Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Daniil Kvyat set to become first driver to take a 10-place grid penalty for a sixth turbo engine after Toro Rosso install new unit overnight.

So i left that one

Vergne at 6/4+ has to be a huge price given TR v Lotus and the Kvyat problem

Having to be quick Peter as news is breaking, if you don't want this down under you let me know

I got £3.08 sigh Bet365 at 13/8

if anyone can get on would take whay you can get at 13/8

--

William Hill

Single

06 Sep 2014 - Italian F1 Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish - Top 6 Finish

Jenson Button @ 17/10

Stake : £5.00
Estimated Returns : £
13.50
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001093/F

--

Betfair

 Placed (matched)
Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
Italian GP
Nico Rosberg Winner    3.45    £5.00    
£12.23
Ref: 40880068174M Matched: 09:18 06-Sep-14

--

bwin

9/6/2014 10:23 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Italy - Race (Race winner without Mercedes)
    Alonso
    ?

   5.00    8.00

What an annoying penalty to happen around 10 minutes after I bet on Kvyat ..

The Vergne bet is fine, but actually, my money is still on Kvyat. He has half a second per lap on Vergne, even starting 10 places behind (worst case scenario), I still think he'd beat his team mate over a race distance - especially if we saw a safety car.

I suggest £10 on Kvyat at evens.

Might that just be variance?  There isn't that much between them on past results.  

Tighty I can give you a tenner at 13/8 on Vergne.  

[TightEnd]

Daniil Kvyat set to become first driver to take a 10-place grid penalty for a sixth turbo engine after Toro Rosso install new unit overnight.

So i left that one

Vergne at 6/4+ has to be a huge price given TR v Lotus and the Kvyat problem

Having to be quick Peter as news is breaking, if you don't want this down under you let me know

I got £3.08 sigh Bet365 at 13/8

if anyone can get on would take whay you can get at 13/8

--

William Hill

Single

06 Sep 2014 - Italian F1 Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish - Top 6 Finish

Jenson Button @ 17/10

Stake : £5.00
Estimated Returns : £
13.50
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001093/F

--

Betfair

 Placed (matched)
Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
Italian GP
Nico Rosberg Winner    3.45    £5.00    
£12.23
Ref: 40880068174M Matched: 09:18 06-Sep-14

--

bwin

9/6/2014 10:23 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Italy - Race (Race winner without Mercedes)
    Alonso
    ?

   5.00    8.00

What an annoying penalty to happen around 10 minutes after I bet on Kvyat ..

The Vergne bet is fine, but actually, my money is still on Kvyat. He has half a second per lap on Vergne, even starting 10 places behind (worst case scenario), I still think he'd beat his team mate over a race distance - especially if we saw a safety car.

I suggest £10 on Kvyat at evens.

Might that just be variance?  There isn't that much between them on past results. 

Tighty I can give you a tenner at 13/8 on Vergne. 

done thanks

peter can have the £4.14 i got on Kvyat at 6/5 before i saw the news

shoot-out!

[tikay]

"....-£20 Adageo Bob out of the greyhound champion stakes. Adageo to be renamed adagio because it was too ad agio. Perhaps not much demand for Italian/Latinate wordplay on here, but there you go....."

Where are Tal or Jen when we need them?

[horseplayer]

Woooosh!

[tikay]

Peter

If you think the bigger priced selections are bets no reason why you shouldn't be having just as much or even more on them than the shorter price selections.

Having such a small amount on a bigger priced selection makes little sense, if you think the price is to big you should be pushing that edge not betting minimum stakes

Hmmm, I see what you're saying, but the way I see it - if there is value in a 40/1 bet, but the likelihood of it coming off is still unlikely (let's say around 25/1), then I'm not willing to risk that much on something that is still unlikely.

I thought I'd suggest it anyway, no harm in trying

Always remember Peter - we don't look for winners, we look for VALUE.

We might think, say, Arsenal should & will win today, but we will back the other Team if Arsenals's price is too short, even if we think Arsenal will win. 

The Pros here even flip-flop - start off by suggesting we back Arsenal, then, if the price shortens too much, back the other team. VALUE.

We didn't lose nearly £800 in August by looking for winners.....

PS - Keep the F1 stuff coming. It's not just about Fred, other people like to do these bets, too.

[Tal]

"....-£20 Adageo Bob out of the greyhound champion stakes. Adageo to be renamed adagio because it was too ad agio. Perhaps not much demand for Italian/Latinate wordplay on here, but there you go....."

Where are Tal or Jen when we need them?

Ha! Very good.

[tikay]

Woooosh!

Wow, what a memory that day was.

Pretty sure Tighty & I were up at the Newcastle SPT that day, & I snuck away briefly from my onerous workload to pop into the Ladbrokes round the corner from Aspers to watch that race.

Think it was the first time I'd been in a betting shop for 30 years or more, & I've not been in one since as it happens. What depressing places. Was pretty happy that day though.

Think Chompy lost his nerve, & we laid a lump off?

[Peter-27]

it's about value NOT about the likelihood of it coming off.

A 100/1 bet that should be 50/1 is perfectly fine with the sort of rationales you present

stake it correctly and results will take care of themselves, long term

Always remember Peter - we don't look for winners, we look for VALUE.

We might think, say, Arsenal should & will win today, but we will back the other Team if Arsenals's price is too short, even if we think Arsenal will win.  

The Pros here even flip-flop - start off by suggesting we back Arsenal, then, if the price shortens too much, back the other team. VALUE.

We didn't lose nearly £800 in August by looking for winners.....

PS - Keep the F1 stuff coming. It's not just about Fred, other people like to do these bets, too.

Couldn't agree more with these two comments. However, I am also aware that this is not my money I am staking and so I'm only interested in betting on value spots that I believe are likely to happen rather than value spots that are unlikely to happen. I think it should be a balancing act between the two really, it's certainly working for me so far, albeit with a small sample size. It's not my money, so I'm being cautious with my suggestions

Daniil Kvyat set to become first driver to take a 10-place grid penalty for a sixth turbo engine after Toro Rosso install new unit overnight.

So i left that one

Vergne at 6/4+ has to be a huge price given TR v Lotus and the Kvyat problem

Having to be quick Peter as news is breaking, if you don't want this down under you let me know

I got £3.08 sigh Bet365 at 13/8

if anyone can get on would take whay you can get at 13/8

--

William Hill

Single

06 Sep 2014 - Italian F1 Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish - Top 6 Finish

Jenson Button @ 17/10

Stake : £5.00
Estimated Returns : £
13.50
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001093/F

--

Betfair

 Placed (matched)
Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
Italian GP
Nico Rosberg Winner    3.45    £5.00    
£12.23
Ref: 40880068174M Matched: 09:18 06-Sep-14

--

bwin

9/6/2014 10:23 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Italy - Race (Race winner without Mercedes)
    Alonso
    ?

   5.00    8.00

What an annoying penalty to happen around 10 minutes after I bet on Kvyat ..

The Vergne bet is fine, but actually, my money is still on Kvyat. He has half a second per lap on Vergne, even starting 10 places behind (worst case scenario), I still think he'd beat his team mate over a race distance - especially if we saw a safety car.

I suggest £10 on Kvyat at evens.

Might that just be variance?  There isn't that much between them on past results. 

Tighty I can give you a tenner at 13/8 on Vergne. 

It is possible, but on a circuit like this if you're slower than your team mate in FP1 & FP2, chances are you will be slower for the whole weekend. Very difficult for drivers to find time here, it's very much a car-based track. Seems clear to me the Kvyat just has superior speed here, going to be interesting for sure!

[tikay]

"....-£20 Adageo Bob out of the greyhound champion stakes. Adageo to be renamed adagio because it was too ad agio. Perhaps not much demand for Italian/Latinate wordplay on here, but there you go....."

Where are Tal or Jen when we need them?

Ha! Very good.

Thanks to google I learn "ad agio" means "at ease".

But even better, how about this for stunning name punnage.....

"Adagio" is a tea supplier.

http://www.adagio.com/

[horseplayer]

Yep probably Chompys fault

Guaranteed a 0-0 at Posh today, even though the 5/6 BTTS looks a gift at current prices

[Ironside]

it's about value NOT about the likelihood of it coming off.

A 100/1 bet that should be 50/1 is perfectly fine with the sort of rationales you present

stake it correctly and results will take care of themselves, long term

Always remember Peter - we don't look for winners, we look for VALUE.

We might think, say, Arsenal should & will win today, but we will back the other Team if Arsenals's price is too short, even if we think Arsenal will win. 

The Pros here even flip-flop - start off by suggesting we back Arsenal, then, if the price shortens too much, back the other team. VALUE.

We didn't lose nearly £800 in August by looking for winners.....

PS - Keep the F1 stuff coming. It's not just about Fred, other people like to do these bets, too.

Couldn't agree more with these two comments. However, I am also aware that this is not my money I am staking and so I'm only interested in betting on value spots that I believe are likely to happen rather than value spots that are unlikely to happen. I think it should be a balancing act between the two really, it's certainly working for me so far, albeit with a small sample size. It's not my money, so I'm being cautious with my suggestions

Daniil Kvyat set to become first driver to take a 10-place grid penalty for a sixth turbo engine after Toro Rosso install new unit overnight.

So i left that one

Vergne at 6/4+ has to be a huge price given TR v Lotus and the Kvyat problem

Having to be quick Peter as news is breaking, if you don't want this down under you let me know

I got £3.08 sigh Bet365 at 13/8

if anyone can get on would take whay you can get at 13/8

--

William Hill

Single

06 Sep 2014 - Italian F1 Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish - Top 6 Finish

Jenson Button @ 17/10

Stake : £5.00
Estimated Returns : £
13.50
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001093/F

--

Betfair

 Placed (matched)
Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
Italian GP
Nico Rosberg Winner    3.45    £5.00    
£12.23
Ref: 40880068174M Matched: 09:18 06-Sep-14

--

bwin

9/6/2014 10:23 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Italy - Race (Race winner without Mercedes)
    Alonso
    ?

   5.00    8.00

What an annoying penalty to happen around 10 minutes after I bet on Kvyat ..

The Vergne bet is fine, but actually, my money is still on Kvyat. He has half a second per lap on Vergne, even starting 10 places behind (worst case scenario), I still think he'd beat his team mate over a race distance - especially if we saw a safety car.

I suggest £10 on Kvyat at evens.

Might that just be variance?  There isn't that much between them on past results. 

Tighty I can give you a tenner at 13/8 on Vergne. 

It is possible, but on a circuit like this if you're slower than your team mate in FP1 & FP2, chances are you will be slower for the whole weekend. Very difficult for drivers to find time here, it's very much a car-based track. Seems clear to me the Kvyat just has superior speed here, going to be interesting for sure!

just put a 0 at the end of your bets and Fred will be happy

[horseplayer]

"....-£20 Adageo Bob out of the greyhound champion stakes. Adageo to be renamed adagio because it was too ad agio. Perhaps not much demand for Italian/Latinate wordplay on here, but there you go....."

Where are Tal or Jen when we need them?

Ha! Very good.

Thanks to google I learn "ad agio" means "at ease".

But even better, how about this for stunning name punnage.....

"Adagio" is a tea supplier.

http://www.adagio.com/

Adagio was a Stoute horse about 10 years ago? Very promising won the craven then never recovered. Got sold to America for silly money and was last all three starts over there including being beaten in a maiden claimer (albeit a rich one)

http://www.newmarketracecourses.co.uk/about-the-home-of-racing/latest-news/2007/april/adagio-leaves-stoute-targeting-six-of-the-best/

[tikay]

"....-£20 Adageo Bob out of the greyhound champion stakes. Adageo to be renamed adagio because it was too ad agio. Perhaps not much demand for Italian/Latinate wordplay on here, but there you go....."

Where are Tal or Jen when we need them?

Ha! Very good.

Thanks to google I learn "ad agio" means "at ease".

But even better, how about this for stunning name punnage.....

"Adagio" is a tea supplier.

http://www.adagio.com/

Adagio was a Stoute horse about 10 years ago? Very promising won the craven then never recovered. Got sold to America for silly money and was last all three starts over there including being beaten in a maiden claimer (albeit a rich one)

http://www.newmarketracecourses.co.uk/about-the-home-of-racing/latest-news/2007/april/adagio-leaves-stoute-targeting-six-of-the-best/

Presumably so named (Adagio as in "at ease") because the sire was Grand Lodge.

[horseplayer]

Lovely

Pretty sure i had a fair bet on that for the guineas at silly prices just when i was getting into racing, more value pie then

[Tal]

Adagio is a musical instruction, meaning slowly. Samuel Barber's Adagio for Strings is a fairly famous piece of classical music (so famous even I've heard of it). William Orbit and DJ Tiësto each did a dance music version of it, about ten years apart.

The expression ad agio literally means at ease, so that's where the musical contraction will have come from.


Rosberg out of Q3. Possible gear box change for a five place grid penalty Do we get on Lewis now?