Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

as per comments on the koeman is a saints thread I am going to put this here

I think it will be rejected and everyone know I am a nit when it comes to money

as per the original recommend and your comments in the bet
I would seriously think about laying £16.50 off on the befair exchange
it would mean tying up £100ish for rest of season but will give us a freeroll on the bets
I do think saints have played the market well and getting koeman in
and keeping a few of the players that was linked away means IMHO the 7.2 available for the lay is worth it
well I am a mug punter so I would be laying it before the price goes up with a good fixture list

potty looks very likely to be going to spurs now, he is talking to levy. with him going its going to be likely the squad is going to get broken up
with lallana and shaw already likely to go add into that lovern schneiderlin and ward-prowse

with intrest also going to be in chambers clyne rodrigeous and rameriez

the saints could easy be losing 6+ of the squad that got them up the table last year
and its going to be hard to attract players of a quailty to a "selling club"

the 2.25 for finishing in bottom half looks a good bet
as does the 15.0 for relegation even 10.0 looks value to me


maybe i am just being a pessimist but i would recommend £10 on both

Betfred would not lay me a penny at 14-1, I was going to put the £25 freebet on

totesport on the other hand

Bet receipt
Your selections

    Event: Premier League 2014-2015 - Relegation
    Time: 05-05-2015 15:00
    BS_MARKET: Relegation
    Selection: Southampton @ 14/1

Your Bets

    Win
    Single:
    Southampton
    1 line at £15.00 per line
    Total stake for this bet: £15.00
    Potential Return: £225.00
    No: O/0849138/0000013

    Total stake:£15.00
    Free bets/vouchers:£0.00
    Total cost:£15.00


i'd rather not do 2-1 bottom half with the bet to run for 15 months, and have the bit extra on relegation bet ironside if thats ok

I know a lot of money left the club when Cortese left, and some of the £ from the players will be re-invested but we have

a) new manager risk
b) getting new players in of sufficient quality risk

so i reckon 14-1 should shorten as it plays out

opinions on this please?

lay off or run with it?

They have just spent 12m on Shane Long....which is incredibly inept imo.  To get out off the back of one performance would be bad I think.  Recency bias etc

[Ironside]

as per comments on the koeman is a saints thread I am going to put this here

I think it will be rejected and everyone know I am a nit when it comes to money

as per the original recommend and your comments in the bet
I would seriously think about laying £16.50 off on the befair exchange
it would mean tying up £100ish for rest of season but will give us a freeroll on the bets
I do think saints have played the market well and getting koeman in
and keeping a few of the players that was linked away means IMHO the 7.2 available for the lay is worth it
well I am a mug punter so I would be laying it before the price goes up with a good fixture list

potty looks very likely to be going to spurs now, he is talking to levy. with him going its going to be likely the squad is going to get broken up
with lallana and shaw already likely to go add into that lovern schneiderlin and ward-prowse

with intrest also going to be in chambers clyne rodrigeous and rameriez

the saints could easy be losing 6+ of the squad that got them up the table last year
and its going to be hard to attract players of a quailty to a "selling club"

the 2.25 for finishing in bottom half looks a good bet
as does the 15.0 for relegation even 10.0 looks value to me


maybe i am just being a pessimist but i would recommend £10 on both

Betfred would not lay me a penny at 14-1, I was going to put the £25 freebet on

totesport on the other hand

Bet receipt
Your selections

    Event: Premier League 2014-2015 - Relegation
    Time: 05-05-2015 15:00
    BS_MARKET: Relegation
    Selection: Southampton @ 14/1

Your Bets

    Win
    Single:
    Southampton
    1 line at £15.00 per line
    Total stake for this bet: £15.00
    Potential Return: £225.00
    No: O/0849138/0000013

    Total stake:£15.00
    Free bets/vouchers:£0.00
    Total cost:£15.00


i'd rather not do 2-1 bottom half with the bet to run for 15 months, and have the bit extra on relegation bet ironside if thats ok

I know a lot of money left the club when Cortese left, and some of the £ from the players will be re-invested but we have

a) new manager risk
b) getting new players in of sufficient quality risk

so i reckon 14-1 should shorten as it plays out

opinions on this please?

lay off or run with it?

koeman has stated he is going to be getting atleast one more player a winger before the end of the window
with the possibilty of upto 3 more players coming in (likely the winger a defender and a striker)
he has managed to bring in much better players so far than i expected and has pretty much
replaced the players without breaking the bank and if that continues with any more purchases
then the saints will finish safely in mid table

i would take the freeroll personally as i dont think we are more like 14-1 shots still to get relegated and the 6 or 7-1 odds on betfair
are more to do with the fact we lost so many players
if yesterdays game was anything to go by wont be much worse than last season

[Ironside]

saints next 11 league games
could be sat on 18-20 points
doesnt look like there will be another oppotunity to get out so its now or never if we want to back out



Southampton V West Brom
   Sat 23 Aug    15:00    
West Ham V Southampton
   Sat 30 Aug    15:00

Southampton V Newcastle
   Sat 13 Sep    15:00    
   Swansea V Southampton
   Sat 20 Sep    15:00    
Southampton V QPR
   Sat 27 Sep    15:00       

Tottenham V Southampton
   Sat 4 Oct    15:00    

Southampton V Sunderland
   Sat 18 Oct    15:00    
   Premier League    

Southampton V Stoke
   Sat 25 Oct    15:00    

Hull V Southampton
   Sat 1 Nov    15:00    
   Premier League    

Southampton V Leicester
   Sat 8 Nov    15:00    

Aston Villa V Southampton
   Mon 24 Nov    2

[Doobs]

as per comments on the koeman is a saints thread I am going to put this here

I think it will be rejected and everyone know I am a nit when it comes to money

as per the original recommend and your comments in the bet
I would seriously think about laying £16.50 off on the befair exchange
it would mean tying up £100ish for rest of season but will give us a freeroll on the bets
I do think saints have played the market well and getting koeman in
and keeping a few of the players that was linked away means IMHO the 7.2 available for the lay is worth it
well I am a mug punter so I would be laying it before the price goes up with a good fixture list

potty looks very likely to be going to spurs now, he is talking to levy. with him going its going to be likely the squad is going to get broken up
with lallana and shaw already likely to go add into that lovern schneiderlin and ward-prowse

with intrest also going to be in chambers clyne rodrigeous and rameriez

the saints could easy be losing 6+ of the squad that got them up the table last year
and its going to be hard to attract players of a quailty to a "selling club"

the 2.25 for finishing in bottom half looks a good bet
as does the 15.0 for relegation even 10.0 looks value to me


maybe i am just being a pessimist but i would recommend £10 on both

Betfred would not lay me a penny at 14-1, I was going to put the £25 freebet on

totesport on the other hand

Bet receipt
Your selections

    Event: Premier League 2014-2015 - Relegation
    Time: 05-05-2015 15:00
    BS_MARKET: Relegation
    Selection: Southampton @ 14/1

Your Bets

    Win
    Single:
    Southampton
    1 line at £15.00 per line
    Total stake for this bet: £15.00
    Potential Return: £225.00
    No: O/0849138/0000013

    Total stake:£15.00
    Free bets/vouchers:£0.00
    Total cost:£15.00


i'd rather not do 2-1 bottom half with the bet to run for 15 months, and have the bit extra on relegation bet ironside if thats ok

I know a lot of money left the club when Cortese left, and some of the £ from the players will be re-invested but we have

a) new manager risk
b) getting new players in of sufficient quality risk

so i reckon 14-1 should shorten as it plays out

opinions on this please?

lay off or run with it?

We have invested £20, given the price has halved, it was obviously a good bet, why do we want to invest 5 times as much at what is likely a bad price?  Just seems amateurish to me. 

[Ironside]

ok so given that 2 of the most shrewd punters think the bet should stand I will withdraw my chickening out lay

[redarmi]

koeman has stated he is going to be getting atleast one more player a winger before the end of the window
with the possibilty of upto 3 more players coming in (likely the winger a defender and a striker)
he has managed to bring in much better players so far than i expected and has pretty much
replaced the players without breaking the bank and if that continues with any more purchases
then the saints will finish safely in mid table

i would take the freeroll personally as i dont think we are more like 14-1 shots still to get relegated and the 6 or 7-1 odds on betfair
are more to do with the fact we lost so many players
if yesterdays game was anything to go by wont be much worse than last season

That is exactly the point I am making.  If he has spent 12m on Long the rest of the transfer window could be equally as bad......just because a team spends money doesn't mean it is a positive.  I think you are putting way too much emphasis on a single performance which was okay but we also don't have a great feel for how good Liverpool are this season yet so it is very hard to benchmark it and remember, if you really are keen to benchmark it then you beat the same team (Liv minus Suarez) 1-0 in the reverse fixture last year and were quite convincing with it.

[redarmi]

Ladbrokes are 9/2 Diego Costa to score first tonight.  I was actually looking at the market with the plan to bet someone else because I thought he would be too short but at 9/2 he is definitely a bet.  Would make him about a 4/1 shot.  Rec a pony?

[Chompy]

Don't think it's worth trading a £15 bet tbh, just let it ride.

Got that link to all the bets struck Tighty? Doesn't seem to work in IE, so I deleted it from favs without copying it. Think it's ok in Godzilla Furryfox.

[DungBeetle]

The theory that there should be very few favourites on the road on the Championship at this early stage worked well on Saturday as both Birmingham and Leeds won (the third selection Sheff Wed drew 0-0 with Derby).

The midweek coupon throws up 3 further dogs at home (I continue to exclude Blackpool due to their unique circumstances)

Birmingham v Ipswich
Charlton v Derby
Rotherham v Watford

Might be worth a small investement on these to see if the theory holds water.  One win creates a virtual freeroll.

A footnote from me is that Sannino has an amazing home record as Watford boss, but has something like 8 points from 14 games on the road, so the Hornets cannot be trusted as away favourites until he has shown improvement in this area.

I'm going up to Rotherham tomorrow so must be a glutton for punishment!

[TightEnd]

Don't think it's worth trading a £15 bet tbh, just let it ride.

Got that link to all the bets struck Tighty? Doesn't seem to work in IE, so I deleted it from favs without copying it. Think it's ok in Godzilla Furryfox.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=28

[TightEnd]

The theory that there should be very few favourites on the road on the Championship at this early stage worked well on Saturday as both Birmingham and Leeds won (the third selection Sheff Wed drew 0-0 with Derby).

The midweek coupon throws up 3 further dogs at home (I continue to exclude Blackpool due to their unique circumstances)

Birmingham v Ipswich
Charlton v Derby
Rotherham v Watford

Might be worth a small investement on these to see if the theory holds water.  One win creates a virtual freeroll.

A footnote from me is that Sannino has an amazing home record as Watford boss, but has something like 8 points from 14 games on the road, so the Hornets cannot be trusted as away favourites until he has shown improvement in this area.

I'm going up to Rotherham tomorrow so must be a glutton for punishment!

you need to give me some specifics please

what sort of size bets at what prices? singles? doubles?

i saw rotherham in pre-season (ground number 91) and was impressed. not going to be an easy place to go and get points

liked the look of swift on loan from chelsea a lot, and they have plenty going on out wide.

[TightEnd]

Ladbrokes are 9/2 Diego Costa to score first tonight.  I was actually looking at the market with the plan to bet someone else because I thought he would be too short but at 9/2 he is definitely a bet.  Would make him about a 4/1 shot.  Rec a pony?

this is an offer boost from 7/2

i tried for pony, but was allowed a hoof and fetlock, which is what i expected

tend to be cut back on any offers

Diego Costa
Burnley v Chelsea
Singles - 1st Goalscorer 9/2
1 line @ £5.00 per line
Total Stake £5.00
Potential Return £27.50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000672

[DungBeetle]

The theory that there should be very few favourites on the road on the Championship at this early stage worked well on Saturday as both Birmingham and Leeds won (the third selection Sheff Wed drew 0-0 with Derby).

The midweek coupon throws up 3 further dogs at home (I continue to exclude Blackpool due to their unique circumstances)

Birmingham v Ipswich
Charlton v Derby
Rotherham v Watford

Might be worth a small investement on these to see if the theory holds water.  One win creates a virtual freeroll.

A footnote from me is that Sannino has an amazing home record as Watford boss, but has something like 8 points from 14 games on the road, so the Hornets cannot be trusted as away favourites until he has shown improvement in this area.

I'm going up to Rotherham tomorrow so must be a glutton for punishment!

you need to give me some specifics please

what sort of size bets at what prices? singles? doubles?

i saw rotherham in pre-season (ground number 91) and was impressed. not going to be an easy place to go and get points

liked the look of swift on loan from chelsea a lot, and they have plenty going on out wide.

More of a think out loud.  My play on Saturday was 3 small singles just on value grounds because we don't know who the real cream in the Championship are yet, so backing home team dogs early except Blackpool can't be a bad strategy (in my head).   Think the window for doing this blind is quite small - probably up to the first international break as after 6 games we'll get some form lines.  Maybe three  £20 singles.  If one comes in then we are on a free roll as they are 2/1 and up.

[redarmi]

Really like Rotherham too and just put them in my Betting Emporium piece.  Seems a case of an unfashionable team playing a fashionable one but not bothering to look at what they are actually doing.

[tikay]

Well done singheee. I think Fred was the only punter here who did not get on!

Serves me right.

I blame Tighty actually. He was in a foul mood yesterday, & I had to carry the load alone.