Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Reminds me of a Rich Hall quote:

"People say the greatest invention ever was the wheel, but I think it was the second wheel. Have you ever seen a guy riding a unicycle?"

[arbboy]

Right FIBA World Basketball which starts tomorrow and lasts for 2 weeks in a very cramped schedule involving a lot of games in a short space of time.  Spain are the host nation and 2nd favs in predominately a two horse race with USA.  I have included the wiki page to explain the history of the event.  USA don't tend to take this as seriously as the Olympics and they haven't sent the cream of the crop NBA superstars for this event.  James and Durant both stay at home and USA have for the first time ever included 4 players 6'10'' or taller in their squad to cope with the sheer size of Spain's squad.  However the squad is still easily the most talented on paper with numerous top 20 talent NBA players in it.  Spain are at full strength and include numerous NBA players of decent quality and have the advantage of playing at home.  

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/fiba-world-cup/winner

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIBA_Basketball_World_Cup

My preview/selections as follows:

Outright Market.  I really like USA at 8/11 (now 7/10) with Ladbrokes.  They have drifted to this price since Durant pulled out of the squad and due to Spain's home court advantage.  However they are still clearly the most talented side on paper and have specifically picked their squad to cope with Spain and Lithuania's height and bulk close to the basket.   I think Spain are underpriced due to home court advantage and the fact the euro books on oddschecker will see a lot more cash for them from their european clients than the USA.  

Lithuania for me are the clear 3rd favs and as Redarmi pointed out in a previous post they gave a much better USA side a real run at the 2012 London games.  I suggest them as a saver to the main USA bet.  For a more speculative punt Croatia at 150/1 (betfred) are also worth an interest as they have a relatively easy group to get through.  We should be able to get 300/1 on bf so i would suggest putting an order in there rather than taking the 150/1.

Recommend £50 USA 7/10 ladbrokes.  £10 Lithuania 40/1 ladbrokes. £5 croatia 300/1 on bf.

Without the big 2:  This is the market i really like Lithuania in for the reasons given above.  6/1 Boyles (11/2 bet365/coral are still fine)  Recommend £25

MVP:  This market obviously revolves around the USA and Spain players however i am not as strong on this market as i am not entirely sure how the voting works for it/whether in previous competitions which type of players have won the award (high scorers/all round productive players/does the MVP always come from the winning team etc etc) so i will keep stakes low on this one and recommend a small interest.  I think the Spanish team would have to win the event for any of their players to win the award as their team is so deep and not reliant at all on any one player/scorer.  The USA will have 2 or 3 players they rely on heavily for scoring with James and Durant not playing.  For this reason alone i am going to recommened £20 James Harden at 5/1 (hills) for MVP.  He is the biggest scorer on the USA team and most of the team's will struggle to contain his offense.  He is a very heavy scorer (some would say greedy and doesn't play defence) in the NBA and should really enjoy this relative drop down in class.

Top American Team  USA are 1/5 with Hills in this market and only have 2 realistic contenders (Brazil and Argies) both of whom are in the other half of the draw with Spain to the USA so this could just be a case of if the USA get to the final then the bet is already won.  1/5 is short but not short enough.  Recommend £100 at 1/5 (hills)

Player Specials:  These have come from my brother who is a basketball coach for a living and follows the NBA and euroleague very closely and has suggested the following bets to me in these markets:  Most of these selections are based on his opinion of some teams resting players more than other teams.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/fiba-world-cup/top-club-scorers-top-real-madrid-scorer

Nocioni 15/8 (hills) Recommend £25

I am currently looking at some other specials markets as we speak and will post more if i find anything else of value.

[Ironside]

Football manager/cm greatest waste of time invented, I got hooked on the first one on my old Amiga when I was on complete bed rest, and only reason I bought a PC was cause version 2 had Scottish league but realise on Amiga kept getting put back

[redarmi]

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1898181

Following on from the big arb on ukip winning a seat at the next general election, Paddy have made ukip 1/4 tories 10/3 to win the by election at Clacton (i can't find any other prices for this on oddschecker etc from other firms - if anyone sees any can they post links on here).  I assume this price would be similar for the general election next year so the 2/5 with Coral for ukip to win ANY seat at the next GE looks huge value given they will have numerous other live chances outside of Clacton.

1/4 for UKIP to win by-election is too short surely.  Who knows how electorate will react?

It is very, very difficult for a sitting government to win a by election.  They generally need a very big majority to hold a seat and winning one from another party is very rare indeed (think the last time it happened was in 1982 during the Falklands which was a fairly unique case) so basically the swing at by elections away from governments is generally very high and if anything it is getting higher.  This kinda reminds me of the Bradford by election a few years ago where Galloway won his seat and whilst 1/4 may be on the short side I would definitely be a backer at 1/2.  That doesn't mean, however, that the 2/5 UKIP to win any seat at the general election is value.  I think the likeliest scenario is that UKIP win this and then lose this seat at the general election.  In fact with anything less than an 8k majority here I would bet on the Tories at a fairly short price in this seat next time out because protest votes don't really happen at general elections or certainly not to the same extent as they do in by elections anyway.

[redarmi]

Should have added that I am not saying the 2/5 UKIP to win a seat  at the general election is no value (although I do think the 4/1 them not to win one is probably okay) but just that the fact they are 1/4 in Clacton doesn't automatically mean that the 2/5 is value.  I'm rambling......

[Jamier-Host]

Agree with Scotty

Bring back To Madeira, even though he was a made up player

glory days

I still play this every year when they do the community player update - http://www.champman0102.co.uk/

[bobby1]

The Blonde Dynasty (pronounced DYE-nass-tee, naturellement) League was last night's endeavour. You select a squad and keep it over the years, like you would in Championship Manager. There's all the obvious folks you want in your squad, but the shrewdies are the ones who can spot future stars, who they can either keep or sell at a premium later on. The stars of tomorrow are just as important as the stars of today.



Could you imagine doing something similar in poker? Which of the fifty thousand eighteen year olds should you be getting into your stable for the 2017 WSOP?

Crikey, I must have had a sheltered life, never heard of that, either.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Championship_Manager_series


Got some awesome stuff in there......

In one bug, non-league club Northwich Victoria would move to a stadium with a capacity of 850,000.

Is this game for grown-ups as well, or just children?

ok i said no more but you started on Champ Man now. From a thread in 2005.

   
Re: Championship Manager
« Reply #39 on: November 09, 2005, 08:54:34 PM »
Reply with quote
I have a very sad confession to make....


I woke up one morning with a terrible pain in my right arm, which due to a blood disorder is a very worrying thing. I gave my future wife a nudge and told her that I felt unwell and did the pre arranged checks for lumps and swelling. As this continued I noticed that my neck was also hurting and I now became very scared so I called the NHS helpline to get some advice.

The girl asked me all sorts of questions due to my blood disorder and was arranging for me to seen by the home visit doctor when the following conversation took place.

'One final question sir, have you been on a long plane journey or been sitting in the same position for an extanded period of time,(I'm more susceptible to DVT than the average person).

'Yes' I replied. ' I have been off work this week and have played Championship manager for about 50 of the last 72 hours'

'And is the pain in the arm that you use to click the mouse'

'er.....Yes'

'Then I think the best course of action sir is to swap hands and get up and move around at half time' She laughed

I thanked her, told the Mrs not to worry and promptly moved the mouse to my left hand for the next few days........Its true.

[bobby1]

I know you can't bet it Tony but Jim Furyk should be shorter than 5/6 to beat Hunter Mahan in a 72 hole match tie no bet in the US golf with Scuy. Same price including the tie with other books and 1.6 with Pinny in the their no bet market.

[horseplayer]

[tikay]

Great story Phil.

OK, we'd best get serious - thats some great write up by ArgueBloke on the Basketball thing. 

[DungBeetle]

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1898181

Following on from the big arb on ukip winning a seat at the next general election, Paddy have made ukip 1/4 tories 10/3 to win the by election at Clacton (i can't find any other prices for this on oddschecker etc from other firms - if anyone sees any can they post links on here).  I assume this price would be similar for the general election next year so the 2/5 with Coral for ukip to win ANY seat at the next GE looks huge value given they will have numerous other live chances outside of Clacton.

1/4 for UKIP to win by-election is too short surely.  Who knows how electorate will react?

It is very, very difficult for a sitting government to win a by election.  They generally need a very big majority to hold a seat and winning one from another party is very rare indeed (think the last time it happened was in 1982 during the Falklands which was a fairly unique case) so basically the swing at by elections away from governments is generally very high and if anything it is getting higher.  This kinda reminds me of the Bradford by election a few years ago where Galloway won his seat and whilst 1/4 may be on the short side I would definitely be a backer at 1/2.  That doesn't mean, however, that the 2/5 UKIP to win any seat at the general election is value.  I think the likeliest scenario is that UKIP win this and then lose this seat at the general election.  In fact with anything less than an 8k majority here I would bet on the Tories at a fairly short price in this seat next time out because protest votes don't really happen at general elections or certainly not to the same extent as they do in by elections anyway.

But surely the point is that it is already a Tory seat even though the candidate has changed.  Don't underestimate how much tribal Tory voters detest Miliband however much they like UKIP.  I don't think UKIP will get the swing required personally would never back at 1/2 although I agree they should be favs.

[arbboy]

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1898181

Following on from the big arb on ukip winning a seat at the next general election, Paddy have made ukip 1/4 tories 10/3 to win the by election at Clacton (i can't find any other prices for this on oddschecker etc from other firms - if anyone sees any can they post links on here).  I assume this price would be similar for the general election next year so the 2/5 with Coral for ukip to win ANY seat at the next GE looks huge value given they will have numerous other live chances outside of Clacton.

1/4 for UKIP to win by-election is too short surely.  Who knows how electorate will react?

It is very, very difficult for a sitting government to win a by election.  They generally need a very big majority to hold a seat and winning one from another party is very rare indeed (think the last time it happened was in 1982 during the Falklands which was a fairly unique case) so basically the swing at by elections away from governments is generally very high and if anything it is getting higher.  This kinda reminds me of the Bradford by election a few years ago where Galloway won his seat and whilst 1/4 may be on the short side I would definitely be a backer at 1/2.  That doesn't mean, however, that the 2/5 UKIP to win any seat at the general election is value.  I think the likeliest scenario is that UKIP win this and then lose this seat at the general election.  In fact with anything less than an 8k majority here I would bet on the Tories at a fairly short price in this seat next time out because protest votes don't really happen at general elections or certainly not to the same extent as they do in by elections anyway.

But surely the point is that it is already a Tory seat even though the candidate has changed.  Don't underestimate how much tribal Tory voters detest Miliband however much they like UKIP.  I don't think UKIP will get the swing required personally would never back at 1/2 although I agree they should be favs.

I think the key thing you are missing is the UKIP guy in Clacton when he stood for the tories gained a lot of respect locally and it must be assumed a lot of his tory voters will switch as they were voting for him personally rather than just the tory party. 

[TightEnd]

Right FIBA World Basketball which starts tomorrow and lasts for 2 weeks in a very cramped schedule involving a lot of games in a short space of time.  Spain are the host nation and 2nd favs in predominately a two horse race with USA.  I have included the wiki page to explain the history of the event.  USA don't tend to take this as seriously as the Olympics and they haven't sent the cream of the crop NBA superstars for this event.  James and Durant both stay at home and USA have for the first time ever included 4 players 6'10'' or taller in their squad to cope with the sheer size of Spain's squad.  However the squad is still easily the most talented on paper with numerous top 20 talent NBA players in it.  Spain are at full strength and include numerous NBA players of decent quality and have the advantage of playing at home. 

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/fiba-world-cup/winner

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIBA_Basketball_World_Cup

My preview/selections as follows:

Outright Market.  I really like USA at 8/11 (now 7/10) with Ladbrokes.  They have drifted to this price since Durant pulled out of the squad and due to Spain's home court advantage.  However they are still clearly the most talented side on paper and have specifically picked their squad to cope with Spain and Lithuania's height and bulk close to the basket.   I think Spain are underpriced due to home court advantage and the fact the euro books on oddschecker will see a lot more cash for them from their european clients than the USA. 

Lithuania for me are the clear 3rd favs and as Redarmi pointed out in a previous post they gave a much better USA side a real run at the 2012 London games.  I suggest them as a saver to the main USA bet.  For a more speculative punt Croatia at 150/1 (betfred) are also worth an interest as they have a relatively easy group to get through.  We should be able to get 300/1 on bf so i would suggest putting an order in there rather than taking the 150/1.

Recommend £50 USA 7/10 ladbrokes.  £10 Lithuania 40/1 ladbrokes. £5 croatia 300/1 on bf.

Without the big 2:  This is the market i really like Lithuania in for the reasons given above.  6/1 Boyles (11/2 bet365/coral are still fine)  Recommend £25

MVP:  This market obviously revolves around the USA and Spain players however i am not as strong on this market as i am not entirely sure how the voting works for it/whether in previous competitions which type of players have won the award (high scorers/all round productive players/does the MVP always come from the winning team etc etc) so i will keep stakes low on this one and recommend a small interest.  I think the Spanish team would have to win the event for any of their players to win the award as their team is so deep and not reliant at all on any one player/scorer.  The USA will have 2 or 3 players they rely on heavily for scoring with James and Durant not playing.  For this reason alone i am going to recommened £20 James Harden at 5/1 (hills) for MVP.  He is the biggest scorer on the USA team and most of the team's will struggle to contain his offense.  He is a very heavy scorer (some would say greedy and doesn't play defence) in the NBA and should really enjoy this relative drop down in class.

Top American Team  USA are 1/5 with Hills in this market and only have 2 realistic contenders (Brazil and Argies) both of whom are in the other half of the draw with Spain to the USA so this could just be a case of if the USA get to the final then the bet is already won.  1/5 is short but not short enough.  Recommend £100 at 1/5 (hills)

Player Specials: These have come from my brother who is a basketball coach for a living and follows the NBA and euroleague very closely and has suggested the following bets to me in these markets:  Most of these selections are based on his opinion of some teams resting players more than other teams.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/fiba-world-cup/top-club-scorers-top-real-madrid-scorer

Nocioni 15/8 (hills) Recommend £25

I am currently looking at some other specials markets as we speak and will post more if i find anything else of value.

40/1
Lithuania
2014 Fiba World Championship
Singles - Tournament Winner
1 line @ £10.00 per line
Total Stake £10.00
Potential Return £410.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000727
7/10
USA
2014 Fiba World Championship
Singles - Tournament Winner
1 line @ £50.00 per line
Total Stake £50.00
Potential Return £85.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000728

 Waiting (unmatched)
At In-PlayCancelKeep
Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
FIBA Basketball World Cup 2014
Croatia Tournament Winner    300    £5.00    
£1,495.00
Ref: 40627823129 Submitted: 12:36 29-Aug-14

Lithuania11/2Outright Without USA & Spain - 20/09/2014
Stake £25.00
Estimated Return:£162.50
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Return: £162.50

30 Aug 2014 - FIBA World Cup - Top Club Scorers - Top Real Madrid Scorer

Andres Nocioni (Argentina) @ 15/8

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £
71.75
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001091/F

30 Aug 2014 - FIBA World Cup - MVP - MVP

James Harden (USA) @ 5/1

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £
120.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001092/F


we don't have £100 for the 1/5 top American team bet. winners required first, probably....

[DungBeetle]

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1898181

Following on from the big arb on ukip winning a seat at the next general election, Paddy have made ukip 1/4 tories 10/3 to win the by election at Clacton (i can't find any other prices for this on oddschecker etc from other firms - if anyone sees any can they post links on here).  I assume this price would be similar for the general election next year so the 2/5 with Coral for ukip to win ANY seat at the next GE looks huge value given they will have numerous other live chances outside of Clacton.

1/4 for UKIP to win by-election is too short surely.  Who knows how electorate will react?

It is very, very difficult for a sitting government to win a by election.  They generally need a very big majority to hold a seat and winning one from another party is very rare indeed (think the last time it happened was in 1982 during the Falklands which was a fairly unique case) so basically the swing at by elections away from governments is generally very high and if anything it is getting higher.  This kinda reminds me of the Bradford by election a few years ago where Galloway won his seat and whilst 1/4 may be on the short side I would definitely be a backer at 1/2.  That doesn't mean, however, that the 2/5 UKIP to win any seat at the general election is value.  I think the likeliest scenario is that UKIP win this and then lose this seat at the general election.  In fact with anything less than an 8k majority here I would bet on the Tories at a fairly short price in this seat next time out because protest votes don't really happen at general elections or certainly not to the same extent as they do in by elections anyway.

But surely the point is that it is already a Tory seat even though the candidate has changed.  Don't underestimate how much tribal Tory voters detest Miliband however much they like UKIP.  I don't think UKIP will get the swing required personally would never back at 1/2 although I agree they should be favs.

I think the key thing you are missing is the UKIP guy in Clacton when he stood for the tories gained a lot of respect locally and it must be assumed a lot of his tory voters will switch as they were voting for him personally rather than just the tory party. 

Yeah I can see that point of view.  Just can't believe he is that much of a political superstar and carries that much loyalty that voters will just vote for him irrespective of which party he represents, so much so to make him a 1/4 shot.  Maybe that particular electorate are furious with Cameron.  I suppose he must have done some kind of research into that side of things before taking such a drastic step.

[scotty2hatty]

Love that he's got an alcopop