Tips for Tikay

[millidonk]

Dimitrov  v Anderson not going great so far, 6 v 4 in 1st and 1 - 0 up in 2nd. GL us. Come on Dimitrov!!

[tikay]

Taken from 3G's blog.

Thursday, June 14th 2012

Double bogey at 1 and 3 and at that time the 2 putts for par at the 4th were very important. From there at +4, I had 3 birdies and 1 bogey at the 16. Didn't drive the ball quite well, but we fixed it at the practice at the end of the day. For lower trajectories, Mich corrected my posture with a need of being closer to the ball to play the kind of shots I wanted...
Wake up call for Friday's round will be at  5.00... Play at 7.22 AM.


He seems to have had a reasonable start. Do you have him and McDowell e/w?

We have McDowell £5 EW @ 80/1, & 3G £5 WIN on Betfair @ 220.

Guess if Colsaerts made a run at it, I could do that some of that trading stuff.

[horseplayer]

any views on the possession market this evening?

vc have england under 53.5% at 4-5 (was 5-6 yesterday) i still think this is slightly to big

Ok we were playing france but only achieved 40% my worry is sweden seemed to revert to type against the ukraine rather than the more passing style they used in qualifying?

[nirvana]

PS - Glad it is "related contigency", I'll be honest, I have to be careful with Fred Money, but I've done the 8/11 one "off-thread".

Whats the Fred money reference ?

Thread Money! The Thread Bankroll.

It was me trying to be cool.

FAIL.

I have the Thread Spreadsheet, thus "Thread Money", but I do some stuff myself, which is seperate, of course.

How much is my share of thread money worth at the mo. I read it religiously every day. Very interesting stuff on here

[millidonk]

Tennis has been interrupted. I thought phoning through a bomb scare might give our guy some time to get his head together.

[redarmi]

I think if you want to bet over bookings the you have to go with the betfair market.  I am not sufficiently versed on how the distribution of bookings changes over the course of the game but logic would suggest that they should increase fairly significantly as the game goes on so I don't think that the under 27 minutes would be better.  Like Bobbys bet.  We have three aerial threats in Carroll, Terry and Lescott and they all match up well in terms of height with their two central defenders Melberg and Graqvist so assume either Toivonen or Ibrahimovic will have to take up the other one.   Apparently England were practising crossing into Walcott and Welbeck yesterday too which can only add to the value.

[bobby1]

you have to hand it to Paddy Power Tony. Bendtner got into trouble for flashing his Paddy Power pants after scoring the other day?

[scotty2hatty]

Spain Croatia...2-2 draw or higher scoring draw sends both through

Bet slip at the ready........

I'm a little confused, what if Italy beat Ireland by more than two goals? Wouldn't they be through irrespective of the Spain/Croatia score?

[millidonk]

Oioiiiiiiiiiiiiii. Even by my limited maths ability I think the tennis bet can't lose! Nice one Mere you abs hero.

[Graham C]

Tennis has been interrupted. I thought phoning through a bomb scare might give our guy some time to get his head together.

Nice call Milli, well played Mere

[TheChipPrince]

Spain Croatia...2-2 draw or higher scoring draw sends both through

Bet slip at the ready........

I'm a little confused, what if Italy beat Ireland by more than two goals? Wouldn't they be through irrespective of the Spain/Croatia score?

European Championship rules state that in the event of a tie, goal difference then goals scored separates the teams – but only between those teams that are level on points.

[ACE2M]

I think if you want to bet over bookings the you have to go with the betfair market.  I am not sufficiently versed on how the distribution of bookings changes over the course of the game but logic would suggest that they should increase fairly significantly as the game goes on so I don't think that the under 27 minutes would be better.  Like Bobbys bet.  We have three aerial threats in Carroll, Terry and Lescott and they all match up well in terms of height with their two central defenders Melberg and Graqvist so assume either Toivonen or Ibrahimovic will have to take up the other one.   Apparently England were practising crossing into Walcott and Welbeck yesterday too which can only add to the value.

Since August 2010

Parker has 11 yellows

Time distributions -
1st half = 5
2nd Half = 6

10 min period of matches -
2 in 20 - 30 mins
1 in 30 - 40 mins
1 in 40 - 50 mins
1 in 50 - 60 mins
2 in 70 - 80 mins
3 in 80mins+


Ashley Cole has 15 Yellows

1st half = 4
2nd half = 11

10 min period of matches -
1 in 20 - 30 mins
1 in 30 - 40 mins
2 in 40 - 50 mins
2 in 60 - 70 mins
4 in 70 - 80 mins
4 in 80mins+

This is a typical distribution across more players than this shows, trending towards later in the game obviously.

Only added as i had the data because Tikay is making me justify my banzai!

There you go tikay - scott parker is accross the board for first booking and Cashley is 14s despite being more booking prone although they do tend to be later in the game. Coupled with my expert of analysis of he's likely to clatter ibra early and the ref is card happy, i think we're getting some value on the banzai.



Thats club football only btw.

[scotty2hatty]

Spain Croatia...2-2 draw or higher scoring draw sends both through

Bet slip at the ready........

I'm a little confused, what if Italy beat Ireland by more than two goals? Wouldn't they be through irrespective of the Spain/Croatia score?

European Championship rules state that in the event of a tie, goal difference then goals scored separates the teams – but only between those teams that are level on points.

Got that bit but, for example, if the games finished -2C and It3-0Ir wouldn't the table go from....

Group C
P    Team    Pl    W    D    L    GD    Pts
1    Spain    2    1    1    0    4    4
2    Croatia    2    1    1    0    2    4
3    Italy    2    0    2    0    0    2
4    Rep Ireland    2    0    0    2    -6    0

to.....

Group C
P    Team    Pl    W    D    L    GD    Pts
1    Spain    3    1    2    0    4    5
2    Italy            3      1    2    0    3    5
3    Croatia    3    1    2    0    2    5
4    Rep Ireland    3    0    0    3    -9    0

[ACE2M]

They said on commentary last night its head to heads?

[scotty2hatty]

They said on commentary last night its head to heads?

Was a draw anyway, so doesn't change the above.