Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Before Neil posts anything, the 3.40 looks excellent if we can get 8 runners.  It has 3 no hopers and a short priced favourite.  Any of the next 4 in the betting after the favourite is going to be a good bet.

I think it is best to wait until this afternoon before betting and by then I will have read Neil's stuff so am going to be in a slightly compromised position.  I think it should be still ok to put something up as the value is blindingly obvious.

I like Dr No at 8-1, given the shape if it is e/w 1/4 1,2,3 a bit later

ran well in the Coventry, which has produced lots of subsequent winners

before that it beat Aktabantay at Nottingham by 2l. That horse then went on to run a close second at Newmarket's July meeting on that saturday with the freak weather in ground he hated

but Ahlan E or Tupi look fine too, as you say

I had a look at all 4 and thought I could back any of them.  Ahlan E has form with Kool Kompany who we seemed to catch on his only off day this year when we backed him at Ascot.

[Kmac84]

Before Neil posts anything, the 3.40 looks excellent if we can get 8 runners.  It has 3 no hopers and a short priced favourite.  Any of the next 4 in the betting after the favourite is going to be a good bet.

I think it is best to wait until this afternoon before betting and by then I will have read Neil's stuff so am going to be in a slightly compromised position.  I think it should be still ok to put something up as the value is blindingly obvious.

I like Dr No at 8-1, given the shape if it is e/w 1/4 1,2,3 a bit later

ran well in the Coventry, which has produced lots of subsequent winners

before that it beat Aktabantay at Nottingham by 2l. That horse then went on to run a close second at Newmarket's July meeting on that saturday with the freak weather in ground he hated

but Ahlan E or Tupi look fine too, as you say

I liked Tupi fwiw.  The Hannon yard have done well in this race in the past and going on one of the things Neil mentioned yesterday this looks like the bet to me.  Like Doobs I'd be waiting till later in day make sure there are no NR's.  

[superwomble]

Just seen this bad news for the Guernsey bet: http://guernseypress.com/sport/2014/07/18/allen-absent-from-gfc-pre-season-training

Do not worry, the story is not true.

Ross will be playing but is having a well-earned rest over the Summer. He is being sponsored this season by a local company in Guernsey which is confirmed on the Guernsey FC Facebook page. My man on the ground just said he is just going to join pre-season late.

He will be our main man. Won the golden boot last year scoring 54 goals. When they win the league then will see if I can get him in the thread.

Cheers for the update Mark.

[Doobs]

Before Neil posts anything, the 3.40 looks excellent if we can get 8 runners.  It has 3 no hopers and a short priced favourite.  Any of the next 4 in the betting after the favourite is going to be a good bet.

I think it is best to wait until this afternoon before betting and by then I will have read Neil's stuff so am going to be in a slightly compromised position.  I think it should be still ok to put something up as the value is blindingly obvious.

I like Dr No at 8-1, given the shape if it is e/w 1/4 1,2,3 a bit later

ran well in the Coventry, which has produced lots of subsequent winners

before that it beat Aktabantay at Nottingham by 2l. That horse then went on to run a close second at Newmarket's July meeting on that saturday with the freak weather in ground he hated

but Ahlan E or Tupi look fine too, as you say

I liked Tupi fwiw.  The Hannon yard have done well in this race in the past and going on one of the things Neil mentioned yesterday this looks like the bet to me.  Like Doobs I'd be waiting till later in day make sure there are no NR's.  

Tupi was probably my favourite.  We could probably delegate the picking of 1 or 2 of the 4 to somebody else who hasn't read Neil's stuff at 3.15 or so.  It would be a shame to miss the value for thread, but am guessing me, you and Tighty will all be a bit compromised at 3.15.

[TightEnd]

the problem is i can't get 7-1 Tupi anywhere we can get on at 1/4 odds

the only 7-1 i can get is ladbrokes 1/5th

1/4 is bet365, boyle, stan james

i can get 15/2 dr no corals 1/4 but not 8/1 1/4

i can only get 4-1 ahlan e 1/4

basically everywhere offering the best terms don't want the thread's business...

[TightEnd]

anyway, faced with the above i have done the following, all maxxed with B365

Tupi

3.40 Goodwood

£7.14 e/w 1/4 1,2,3

7-1

Ahlan E

£10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3

5-1


if it loses a runner beforehand, so be it.

As people are aware, its tricky once compromised by knowledge of what the BE paid package recommends

[Kmac84]

anyway, faced with the above i have done the following, all maxxed with B365

Tupi

3.40 Goodwood

£7.14 e/w 1/4 1,2,3

7-1

Ahlan E

£10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3

5-1


if it loses a runner beforehand, so be it.

As people are aware, its tricky once compromised by knowledge of what the BE paid package recommends

Can you try doing what Adz and Tikay alluded to yesterday with 365?

[arbboy]

I quite like the idea of arbboy as a rival Martin Lewis. Like an after-the-watershed, not allowed on the One Show version.

"Dump those ISAs, stop giving Johnny Banker your money to lose and lump it on Diego Costa to get six goals this season with his head with Sadjokes! Hurry! It's six spots over betfair and you're buying money! What are you waiting for? Stop making the dinner and get your flaming laptop out! BUY BUY BUY!!!"

Love it!

The likelihood of sky bet or bet365 going busto in the next year is smaller than any bank.  If I had. 5/10k sitting in instant access isa accounts and I had never had a 365 or sky bet account before opening two up and investing your money for 8/9 months here instead is a no brainer.  That obviously assumes it's dead money and you won't need it at all in the next year which is what most is a funds effectively are for most people.  If you spread the 10k out over the five 95% books or lower you should easily get the 10k invested on two new accounts. Sit back feet up and withdrawal you 10700 ish in April/ may. Risk free tax free and totally legal.  Add in the free bets from both new accounts and you are probably looking at closer to £11k returned in 9 months.

I might email martin and tell him he has missed this off his weekly email this morning.

[DungBeetle]

"The likelihood of sky bet or bet365 going busto in the next year is smaller than any bank."

Perhaps - but bank depositers get the £55k government guarantee (or whatever it is) so there is more credit risk with the bookie.

[arbboy]

"The likelihood of sky bet or bet365 going busto in the next year is smaller than any bank."

Perhaps - but bank depositers get the £55k government guarantee (or whatever it is) so there is more credit risk with the bookie.

Sure but I am happy to take that tiny chance to increase my likely return by 400%

[tikay]

We were looking to take on Donny this season right?

Baldy has stuck them in a seasonal match bet v the mighty Poshies and are 10-11 each of two.

They have the teams pretty close in outright betting (11-1 Posh, 12-1 Donny) but Poshies are as short as 9-1 in a place, with Donny as big as 20-1 with Choral.

Feels like this should be a chunky one? Let's go for the MAXXXXXXXXXXXX

We have 20-1 Doncaster to be relegated

We have Peterborough to be promoted

We have a Peterborough player to be league one golden boot

Peterborough are going to score 100s of goals this season


ergo, a maximum on the match bet does seem appropriate

£220.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
League One 2014/2015 - Season Match Bets
Doncaster V Peterborough
   Peterborough    10/11    
Total stake   £ 220.00
Estimated return   £ 420.00
Full stake   £ 220.00
Full estimated return   £ 420.00

Apologies for late input, been AWOL 24 hours.

Can I assume that is a typo? You mean £22, not £220, right? Right?

[tikay]

Just seen this bad news for the Guernsey bet: http://guernseypress.com/sport/2014/07/18/allen-absent-from-gfc-pre-season-training

Do not worry, the story is not true.

Ross will be playing but is having a well-earned rest over the Summer. He is being sponsored this season by a local company in Guernsey which is confirmed on the Guernsey FC Facebook page. My man on the ground just said he is just going to join pre-season late.

He will be our main man. Won the golden boot last year scoring 54 goals. When they win the league then will see if I can get him in the thread.

When does Guernsey's season proper commence, please?

Really looking forward to following this. Fun times for Tighty, in his Daily Report, too,

[tikay]

Wow @ Kingman.

Lovely race to watch.

[TightEnd]

We were looking to take on Donny this season right?

Baldy has stuck them in a seasonal match bet v the mighty Poshies and are 10-11 each of two.

They have the teams pretty close in outright betting (11-1 Posh, 12-1 Donny) but Poshies are as short as 9-1 in a place, with Donny as big as 20-1 with Choral.

Feels like this should be a chunky one? Let's go for the MAXXXXXXXXXXXX

We have 20-1 Doncaster to be relegated

We have Peterborough to be promoted

We have a Peterborough player to be league one golden boot

Peterborough are going to score 100s of goals this season


ergo, a maximum on the match bet does seem appropriate

£220.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
League One 2014/2015 - Season Match Bets
Doncaster V Peterborough
   Peterborough    10/11    
Total stake   £ 220.00
Estimated return   £ 420.00
Full stake   £ 220.00
Full estimated return   £ 420.00

Apologies for late input, been AWOL 24 hours.

Can I assume that is a typo? You mean £22, not £220, right? Right?

about 3% of a £3k starting book and £4k+ profit so £7000ish is £210-220.

go AWOL less often ;-)

[Chompy]

It's best when Tighty's in charge. Flicks it in with impunitah.