Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

Hey guys, haven't really been around much recently. In the last few weeks I've changed job (now working for Jaguar Land Rover rather than Williams), moved house and bought a new car! Busy busy! Nevertheless, here are my bets for the Italian GP this weekend:

Betfair
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 23/10 - recommend £5. I stick to what I said ahead of the Belgian GP, any price above evens on either Hamilton or Rosberg is value, 23/10 is madness - get on it!

Bet Victor
W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 9/4 - recommend £5. Williams will be strong and 9/4 represents value, just. The threat to this bet is Red Bull, but the Monza circuit has long straights and will favour the Mercedes powered cars in a big way, probably more than at any other point during the entire season. Massa would also be a concern, but Valtteri does appear to just have the edge on his team mate consistently this season.

PaddyPower
Group B (VET/MAS/ALO/RAI): Felipe Massa @ 9/4 - recommend £5. As above really, Williams will be strong and Felipe has a great chance of beating Red Bull/Ferrari this weekend. It's Monza so a better chance for him than at any other stage this season.

I know Tighty likes the minimum bet size here to be £5, but I would like to recommend the following £1 stabs also:

Race Winner: Daniel Ricciardo @ 17/1 with Betfair
Race Winner: Valtteri Bottas @ 16/1 with Betfair
Fastest Lap: Nico Hulkenberg @ 40/1 with Bwin
Fastest Lap: Sergio Perez @ 40/1 with Bwin

Will probably make more suggestions as the weekend progresses :-)

I won't be doing £1 bets.

£5 minimum. really it should be a higher minimum than that in terms of portfolio construction

i can scale up, make the £1 bets into fivers and increase the fiver bets

or i can just do the fiver bets

up to you, once prices come back up after FP1

Surprised you said no to the £1 bets, especially given those prices - but fair enough!

Updated bets to place after FP1 & FP2:

Betfair
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 9/4 - recommend £5, same reasoning as above!

Bwin
W/O Mercedes: Fernando Alonso @ 7/1 - changed this from Valtteri Bottas as the Williams looked fairly lack-lusture and the Ferrari looked very strong, albeit on low fuel. Plus, if anyone can drag out a podium at Monza, it's Alonso in his Ferrari! Surprised this price is still 7/1 given yesterday, I would have gone 4/1 personally. Will be interesting to see if the Ferrari can cope with the power of the Mercedes engined cars down the long straights over a race distance. £5.

Bet366 in a leap year
Group D (KYV, VER, GRO, MAL): Daniil Kyvat (Tor) @ 6/5 - The Lotus car was horrible yesterday, and Daniil easily had the speed over his team mate. Usually I don't bet on things at a price like this, but for them to still be offering more than evens is insanity in my opinion - recommend £15.

William Hill
Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 17/10 - Consistent pace yesterday, and he has the Mercedes engine - he'll be very hard to overtake during the race - recommend £5.

[TightEnd]

Hey guys, haven't really been around much recently. In the last few weeks I've changed job (now working for Jaguar Land Rover rather than Williams), moved house and bought a new car! Busy busy! Nevertheless, here are my bets for the Italian GP this weekend:

Betfair
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 23/10 - recommend £5. I stick to what I said ahead of the Belgian GP, any price above evens on either Hamilton or Rosberg is value, 23/10 is madness - get on it!

Bet Victor
W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 9/4 - recommend £5. Williams will be strong and 9/4 represents value, just. The threat to this bet is Red Bull, but the Monza circuit has long straights and will favour the Mercedes powered cars in a big way, probably more than at any other point during the entire season. Massa would also be a concern, but Valtteri does appear to just have the edge on his team mate consistently this season.

PaddyPower
Group B (VET/MAS/ALO/RAI): Felipe Massa @ 9/4 - recommend £5. As above really, Williams will be strong and Felipe has a great chance of beating Red Bull/Ferrari this weekend. It's Monza so a better chance for him than at any other stage this season.

I know Tighty likes the minimum bet size here to be £5, but I would like to recommend the following £1 stabs also:

Race Winner: Daniel Ricciardo @ 17/1 with Betfair
Race Winner: Valtteri Bottas @ 16/1 with Betfair
Fastest Lap: Nico Hulkenberg @ 40/1 with Bwin
Fastest Lap: Sergio Perez @ 40/1 with Bwin

Will probably make more suggestions as the weekend progresses :-)

I won't be doing £1 bets.

£5 minimum. really it should be a higher minimum than that in terms of portfolio construction

i can scale up, make the £1 bets into fivers and increase the fiver bets

or i can just do the fiver bets

up to you, once prices come back up after FP1

Surprised you said no to the £1 bets, especially given those prices - but fair enough!

Updated bets to place after FP1 & FP2:

Betfair
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 9/4 - recommend £5, same reasoning as above!

Bwin
W/O Mercedes: Fernando Alonso @ 7/1 - changed this from Valtteri Bottas as the Williams looked fairly lack-lusture and the Ferrari looked very strong. Plus, if anyone can drag out a podium at Monza, it's Alonso in his Ferrari! Surprised this price is still 7/1 given yesterday, I would have gone 4/1 personally. Will be interesting to see if the Ferrari can cope with the power of the Mercedes engined cars down the long straights over a race distance. £5.

Bet366 in a leap year
Group D (KYV, VER, GRO, MAL): Daniil Kyvat (Tor) @ 6/5 - The Lotus car was horrible yesterday, and Daniil easily had the speed over his team mate. Usually I don't bet on things at a price like this, but for them to still be offering more than evens is insanity in my opinion - recommend £15.

William Hill
Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 17/10 - Consistent pace yesterday, and he has the Mercedes engine - he'll be very hard to overtake during the race - recommend £5.

£1 bets, its all admin/time/clicks and hassle. As has been said several times, £5 minimum, and really the minimum should be bigger than that. thanks

the Wlliams were running heavy fuel yesterday and the Ferrari very light (at home, PR, important to show well) so the FP1/FP2 results have an artificial element to them?

why would you jump ship off williams in the light of this? 

[horseplayer]

Word is that the Mario story was made up. As it was him though it's entirely believable!

It was a 50/50 challenge both fell over and nothing really happened

Good to see the Mail already gunning for him though!

[horseplayer]

Peter

If you think the bigger priced selections are bets no reason why you shouldn't be having just as much or even more on them than the shorter price selections.

Having such a small amount on a bigger priced selection makes little sense, if you think the price is to big you should be pushing that edge not betting minimum stakes

[horseplayer]

Cant believe its been a year since Gordon lord Byron romped home in the mud at Haydock...... Great memories

Was on the morning line today and im pretty sure he winked at the camera

[Peter-27]

Hey guys, haven't really been around much recently. In the last few weeks I've changed job (now working for Jaguar Land Rover rather than Williams), moved house and bought a new car! Busy busy! Nevertheless, here are my bets for the Italian GP this weekend:

Betfair
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 23/10 - recommend £5. I stick to what I said ahead of the Belgian GP, any price above evens on either Hamilton or Rosberg is value, 23/10 is madness - get on it!

Bet Victor
W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 9/4 - recommend £5. Williams will be strong and 9/4 represents value, just. The threat to this bet is Red Bull, but the Monza circuit has long straights and will favour the Mercedes powered cars in a big way, probably more than at any other point during the entire season. Massa would also be a concern, but Valtteri does appear to just have the edge on his team mate consistently this season.

PaddyPower
Group B (VET/MAS/ALO/RAI): Felipe Massa @ 9/4 - recommend £5. As above really, Williams will be strong and Felipe has a great chance of beating Red Bull/Ferrari this weekend. It's Monza so a better chance for him than at any other stage this season.

I know Tighty likes the minimum bet size here to be £5, but I would like to recommend the following £1 stabs also:

Race Winner: Daniel Ricciardo @ 17/1 with Betfair
Race Winner: Valtteri Bottas @ 16/1 with Betfair
Fastest Lap: Nico Hulkenberg @ 40/1 with Bwin
Fastest Lap: Sergio Perez @ 40/1 with Bwin

Will probably make more suggestions as the weekend progresses :-)

I won't be doing £1 bets.

£5 minimum. really it should be a higher minimum than that in terms of portfolio construction

i can scale up, make the £1 bets into fivers and increase the fiver bets

or i can just do the fiver bets

up to you, once prices come back up after FP1

Surprised you said no to the £1 bets, especially given those prices - but fair enough!

Updated bets to place after FP1 & FP2:

Betfair
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 9/4 - recommend £5, same reasoning as above!

Bwin
W/O Mercedes: Fernando Alonso @ 7/1 - changed this from Valtteri Bottas as the Williams looked fairly lack-lusture and the Ferrari looked very strong. Plus, if anyone can drag out a podium at Monza, it's Alonso in his Ferrari! Surprised this price is still 7/1 given yesterday, I would have gone 4/1 personally. Will be interesting to see if the Ferrari can cope with the power of the Mercedes engined cars down the long straights over a race distance. £5.

Bet366 in a leap year
Group D (KYV, VER, GRO, MAL): Daniil Kyvat (Tor) @ 6/5 - The Lotus car was horrible yesterday, and Daniil easily had the speed over his team mate. Usually I don't bet on things at a price like this, but for them to still be offering more than evens is insanity in my opinion - recommend £15.

William Hill
Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 17/10 - Consistent pace yesterday, and he has the Mercedes engine - he'll be very hard to overtake during the race - recommend £5.

£1 bets, its all admin/time/clicks and hassle. As has been said several times, £5 minimum, and really the minimum should be bigger than that. thanks

the Wlliams were running heavy fuel yesterday and the Ferrari very light (at home, PR, important to show well) so the FP1/FP2 results have an artificial element to them?

why would you jump ship off williams in the light of this? 

I guess that makes sense!

Because I don't believe that Williams we're sandbagging (carrying extra fuel) to the extent of half a second slower than Rosberg (in FP2) - Mercedes were also sandbagging to a certain extent. I may re-suggest the Bottas bet depending on how FP3 goes, but for now I'm happy with my above suggestions and recommend they are placed before FP3 :-)

[TightEnd]

Daniil Kvyat set to become first driver to take a 10-place grid penalty for a sixth turbo engine after Toro Rosso install new unit overnight.

So i left that one

Vergne at 6/4+ has to be a huge price given TR v Lotus and the Kvyat problem

Having to be quick Peter as news is breaking, if you don't want this down under you let me know

I got £3.08 sigh Bet365 at 13/8

if anyone can get on would take whay you can get at 13/8

--

William Hill

Single

06 Sep 2014 - Italian F1 Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish - Top 6 Finish

Jenson Button @ 17/10

Stake : £5.00
Estimated Returns : £
13.50
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001093/F

--

Betfair

 Placed (matched)
Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
Italian GP
Nico Rosberg Winner    3.45    £5.00    
£12.23
Ref: 40880068174M Matched: 09:18 06-Sep-14

--

bwin

9/6/2014 10:23 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Italy - Race (Race winner without Mercedes)
    Alonso
    ?

   5.00    8.00

[Peter-27]

Peter

If you think the bigger priced selections are bets no reason why you shouldn't be having just as much or even more on them than the shorter price selections.

Having such a small amount on a bigger priced selection makes little sense, if you think the price is to big you should be pushing that edge not betting minimum stakes

Hmmm, I see what you're saying, but the way I see it - if there is value in a 40/1 bet, but the likelihood of it coming off is still unlikely (let's say around 25/1), then I'm not willing to risk that much on something that is still unlikely.

I thought I'd suggest it anyway, no harm in trying

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/group-d

13/8 Vergne

Kvyat has a 10 place grid penalty

as above, anyone who can get on and spare some.....

[TightEnd]

Peter

If you think the bigger priced selections are bets no reason why you shouldn't be having just as much or even more on them than the shorter price selections.

Having such a small amount on a bigger priced selection makes little sense, if you think the price is to big you should be pushing that edge not betting minimum stakes

Hmmm, I see what you're saying, but the way I see it - if there is value in a 40/1 bet, but the likelihood of it coming off is still unlikely (let's say around 25/1), then I'm not willing to risk that much on something that is still unlikely.

I thought I'd suggest it anyway, no harm in trying

it's about value NOT about the likelihood of it coming off.

A 100/1 bet that should be 50/1 is perfectly fine with the sort of rationales you present

stake it correctly and results will take care of themselves, long term

[TightEnd]

[Peter-27]

Daniil Kvyat set to become first driver to take a 10-place grid penalty for a sixth turbo engine after Toro Rosso install new unit overnight.

So i left that one

Vergne at 6/4+ has to be a huge price given TR v Lotus and the Kvyat problem

Having to be quick Peter as news is breaking, if you don't want this down under you let me know

I got £3.08 sigh Bet365 at 13/8

if anyone can get on would take whay you can get at 13/8

--

William Hill

Single

06 Sep 2014 - Italian F1 Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish - Top 6 Finish

Jenson Button @ 17/10

Stake : £5.00
Estimated Returns : £
13.50
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001093/F

--

Betfair

 Placed (matched)
Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
Italian GP
Nico Rosberg Winner    3.45    £5.00    
£12.23
Ref: 40880068174M Matched: 09:18 06-Sep-14

--

bwin

9/6/2014 10:23 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Italy - Race (Race winner without Mercedes)
    Alonso
    ?

   5.00    8.00

What an annoying penalty to happen around 10 minutes after I bet on Kvyat ..

The Vergne bet is fine, but actually, my money is still on Kvyat. He has half a second per lap on Vergne, even starting 10 places behind (worst case scenario), I still think he'd beat his team mate over a race distance - especially if we saw a safety car.

I suggest £10 on Kvyat at evens.

[TightEnd]

Cant believe its been a year since Gordon lord Byron romped home in the mud at Haydock...... Great memories

Was on the morning line today and im pretty sure he winked at the camera

good memories for the thread that one

looks a very tough punting race today doesn't it?

[horseplayer]

Cant believe its been a year since Gordon lord Byron romped home in the mud at Haydock...... Great memories

Was on the morning line today and im pretty sure he winked at the camera

good memories for the thread that one

looks a very tough punting race today doesn't it?

Yep one to watch or record in my case

[horseplayer]

Blackpool have lined up Owen Coyle to replace Riga.....

Christ