Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

The Royals went to extra innings 5-5 with the Twins, who then promptly hit six runs in the 10th to win and for the Royals their gap at the top of the AL Central down to 1.5 games again


6 runs in the extra innings - that must be quite unusual, surely? A bit like a football match being 0-0 @ full time, but 4-0 after ET?

[horseplayer]

The agent thing yesterday was interesting as to how little Blackpool paid out which in most ways is admirable, however.

Jack Gaughan ‏@Jack_Gaughan  4m
Blackpool chairman Karl Oyston refused to pay £100,000 for new Bayern Munich signing Mehdi Benatia (now £21m) when he was at Claremont. Due to a small agents fee

[arbboy]

Fair old move for Yes in the last hour or two on betfair

47/53 the latest poll I saw.  It's "on" so to speak.

This helps the 45-50% yes band and makes it even more likely than it already was.  IMO this band should now be fav and it isn't.  It's 7/2 still at lads.  Did we back it a couple of days ago?  If not i recommended a solid £50 wager at 7/2 with lads.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/yes-vote-percentage

[tikay]

  How Can These NFL Futures Bets Possibly Lose Money?



With the NFL season nigh, you may be interested in the thoughts of Nolan Dalla.

I've known Dolan for a decade or more, but have become quite close to him of late, & Lord Grumpy marked my card as to Nolan's expertise on Sports Betting.

Guess we missed the boat on these, but NFL geeks may enjoy his views, even if you don't agree with them.

Nolan writes well well.


http://www.nolandalla.com/

[sonour]

Fair old move for Yes in the last hour or two on betfair

47/53 the latest poll I saw.  It's "on" so to speak.

This helps the 45-50% yes band and makes it even more likely than it already was.  IMO this band should now be fav and it isn't.  It's 7/2 still at lads.  Did we back it a couple of days ago?  If not i recommended a solid £50 wager at 7/2 with lads.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/yes-vote-percentage

Morning arbboy,

I don't understand the odds for the yes vote percentage.

We have :-

40-45% at 3.0
45-50% at 4.5
50-55% at 5.0

Could it really be outside these 3 bands ?

[arbboy]

Fair old move for Yes in the last hour or two on betfair

47/53 the latest poll I saw.  It's "on" so to speak.

This helps the 45-50% yes band and makes it even more likely than it already was.  IMO this band should now be fav and it isn't.  It's 7/2 still at lads.  Did we back it a couple of days ago?  If not i recommended a solid £50 wager at 7/2 with lads.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/yes-vote-percentage

Morning arbboy,

I don't understand the odds for the yes vote percentage.

We have :-

40-45% at 3.0
45-50% at 4.5
50-55% at 5.0

Could it really be outside these 3 bands ?

Morning Mrs Bandit.  Hope all is well and you are not working the hubby too hard!

It can be outside these bands of course but i think it's much less likely to be than the odds imply.  45-50 should definitely be the most likely band now imo but the prices don't reflect this.  There is no point backing 50-55 at 4/1 as you can get bigger just backing the Yes vote outright and have >55% (unlikely but still possible) running for you as well.  I think all the value is in the 45-50 band.

[TightEnd]

I now get to report on this daily. Tremendous, no downside to that at all.

Event Information:    Scottish Independence Referendum
Scottish Referendum
2014-09-18 12:00:00
Market:    Yes Vote Percentage
Selection:    45 - 50% @ 7/2
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000726
Placed at:    10:02 29/08/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £50.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £50.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £50.00
   
   
   £225.00
   

[ripple11]

Fair old move for Yes in the last hour or two on betfair

47/53 the latest poll I saw.  It's "on" so to speak.

This helps the 45-50% yes band and makes it even more likely than it already was.  IMO this band should now be fav and it isn't.  It's 7/2 still at lads.  Did we back it a couple of days ago?  If not i recommended a solid £50 wager at 7/2 with lads.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/yes-vote-percentage

Morning arbboy,

I don't understand the odds for the yes vote percentage.

We have :-

40-45% at 3.0
45-50% at 4.5
50-55% at 5.0

Could it really be outside these 3 bands ?

Morning Mrs Bandit.  Hope all is well and you are not working the hubby too hard!

It can be outside these bands of course but i think it's much less likely to be than the odds imply.  45-50 should definitely be the most likely band now imo but the prices don't reflect this.  There is no point backing 50-55 at 4/1 as you can get bigger just backing the Yes vote outright and have >55% (unlikely but still possible) running for you as well.  I think all the value is in the 45-50 band.

Dangers?....poll of polls has YES running about 38%.
 Also you possibly have the "I say dont vote Tory but do in reality" effect. ie experts predict that the numbers may have been kind to the nationalists, because some of those questioned may have felt it’s just not cool to declare they want Scotland to remain part of Britain.

However I agree with arbboy, that over 40% looks more likely given current momentum.

[arbboy]

I now get to report on this daily. Tremendous, no downside to that at all.

Event Information:    Scottish Independence Referendum
Scottish Referendum
2014-09-18 12:00:00
Market:    Yes Vote Percentage
Selection:    45 - 50% @ 7/2
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000726
Placed at:    10:02 29/08/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £50.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £50.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £50.00
   
   
   £225.00
   

Where are the daily weather reports??   Are we assuming its locked up?

[sonour]

Fair old move for Yes in the last hour or two on betfair

47/53 the latest poll I saw.  It's "on" so to speak.

This helps the 45-50% yes band and makes it even more likely than it already was.  IMO this band should now be fav and it isn't.  It's 7/2 still at lads.  Did we back it a couple of days ago?  If not i recommended a solid £50 wager at 7/2 with lads.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/yes-vote-percentage

Morning arbboy,

I don't understand the odds for the yes vote percentage.

We have :-

40-45% at 3.0
45-50% at 4.5
50-55% at 5.0

Could it really be outside these 3 bands ?

Morning Mrs Bandit.  Hope all is well and you are not working the hubby too hard!

It can be outside these bands of course but i think it's much less likely to be than the odds imply.  45-50 should definitely be the most likely band now imo but the prices don't reflect this.  There is no point backing 50-55 at 4/1 as you can get bigger just backing the Yes vote outright and have >55% (unlikely but still possible) running for you as well.  I think all the value is in the 45-50 band.

Thank you

[arbboy]

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1898181

Following on from the big arb on ukip winning a seat at the next general election, Paddy have made ukip 1/4 tories 10/3 to win the by election at Clacton (i can't find any other prices for this on oddschecker etc from other firms - if anyone sees any can they post links on here).  I assume this price would be similar for the general election next year so the 2/5 with Coral for ukip to win ANY seat at the next GE looks huge value given they will have numerous other live chances outside of Clacton.

[DungBeetle]

Can someone explain to me the logic behind some firms making Southampton favourites to win away at West Ham tomorrow?

Hammers 9/5 with B365 - looks way too big for me.  I'd have West Ham about 5/4!

Maybe I'm missing something?

[RickBFA]

Can someone explain to me the logic behind some firms making Southampton favourites to win away at West Ham tomorrow?

Hammers 9/5 with B365 - looks way too big for me.  I'd have West Ham about 5/4!

Maybe I'm missing something?

I agree with you. West Ham are on my shortlist of possible bets this weekend. BV are 15/8.

[arbboy]

Can someone explain to me the logic behind some firms making Southampton favourites to win away at West Ham tomorrow?

Hammers 9/5 with B365 - looks way too big for me.  I'd have West Ham about 5/4!

Maybe I'm missing something?

This looks a cracking bet on the face of it.  It happened a lot last year when Soton were going off very short to mid table sides away from home.  They are clearly not the team they were last year.  I just had a quick look at Sportingindex's season points for the two teams and they effectively make Soton 2 points better than WH over the season therefore on the face of it West Ham look a cracking bet at 9/5 in this spot.  Obviously football betting is a lot more complex than this simple fact but i get your point totally.

[tikay]

I now get to report on this daily. Tremendous, no downside to that at all.

Event Information:    Scottish Independence Referendum
Scottish Referendum
2014-09-18 12:00:00
Market:    Yes Vote Percentage
Selection:    45 - 50% @ 7/2
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000726
Placed at:    10:02 29/08/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £50.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £50.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £50.00
   
   
   £225.00
   

Where are the daily weather reports??   Are we assuming its locked up?

Good point.

We ought to have a sort of Tighty version of the Shipping Forecast. Every day.

You ever listened to the Shipping Forecast on the wireless? GREAT little show, that.


Channel Light Vessel Automatic. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.