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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16583117 times)
Nico29
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« Reply #88380 on: October 06, 2014, 04:35:54 PM »

For someone who seems to have a hamstring problem each week I wouldn't be rushing to back odds on myself.

Also still remember Negredo setting the world on fire b4 barely scoring again.

I just think it's all in the price.
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redarmi
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« Reply #88381 on: October 06, 2014, 04:53:01 PM »

For discussion

Context

Costa has scored 9 league goals in 7 games

He has converted 47% of his chances so far

He has any three of six-seven top midfielders to supply those chances

No sign of rotation to Remy in League games (yet?)


B3654 25-1 Chelsea to go through the season unbeaten

Same firm 3-1 Chelsea to remain unbeaten in league at home this season

Same firm 8/13 Costa to score 24 or more league goals this season

5/6 Golden Boot Premier League (Aguero 4/1)


Injury allowing, aren't the latter two prices too long?



I was looking at his stats on squawka the other day and they seem fairly unsustainable.  So far this year his shot accuracy is 84%.  To put that into context the very best players in the league (Suarez, RvP etc) normally shoot 50-55%.  Of course that doesn't mean that he sn't a good bet....if he kept these stats up he would literally be a certainty barring injury (which is Dom says is a pretty big risk with him) but he should regress a bit from now I would think and he would be doing stuff that has never been done before is he converted at this rate going forward.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #88382 on: October 06, 2014, 06:31:07 PM »

corroboration

"The Redskins have 11 sacks as a team. 10 came against Henne, and they have one in their other three games. Russell Wilson is a top-shelf QB1 in re-draft leagues. ... Wilson's Weeks 1-3 target distribution: Percy Harvin 17; Doug Baldwin 16; Jermaine Kearse and Marshawn Lynch 10; Zach Miller and Bryan Walters 7; Ricardo Lockette 5; Robert Turbin 3; Luke Willson 1. ... Although Harvin's target totals have underwhelmed, he's averaging seven touches per game and consistently being schemed into space by OC Darrell Bevell. This is a potential blowup spot for Harvin. DeAngelo Hall-less Washington is terrible throughout the secondary and none of the Redskins' linebackers can cover Harvin."

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/49119/179/matchup-seahawks--redskins


Seattle @ Washington

    £5
    10/1
    £55.00
    Percy Harvin
    First Touchdown Scorer

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000100

Event Information:    Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-10-07 01:30:00
Market:    Receiving Yards - P Harvin
Selection:    Over @ 10/11
Handicap:    +57.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000748
Placed at:    18:04 06/10/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £22.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £22.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £22.00
   
   
   £42.00

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« Reply #88383 on: October 06, 2014, 08:53:10 PM »

Anyone else notice how bad 'Listen' O'Brien is getting?

Tried to count the number of listens in an interview yesterday but actually lost count. And the number of tweaks of glasses, rubbing forehead etc... Wow

'The Lads' have really done a number on our Aiden. Will worry the poor lad into an early grave they will.
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horseplayer
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« Reply #88384 on: October 06, 2014, 09:13:32 PM »

Watford appear to be looking for a new manager....


again

Lee Clayton ‏@LeeClayton_  3m3 minutes ago
Breaking: Billy McKinlay to leave Watford after two (unbeaten) games! More on @MailSport soon. Crazy!
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tikay
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« Reply #88385 on: October 06, 2014, 09:26:09 PM »

Watford appear to be looking for a new manager....


again

Lee Clayton ‏@LeeClayton_  3m3 minutes ago
Breaking: Billy McKinlay to leave Watford after two (unbeaten) games! More on @MailSport soon. Crazy!

You gotta be kidding?
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« Reply #88386 on: October 06, 2014, 09:43:02 PM »

Watford appear to be looking for a new manager....


again

Lee Clayton ‏@LeeClayton_  3m3 minutes ago
Breaking: Billy McKinlay to leave Watford after two (unbeaten) games! More on @MailSport soon. Crazy!

You gotta be kidding?

Appears not

Elton John available? its a little bit funny...
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a.sparrow
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« Reply #88387 on: October 06, 2014, 11:01:59 PM »

Monday night football tonight

Washington at Seattle

Seattle are at -7

top 3 NFL side, big MNF advantage

Won 8 straight on MNF & their 71.4% all-time winning percentage (20-8) is best in NFL


my interest as usual is the sub markets

Washington lack athletes in the secondary, and will have to commit to stop Marshawn Lynch and the run (Seattle number 2 rushing offense in the league)

this will leave them in single coverage on the outside

any of these

Percy Harvin First touchdown 10-1

alternatives for FTS at a price are Baldwin or Kearse, maybe Lockette if you don't want to stock select

(the market skews because Lynch will always be a short favourite for Seattle)

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-washington-redskins/first-touchdown-scorer

Over 53.5 receiving 10/11

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-washington-redskins/total-receiving-yds-percy-harvin

Over 5.5 receptions 10/11

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-washington-redskins/total-receptions-percy-harvin

could come in

Harvin has real speed, and is fit after nearly a season and a half

In the Seahawks first two home games he had 7 receptions a time. San Diego stopped him away week 2 but they are a terrific defense. He still rolled off a 51 yard rushing touchdown on an end around, the first of the game

Here is the run http://www.seahawks.com/videos-photos/videos/Percy-Harvin-51-yard-Touchdown/9ffe82f0-6e93-4422-a7bc-6a7ae01ec597

receiving 60 yards against GB, 42 against Denver. Washington's defense is not Denver's quality


references

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/10/02/fantasy-football-slot-percy-harvin-against-weak-washington-redskins-defense/tvGvgaVOFdPrMm2X4APY5L/story.html

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000403785/article/jj-watt-percy-harvin-among-nfls-gameplanning-nightmares


He is a mismatch for this defense, should have a big night

Harvin has been boosted to 11/1 by lads.

What do you think about the Hills offer of lynch anytime and seahawks to win at evens? Any value in that at all?
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BigAdz
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« Reply #88388 on: October 07, 2014, 06:10:06 AM »

If I read it right, our man had 3.....yes 3 Touchdowns dq'd.  FFs. U gotta be kidding me?!
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« Reply #88389 on: October 07, 2014, 06:41:59 AM »

It appears so....
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Tal
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« Reply #88390 on: October 07, 2014, 07:38:55 AM »

If I read it right, our man had 3.....yes 3 Touchdowns dq'd.  FFs. U gotta be kidding me?!

Yep.

Two of them weren't anything to do with him, either (holding and unnecessary roughness penalties for fouls on one of the defensive linemen); one was his own false start.

Fair to count that as unlucky!
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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« Reply #88391 on: October 07, 2014, 09:25:30 AM »

Watford appear to be looking for a new manager....


again

Lee Clayton ‏@LeeClayton_  3m3 minutes ago
Breaking: Billy McKinlay to leave Watford after two (unbeaten) games! More on @MailSport soon. Crazy!

Watford refusing to comment, but this is being reported in a lot of mainstream outlets now.  Embarrassing.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #88392 on: October 07, 2014, 09:25:38 AM »

Daily Report

Profit on Month £88.05

Outstanding Bets £3911.26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30


a loss of £27 yesterday but to be fair it was a good one

On Harvin 1st TD and over 53 receiving yards...

"Tue, Oct 7 at 5:38am

Harvin caught 4-of-5 targets for 27 yards, adding seven yards on two carries, in Monday's 27-17 win over the Redskins. He had three potential touchdowns nullified by penalties.

Analysis: Harvin found the end zone on a 16-yard carry in the second quarter, but it was called back due to a holding penalty on LG James Carpenter. On the next snap, Harvin took a screen pass 26 yards for a touchdown, only to have it wiped out by his own false start. Early in the fourth quarter, he got wide open for a would-be 41-yard touchdown that was called back due to an unnecessary roughness penalty on Carpenter"

"“The first one I was cool with,” Harvin said. “When the second one happened, I was like, ‘Wow.’ Then then the third one happened, I just flipped my hands down. I couldn’t believe it.”

“I’ve never seen that in football,” Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman said

In between non-touchdown 2 and 3 he limped off, and after half time had to have an IV drip for severe cramp

If you are going to have a loser, do it properly I say. All three were correct calls, so them's the breaks




A quiet day yesterday

Treve relaxes at home the day after that win

 Click to see full-size image.


Billy McKinlay resigns as manager of Watford after just eight days in charge. Hasselbaink the early favourite to replace him

 Click to see full-size image.


Is this the best 8/13 shot you ever did see?

 Click to see full-size image.


good article on the baseball, and two small market teams making it to the ALCS

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/sick-of-red-sox-yankees-then-watch-orioles-royals-alcs-100614

 Click to see full-size image.


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« Reply #88393 on: October 07, 2014, 09:35:36 AM »

If you think that's bad, Coral appear to be 100/1 for San Marino to win 9-0.
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« Reply #88394 on: October 07, 2014, 09:37:59 AM »

Watford appear to be looking for a new manager....


again

Lee Clayton ‏@LeeClayton_  3m3 minutes ago
Breaking: Billy McKinlay to leave Watford after two (unbeaten) games! More on @MailSport soon. Crazy!

Watford refusing to comment, but this is being reported in a lot of mainstream outlets now.  Embarrassing.



Appears he is going to fulham
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