you have 2500 shops in England scores and bullseye's on one of the few golfers any rec has heard of (probably as much to do with his TV adverts as much as his golfing achievements) soon add up at double figure prices.  At least 4 of my 'rec' mates who never bet golf have backed rory this weekend for a score/pony/bullseye for a bit of interest.